TRUMP ALREADY LOST

Where were you when Trump lost the election?

google.com/amp/mobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/upshot/hillary-clinton-has-a-76-percent-chance-to-win-the-presidency.amp.html?client=safari#

Other urls found in this thread:

npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/06/22/483070540/britains-bookies-odds-are-u-k-will-stay-in-e-u
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-bookies-have-always-made-a-remain-vote-favourite-and-the-odds-continue-to-shorten-a7093971.html
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

Wasn't it like 95% for Hillary 2 months ago?

That's not how probabilities work.
There are 2 candidates, each one has a 50% chance to win.

Remember journalist talking about how gambling odd was favorable to the Remain?

>huffpo is involved
this is not all biased

Nice try Paco

Just like Brexit right?

so if I run against Hillary I have a 50% chance to win?

When has the media been right about Trump's campaign? Wasn't he supposed to be crushed in the primaries?

How'd that go?

Sounds like a reasonable percentage.
1/4 is nothing to scoff at

It's not flipping a coin.

>murrican """""""""""education""""""""""""

It was 80% last week
It's going down

npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/06/22/483070540/britains-bookies-odds-are-u-k-will-stay-in-e-u

>Britain's bookies say the smart money is on Remain.

"At the moment, Remain is the odds-on favorite at 1 to 4, so that equates to about a 76 percent chance of the U.K. voting to remain in the EU," says Jessica Bridge, spokeswoman for Ladbrokes, one of the U.K.'s larger betting firms.
>so that equates to about a 76 percent chance of the U.K. voting to remain in the EU," says Jessica Bridge, spokeswoman for Ladbrokes, one of the U.K.'s larger betting firms.
>76% chance of UK staying in EU

>ny times
>credible source

Where were you when you got discredited for the shillfaggot you are?

sage

What were the odds of leave winning brexit? what were the odds of trump becoming the republican candidate?

Remember when Brexit had an 8% chance of passing?

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-bookies-have-always-made-a-remain-vote-favourite-and-the-odds-continue-to-shorten-a7093971.html

>one group of people have been steadfastly consistent over the outcome of the EU referendum: the bookies.
>And over the last week, they have shortened their odds dramatically, going from 4-6 (implying a 60 per cent chance of winning), to as much 2/9 with an 82 per cent chance of victory – while in the past 10 days the polls have swayed between a 10-point Brexit lead and a narrow two-point margin in favour of Remain.
>“I [personally] would make it 80 to 90 per cent that we will remain, as opposed to something like a 50-50 split with the polls.
>“It won’t be by a huge margin – by 55 to 45 per cent – but the vote will be for Remain. And possibly over the next couple of days the Remain odds will shorten even further.”

If Nate Silver has anything to do with that number, which I assume he does, you can trash it. He had Trump at 2% to win the nomination yet here we are today

> he doesn't understand a thing called other factors
Wew lad. Do you think everyone decides their vote by flipping a coin?

Trump called out all the lying kikes awhile ago and since then they've never let up with the bullshit kikery and lying

>CNN is no longer credible
>Washington Post is a joke
>NY times falsifies every article

And the list continues to grow. So many butthurt liberals are upset they won't get their nigger or jew or clinton in the office again and they decided to just go all out with the bullshit lying. Trump is already the President, the primaries are really just going to be a confirmation on what we already know

you might as well in this cucked country

Arround the same odds as Brexit. Really makes you think huh?

Came here to post about this. I don't think anyone can reasonably predict how elections will go unless they understand why people vote for what, all the bookies and government thought people were only voting leave because they were racists who didn't know what's good for them and never listened to the working class people who were tired of the EU, instead listening to "polls" which I don't think have ever been accurate for determining large scale political outcome.

I can see it's a similar situation in the US where the establishment insists people only vote Trump because they are bigoted racists who don't know what's good for them.

How will Trump ever recover.

HOLY SHIT DRUMPF BTFO REMEMBER WHEN HE HAD 0% TO GET THE NOMINATION???

>3rd world hell holes don't know about theoretical probability
I came here to laugh at you.

doesn't even make me think since this election is largely based on who wins Florida and I'm about 95% sure he will win this state/

Fuck you and your stupid face for eating this bait.

at this point i'd say yes since you are basically up against a criminal. If you are brown it's probably 85%.

Besides the year of happenings 2016 will go down as the year of Pundits eating humble pie. I'm not sure if that Dirty harry president of Philippines was predicted the win or not, but the EU referendum as well as Trump have been a categorical defeat of soothsaying punditry and the media time and time and time again.

And like you say, the factors behind the voters will be critical in those final months. I will not count my chickens before they've hatched and predict that Trump will win - I think he will, but that's tarnished by my hopes and desires rather than a purely rational view. However:

The possible incidents that will hurt Hillary's chances are obscenely higher than the possible incidents that will hurt Trump's chances.

Hillary, as a self-identified continuation of the Obama administration, has to have either a major economic success in the 4th quarter or some major foreign policy success (as in - ISIS is destroyed, we capture or kill Baghdadi, Putin or the Ayatollah is overthrown and a stable pro-western regime takes power almost overnight with no chaos or unrest or civil war). She won't get credit for the low price of oil given how long that has been going on before november. Meanwhile what does she have as a major risk to her popularity? Anything that hurts Obama and his legacy. So that means:

-More chaos and unrest in the middle east, especially if it can be tied to her (Libya, Iraq).
-Obama being limp dick against the Chinese (vs mister trade war with China)
-Russia doing another Ukraine and Obama not standing up to it.
-More cop-killing.
-More race-rioting.
-Either continued economic impotency we see today or an economic downturn (which is probably the #1 factor to make or break hillary. If the economic goes to shit before the election then Obama gets blamed and Hillary gets thrown into shit creek without a paddle)

The only thning Trump has to fear is a scandal and he's weathered so many it's going to be hard to imagine anything able to sink him short of being on record saying "Fuck the hook nosed jews" or that he is literally playing the republicans for chumps.

No rational person can see any possible positive hail mary for Obama's last months. He won't be able to turn the economy around in 4-5 months, there will be more international chaos not less, no chance of some foreign policy rapproachment that will not be seen as bending over for a foreign power, no chance to stop the crime epidemic or copkilling.

Like every election it'll be "who do you hate/fear more", but there's no new ammo against trump while there will probably be new ammo for vs hillary.

If you could guarantee that Hillary would start a revolution/open the FEMA camps, I would vote for her in a heart beat. This country is beyond fucked and as accomplished as Trump is, I don't think even he can fix it. If HIllary wins, there's no way she does anything even remotely positive for this country, so that's at least one win for the Right. Trump could literally cure SuperAIDS and people would still hate him.

Let's get this civil war started already, fuck.

>mexican """warlocks""""

Our Dirty harry still has an ongoing feud with the media because they shilled for the more traditional candidates during the election.

>By Josh (((Katz)))