Give it to me straight, Sup Forums, what are his actual chances of winning in November?

Give it to me straight, Sup Forums, what are his actual chances of winning in November?

It feels as if no matter what happens or what he says will matter because of all the popular hate towards him.

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projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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voter turnout is shit in your country, chimps and libcucks won't go out to vote much at all, and it's quite likely that he'll win then meet with an /unfortunate accident/

5%

And I'm being very optimistic here.

He's too divisive to win, Robio & El Rato's supporters will vote for Hitlery

I'll give him 50/50.

It's a coin flip.

and hey, we all thought brexit wouldn't happen, and isn't it funny?

40%

>UK 90% white voting population
>US 70% white voting population

>mfw

If there's more autistic teenagers who call him "raisis" and "islamofoub", his chances to obtain more votes rise up.

But at the moment, 40% probably.

>LaughingSoros.zip

pretty god damn low, i live in the south and even most red necks think he's too god damn stupid to run the USA. Who do you guys start shilling for 2020 when he loses?

Very high since (C) is digging her own grave with her statements attacking white population

Who knows. 2016 is the most fucked up year in a very very long time. Most people know this but are in denial. Summer has just started, there are so many wild cards left in this insane year.

Don't kid yourselves. Clinton will win by sheer force of societal pressure. I'm a realist, and realistically, we're fucked.

Now comes the part where you call me shill.

I hate that, as a Bernie supporter, I actually have to choose Hillary now. Trump would have been a pretty based president if he didn't champion so hard against minorities. His stance on trade, jobs, and nationalism is way more appealing than Hillarys but his bigotry over shadows it and now he actually does come off similar to Hitler.

It's a damn shame really.

>the july 2016 chimpouts
>illegal mexicans shipping whatever illegal shit sells over the border
>just look at europe to see why mass mudslimes is bad

The guy doesn't hate minorities, he's just a realist who favours extreme solutions

Shill

I could see it going either way. Boomers will decide this election of course. They are old, quiet, dont protest and are sitting on their couch watching cops and whites have war declared on them. These people have grandchildren and I assume are extremely disturbed at what they are leaving behind.

I've been a crazy liberal for as long as I can remember and I'm voting for him

Shit doesn't make sense anymore. I've always been liberal because I've felt it's meant giving people the benefit of the doubt and that nothing should ever really be taken THAT seriously

Shit has become completely retarded tho

Hillary is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people

Trump says mean things on Twitter

It's a no brainier who the lesser of two evils is here (I hate that cliche)

>he hates minorities because he wants to get rid of illegal immigrants

Literally: what?

>actual chances of winning in November

0%

Hillary didn't get indicted. That was the only thing that might have bumped the needle.

He has no filter. He has no policy. He's never had someone say 'no' to him that he didn't fire, so he thinks he's always right.

He's thin skinned. He's not ready for a national stage on any level except reality TV.

...

Low, but stranger things have happened.

>1post by this ID
>literally Hitler

Zero.

He's a clown and a shill for the Clintons.

He will do something to deliberately sabotage his own campaign.

I think this type should be classified as a demoralization thread by the community.
It really only fosters demoralization, and even if we're wrong in the end, we're big guys enough to take dissapointment.
Besides, we've had countless "what are his chances" threads already.

>He will do something to deliberately sabotage his own campaign.
And then he'll go up 5 points in the polls.

>Hillary didn't get indicted
You are either a hillshill or a retard. Trump's only chance of winning is by having Hillary as the democratic nominee. If she had been indicted, another candidate would have taken her place and most likely there would be a higher turnout for the democrats

>$0.10 have been deposited to your account

Trump has a 100% chance of winning.

>people voting
>for Hillary

We're in one of the few alternate universes where Donald Trump becomes the 45th President of the USA. Don't ask me how I know.

10。

Hes a based democratic sleeper agent who pulled on over on all the twenty something edgy skinfags.

This meme needs to die.

Rubio and El Rato supporters are falling in line. Pundits are manufacturing "Never Trump."

>He has no policy

Another shitty, unfounded meme, bravo.

OP, Trump actually has a decent chance at winning.

Hillary, of course, started out with a good chance of winning. She has the backing of the establishment, minorities etc.

However, expect black turnout to be low (Just as it always is, with the exception being "muh Obama.")

Additionally, Trump is within striking distance in a few swing states. Trump's platform actually plays VERY well in a number of swing states, which have been fucked over by free trade. Hillary's stance is costing her there.

She's seen as "corrupt and untrustworthy." The lack of indictment will solidify that message for non-Dems.

Younger people (Traditionally a Dem stronghold) aren't going to turn out in large numbers either. They may dislike "Drumph," but they're not enthused with Hillary.

Hillary, currently, is tanking her own campaign by lecturing whites & disputing Comey's statements. The latter is actually a horrible move for her politically. It puts her on the defensive and draws more negative headlines towards her situation.

The debates are going to be a game changer, and a lot of naysayers on Sup Forums aren't taking that into account.

Hillary would have run circles around someone like Rubio in a policy debate. That's what she's good at, polished, focus group-tested policy debates. It's scripted theatre and it's the only "high ground" for Hillary.

Trump won't have a policy debate. He'll have a character debate. She's going to get absolutely railed by him, and the entire nation is watching.

Trump's thin-skin is an oft-repeated meme, but Hillary's skin is thinner. She won't hold up to Trump's barrage. This is the candidate, for the record, that stays out of the media spotlight as much as possible, because even softball interviewers hurt her.

1/2

I'm really surprised more Republicans voted in the primaries overall compared to how many voted in the Democratic primaries. Werent there more open Democratic primaries than there were open Republican primaries?

This. He's controlled opposition. The only way to elect a piece of shit is to run an even worse piece of shit to make the first one look good by comparison. I don't think they imagined how popular he would actually be though and this scares the people really in charge.

Comey saying she has been lying Congress and the public for the last year on multiple points of the email scandal, while not indicting her and kicking her out of the race, was the best thing for Trump. She lied about the number of servers, the classified information she sent on them -including info so secret that even Congress can't access-, and she lied that the State Department approved her email setup.

Hopefully they will investigate the Clinton Foundation next.

There's nothing wrong with his stance on minorities.

You're letting the media decide for you.

He's the only logical choice

>trump
>controlled

2/2

If you think Hillary's policy oriented approach to debating will beat Trump's attacks and conspiracy peddling, I'd suggest you re-watch the 2012 VP debates.

Paul Ryan, who made a clear-cut case for the Romney/Ryan platform, lost (in the public's mind) to Biden, who ignored rules, took snarky jabs, but failed to defend the Obama/Biden platform.

The debates will sink Hillary's ship. She won't hold up to scrutiny. Look at her performance in the Dem. debates.

She stayed policy-oriented, and still had mixed reviews. Chafee and O'Malley weren't attacking and Bernie was hitting her with kid's gloves.

She was so afraid of Bernie's (very weak) attacks, she CANCELLED previously scheduled debates before the California primary.

Trump is going to demolish her there.

Finally, unlike Romney, Trump has actually energized the Conservative base. Conservatives stayed home in large numbers during the 2012 election, because Romney was a shitty candidate. Despite that, Mittens only needed 4% more of the white vote to win.

The conservatives that stayed home in 2012? They're the most energized people in this election. They'll turn out.

It's reasonable to expect the less excited moderates to turn out as well.

The stakes are much higher for a Hillary presidency, than another Obama term.

SCOTUS rulings a month back highlighted that perfectly. That, combined with NRA fear-mongering will drive out Cruz fags to vote for Trump (The group that would reasonably be expected to abstain from voting).

Oh, and last I checked, Hillary was more unfavorable with men than Trump is with women.

tl;dr:

>Expected low turnout from key dem blocks.
>Unfriendliness towards Hillary's platform in a few swing states
>Trump leading with whites and men more than Hillary leads with women and minorities
>Hillary's eternal problem of sabotaging herself (She can only stay out of the spotlight for so long).
>The fact that the debates can ONLY hurt Hillary

Decent chance.

>THE FIRE RISES

I fucking hate populists like you

go read a fucking book for once in your life you stupid bernout

Not that unbelievable. He declared bankruptcy multiple times at the governments expense and made money off of it. I'm sure he owes the government a favor.

He's the perfect dumbass to run a modern campaign. He's a reality tv star and has been spewing opinions on the news for the past few years, who knows the media better?

His chances are very good and only shills would tell you otherwise.

...

You guys are literally retarded.

The "Trump is a Clinton plant" is on-par with "reptilians" as far as ridiculous conspiracies go.

Trump's name is everything to him. It's literally a source of income for him and his kids, and it's his source of pride (He is, admittedly, a narcissist).

Hillary can't give Trump money, he doesn't need it. Furthermore, ANYTHING Hillary COULD give Trump wouldn't be worth the tradeoff.

Trump has burned so many bridges (Macy's, Univision, etc.) by running his campaign, that there's simply no material benefit.

Additionally, like I mentioned above, Trump's name is the most important thing to him. Why go down as "The most hated Presidential candidate in History," when he could have avoided politics entirely, and been remembered as "Eccentric billionaire/Model dater/Builder/Businessman/Reality TV star."

'bout three fiddy

Unless someone is gassing Jews and expanding their country's borders through invasion they are not like Hitler.

>what is a corporate bankruptcy

retard

>He declared bankruptcy multiple times
Fuck off shill

...

I show everybody I know clips of his gaffes because they're funny.

You want to humanize him, because Hillary is a robot compared to Trump.

They're rising with every chimpout.

>Rmoney was shit candidate so republicans stayed home
>these people will vote for trump
I know plenty of people who voted for Romney who didn't really want to that are saying they refuse to vote at all this election. The types of people Romney brings out (the majority of republican voters) are not the same as the die hard trump supporters who stayed home in 2012

He's going to win. People are tired of the left's bullshit.

fucking mormons

Hillary is fucking scary. A literal joker manifest

"The majority of Republican voters" turn out anyway. They're not voting FOR a candidate, they're voting against the Democratic nominee.

Do you think Hillary is going to keep these people home any more than Obama did?

Furthermore, provide all of the anecdotes you like. Current polling suggest that even the moderates are falling in-line behind Trump.

I think it's all up in the air until the debates, but I have a really hard time seeing Trump losing those. I also think that the numbers will either be really close in favor of Trump or Clinton, or there actually will be a real silent majority moment and it'll be a complete blowout in Trump's favor.

>what are his actual chances of winning in November?
I would say pretty good if I wasn't dam near certain Shillary is going to rig the election like she did with Bernie.
I have met nearly 100 Bernouts.
Literally have only met 1 person who unironically was a Hillary supporter.

Trump's the most voted for republican primary candidate of all time, don't kid yourself.

He's literally a "Trump is Controlled Op!" poster.

Reasoned political debates aren't possible with people like that.

...

Yeah this sums it up for me. I'm a dude weed, jew, race mixing, degen but I've loved trump since the start . As soon as I saw all the hate he was getting and realised he was a political nuclear bomb I got right on the trump train.

Bit sad liberals can't see that he is a true liberal choice and closest thing to an independent that has had a chance at winning since I've been alive

My family and I are all voting against Democrats this year since Hillary is the nominee. Anecdotal but I wonder how many others are doing the same.

He is going to win easily over the most flawed candidate and person in history.

>$0.10 has been deposited to your account

nothing can stop the magasaurus

Now that I have to applause.
Most abstract & fuck you for seing it even in my fucking soup !!

20%-40%, Uncucking the USA was never going to be easy

I think it's pretty much confirmed both the USA and UK will have female leaders come November

People saying Trump has no chance are seriously underestimating voters.

I have no pity for you if you've lost hope and refuse to keep fighting. You have to keep killing the left's lies and keep telling everyone you know to vote for Trump.

>Wants to deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants and build a pointless wall which will do little to stop illegal immagration with taxpayer money
>Wants to punish women who seek abortions
>Want to ban all Muslims from entering the United States
>Wants to kill the family members of terrorists >Routinely advocates government sanctioned torture
>Wants to "open up" libel laws so he can prosecute anyone who critiques him
>Wants to censor large portions of the internet

As much as I hate Shillary I can't possibly support a dangerous lunatic like this. Needless to say neither will get my vote.

>wants to support 11 million ILLEGAL immigrants with government money
>receives 25 million dollar donations to her charity from the world's worst oppressors of women
>pushed to destabilize Libya and Syria, as well as funding and arming "moderate rebels" (read: ISIS)
>supports Obama's drone war, the number one marketing tool for terrorist recruiting
>supports Obama's decision to assassinate a US citizen (and his 16 year old son later)
>sent information so highly classified that Congress isn't allowed to see it through an email account hosted on a Raspberry PI and lied to Congress about it

#imWithHer

His chances are understated in the MSM. Hillary's ad and propaganda machine has already spent 10's of Millions of the hundreds she's raised on negative adverts in battleground states and still he's within ten points even on the least favorable polls. And he's spent basically 0 on ads against her, although I think his SPAC has. He just now raised $25 M for his campaign and can now start slinging back. Once that begins and she keeps being dogged by the reopened State Dept investigation there's a real shot he ends up with it.

Since I was about 10 my dad (b. 1947) has said that his generation set out to change the world, and couldn't even raise their own children. From what I've gathered they understand the world is about to completely burn/collapse, and they are the last generation probably to get to ride the whole ride.

Boomers were the worst. They had a chance to reshape the world after WW2. Thry left us with 30 trillion in debt and an economic oligarchy.

100%
Check em'

>Wants to "open up" libel laws so he can prosecute anyone who critiques him
elaborate please

Brexit can't possibly happen

>Trump gives excellent message after the Dallas Massacre

>No one gives a shit about it

This is Memedowski told CNN that "Trump should be Trump". His joo son-in-law is gonna ruin Trump's chances of WINNING bigly.

>trusting the joo to do the right thing

Jewdowski's only selling point is that he worked on Trump's campaign. Trump's campaign has fundamentally changed, so the only way he can stay relevant is to suggest Trump go back to the system Jewdowski knows.

Trump gave an excellent message.

Clinton gave a lukewarm and pretty shitty one.

Obama just deep-throated a giant black phallus on stage and gurgled, but people thought it was a nice message. Because he's such a good speaker, you know.

The point is that Trump's supporters received the message well, those in the middle will like it too; and the media hasn't dismantled it into a variety of negatives. They can't grab onto anything with this one, and that's a good thing.

lots of people love trump, the silent majority. No one really likes hillary, she is just the democratic nominee.

The people in power will start a race war and institute a police state before Trump becomes president

>popular hate towards him.
More people feeling passionately about him, one way or the other, is actually a benefit. People hating him actually helps him.

They go on facebook, they make bad arguments against him, people see it, and it makes them want to vote the other way. They help put his name out there and advertise for him. They strengthen the convictions of the people who already intended to vote Trump, and they wake up more mild-mannered people who see their level of bullshit; they get people to speak out against what they're saying, they get people to vote Trump who normally wouldn't have cared about the political scene.

It's the Howard Stern effect. Back in his most popular era, so many people hated him, and it only made him more popular, it made the show more interesting because they would call in and get into pissing matches with him, and half these people who claimed to hate him so much would sit there listening to them.

If Mr. A had 10,000,000 people who said they'd vote for him, but Mr. B had 7,000,000 people who said they'd vote for him - But also had 20,000,000 people who said they hated Mr. B's guts, Mr. B would win the election.

100 percent. These happenings are not organic, they are desperation.

aren't you guys afraid he will be accused of sexism/misoginy during the debate? If he's too blunt (as per usual) he could do him some damage...It's true however that he will moderate his stances and try to appeal to more people but he has to stop tweeting dubious shit like the star....we'll see what will happen next week with the chimpouts etc...

btw, when is the debate supposed to happen? Is it only one debate? can either of them refuse to debate?

>aren't you guys afraid he will be accused of sexism/misoginy during the debate?
Absolutely fucking not. Don't you think Trump expects that and already has a perfect response to it already?

When people see Donald Trump bringing up all these important points, and speaking very eloquently and professionally (yet also isn't afraid to throw the gauntlet down; these aren't mutually exclusive. Sometimes you need to be tough), and Hillary fucking sits there and goes "You're racist, you're sexist!" it's going to change a few minds. Think about it. That's all she has. That's her only "argument", and it's not even an argument. It's an assertion.

On the contrary, I can't wait to see Hillary accuse him of racism and sexism, and I can't wait to see Donald's masterfully crafted response.

>btw, when is the debate supposed to happen? Is it only one debate?
Not sure as far as either of these. But as others have pointed out in the thread, they are trying to instigate a race war, as a distraction from Hillary's recent scandals, and possibly also as an excuse not to have the debate. They know Hillary can't beat Trump in a debate. It would be an hour of Trump bringing up important points, and Hillary just going "you're racist, you're sexist" the whole time.
>can either of them refuse to debate?
Probably, but I imagine that the party that refused would lose a lot of votes for it. Because that's basically conceding that you can't beat the other person.

Between 30 and 40%.

But it's pretty much impossible to tell before the first debate.

Also, to those who think the race war is imminent, I don't think that's necessarily true. They didn't think Brexit would happen. Their plans are falling apart. Even cheating, they can't win. And people are more awake to what they're doing than ever before. More and more people are waking up every single day.

The globalists think they have this system where there is always something they can fall back on. Hillary can't beat Trump in a debate, so we'll just have a race war to avert the debate. Oh wait, people didn't take the race war bait. Well, we'll just let Hillary lose the debate, so what, we'll just rig the votes. And then that'll fail too and before we know it Trump will be getting sworn into office, and Hillary will flee the country to avoid persecution.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I'd say his chances are probably a little bit higher than this, since I think Hillary has a lot more potential to lose support than Trump.

Dunno... i was just checking out trump's jewbook page, and comparing it to clingon's. Every post he makes has +100k reactions, some like +400k, mostly positive comments and thumbs up/ smiley face. Clinton's hardly have any around 50k, and a lot of frowny face/ angry face. And the majority of comments are negative. I think he has a good chance of getting more votes by a landslide. But I'm not completely confident that he will be declared winner due to some kind of fraud.

YOU FUCKING RETARDS. STOP POSTING IN SLIDE SHILL THREAD. JUST RESPOND WITH 1 POST BY THIS ID IF YOU REALLY HAVE THE NEED TO TYPE SOME SHIT UP.

sage

>PA, OH, FL, NC
>all going to Hillary
Who made this? The same turd who runs Hillary's twitter?

Well Sup Forums recently came across a lot of info on the clintons. It would be smart if they waited until AFTER the conventions to start revealing the big dirt on them. Last thing they need is for Bernie to be the nominee and steal the presidency from trump

>Jewdowski

He's a polack, not a jew. The REAL jew trying to sabotage Trump's campaign is (((JARED KUSHNER)))

fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

Methodology.

Bernie support has been going nowhere but down. He's about as relevant as Jeb at this point