Will the deutsche bank crack be the next happening?

Will the deutsche bank crack be the next happening?

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My prediction
About 3 months from now it should bankrupt
It can be faster
If EU or European Central Bank helps it, it could give several months
Propably everything gonna crash around November

No, the first to go will be Monte Paschi and DB has lot of Monte Paschi derivatives

it will be a happening and it will happen. depending on how fast the italian banks fail, the DB fail will happen faster. italian banks will fail in the next few weeks. DBs dead cat bounce in the last few days was the sure sign it'e happening soon.

>If EU or European Central Bank helps it
Please do it, this would basically guarantee a Nexit.

Another question. obviously, it will be a crash on Europe. but will it also be a global "happening"?

Of course.

You thought Lehman was big? DB would be 10 times worse. No, a hundred times, since it would take the Euro with it.

It would be even worse than the Great Depression. Significantly.

If it really happens, yes

...

then, it will not happen. too big to fall.

Just like Lehman.

Don't get too excited Spaniard. Another bank will buy your mortgage debt so you won't lose your 7 mortgages, credit card and luxury car loans if it were to happpen.

There's no way to fix this user, the money doesn't exist in the entire world to fix it.

The ECB will absolutely bail out DB though.

Depends. Even if they can bail it out, it would result in in an enormous loos of confidence in investors

I talked to a girl working in structured products at Deutsche Bank yesterday. She says it is all a meme and that Deutsche Bank will survive despite the 718 trillion in derivatives on its balance sheet and the 587 trillion in off balance sheet derivatives.

I believe her.

but that would specify the crash on europe. Europe loses money and investors confidence. it's better than a global thing. I can't explain myself better

hopefully

it will be global, no doubt.

>ou thought Lehman was big? DB would be 10 times worse
no
> it would take the Euro with it
euro is dead already, i give it less than 5y.

>too big to fall.
definitely not anymore. central banks are out of ammo and can't stop it. if they could they would have stopped it to go as low as it already is.

i worked in finance for almost 20y now and what we're witnessing right now is without parallel in recent history. maybe the the tulip happening is remotely comparable.

not only Deutsche Bank is about to go shits
check out Commerz Bank, another huge bank in germany

>718 trillion in derivatives on its balance sheet and the 587 trillion in off balance sheet derivatives.

You're bullshitting. DB only has 72.8 trillion in derivatives exposure.

Economist here.

No one knows. There is no hard evidence that the Deutsche Bank is on the brink on collapse.

The Deutsche Bank tried to compete with new banks using old business models and has to pay the bill sooner or later. Not a single restructuring measure was effective yet.

We got a strong clue that the risk is not as bad as some portray it to be. Mrs. Merkel denied the Italian government to bail out their trash-tier (cannot put it another way) banks with taxpayer money.

Everything Ms. Merkel does is not for the sake of the taxpayer, it is for the sake of the economy. So probably, she does not seem concerned that much with the failure of Italian banks at all.

Let us all hope that the United Kingdom announces it will not leave the EU ASAP, because there is no way it will actually happen.

With what? Do you know how big DB is? They wasted all their resources on preventing this, the inevitable, from happening.

Something will trigger the chain. If it's not DB, it'll be the Italians.

It's not possible.

The money does not exist.

I see this shitty way of thinking an awful lot of times in spain. "A friend of mine told me to buy land and houses, it never loses value, so I believe him"
"A friend told me to bought a bigger car, it will give me less problems, I believe him"
look at this country and then think again.

If DB goes under, the entire world will go under. I'm sure Merkel will figure out a way to prevent this from happening.

I'm not gonna lie, but I might be wrong.
It won't be contained in Europe for sure. It will bring down probably USA and Japan too, maybe even China. There are many economical bubbles and such crisis can pop them up.
It will lead to many banks falling like dominoes
It is too big to be certain what would happen thou

>just bail it out xD

>It would be even worse than the Great Depression. Significantly

No it won't, for you euro users it might but not for us who do not use the euro

>You're bullshitting. DB only has 72.8 trillion in derivatives exposure.
>>>
Says you.

Isn't DB a private commercial bank?

>A friend of mine told me to buy land
good advice but only if you pay cash.

How did they amass such a huge amount of derivatives exposure?

I heard it had something to do with loans to Greece and Italy, and then selling CDSs on that?

DB is the biggest European bank, if it looses investors and confidence, it will drag Europe with it. The problem is that the world economy is so intertwined that Europe suffering would trigger a global domino like reaction.

Should I buy other banks' stocks so I get rich when DB defaults?

Practically everyone gets hit, how bad it's going to be we're not exactly sure yet.

easy man, put that interest rate down to -10 and buy more government bonds, its good afterall, because the currency goes down and we can export more goods right user???

you bet it will. especially the krona is very much exposed to a weak €. sweden will go down with the eu if the € tanks.

Yes, but if DB falls then companies having money in it also falls
Then it would strike government and other banks, because production and services start to stop
Then chaos starts

they did it, but with speculative intentions. so, when the bubble burst, they lost money.

>Implying the government won't fuck you out of everything

pull your money about and invest into gold and other assets


the kike global fiat currency racket is coming to a complete crash.


ALLAHU AKBAR!!!

>My prediction
>About 3 months from now it should bankrupt

What other "prediction" can you give us by talking out of your ass, jaroslavdamus?

>Merkel denied the Italian government to bail out their trash-tier (cannot put it another way) banks with taxpayer money.
I just heard on TV that the government will bail the banks with public money

All bank stocks will decrease as a result of deutsche bank going under, deutsches the most.
Leverage to the max and short the stock, or buy some european put options and wait for the right time.

His ass' contents are as good a prediction as economists, given the latter's track record.

>speculative intentions
that's bad.

>How did they amass such a huge amount of derivatives exposure?
>I heard it had something to do with loans to Greece and Italy, and then selling CDSs on that?

It is all about interest rate swaps, which has to do with the low interest rate environment in Europe.

youtube.com/watch?v=fbh3rndGDN8

Watch from 13:00 for a good explanation of Deutsche Bank vs. other banks and derivatives.

can we make it 6 gorrillion?

PULL YOUR MONEY OUT, BEFORE THEY PUT THE BANKS INTO LOCKDOWN MODE!!

SHIT ABOUT TO GET REAL, GOYS!!!

INVEST IN GUNS AND AMMUNITION!

No, most other banks have the exact same problem. Deutsche will just be the first domino in a series of banks that will collapse. I suggest having a few months worth of cash out of the bank (for food etc), and money in precious metals, just incase.

In the coming years there will be a deflationary crisis where banks and countries will be forced restructure debt. Central banks may attempt to hyperinflate their way out of the situation leading to various currency crisii (crisis') so precious metals will be a good hedge against that.

THE GREAT RESET SOON

TURN YOUR SAVINGS INTO GOLD BEFORE IT'S TO EXPENSIVE

YOU WEALTH ISN'T SAFE AS CASH AND ISN'T SAFE IN YOUR BANK

JESUS CHRIST They sold credit default swaps on loans to greece and italy!!! ARE THEY FUCKING MENTAL?

I would buy food, water, then some guns and ammo if you have license
It will be more valuable than some paper money

Ahh now I know why the Dutch politicians gave our retirement funds to the EU.

We're fucked.

GOLD SILVER AND BEANS GOLD SILVER AND BEANS

They bled dry the southern Europe to save DB, and all that achieved was just to delay the inevitable for a few years.
Maybe now, they're gonna try the same with Britain or Eastern European countries. Which will only give it a few years more, before it becomes a problem again.
DB is dying and EU will die with it, the recession will be the worst yet and it's going to be global, not just European.
And after the world's worst recession, the third world war is coming. This is exactly how it happened, this is exactly how it's going to happen again.
We will have our fighting chance then, if Russia manages to win somehow, we're safe. If not, here we come NWO.

>Deutsche will just be the first domino in a series of banks that will collapse
not the first but one of the biggest.
>I suggest having a few months worth of cash out of the bank
bad advice. buy food now, if prices inflate you have to pay 3000€ for 500g pf pasta.
>In the coming years there will be a deflationary crisis where banks and countries will be forced restructure debt
no, lenders will default, no restructuring.
>precious metals will be a good hedge
you don't seem to understand the utility of pm.

fair enough.

...

Of course that the Deutsche Bank channels Lehman Bros from the grave and it's currently the most dangerous bank in the world, but the ECB has already started buying corporate bonds. Then we'll have ball-in BRRD ("Cyprus variant" - stealing 50% of the citizens bank deposits).

good advice here.

are you retarded?

You want to buy shit that is negatively correlated with bank stocks, so the last thing you want to have is... other bank stocks.
Maybe gold or some shit like that.


Just short DB with your toilet cleaning money and enjoy germanies downfall.

>Implying Russia wouldn't NWO

go read 1984

>it's going to be global


no it's not going to be global, only effect the economies that are heavilty tied down to the jewish banking racket

North Afrika is preparing to go full gold which will deal a double economic blow to the west.


THIS IS NOT A DRILL, WITHDRAW ALL YOUR SAVINGS,INVEST IN GOLD AND KEEP IT IN YOUR SAFE

DO NOT TRUST THESE KIKE BANKS

THEY ARE TRYING TO SAVE THEIR OWN ASSES


AT YOUR EXPENS|E!!

So importing millions of rapefugees was for the sake of the economy? I don't buy it.

Show me where, during the WW1 or WW2, gold was a key to the survival.

>leveraged shorts
I.. I can't lose!
marketwatch.com/story/help-my-short-position-got-crushed-and-now-i-owe-e-trade-10644556-2015-11-19

>Economist here.
>There is no hard evidence that the Deutsche Bank is on the brink on collapse.
What is technical analysis.

Soviet Communism is dead for over 20 years now, in case you haven't noticed.

The derivatives exposure will drag down everyone. It's the domino theory in practice.

Energy based currency when?

Derivatives exposure isn't the same thing as debt.

Think of it like a bookmaker taking bets; if lots of people are betting on Team A, they attempt to balance the books by offering better prices on Team B. This lowers the 'exposure' as if Team A wins, they can pay them out using the money taken from people betting on Team B. It's kinda like that.

When people talk about 'derivative exposure' they're usually talking about the amount of money invested in the derivative markets overall - it doesn't take into account that the derivatives are offset with one another and/or insured.

Interpreting the exposure as 'OMG money they owe' is completely wrong.

Hope you're right mate.

Time to boot the shitskins out.

This would be our chance.

Why else would a Conservative chancellor be strictly pro-immigration.

It's not the key to survival, you're right.

But its price will raise dramatically so you stand to make a ton of money while people are losing theirs kek

Gotta out jew the jews.

Do you see NATO marching its troops your country, right now?
Why would they do this? What realistic threat does Russia pose to Europe right now? Instead of marching them into the Mid East to end the threat of Islamic terrorism?

They're setting up the stage. The pieces on the chessboard. It's coming now, it's soon.
DB is dying, recession is coming and with it, the War. A war of the west against Russia and China maybe.
That's why they're bringing those troops there now.

What I mean to say is where you're going my Pole friends, gold won't save you. Your country will be a warzone.

Does this mean Remainians are BTFO?

>The derivatives exposure will drag down everyone.

once again, Im telling, not everyone


why do you think the Chink distanced themselves from the dollar.

They already secured their economy and their vaults are packed with gold.

the western cucks though, they will burn hard.

Cmon lad it happens in your country too, why do you think the guvt is so eager to let in millions of mexicans?

I think Commerzbank is following DB down because of its exposure to DB. Its own fundamentals arent as bad as DB, but are as bad as most of EU banks

>Your country will be a warzone.


I'll bet you USA will be a war zone much faster. These faggot here will soon be high tailing back to the US to contain the situation there.

not comparable. war is different from financial collapse. pm will be the only assets (other than land) which will be of any value. but it won't be like cash, you keep it until things stabilize, then buy land, businesses or commodities.

So most of it is in interest rate swaps, in order to drive down the interest rate in America and Europe.

I still don't understand how interest rate swaps can become such a huge problem, because essentially we both agree to a contract, for example I agree to pay you LIBOR on 1 million euros, and you pay me 2% on 1 million. My derivatives exposure then is 1 million euros, right?

In reality only around a couple of thousand euros gets exchanged between us. Am I wrong? I'm still trying to wrap my head around this huge amount of derivatives exposure.

This

Gold don't fulfill any basic needs
You can't eat it, drink it, heal somebody with it
If there would be heavy lack of food, you are fucked, because gold price would be real low compared to food, water, weapons, antibiotics or oil
Buy what serves basic needs and can be stored for longer

Chinese have big housing bubble and it is rising
They do everything to reduce impact, but they will feel it too

If DB fails it's going to affect everyone, EU or not

you have no clue. china is in deep, deep shit. maybe even deeper than western states. if the west tanks, china tanks as well. they need us more than we need them.

One can only hope so.

Don't you remember the crash that Chinese stock markets suffered recently? Their bubble is already bursting. They're too weak, they won't be able to endure the shockwave of the DB explosion.

Imagine the global market as a Jenga tower. You know the game, right? DB is the wrong piece, and someone is just going to pull it out.
Even if someone is not directly exposed to DB and as a result, won't suffer from DB's death, he will be damaged from elsewhere. The whole consumer-based western way of life, is going to come to a very abrupt stop.

There wont instantly be hyperinflation, it's not like the banks will collapse and then instantly everything will become super expensive. Quite the opposite. There will likely be bank holidays and freezing of trade for a period of time where cash will be king until the banks are loaded with cash from central banks. Cyprus bail ins, greece etc
Cash, precious metals, food and guns etc, all will be useful

And how are precious metals not a hedge against hyperinflation?
Precious metals will retain or increase in value (not price, but value) during a period of hyperinflation as people rush to safe assets

Derivatives aren't a problem. It is a fucking meme.

It is all about whether there is a technical problem in the system or one of the main clearing systems blow up due to human error or fraud... then Deutsche Bank is fucked.

>Gold don't fulfill any basic needs
you too have no clue. gold was a currency for millennia, it didn't change. why do you think japan, india and many other countries are buying gold like there's no tomorrow? are they all dumbasses?

Yes I know that, but as this crash isn't referendum related, it destroys the notion of a strong European economy protecting us incompetent Brits from ruin

Polling on the continent post brexit shows large gains for pro-eu parties, and far-right anti eu parties are losing ground.
This idea that brexit will lead to the disintegration of the eu is rubbish, the opposite is happening.

India has always been a large consumer of gold, gold trinkets are a status symbol - it's a cultural thing.

I'm a finance noob, how would this affect government bonds? It's not money in the bank but I assume savings in bonds would get btfo too because EU countries would go broke and somehow confiscate that? Unfortunaly my uncle memed my parents into putting their savings in treasury bonds. At least 0 of it is in banks.

dont listen to that polak kike

the international kikes know their fiat currency and "bonds" racket is coming to a kaput.


It's why they've blown up the WTC grabbed all the gold they cold carry and bailed for the Golan Heights.

The fuck out of this board, arab dog

Are there any good books on this that aren't "Swaps and Derivatives Volume 1 to 300" textbooks?

Melanin is worth more than gold, invest in negroes.
keyamsha.com/2014/06/28/melanin-is-worth-353-a-gram/

>here will likely be bank holidays and freezing of trade for a period of time where cash will be king
this will last only for a few days. remember, the greek, cyprus thing is not comparable to what's gonna happen. this it will be large scale. food will get more expensive even before the collapse. again, buy food now, when things go belly up it's too late.

remember when greeks couldn't get food deliveries because the truck companies were unable to pay for gas? foreign truck companies instantly raised prices and food got more expensive practically on day one.

Somewhat decent analogy.

The problem however is that if the counter-party defaults it's as if neither Team A or Team B actually win.