Trump has been stumped

Americanfag here

If this does not convinced you to drop the Trump and actually try to get someone palatable like Cruz or Paul, you are what is wrong with America.

Facts don't care about your feelings, specially your "Trumpian" feelings.

Trump just ran for president to better his crumbling companies by giving him free Advertisement. He is not looking for donors, and is not even using his own money in form of donation (he gave a loan to his campaign).

Time to Dump the Trump and bring back the Good Conservative Politics to America.

What made America great was not race, it was Ideals.

If you think Race made America Great , you have fallen for the Alt-right meme.

If you believe that it was a controlled economic system, you fell for the Lefty and Alt-right memes.

Come back to reality Sup Forums, before it's too late

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=A7Kolu09A5U
thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/07/03/trump-isnt-losing-the-polls-are-just-biased/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

At least the memes were good

> What made America great was not race, it was Ideals

Yeah and Mexicans don't share any of those ideals

So you are willing to destroy a nation for memes

This is literally what the Left does.


Some Mexicans do,

Regardless, the United State should get rid of Welfare since its illegal according to the Constitution.

>So you are willing to destroy a nation for memes
America was willing to destroy several nations, it's justified

How many nations have Conservatives ever destroyed.

Most of the nations America has fugged over without Justification has been by lefties or Moderates

Notice how trump has kept his loudmouth shut after his numbers started declining in the polls? His dumb internal just keep shitposting on twitter.

He's probably rethinking the whole white trash pandering political persona he started with, because the redneck vote peaked months ago.

I'm gonna enjoy bathing in stormweenie tears once he loses

>How many nations have Conservatives ever destroyed.
Iraq
Afghanistan
Vietnam

Yeah, he just needed the "white blue collar job" vote for the primary, now he knows that will not work in the General.

There was a bigger chance for Cruz or Rubio to have win the General.

Many swing states don't like Trump at all, and those are the states that really matter

>There was a bigger chance for Cruz or Rubio to have win the General.
You're delusional. Cruz wouldn't have a chance against Clinton. Not even majority of religious Americans are that extreme.

>4.8% spread 4 months out from election night.

That's an improvement of 1.2% per month on average, assuming that the polls are accurate. That's completely doable, especially if he manages to do well at the debates. In fact I kind of think that this whole election will come down to the debates; if Trump does well he wins, if he does poorly he loses.

Was there ever an actual doubt he would lose?

>LBJ
>conservative
wew lad

Iraq- bush (centrist)
Afghanistan -bush (bush)
Vietnam --Johnson (liberal

>thinking the trump can be stumped
>mexico

I doubt it, Trump alienates many Centrist voters in wing states.

It will be very hard to win against the "most powerful vagina" the world has seen

I am an American you idiot. Not even shilling tbqh.

Literally anyone besides hillary

they said remain was going to win and Brexit lose as well

>Not realizing RCP cheats its averages by including loaded polls like Reuters and Bloomberg

If it didnt include garbage polls like Reuters EVERYTIME a good poll for Trump comes out they'd be within 3-4 pts which is where many winners of US elections have been at this point in time.

Basically.. kill yourself spic. Or better yet go kill one of your own politicians.

>look at my kike polls that over-sample democrat voters

that's a +10-footin', Paco

okay now adjust for voter turnout

BTFO faggot, fresh polls.

And one more thing... General election starts only after a week or two.

>Rasmussen
KEK

>Rasmussen swings 7 points in favor of Trump.
>Reuters gives Clinton another point.

I don't trust these polls worth a damn.

remember, they said remain was going to win
polls are fucking worthless

These polls have no point at least until August.
B-but still, no republican have ever started general by leading democratic scums.

If the majority is silent, what are polls?

worthless because the people who mainly make up polls don't actually fucking vote

Shut up Ben Shapiro.

OP is a fucking dumbass and should've been BTFO in the first post. Don't tolerate this horse shit for 10 seconds, pol, wtf.

>Americanfag here
right

Did someone russle your Jimmies faggot.

You can't even debunk me

If you don't want to believe me that is up to you.

There are so many proxyfags and VPN fags it's ridiculous.

Anyways even if I was a Mexican, which I am not, I am saying the truth here.

And Shillary even gets a larger lead by .2

Will trump build a wall to keep tripfegs out?

I sure hope so

Where do I sign up for shilling payout?
I need those cents from saudis.

This is such a beautiful delusion. The people taking these polls are older, and tend to skew conservative, even when they identify as democrat.

Millennials aren't answering unknown phone numbers. Like it or not, in reality, a lot of them do vote.

>Implying I am shilling.

I am just a person that does not want to see the Foundations of America Destroyed.

I hate Hillary more than Trump. But I don't want either.

Trump is the only candidate with a strategy that isn't for certified retards.

The power play is union demographics, not Latinos. Trying to compete with Dems on their preferred front- agitating minorities- is about the most idiotic strategy I've ever heard. They actually fell for the "republican Latino voters" meme- hence Cruz, Rubio, and Guac Man Jeb.

He is trying to steal Union demographics from Democrats which means walking back some of the NAFTA/TPP bullshit a little bit.

The cocksuckers you support are the same cocksuckers that have been pissing away opportunities going on about trap social issues rather than their power plays, all the while getting stomped on by their donors and the etablishment-left AKA Paul Ryan.

Trump is zeroing in on union demographics, he's not pissing on his base by pandering to Hispanics, and he isn't getting sucked into the social issues trap. The conservatives lost becuase they've been pissing on their base for eight years, posing as conservatives ok social issues while abandoning the minor issue called immigration.

No dog in this hunt but

I believe Trump will win this election. He will lose the popular vote but win the electoral college. I expect Hillary to lose the battleground states.

I know these mental tricks. Did I pass exam?
Come on share shekels with europoor.

Go mow a lawn paco.

welfare is legal, but its only for the states to decide. This is the fruit of losing the civil war, and why they paint the civil war (falsely) as a war to free niggers.

it was always about fair Representation and the autonomy of States (State's Rights), which we do not have today.

>American here

no your not, and you never will be. stay in mexishit.

10 ft higher, paco

Damn, guess I'm a #CruzMissile now....

sage this shit and move along boys, just another fat ass who thinks their opinion means shit.

Go clean a toilet Pole

Whooo. Paco Martinez can now pay his coyote for fast passage!

youtube.com/watch?v=A7Kolu09A5U

tuck frump

Not sure if you're lying or uninformed, but almost all these polls are conducted with the random digit dial methodology.

>polls
>facts
Pick one beanbag

More Mexicans than Canadians share American ideals.

this

Nate (((Silver))) is just a broken clock that happens to be right 95% of the time.

When did shit started, Donald was getting 3% in the polls, Jeb was getting 50%.

Clinton has a 4.8% lead... Trump will eat her alive

>Cruz
>Palatable
Even Rubio is more palatable than Cruz.
Paul would be great though.

>Americanfag here
Mexican flag...[[[American]]]
>If this does not convinced you to drop the Trump and actually try to get someone palatable like Cruz or Paul, you are what is wrong with America.
Arguments detected: 0.0

>Nate (((Silver)))
>happens to be right 95% of the time.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
AAAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
heheh.
sheeeit.

If we can prove the polls wrong so can Americans.

I completely agree with you.

He called 99/100 states in the last two elections and it was just dumb luck. Someone who knew what they were doing would have called all 100.

He can only predict typical elections.

Why was he right in 2012? Oh yeah because he had the model from 2008 to go on. The dynamic in those elections were identical. Are you a moron?

This is like not a normal election. Polls require an accurate turnout model. There is none for this election because it is a black swan.

Why has Nate Coprolite been wrong now for eight months?

I agree, 2008 was probably the most typical election ever.

I don't care what anyone says I'm always going to vote for Trump.
And I recommend you all do the same. *cocks shotgun katana*

>Mexican intellectuals

2012 was incredibly typical in that it resembled the 2008 model identically.

Perhaps this election's turnout model would resemble 2008 if Hillary could go back in time and run as the first black president.

When asked why he was wrong for a year on Trump, Nate Coprolite went on to say
>It wasn't my fault, I couldn't have predicted a race where the party didn't choose the candidate.

So I would ask- if he thinks the party chooses- what exactly is his job? To ask the party who they will be choosing?

No wonder he was so miserably wrong this go around.

Looks like we sent you back.

I, too, am upset that people like Nate Silver get so ridiculously lucky time and time again.

And I reiterate that I agree with you completely. If Silver was wrong about Trump's primary performance, he must be wrong about everything.

>Implying Shillary wouldn't have run Cruz/Rubio to ground by now
>like in 20 difference
She was probably expecting to race against FUCKING JEB

wow this thread is an example as to how many fucking shills are here now.

Yeah I'm confident Nate will get his act together, someone like him, a prophet, could simply never be wrong for months and months on end.

Some have suggested that he is a one trick pony who can only predict very typical elections, but clearly he is calibrating this one correctly despite his recent disgrace for twelve months.

Why do people think that Nate will be wrong this go around? He perfectly predicted the last election right? Why do people think Nate won't be able to model Trump's elections just because he has yet to be able to do it since last summer?

True, he said Trump had a better chance of playing in the NBA finals than being the Republican nominee? But shouldn't we just ignore that? I mean wow people make mistakes. I'm confident he will be one hundred percent correct.

I'll keep saying this:

Wait until the debates. If trump still keeps losing, then it's all ogre.
I have a sneaking suspicion he'll eat Hillary up like an ice cream sundae though, but nothing is certain. Keep an eye out, Sup Forums. The debates will be the site of the real battles.

He made a mistake. That's a fact.

Anything he says from now on is wrong. It's really that simple.

Why should we give him the benefit of the doubt of learning or adapting? We shouldn't.

I mean he clearly has this cycle figured out, so I'm confident in his prediction for this cycle. Twelve months of wrongness haven't shaken my confidence in the prophet.

Just because he got an entire primary season wrong, doesn't mean he hasn't already got the models calibrated to predict this particular election perfectly.

If he didn't have it figured out months ago, he will never figure it out as more data is gathered and analysed. "More data" being better for predicting something is a myth.

He was wrong, so he always will be wrong. We're in perfect agreement on this.

>Americanfag here
>Mexican flag
>Le Reddit Army!
sage

Less than 5 points is not a great difference.

Well it is 5 points now so...

People thought Carter was going to murder Reagan all the way up until a month out.

In reality it was a gigantic ass whipping the other way around.

You see polls don't sample people randomly, they come up with formulas based on prior elections to guess turnout. In this case 08 and 12. The Republican turnout was way up from 2008 however, and the Dem turnout was down by ~20%.

The polls were so close in 2012 because that particular election was identical to the 2008 model, so it was very easy to predict.

I think you will find the turnout models are mistaken when dealing with such an aberrational candidate like Trump. We can already see it happening with people like Nate Silver, who rely on modeling the polls into weighted formulas, being wrong for months and months on end because they have no prior information on which to make models from.

Please just don't let Hillary win, PLEASE Sup Forums

...

...

>He called 2 out of the last 4 elections
coin-toss rate, I know. baka.

I mean twelve months worth of mistakes clearly only counts as one mistake in my book. He will get this thing turned around I just know it.

I almost can't believe someone would be stupid enough to think he will henceforth be totally wrong- now I might buy that this particular election, with these particular candidates, he has been stumped because there is no pervious model to work with, but that too would be to place doubt in the golden child- the prophet.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this is a tough election for him to make a model out of, but hey, there is still the outside chance that his old model would be useful- I mean what if Romney and Obama end up running against each other again?

it will be hard for trump because america is like what 60% white now? or even less I cant remember

>the leaf speaks

>it will be hard for trump because america is like what 60% white now? or even less I cant remember

Which means he would have to win 70% of white voters in the country, which is statistically impossible.

And he even has a lot of border Hispanic support because he came down here and talked to us. He is a really nice person to Americans and he agreed that the illegal immigration problem was too much. My entire school, save for the few liberals, are pro-Trump.

Kinda wish Rick Perry also had a chance. Miss him.

I just want America to be great and not cucked like leafland...

Yall still listening to Nate? Man he scared the shit out of me when he said Trump had a better chance of playing in the NBA Finals than being the Republican nominee.

He actually got that one wrong on purpose I heard. I predicted that he would apologize for his year long wrongness, and recalibrate his model like most stats wizards, but I was wrong, he just blamed it on the voters picking someone he didn't predict would win. No shit, when asked why he was wrong, he blamed the Republican voters like a true stats wizard.

Please tell me you guys aren't falling for this blatent shilling. These people won't even get a penny to their paypal account with this level of shilling
thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/07/03/trump-isnt-losing-the-polls-are-just-biased/

Same here. If they lead the way, we can follow.

Trump's only problem is demographics and globalist propaganda. 20 years ago, his platform would have been acceptable, even among Democrats, but America has moved to the left the last two decades.

Maybe Cruz would have been a better option, he claimed he would build a wall too, but only because hispanics would be more inclined to vote for him.

>Please tell me you guys aren't falling for this blatent shilling.

Trump is the least popular candidate to run for the white house ever.

Out of curiousity which one was he wrong about?

The turnout models from 2008, that the polls are based on, WILL be correct, becuase Hillary is going to use her time machine to go back in time and run as the first black president after eight years of Bush against John "don't call him Hussein" McCain. Thus the turnout models we are basing on 2008 will still be relevant.

Sorry but we're going to build it Pedro and you are going to pay for it.

Here's your (you)

In any other election that might be relevant, but hillary is literally very very close to his unfavorables, so it's pretty much a wash. So we literally have the two most unfavorables running against each other.

Hillary's problem is that she has put herself in a box as a for-females candidate. Now that might be successful in your home cuckland over there, but did you know Hillary is actually doing much worse with men than trump is with women?

>Trump is the least popular candidate to run for the white house ever.
Which is why he got the most vote of any repulican in the primary in history.

He is also polling better with blacks than Romney or any other republican since the 1940s.

Trump is as good as it gets with minorities for reublicans, the exception being jews. A group it is pointless to pander to, because they are so few and give America nothing in return.

If you are white, why are you voting for the Democratic Party?