New poll shows Trump ahead by 4, he's closing the gap now in the aggregated polling

New poll shows Trump ahead by 4, he's closing the gap now in the aggregated polling.

Out of the last recent polls 4 have Trump ahead and they are also the ones with the largest polling data

Other urls found in this thread:

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear-is-the-other-party/
gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx
wikileaks.org/dnc-emails//fileid/12945/6362
census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p20-577.pdf
gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html
washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/21/hillary-clinton-hit-a-milestone-today-and-it-wasnt-a-good-one/
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

You should wait a couple of days and then you will see that Trump is back down by like 10 points. Trump can't win retards!

Hillary's so fucked it's just people havn't realized how horrible she is because she shuns reporters and pays people to shill for her.

I was reading a poll yesterday that 2.7% of Berniefags like Kaine

This morning some article comes out about Berniefags loving Kaine, and how he's a great choice

So which is it? The media is just desperately shilling over one another for Hillarybucks

Great news. But don't get too excited.
This is most likely a post-convention bump. The Dems'll get one too.
It'll take a few weeks for the polls to level out and show anything really predictive.

>Trump is doing good
>all of a sudden Trumpfags don't call the polls rigged anymore

How come you can tell where RCP rigs the graph? It moves like a normal graph then whenever trump would pass Hillary they pretend there's significant "3rd party support" that boosts her up as trump goes up

>The Dems'll get one too
Not after those leaks.

They never did you dumb sandnigger.

Sup Forums isnt one person

They might, the DNC might shape up to be a huge train wreck though so it could go either way

Like most of the stuff WikiLeaks dumps, I doubt it'll have a pronounced effect.
But, in all fairness, I haven't even read enough of them to know if they should.

People back Hillary because they dislike Trump. The media has been very, very hard on him. Half of the country thinks he's a psychotic, dangerous egotist.

The good news is, people don't go to the polls to vote AGAINST someone. We saw that with Bush II. People fucking hated him, but it wasn't enough since nobody ever liked Kerry.

The people who like Trump will pull this election. Ignore the polls and focus on Trump's likability ratings.

They are still rigged. Trump should be ahead by 10 pts now

I like how you shills don't realize your end game using this weak comeback

THE POLLS OFFICAL DONT MEAN SHIT AND YOU ALL LOST A TALKING POINT THAT WILL NOT BE COMING BACK

The DNC is going to be a chaotic shitshow filled with farting Bernouts, angry BLM nignogs, maligned hispanics (KAINE SPEAKS SPANISH, THAT'S SOMETHING), a few women in hijabs, and Hillary having a seizure on stage. There's not going to be a post convention bump. There's going to be a post mortem and body count.

OFF BY ONE FUCK

The Democrat convention has a bunch of celebrities, a mom of a gas station robber, "victims of gun violence", and a bunch of angry Bernie delegates and supporters.

then we will have to hear a dozen people talking about "how historic it is for the first women candidate in the general election", and Hillary's fake and shrill politician voice.

Trump has already won.

Thing is, people who vote Hillary still hate her for the most part. Once they accept that she's shit and stop voting for her, they won't go back ever, they will have lost hope.

Meanwhile everyone expectes Trump to be a glorious faggot, once someone votes for Trump they won't stop supporting him.

Hillary's trend will be downwards, Trump's will be upwards.

I would expect a bounce likewise for Clinton after her convention next week. Polling will not settle down into an equilibrium that has prediction power until about the middle of August once both candidate's numbers stabilize.

That's a nice caricature you have there, but if you want to treat politics like more than a spectator sport you have to be realistic.
Despite being a horrible, lying, corrupt cunt, Clinton knows how to run a campaign.
Look at how fast her people reacted to Pence.
Shit could totally go wrong at the DNC, but judging by the way both campaigns have been run so far, I wouldn't put money on it.

I would like to see a poll from 0 to 100, that shit makes it look like its far when in reality is close.

If you look at select past elections like the ones with Ford and Reagan, you will notice that around July we start getting these U shaped convergences. If these are timed correctly Trump ought to narrowly win.

Some polls are rigged.
CNN is obviously part of the Hillary campaign so their polls could be disregarded.
NBC/WSJ have had garbage results in the primaries, with results sometimes underestimating Trump anywhere from 10-20%, way beyond any MOE. So these are garbage as well.

Then there is Rasmussen, which is leaning Republican (though with renegades within the right it's hard to tell how much they lean for him).

And the small pollsters should always be taken with caution.

Most of the ABC/NBC/WoPo are also heavily invested for hillary, but it's hard to tell exactly how much they skew the polls. Though in some of their polls the fix is obvious, some of their polls may be legit. I think generally their GE are fine most of the time.

>The good news is, people don't go to the polls to vote AGAINST someone.
Maybe that was the case a long time ago. BUT THAT WAS A LONG TIME AGO.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear-is-the-other-party/

>We saw that with Bush II. People fucking hated him, but it wasn't enough since nobody ever liked Kerry.
Dubya's approval ratings were actually in the 60s during late-2004 and didn't fall through the 50% floor until earlly 2005.
gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx

Totally true.
That's why even though they said Romney was behind in 2012 he still w... oh wait.

Clinton's campaign is staffed with schmucks - I don't think they're competent; they're pudgy, monolingual managerialists who microwave dinner and collect 75K a year to read liberal articles on Salon and regurgitate them to their peers

>she shuns reporters

No, that's Trump.

MR DONALD J. TRUMP

CLOSE THAT GAP

>Clinton's campaign is staffed with schmucks
I don't think their performance bears that interpretation. You can call them liars and opportunists, which they certainly are.
But, considering what they're expected to work with, that campaign is a well oiled machine.

No wonder Sup Forums is full of hillary shill threads right now.

Nobody is voting for Hillary. The ballot might as well read "Trump" and "No Trump". That's essentially what the last two elections were with respect to Obama, and we saw how that turned out. Nobody liked McCain or Romney, Republicans were simply voting against Obama, and they lost.

You need enthusiasm for your candidate AND disdain for their opponent to win an election. Hillary will lose in November, for the same reasons Republicans lost in '08 and '12.

The polls are rigged. They all over sample Democrats and women but Trump is leading in spite it.

If you don't think enthusiasm won Obama the election in 2008, you don't know anything about American politics. I remember that campaign. People were fucking crazy for the guy.
Romney was complete shit, but people loved McCain. At least until he pick Palin as a running mate.

Romney was establishment just like Obama. The media may have favored the later, but the game was already over as soon as both were nominated.
Either was a win for the globalists.

Examine the reactions outselts like CNN/WoPo,NYT,WSJ/NBC ect have for Trump.
As if he is the antichrist.
They make up and propogate lies about him (racist). They refuse to cover events that support him.

Hell, most of these operate like a Hillary election machine.

These outlets have proven themselves as unrelialble liars. Why should I trust their polls?

Especially WoPo/WSJ that failed way outside of the MOE in the primaries.

There are more women and Democrats in the American electorate.

Source

You're... supporting his assertion.

Are you clinically retarded?

Stop being reasonable on Sup Forums

Lets hope for the future of all our children that he wins.

>If you don't think enthusiasm won Obama the election in 2008

That's literally what I said

This one will hurt them
wikileaks.org/dnc-emails//fileid/12945/6362

>Oversample
Do you fail in simple English?
Yes, there are more women than men that vote.
Yes, there are more registered dems than registered republicans that vote.

Both are irrelevant. As many pollsters exaggerate these numbers, as well as minorities.

Huh?

Trump mocks (((reporters))), but he's perfectly happy to talk to them, and actually gives straight answers. The amount of controversy he's kicked up deliberately is proof of that.

My posts are headed with a fucking African flag!
Cut me some slack. I dindu nuffin.

(Seriously though, fucked that one up. Feels bad)

Everybody gets a boost after their convention/nomination.

We'll see if it holds.

I love when shitskins post on Sup Forums

It's like real time proof of the massive IQ gap between us.

You all wanna know why polls are REALLY bullshit no matter what?
>Sample of a group of people who actually answer a telemarketer call who still have a landline telephone.

Let's think about that for a second. How small and shrinking a percentage of the entire country that is.

Gender description in Table 2
census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p20-577.pdf

Party lean and registration tracking:
gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Don't u mean drumpf haha epic pwnd drumpftards haha
Kill yourself

NATE SILVER SAYS TRUMP GOT NO CONVENTION BOUNCE HAHAHAHAHA SUCK ON THAT TRUMPTARDS

"Before we run through the polls, a note of caution: The convention bounce is going to be harder than usual to study this year. That’s because in contrast to 2012, when the polls were extremely steady for weeks before the conventions, they were on the move heading into the RNC this year. In particular, they were on the move toward Trump — or away from Clinton — with Trump whittling down what had been a 6- or 7-percentage point lead for Clinton in late June into something more like a 3-point lead by mid-July."

>Trump mocks (((reporters))), but he's perfectly happy to talk to them, and actually gives straight answers.

Holy shit...

I wonder how bad Hillary's numbers are going to get after the DNC shitshow.

Daily reminder that Brexit was """""polling""""" at -10 points and ended up winning by over 1.5 million votes.

If polls are already starting to show Trump ahead before the debates, and before the next happenings, and before the rest of the leaks come out, then the election is fucking over.

He STILL hasn't even started his media ad blitz yet. Can you begin to comprehend how fucking savage his anti-Hillary tv ads will be?

Who cares about that poll? This is the one that actually matters and is far more accurate as well!

electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html

This will be another kennedy vs nixon. They may both be equally popular, but clinton will unfortunately win in the electoral college

They did though. When Hillary is winning the polls don't matter, they say whatever you want, it was a rigged poll using a small amount of people (mostly minorities), we criticised where the poll was taken etc.

When Trump wins in the poll it's legitimate and is further proof of the silent majority rising up.

Come on. I want Trump to win and basically make a 4th reich but don't say stupid shit like that.

now you know how I feel all the time here

>They may both be equally popular

But they're not, Satan

>Senegal Intellectual everyone

Cheeky little chink

Accep empire

Recent experiences prove that polls are meaningless (ie. Brexit). The most accurate "poll" is asking your colleagues, friends, acquaintances and people on the streets (some journalist before Brexit predicted a Brexit win that way despite Remain being ahead in the polls). From what I understand, nobody really likes Hillary Clinton and her being assured victory in November is just a big meme).

>with farting Bernouts
WHY DOES IT MAKES ME LAUGH FFS IM A GROWNUP

Maybe they do, given some pollster. I doubt that in the aggregate such error means much. There is also an argument that they undersample Democratic voters because if they don't include cell phone outreach and spanish-language interviews.


>People were fucking crazy for the guy.
Romney was complete shit, but people loved McCain. At least until he pick Palin as a running mate.
I would argue that Palin was a good pick in that she actually ginned up enthusiasm in the GOP base in late 2008 and kept McCain from losing more thoroughly than he did (flipping say Georgia and Louisiana along with North Carolina and Indiana).

Kek did not smile on you because you forgot the mother dindus who are speaking at the dnc. Off by 1

Well when you over sample Democrats, I don't know what else to call it.

>polls are meaningless
>gives the perfect recipe for a shit poll

Maybe Bernie will go full rato on Hillary and urge the people to "vote their conscious" at the DNC. He would probably be assasinated backstage instead of just yelled at though.

Trump attacks reporters directly to their face, both parties using their first amendment rights. The left then pretends to worry that Trump will infringe journalists' first amendment rights.

Hillary attacks reporters behind the scenes using shady, and sometimes even illegal tactics. And nobody blinks an eye.

Not with that leak faggot

>polls are meaningless
>because they can't predict the future with a 100% accuracy
Brexit proves nothing, the odds were of about one third and they won, it's not that weird.

Also, your alternative is shit

don't you want to live in a minority-white country? are you a racist?

Possibly on the Palin thing. She came across as dumb though. And not just to people determined to hate her. When she couldn't even make up a magazine or newspaper she read regularly... Jesus, that's crazy for a national politician.

More like raped to death by BLM activists in a back alley.

"United States of Mexico" already exists though.

It's called Mexico.

The poll suggests that they are close enough in popularity

The polls are biased towards Hillary. If the election was today, Trump would win the popular vote. Absolutely.
See: The Brexit effect. The false flag and shilling against Nige's Breaking Point reduced the lead Leave would have had.

"post convention bump' happens every year. Nothing to see here.

huh?

1) If the convention goes well Clinton +4 (regression to the pre-Convention/Comey announcement mean).
2) If average Clinton +2 (Current RCP Avg.Solidifies)
3) If terrible Trump +1 or +2 (Rasmussen/Gravis Polling results are not outliers but trends)

Mexico's name is "United States of Mexico"

>The poll suggests that they are close enough in popularity

Yes, the polls do suggest that. That doesn't mean that's actually the case.

You just lost the augment retard

>tfw WInston Salem is a two and a half hour drive

Please come to Raleigh or Fayetteville.

THIS IS THE ABSOLUTE MINIMUM TRUMP NEEDS TO WIN

They are already banning DWS from the Convention for that, so I'm not expecting nearly the level of trouble. Sanders is not Ted Cruz, if he was he would have murdered Hillary over her emails from debate one and became the nominee.

Hillary hasn't talked to the press since last year. Trump talks them it seems like every week. That's how they get their headlines

Either way, Clinton is going to win. There is not a chance in hell Trump stands a chance in the general election, since he fails to appeal to independents and centrists.

they're conquistadors then aren't they :^)

...

Either way, Trump is going to win. There's not a chance in hell Clinton stands a chance in the general election, since she fails to appeal to liberals, conservatives, and whites.

>washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/21/hillary-clinton-hit-a-milestone-today-and-it-wasnt-a-good-one/

The last tim HillaryClinton held a press conference: December 4, 2015

200 DAYS AGO

I kind of feel bad for Hillary. The few ads I've seen (dog barking and Pokemon Go) are pretty good, but the ads he'll be running soon will be savage. Poor Hilldawg.

I don't think you recognize that 9/10 liberals support clinton. The other 10% are not voting. The bernie children at my college are now pretty much all rallying behind clinton. Most centrists and independents, who are not extreme are probably going to ignore trump as well. And whites... Are you serious? Have you seen Clinton's rallies?

Can you tell me how plausible scenario this'd be?

are you fucking retared

Meanwhile conservatives arent even backing their fucking nominee. If there's one thing that's maddening, it's that. Those cunts need to die

Ohio and Florida will be tough battlegrounds but very feasible for Trump to take. Pennsylvania? Not so sure about that one. But Trump needs Pennsylvania in this scenario to win. I think he can do it, but right now it's a bit of a long shot.

>Wikileaks releases email detailing massive DNC corruption
>There wasn't a mass shooting or terrorist attack the next day to drown out the news cycle.

The election will be between people who want America to remain what it is so that they can suck what's left of it dry until they die (Drumpf) and people who want to start over and try something new (Clinton)

Obviously Jews, the old media, old corporations, old people and everyone else who is entirely dependent on the current system will shill for Drumpf, but young people, educated people who want to do something with their life, new media and so on will choose Hillary, just like with Brexit. It will be an election between mediocrity and optimism.

Highly unlikely

You are a fucking retard.

>Meanwhile conservatives arent even backing their fucking nominee
90+% of them are now there are just a few rato followers and a few high ranking neocons who aren't but the party is very unified now