government: 73
opposition: 66
seats in doubt:5
Hindmarsh 1.9% ALP
Forde 4.1% ALP
Cowan 5% ALP
Capricornia 1.3% ALP
Flynn 7.3% ALP
Herbert 6.6% ALP
independent seats:
denison: Andrew Wilkie
Indi: Cathy McGowan
Kennedy: Bob Katter
Mayo: Rebekha Sharkie (team xenophon)
Melbourne: Abam Bandt (greens)
trend has been a moderate swing to labour
however last minuit postal votes tend to favour the coalition
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this is glorious. TPP is almost certainly dead in the water. It won't even pass the House let alone get to the Senate
According to the ABC website, Labor is ahead by 8 votes in Hindmarsh. The Liberals have been slowly gaining on them, so we could see it a Lib victory here. It's almost over!
my take
the government could still get their magic 76 for a majority government, that would make things fairly simple, however members would be pressured to cross the floor on local issues through the year
if they got 75, katter and mcgowie would probably form government with them because it would give them disproportionate power as indipendants
they would have to form together to block government bills (which would make them less than popular in all likelihood)
if the government only got one more seat?
holy shit it would be a circus, the government would probably try because a re-poll would almost guarantee them an election loss as the swing was labour and fine margins of government will probably hurt the governments "stick with the current mob" approach
and that's where things get really interesting, if a minority government falls apart mid term, who would win in a re-vote (vs. a re-vote straight away)
Even if the Coalition get 76 though, won't they still need to do a deal with Katter because once they put one of their own up as speaker, they will be back at 75?
There's no way in hell any independent would accept being speaker. They'd be laughed out of town by their electorate as a sellout the next time they ran for re-election
Yep. No way in hell an independent is going to be speaker.
Postal votes tend to be liberal due to demographics
I'm cautiously optimistic
in un-related news
greyhound racing just got banned in NSW
Yeah, which seems to be how the Liberals have clawed back a lot of ground gained by Labor.
Reckon we'll have a final lower house result by the end of the day?
interesting point
the chair gets to vote in the event of a tie
really this wouldn't mean much except a minor procedural delay
however what if they voted in a labout minister as the chair??
that would mean that there is no tie in the first vote, and I don't think the tie-breaking vote could be used to cause a draw
could a labour candidate simply refuse to accept the chair?
anyhow it would be seen broadly as an abuse of process by most educated voters and it's doubtful it would be a clever play
AEC are lazy cunts so who knows. I think it will be unofficially confirmed. With the media announcing it
But there will be a lot more counting for an official result with it being this close
not sure why you say that
the chair's indipendant nature could lend it'self well to an indipendant, slipper even resigned from the liberals to be more neutral
wilkie might take it
The electorate will feel cheated if their member becomes speaker. If I live in a Liberal seat, and my member becomes speaker, it's no big deal because he is part of a larger party.
If an independent becomes speaker, the issues they campaigned on become irrelevant.
>however what if they voted in a labout minister as the chair??
not going to happen
pigs will freeze over and hell will fly before that happens
>could a labour candidate simply refuse to accept the chair?
yes, absolutely
>anyhow it would be seen broadly as an abuse of process by most educated voters and it's doubtful it would be a clever play
irrelevant. One way or another, Turnbull has to make a deal with atleast one and possibly all three of Katter/McGowan/Xenophon. he knows this and that's why he is in QLD to talk to Katter today.
Katter is a lock but is no shill and will hold the government by the balls (which is why TPP is dead). McGowan and Xenophon and much more unknown quantities. McGowan may outright refuse to negotiate any deal and seeing what happened to Windsor and Oakeshott (slightly different because they backed the ALP, but still).
Wilkie will not deal with either party, period, after being burned in 2010
Greens are a lock for Labor
Xenophon said he wouldn't deal too didn't he?
So it will be Katter and maybe McGowan
Labor are looking like they would need all of the greens/indepenents and I don't see them dealing with Katter
Or Willkie for aforementioned reasons
you are probably right
pigs will freeze over and hell will fly before that happens
it would go down in history as one of the dirtiest plays in government history
would they do it normally?
not a chance, HOWEVER; what if they used it to protect themselves from someone crossing the floor, or one indipendant not towing the line
greens labour, katter liberals for sure
xenophon campaigned as being a thrid pillar, if he sided either way he would be seen as a sell out, however he might get major legislation through for his electorate (or might be critisized for passing up the chance)
Xenophon said he was open to a deal with either side and he would negotiate first with whoever won the most seats
>Xenophon said he wouldn't deal too didn't he?
no, he said he'd talk to either party
McGowan is the one who said she would do no deals
The way the postal votes are trending, Forde and Hindmarsh are looking like they'll be Liberal seats. I reckon it'll be 75-70-5, with the Xenophon candidate and Katter in a loose confidence/supply agreement. No idea what will happen with the speaker situation tho
>Work as a security guard
>Finish shift at 7am on election day
>Decide to go straight to polling station and wait because I can't be bothered stopping by home.
>Standing out the front wating in my uniform
>Some bitch with a greens poster comes up and asks me if she can hang her shit up on the fence
>Takes a second for me to realize why she was talking to me
>Tell her we can't let any more posters up
>She starts getting shitty
>I tell her to call Bruce if she's got a problem
>"Bruce?"
>"Yeah you know, Bruce"
>"....what's his number?"
>"Can't give that out sorry, you should know him"
>Gets shitty and leaves
>Some dude with a labor picket comes up next, plants it next to a liberal picket that's already there
>"Hey mate, can't put that there, you can't block the other signs"
>"Where am I supposed to put it?"
>I point over to a patch of grass furthest away from the main building
>"You can't be serious"
>"Hey I don't make the rules"
>People with pamphlets start arriving as we get closer to 8
>None of them approach me with their bullshit because they all think I'm security
>8 am comes along
>get the greasiest fucking looks when I line up to vote.
Fugg sorry
Good summation. Whatever government is formed I think we all agree it'll be skating on thin ice. I'm expecting another poll and more changes of leaders, from both sides within the next 12 months.
And thanks for the up to date count OP.
Difficult to get a handle on the Australian election from over here. Our media is using only two angles, either;
> Australia turning into S America, economy tanking, creating political instability, leading to even worsening economic outlook. Come back home kiwis, its not 1990 anymore, NZ stronk!
> or Pauline Hanson waaaaaaaaahhhhhh! Aussies are so raaaaycist. Let's all feel morally superior about ourselves.
While I agree with the first point, but the Hanson attacking just shits me.
there is a reall issue I see here with turnbul being undeclred in many areas
he's in the kevin rudd position being more liberal than his party, the abbot faction is still lurking, and if shorten goes then he cold face a fierce attack by an incoming labor leader
his "no promises" campaign will likely see him being called a liar a lot less than other PM's in recent memory
however he might rudely surprise some center right liberal voters, because he will find it hard to stay out of issues of race, immigration, religion and union activity
if it makes you feel any better the Australian media doesn't report on New Zealand at all
holy fuck has anyone been watching the senate
they recon the government will have to deal with 9 crossbenchers
and they are even more retarded than last years
Doing gods work mate.
'Onya mate
>lefties alternate between moral superiority over those racist foreigners and self flagellation over how racist we are in comparison to harmonious nations overseas
Bernardi is redpilled AF about leftism and the media
I don't mind him to be honest
Katter just said he's going to support Turnbull
If Willie takes it, it would be glorious
>4+ one nation seats
I'm so erect
Just turned on news 24 and Katter is talking about armed jews.
What the fuck am I watching?
Is everyone watching Katter talking about the ongoing Jewish holocaust and how it must end?
Um, aren't the Jews doing their own holocaust currently?
>Being able to get One Nation, Hinch, Lambie, Xenophon and the Greens to agree on ANYTHING
Kek, what a zoo. We're definitely headed to another double dissolution within three years.
absolute legend
...
Hello USA
Katter loves the unions and his mates in the ALP. This just cucks the Turnbull government even more
Or it shows how far Moderate Malcolm has moved the party
Not if the Coalition gets to 76 or 77 seats. They've already flipped Forde and could still hold Hindmarsh, Herbert and Flynn, which would be enough to give them a working majority.
He was making a case for less muslim immigration.
> Jews go to school in australia with armed guards that tells you there's something wrong with islamic intolerance
You're right, but it still makes the Coalition look desperate
It's looking like a slim coalition majority mates.
I'm more interested in the senate now.
Don't know why Coalition would want to form Government
It'll be the worst senate in decades and likely the worst economic conditions since the early 90's
Their jobs, growth and stability mottos are going to get thrown to the dirt
Next election expect to see 90 Labor seats
Hey.
for the money
Serious question: has there been a less workable senate in history? Seems impossible getting 9/10 One Nation/Xenophon/Lambie/Hinch votes if the Labor/Greens oppose
katter holds the balance of power
>worst senate in decades
Nah the senate will have a path for sensible reform.
Right-wing plus centrists (Lambie, Hinch, NXT) will have a majority.
Liberals won't get their more ideological bullshit through, but it will probably good for them to have to accept that they can't.
>Everything goes to shit
>WE NEED TO SAVE THE ECONOMY
>Privatise everything to SAVE THE ECONOMY
Now is the perfect time to be a coalition government.
I can't say about all history but it's getting weirder and weirder every year
In my humble opinion it's a result of a lack of diversity in he senate, which might sound a bit odd
the thing is with so few parties outside the big two, none of hte minor parties have broad policy platforms and man are "single issue" parties
so if you HATE labour and the liberals, and you HAVE to vote; you end up voting for some underfunded brainless minor party
>car costs too much to run
>sell the wheels then rent them off the guy we sold them too
>car still costs too much
>sell the car, hire a taxi
>taxi's cost too much
>you should have been wealthy
Redpill me on why privatising Medicare is a good idea, Sup Forums.
>Fred Nile gets the final NSW seat
>will withhold any support unless an internet filter gets put on
Game over, folks.
Will the LNP take my NEETbux away if they win majority government?
Because you can buy shares in private health companies.
Everytime someone breaks their arm playing sports on the weekend, you get a cut of their $12,000 bill.
10/10 story
They will try.
The senate will probably stop them though.
If you read the rules when getting health insurance that eliminates most problems it far cheaper than you think. Cheap private health care for all and privatise medicare is the way.
Bob Day (Family First leader) might get his seat back too, who would probably support the notion of an Internet filter. Hold on to your butts
The senate will be much like the senate after last election stalled. But Im keen to see who will be first to make a bill to deport muslims and close mosques.
You can't privatise medicare m8, that's not how single payer healthcare systems work. They rely on the coercive arm of the state.
Stop falling for memes.
Medicare won't be privatised it's a money sink, no company could make money off it. Medicare would either have to be drastically scaled down or abolished entirely.
there are two arguments for it as far as I understand
A. public health isn't worth investing in, privatization is essentially de-funding
B. privatization provides incentive for cost saving, more than the cut the private company receives
if it were privatized it wouldn't be medicare, just a network of private medical facilities.
what makes it medicare is that its all subsidized
so it would really just be "sold off"
there have been disasters in the past with privatization *cough* *telstra* *cough*
the issues are manifold, would the newly privatised buisiness have a monopoly they would exploit to provide poor valule
and most hospital procedures arn't profitable, why would the hospital fund preventative testing, or help anyone poor at all?
if the government payed the un-profitable parts, there would be no cost saving at all for obvious reasons
>BOB KATTER HAS AGREED TO CONFIDENCE AND SUPPLY
SAY IT WITH ME
SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE ROBERT KATTER
>SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE
He would have no interest in that at all.
Nah he's said he'd spit on any offer to become speaker
mark my words
katter will step up to the speakership and become the biggest hardass the house has ever seen
martial law on the floor
doesnt the speaker lose his vote
It would be based but he wouldn't take it
The biggest insurer is not publicly listed.
i would watch every single session of parliament if that was the case
Privatising it obviously means the business would change for profit
there is no need/reason to mke him speaker, nd it would rob him of his hard earned vote
>they've only counted an extra 0.3% of the vote since yesterday
blame auspost, not the AEC
and they are re-conting and re-counting
It's time we have electronic open source voting machines (and get rid of postal votes)
>Speaker Katter has fired a warning shot at an unruly MP for the 239th time this year
>Speaker Katter has ejected Senator Hanson-Young for the 4th time this year for being an "Absolutely Un-Australian Galah"
My body is ready
yep Fair enough!
Wouldn't the leftie elites in the media go fucking screeching like no tomorrow if he was speaker. they'd be hysterical.
just get rid of postal votes, fuck those robots off
>ABC STATUS [X] BTFO
>LABOR STATUS [X] BTFO
>GREEN STATUS [X] BTFO
>HOMO STATUS [X] NO HOMO
>NBN STATUS [X] TRASHED
reminder to suck it you delusional left wing shits, i told you so..
>mike "not bad" baird bans greyhound racing in nsw
How can one man be so based
bit strong for a party that is only going to holding government by two seats at most
Baird is a corrupt corporatist shill.
Banning greyhound racing is great though.
still better than another labor catastrophe
If libs stay under 75 will I get muh nbn? No construction has started and I'm in fucking Sydney
You aren't getting it either way.
>Celebrating your party just avoiding being the first one-term government since 1931.
What the fuck are you talking about you mongoloid cunt?
LABOR and LIBS both support it. It will pass through the house with 145 votes, and through the senate with 70.
It's a done deal.
Deal done.
yeah true
But after labor doing fuckall and cutting deals with corps (i.e. m2) it's nice to have someone actually working on building roads and such
I just hope that he doesn't get cunted by young degenerates mad about lockout laws
>Banning greyhound racing is great though
Why?
>voting labor who are backed by the greens and supporting corrupt unions
they should bring in a law to deport all you unaustralian cunts to somalia before you can do anymore damage.
Where are you?
I'm in seven hills (on hols) and I've got nbn
I think a lot of inner west stuff + economic centres like parramatta are getting it first
