Be honest, what are the actual chances of Trump winning the election?

Be honest, what are the actual chances of Trump winning the election?

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projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-presidential-debate-schedule/
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100%, screenshot this shit

100%

100%

Cooler candidate always wins.

30%

...

100%

...

He's delivering the greatest speech in American history right now, he can't not.

100%

Better with each passing day

42%

0%

100%

I am indifferent to the whole thing. But it is obvious.

0%

...

99%

They are really strikingly low. Probably around the 20 % mark

He's within the margin of error in virtually every poll. It should be a doozy come November unless he blows it.

35% as it sits now.

The problem with Shillary is she's been in the public, political eyes for decades now. This is a new thing for Trump. She knows the system.

I'd abstain from voting if I lived in the US this election. Either way it's going to burn.

If Trump puts a tariff on Chinese and other foreign trading, then they'll pull out their investments in the USA. This will cause either a bad recession or a depression.

Honestly I kind of want to watch the world burn and go live innawoods so Trump might be the good candidate if you want that too.

This is the percent probability of a Clinton victory by state

49% Trump
49% Hillary
1% for Libertarians

This post is accurate +/- 3% nineteen times out of twenty.

explain the teleprompters and trump will win

why did he pick pence? I know cuckservatives will like him but isn't it more beneficial to get independents?

Independents don't like Hillary.

0

Kek wills it

>2 candidates
>100/2=50

50% each

duh

he's pivoting to the independent voters

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

But he doesn't do error analysis for some reason. I'm not sure if it's because polls don't always included MoE's or what but he has never included it. It might also be because extrapolating errors is actually an entire area of research in statistics and math as well so it's not an exact science in itself.
Whatever the reason his probabilities only become more precise the closer you get and you can generally assume that right now the error margin is fairly high (probably in the 20-30% range)

Post this in all the jonson shill threads

50/50

0

About 60%

except ford was incumbent

Deal with it. Hillary has the meme
Magic now.

He's going to win. I can't believe it's actually going to happen. The next 4 years are not going to be boring.

62% in FL seems a little high. I think it'll be very close if the nigs and kids don't come out so much to vote.

Its nearly certain that he will win.
Lets be honest, he will absolutely destroy hillary in debates, she have absolutely no idea about anything.

Are those not for other guests and they just bother not to move them?

When are the debates again?

100%

Very soon, not sure exactly but soon, i think they'll start within a month.

Hillary might as well be the incumbent.

This situation is more like the 88 election. Where GHW Bush Sr ran as a third term of Reagan. Who was very popular at the time.

>Being so Trump-pilled that you literally start typing the way he speaks.

wtf I HATE kek now!

This will be a funny election, that's for sure.

0.0%

What a nervous election that must have been, it swapped from Carter leading, to Reagan, tied for a while, then Carter leading and finally Reagan winning.

I don't know if my heart can handle this election any further.

lol no
The US is not like any other country, their election process is massively drawn out. First one isn't until end of September
uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-presidential-debate-schedule/

87% according to Proffesor Helmut Norpoth. His model has correctly predicted every election since 1996, and when applied to previous elections also correctly predicts them (with the exception being 1960)

Kek givkek and kek takek away again.

Swing voters actually existed back then.

Well, they still do, but they were like 30% of the country instead of 5%-10%.

Dude, FL is fucking filled with democrat snowbirds from up North.

Around the same chance as the UK had voting for Brexit

include me in the screenshot if he wins MAGA!!!

What about the independents, amigo?

Nah, the opposite. Brexit was tied or leading until a week before the vote.

There will only be one debate because Clinton hates public appearances

I do not understand why Shaun King is still a thing. He'll I can't understand why he wasn't LYNCHED. He reminds me of J-Roc from Trailer Park Boys.

A
FUCKING
LEAF

...

Voting for someone that isn't Trump or Hillary is pretty much wasting the vote.

Which is kinda shitty when you think about it, people have to choose black or white.

what province you in user? I want to join you

this is the worst election I've ever seen

We won't know until October when the big guns come out. Assuming the Dems don't have a horrific October surprise it's probably like 75% right now.

Nate Bronze (Demoted because he was so wrong during the primaries) puts Trumps current chances at 40%

Check'd

100%

Nice rebuttal
Small town Ontario.

Honestly there are a lot of cards other countries can play against the USA. China could decide to collect $1.2 trillion in debt directly owed to them by the US government.

>meanwhile in canada.jpg
>no chinese

not gud, i r8 0.8/8

They may or may not be for the other speakers. Still though, during his other rallies Trump never needed them because he was speaking semi-impromptu and did not need them, but now during arguably one of the biggest conventions that may lock in votes for the general he'll need to keep things to a time table and on track.

At least it's not 0

No It wasn't you fucking filthy liar

Remain was leading the entire fucking campaign until 3 weeks before the vote, then Leave overtook for about two weeks before tapering off a bit resulting in the extremely close result we got.

7000000000 percent chance

About right, maybe a bit more.

One advantage Hillary has is that she's pretty much at rock fucking bottom. The only thing she can do now that's worse is actually be indicted. If you didn't know any better you'd think the Democratic Party was actively seeking the worst possible candidate you could imagine.

If the GOP's most popular candidate in recent years can't beat the most unpopular Democratic candidate, it will be a Democrat dynasty for a long while.

A border wall could be a good thing for Mexico as well. It could force Mexico to become more self reliant, and to make new trade pacts with other countries worldwide.

Absolute zero.

Hillary is backed by the most powerful people in the world. Neither the law nor democracy will stop her.

oh for fucking sure

all trump wants to is to be president, that's all he's ever cared about, he has no stake in actually running the country

he can't do any of the shit he's promised, especially not altogeter, he's literally just trying to get as many votes as possible

and the awful thing is its working, people are eating this shit up

and hillary hardly any better

I'm so fucking scared for my country

Long while meaning until they plunge the country into civil war.

anyone who lives in Florida can tell it is a Trump state. I even live in liberal Tampa.

Currently, realistically: 40%

It was 20% two weeks ago.

I hope that's what happens if he gets elected, but I still worry that it could have reverberations in the worldwide economy that haven't been seen since the 1930's.

She does seem to know how to rig an election. I don't know if Trump has the connections to do the same.

This is why the remainers lost their shit when we voted leave, it was supposed to be a sure thing. Do it America. It's Trump time.

1100%

It's probably a good thing Shillary has the Democratic Convention after the Republicans, to get in the last word and use it as a response to the RNC.

So are ya Chinese or Japanese?

>We voted leave
>Laos

sauce?

ONE
HUNDRED
PERCENT

he's got this it will only get better the closer it gets to the election date. It's obvious to everyone except the most blatant shills.

She may be untouchable because of her corrupt assets.... but all we have at this point is hope lads, that and Trumps ability to convert bad press and situations to his favor. If you look at all rises in his polls they closely correspond to moment when he does that. Recently, the plagiarism accusation shit.

I lived in California last 20 year but first come from Laos.

>I think it'll be very close if the nigs and kids don't come out so much to vote.

>young people voting

kek'd

Those skinned faces are creepy as fuck. How can people do this shit?

Not very high, but possible.
Like 25%.
Demographics will be his biggest challenge. He polls at literally 0% amongst blacks in a couple of states. He polls near 0% among hispanics, blacks, other non-whites in many states.

And it's not like white people are fully behind him either. There are plenty of whites who won't vote Trump.

Plus third parties will eat into those numbers from both sides, but probably more from Trump. Libertarians don't support him at all, while Sanders-ish Dems are more likely to support Hillary.

So, yeah, slim but possible.

>China could decide to collect $1.2 trillion in debt directly owed to them by the US government.
Wew lad, that's some nice middle schooler politicking you got there. Now go on and learn about things like "bearer bonds".

Zero percent. He completely fucked up the convention and has about an 85% dislike/distrust rate from the general public. Hillary wins and wins by 200 electoral votes. What a fucking sham.

Really makes you think

This is the delusion that the media spins. You cannot drive through Florida, a state that is Hillary favored, and even find one sticker or flag for her. The ratings for her are completely media generated and I'm confident the election won't even be as close as they make you believe.

According to Nate Silver it's 40 percent, I'd say lower though