That's the first time in my life (19) that I actually care about an election.
I am pretty sure that Clinton is just some reptile like jew creature wearing a human suit.
Also, if you are getting as much unjustified hate and media shitstorming as trump gets you HAVE to do something right.
Now PLEASE tell me he got a chance and some Hillary facts would be nice too.
Of course he has a chance. Protip: The double digit deal for Crooked Hillary polls are fraud. Look at the data. They have massive Democratic oversampling. (((They))) are screaming that Trump won't win just as they were screaming that Brexit won't win. They are in for a surprise.
Trump will win. We've known this since at least January.
The reason I am so insecure is because of the way he behaves.
Literally every tweet is anti Hillary.
But not in a "winning-style".
He seems like a desperate guy trying to make her look bad, but it doesm't seem to work.
To me, it seems like he lost control.
He literally assraped every other candidate with a fucking sword, but that fucking bitch....
she got the media, the celebs, the jews...
polls have repeatedly shown that they don't calculate angry voters well at all
look at any recent UK poll for examples, or the 2014 midterms that the pollsters thought were mostly safe blue/"too close to call" but was a clean sweep for the republicans.
The problem is that we really haven't had people as angry when formulating the methods behind these polls as we do now.
It's why Nate Silver was made a complete fool of repeatedly.
>she got the media,
he plays the media like a fiddle
literally everyone made fun of the media for the sixpointed star shit
Nate Silver made a fool out of himself because he actually ignored poll numbers in his pursuit of punditry.
If he picks a solid VP, continues to dominate the debate stage, and effectively mobilizes ground teams he definitely has a chance.
Trump has been survived:
>being called a Nazi/Fascist/Racist/Sexist/Xenophobe
>criticism from the Pope
>criticism from Obama
>nearly being banned from Britain
>16+ candidate primary
Hillary:
>barely beat Comrade Bernie "everything for free" Sanders.
And.....they're basically tied.
Her strategy has been to stay out of the ring as long as possible, that's why she has ballooned. She can't keep that up much longer, once the debates kick off she's back under the microscope.
also, did anyone else notice how no polls are being released since all the FBI shit and shootings?
You better believe he can win. Trump is only 4-5 points behind.
I don't believe he will win (although I hope he does). However you shouldn't give too much importance to polls imo. Look at what happened with brexit
It's definitely possible. It seems unlikely because the odds are stacked against him, but he likely has many tricks up his sleeve, and we haven't had a single debate yet.
>consensus electoral college projection based on numerous pundits
Not a chance
the US polls are even worse because many of the companies running them have a dog in the fight
e.g, reuters is one of clinton foundation's largest donors
the ones that claimed to be non-partisan and take no outside donations at all(e.g, Quinnipiac) find them to be statistically dead even.
also, national polls are meaningless because only 4-5 states actually matter and 4 of those states are in the rust belt where hillary is going to suffer due to her husband royally destroying the area.
For an example, go look at what happened to her in Michigan during the primaries.
>pundits
The 'official' polls are rigged to hell and back, they aren't representing the reality of the situation.
Right now there are two demographics that support hillary:
Single women and blacks.
If black turnout can be reduced (or even flipped to supporting trump - which is possible; hillary's always been extremely racist towards blacks) then trump wins the election.
Basically, what's needed right now is emotion-based memes that can easily be spread on social media to swing blacks and single-women voters. So, attacking hillary's character, trustworthiness, racist attitudes... honestly, she's pretty despicable to begin with so it's not even difficult to find ammo. She actually *IS* awful.
Clinton only leads PA, NH, and VA by a few points. Higher turnout and good debates for Trump could mean a red win in those states
Naw trump no chance, be cool though. Johnsons pulling at 10%, even if he dropped out, Clinton still has the minority vote, which means unless whites overwhelming choose trump he'll lose.
Hardly. The odds just seemed stacked because the media is pushing for Hillary. He has a better chance of beating her than he does of Bernie or Biden by far.
>Johnsons pulling at 10%, even if he dropped out, Clinton still has the minority vote
Johnson pulls more votes from Clinton than Trump you idiot
you're kidding rite m8? it's stein that's pulling from hillary
>Trump is only 4-5 points behind
Which statistically means his chances are less than 5% given a 3% MoE.
>Johnsons pulling at 10%
I wish he won't even get 2% but he pulls from Hillary because those are Berniebots
Look at the polls you dipshit, Johnson pulls more votes from Clinton than he does from Trump.
Trump struggles with the far-right cuckservatives who would never vote for Johnson because he's far left on social issues.
this
Yea, and trump needs those votes if he wants to win
All about the swing states baby. I mean, obviously these general election polls mean something, but its the statewide polls you should be looking at.
>Right now there are two demographics that support hillary:
>Single women and blacks.
Unfortunately it's minorities in general and democrats in general including men and women. Trump isn't going to get the latino vote. He's going to have the male consevative vote minus the mormons and that's not enough.
Hm, I don't know. I think Bernie would push away conservative white democrats and older people. They really don't like anything that smells of socialism or higher taxes.
Biden I think would lose to Trump to. He's boring and doesn't have Hillary's support. Her support network is insane, and reaches far beyond the media. It's not Clinton we have to beat, but her spider web of surrogates and allied groups that shill for her day in and day out.
>needing minorities
He literally just needs the whites to win. The minorities tend to not vote anyways and even if all of them did the white's would still win it in this election. Hillary's only real support is single women.
>The 'official' polls are rigged to hell and back
What about all the betting websites that given Hillary 1:3 odds and Trump 3:1 odds?
Rigging that shit would just cost the site itself money.
It really doesn't matter whether the votes are from deadbeat millennials or not, fact is they're not going to trump.
minorities barely live in the north where most swing states are
this is why the hispanic vote is completely worthless, btw. About 80% of them live in a handful of states already decided
Hey thanks for starting this thread OP instead of visiting any of like 5 constantly updated generals dealing with exactly this.
Hillary's support is a small group of people with lots of money and a media creation. She does not actually have fans with any of the masses she just has media engineered support that makes it look like people actually tolerate her. You can tell based on when you talk with people and you notice that nobody actually likes her.
Of course he has zero chance. He's a meme candidate that is only popular with rednecks and idiots. Without women and Latinos it is impossible to win the presidency.
as seen by Brexit millennials don't vote even when massive political decisions are on the line.
latinos don't live in states that matter
inb4 you think cubans are latino
I live in Florida and most cubans support Trump so you are right.
ofcourse they do, cubans hate mexicans because mexicans give them a bad name
Rasmussen. They said Romney woudl win too.
Romney was on track to win until he completely flubbed october and basically disappeared
A lot can still happen between now and November. Don't be ridiculous, of course Trump can still win.
Yes and the Brexit explains why
The bookies, the media, the polls, they all got it wrong and it's the exact sentiments that fueled the Brexit that are fueling Trump's rise
People are fed up with the status quo and the media and "intellectual elites" are so out of touch with the feelings of the average man that they might as well be reporting from Mars
also, that's not true. Rasmussen had Obama at +1 at the start of October and Romney at +1 at the start of November. Both within error.
Currently, Hillary has 247 votes to Trump's 191 (and I'm being generous about Arizona).
Another 70 votes lean Hillary with 30 remaining in true tossup range.
>minorities barely live in the north where most swing states are
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lean hard blue regardless, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado all have high Hispanic %s, Virginia also has a high minority %.
It's a small group of people with big money, businesses she backs, the media, and lots of politicians. When you consider that companies like Google, Facebook, and even Twitter are shilling for her, things look a little scarier.
But yeah, most people don't like her, and the ones that do support her for shallow reasons. I've even met a guy who works in her campaign, when I asked him what parts of her platform he liked, he told me he liked her because she was well-rounded.
They don't matter. Trump needs much much more support among women and even white men if he wants to win. It's extremely difficult to win without any minority support, and trumps public opinion is shit among the sheeple
>Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lean hard blue regardless,
>he thinks pennsylvania blue is the same as liberal blue
that's cute
What's wrong with reuters? Any burguer boy explain to me.
Well of course he can win, but the time argument and the % argument aren't the same thing.
If the election were being held today and I had to bet my life savings on one candidate, I'd bet on Hillary.
That he CAN change his position does not mean his position is not currently TERRIBLE.
yes
Get rich and put all your savings on Trump then.
and yes
Democrats are only oversampled by 6%.
reuters is one of the clinton foundation's top donors
politico.com
If Hillary does win she can't be any worse than Obama
I really just don't want a Democrat picking multiple SCOTUS justices and the next president will
Heller was one justice away from being "the 2nd Amendment refers solely to single-shot muzzle-loading smooth bore black powder flintlocks"
Is there an image collage?
>he thinks Pennsylvania is a swing state
I'm confident in saying he is not in as bad a position as the media portrays. Does he have an uphill battle? Yes, because American's are very shallow voters and will just see the media saying its hopeless and agree with it, but it is far from hopeless.
Despite what retards like you think, not everything is RED BLUE RED BLUE.
George Bush has far less appeal to PA than Trump does, and if you don't understand why then that's the problem.
...
>State he poll +7 in grey
>States he is polling ahead in blue
wew lad
is this 2008-12-16?
>not everything is RED BLUE RED BLUE.
As polarized as this country is, that's exactly wrong.
(you) for the keks
Yep, you have no idea what the state is like.
...
>+7
It's +11, but the poll was from fucking November.
Most recent poll has him down.
>voted Blue since Reagan
Yep, you have no idea what a trend is.
if the election was tomorrow
He just needs to flip PA and FL, both of which are very close, while hanging on to NC and OH, both of which are very close
It's a coinflip at this point
It's not hopeless, it's inspiring that he made it this far, but there's a long long way to the top of hill, and the fuckers are dug in deep.
>if the election was tomorrow
the polls assume turnout is even. So no, this map is incorrect.
See
I need more like this:
dailycaller.com
Tell me, who was the last presidential candidate that ran on a pro-worker message?
You don't understand Pennsylvanian demographics you jackass.
She'll be worse than Obama is some areas, and better in a few. She'll get to appoint a ton of lefty pro business justices, push for gun legislation, aggress against Russia/ Iran and whomever else the Jews want. The best thing is she'll no doubt have some scandals and so nobody will want a female president for awhile, and I don't think she'll kow tow to sjw's as much as people think. She'll be good for big business and the American hegemony, but working class people and patriots will be left out in the rain for the most part.
The WaPo poll was 36-24-33 for D, R, I. That's a decent oversample of D, slight under for R, and large under for I. I makes up the largest group currently in the US. Reuters-Ipsos didn't have their methodology up, at least when it came out.
Bill Clinton, Borack Obama?
Except when you realize that PA has been hit hard by offshoring, and IIRC contains a lot of fracking jobs, which Clinton has dissed in the past
>Most (((recent))) poll
>Ignore the retarded statement about BLM
>That won't effect the poll numbers
wew lad just stop let me spell it out for you
NV, VA, PA grey
IA, CO, NH, ME split 1 red
FL blue
She won't kowtow to SJWs at all, despite her talking points she is no feminist and never has been. She's Machiavellian to the core
She's a neocon through and through and I don't understand why so many people fail to see this
nix the except, glanced at your post didn't realize you were vouching for Trump in PA
>penn, va, nevada
wew
I'm using a combination of polls and word on the ground. I have him winning Ohio even though Hillary is polling better there
FL is virtually tied but I think Hillary will edge it slightly just because of the anti racist voters. Trump will probably take the lead there after his "I'm not a racist" speech coming up soon
PA will rely on Pittsburgh and Philadelphia charter schools. If he adopts the position of allowing parents to send their children to charter schools rather than shitty unionized public schools as his advisers told him to recently, then he'll win PA handily.
Colorado is also close but it will be irrelevant if he wins PA and Fl, pic related
funny how a clinton outlier always slips in there to keep the average steady.
I wonder ((((why))))
Barack Obama certainly did not run on a pro worker platform since FDR because we really didn't need one during the Cold War
In fact Obama's 2008 campaign platform was devoid of any substance aside from healthcare and revolved around "hope and change"
yea, this is our target.
She will a little bit, just to cement her legacy and up her re-election chances. But she'll disappoint the shit out the far left Bern tier voters, which will make for some good lulz
Analysis for Tampa show that republican voting trend is more likely in Florida. I mean take what you will from that I live in Tampa which is pretty liberal in my opinion and I've seen a massive change in how people support Trump a lot more lately.
yeah, and it's always from WaPo/ABC and Reuters/Ipsos. I don't count them like I don't count Rasmussen.
My brother and his fat SJW girlfriend were hardcore Bernouts til the bitter end and they're saying there's no way in hell they'd vote for Hillary
They aren't gonna go vote Trump but they will stay home
Bernouts hate Trump because he's a rich white man but they hate Hillary because she is the system, and everything that's wrong with it, incarnate
It's funny because they can't really give a reason why they hate Trump other than "he's racist" but they can give you an entire manifesto on why Hillary sucks
Betting websites don't rig quotas mate. For any event, they don't care about the outcome, they just care about money. Therefore they adapt their quotas such that they make a profit either way the pendulum swings.
In other words: if a MMA Champion were to fight a small child, the quotas would be low for the champion and high for the child, but not because the bookmaker believes the Fighter to win but because more people (who believe the fighter to win) put higher money on him than on the child.
If it were any different, the bookmakers would effectively take a bet themselves and that is not a good business model.
Same goes for Clinton vs. Trump. More betters think that Clinton will win, therefore her Quotas are low and his are high. How these betters come to their collective opinion does not have to be based in reality. Constant media shilling for her might have something to do with it I guess.
VA's a red state, there's just a lot of black people there who came out to vote for King Nigger in 08 and 12, but that won't happen this time.
Betters are not all knowing just like that massive Brexit disappointment. They fail to see just how pissed off the average person is right now and assume their usual guesses keep holding true.
I now want a sweating man meme where the two options on the buttons are:
"The media is biased against Trump!"
and
"Trump plays the media like a fiddle!"
If Trump picks a good VP, starts hitting Hillary HARD on the ads and demolishes her in the debates it's much more likely than these early polls suggest.
That's good to hear. Having a southern city on Trump's side would counter Miami, Orlando, and Palm Beach nicely
Keep in mind you have to look at the aggregate of polls and even take into account that some of them have oversampled democrats or certain demos. Take the aggregate between Trump and Hilary and if it's like +7 for Hilary remember even if this is spot on then Trump only needs half that like 3 or 4 points to vote for him to close that gap not 7. One other thing that isn't being accounted for is the draw of the LP this time around perhaps even the sleazy greens. People voting for those third parties are more of a detriment to Hilary than to Trump and will eat into her numbers.
The problem is there are no good VP candidates for Trump
He needs to pick a political veteran who sits on the fence but that guy just doesn't exist
what is wrong with Flynn?