Phew

Phew.

Other urls found in this thread:

strawpoll.me/10861043
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And just like that, we say good bye to Trump, and hello to Hillary.

Goodbye cruel world.

Not even the latest, he's still at 46.3%

also
>nate fuck my shit up silver
Didn't he already say that his projections mean jack shit this election in an interview?

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No, his opinion pieces about Trump not winning the primaries were just that, opinion pieces. Data science is not yet sufficient to predict primaries because there are too many moving parts and not enough available historical data. General election predictions have been a solved problem for a decade now. This is where Nate shines.

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Cool story bro

Oh sit he's about to do it

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>those daily 20% swings

what do we take this guy analysis seriously ?

Another huge problem with his model this year is there are alot more outliner polls wise than 2012 or 2014. His political forecasts should really focus demographic intentions and how they shift rather than altering a forecast over something as irrelevant as a 750 nation wide bloomberg poll. That's just my two cents though. Nate had and use to write the right idea about this kind of thing before he started pulling embarssingly off political insight this year out of his ass.

>alot

Its still what 4-5 months until elections? Hilary has never been one for slug fest. Especially when more emails come out, or some other scandal that comes out the woodworks. You know she has a closet full of skeletons.

Nate dosn't know shit

Nice dubs

Nate was wrong on Brexit, the 2010 midterms, and the 2014 midterms. I'm not trusting that guy, he's just too full of himself to question his models.

i actually found this nostalgic

>Nate "2%" Silver
He had Trump at 2% to win the primary. TWO PERCENT. Pathetic

This is the polls plus data for anyone interested.

Trump is at 47.2% for Silver right now
and 57.2% in election held today.

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He was right about 2014

Wtf, I guess I'm a #cruzmissle now

Wasn't Trump at 55% just the other day? What the fuck happened

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Nice dubs

>tfw one county in all of WA state makes up for the entire state :/

Cool story OP

Anyone could fucking guess that Obama was going to win a second term, Most all presidents get their second term win. Not to mention the GOP was still shitting on itself and Romney fucked up and stopped campaigning months before the election

Because people keep posting the now-cast which shows Trump winning if the election were held right now. That prediction currently favors Trump since it reflect the post-RNC bump and not the post-DNC bump. It will correct itself in a couple weeks and look more like this one.

>Nate was wrong on Brexit, the 2010 midterms, and the 2014 midterms.

So he basically just always predicts that leftist globalism will win, and is right when it does and wrong when it doesn't? Like the proverbial broken clock that is right twice a day?

When will you optimismniggers finally fucking get it? Nobody gives any conceivable shit about Hillary's scandals. There've been hundreds. She's been caught lying, cheating and fucking people over but people will still vote for her because "ew, Drumpf."

It's over. It was over from the beginning. None of the white cucks, niggers, spics and chinks fucking care about Hillary's character. They'd vote Democrat if the fucking Son of Sam were the nominee because they're retarded subhumans who are goaded into being bootlicking slaves in exchange for gibs doled out on whitey's dime and for the opportunity for their uncle and his 57 children to come to the United States too.

As much as I like Trump, there's no way he can win. Whites are too cucked and afraid of being called racist to work together and vote for him. The cucked whites combined with the niggers and spics is too much for Trump to win. They'd rather grovel before the minorities, begging for forgiveness since they've been brainwashed by the Jews to do so. Get ready for Hillary, and ready your gun for the coming niggerpocalypse.

>So he basically just always predicts that leftist globalism will win
Pretty much, I always see him used when it's something anti-trump but never brought up about anything else

Most common arguements
>2008 predictions
People were pissed at bush and black vote was in the bag for a black president
>2014 predictions
Most presidents win their second term regardless, not hard to put together
>Muh sports predictions
Not hard if you pay attention

>due to convention bump
>implying hillary wont get a huge bump

Trump is at 52.9% right now. Why do people do this when everyone else has a computer?

There's no historical data for predicting something like Brexit. That was just a shot in the dark based solely on polls, which is basically a coin flip. The polls showed Brexit losing. What other possible numbers could you use to prove it would win?

Midterms are hard because voter turnout is so volatile.

General elections are easy.

The last people to get a huge bump before Trump were Gore and Bush. She will most likely not.

>When will you optimismniggers finally fucking get it? Nobody gives any conceivable shit about Hillary's scandals. There've been hundreds. She's been caught lying, cheating and fucking people over but people will still vote for her because "ew, Drumpf."

Actually quite a few people care about it, she's losing quite a bit of the young vote due to it. Not that the young vote is ever a good turn out but ever bit helps, I know quite a few people who were going for bernie who are just now not voting because they are mad at the DNC.

Remember someone not voting for shillary is always a good thing

>post dnc bump
The DNC was a fucking disaster dude

We don't have the numbers on the Bernouts leaving the Democrat party and those that went to Stein, Johnson and Trump.

Except all of Sup Forums

as of a few hours but with the convention they will spin it in her favor look at the polls as of now.

we live in a new technology age

i guarentee you if they had their speeches today they would get a similar bump. trust me, i wish i could be super excited about trumps bump but i'm going to wait a few days until i see hillarys success/fail due to convention

>see
>Wow seeing the democrat party lose it's shit for 3 days really pushed me on the right side of the fence

She won't. Bernvictims got railroaded and BLM will continue to be upset that crime is illegal.

t.cuck who wasn't here

i honestly think youre giving the left way too much credit for being free thinkers. they dont give a fuck about that stuff, they care about celebrities and fancy shit, as sad as that is

>No dates
Honestly Romeny might have gotten in, slim regardless, if he didn't throw his campaigning out the window. He basically stopped months before the election and rode on "well I'm not Obongo!"

>polls-only
It's funny how everyone points out that Nate's polls-only predictions are usually wrong, but considers them to be the best when it looks good to them.

Polls alone are not sufficient. Polls-plus accounts for historical data and other trends.

Oh I was, and that's why I know just how wrong Sup Forums was.

>Post DNC Bump
>Stadium cleared out after Bernie shilled for Hillary
>Constant protests
>Email leaks
>People booing speeches
>suppressing free speech protests by DNC

Hilary won't get a bump from the DNC. It was a fucking disaster that prove the Democratic Party is splitting apart, while Trump's RNC showed he was able to pull the party behind him in spite of everything.

Obama won both elections with less than 53% of the popular vote while receiving HISTORIC turnout.

The highest level of turnout a democrat could ever receive and he couldn't get more than 53% of the votes.
>2008 53%
>2012 52%

Are you going to sit here and tell me that Hillary is going to get HISTORIC turnout? After she just knifed the progressives in her party in the back? Obama was likeable, Obama was inspiring, Obama was young and cool. Hillary is some white bitch that Bill Clinton didn't want to fuck.

Do you know who is actually getting historic turnout this cycle? Trump. Trump has gotten more republicans to the polls than ever before. And that was just the primary.

>white cucks, niggers, spics and chinks
If they show up to vote they'll vote Hillary, yes. But turnout is now an issue. I expect they'll spend a billion dollars trying to fix this issue, but I doubt if it will be enough.

>implying that the far left won't flock to Stein and her even greater promises of Gibs and SJeWry.

Nate is easy bait

Those posts were taken days before the election.

He didn't just predict Obama would win. He predicted almost every single county in which Obama and Romney would win respectively.

I honestly think there are a few centrists who lean that way that physically cringed watching that spectacle. Today was the first day it even got any positive press

Convention Bounce, Baby!

if nobody cares about her scandals, why did she take a dip in the polls after the DNC leaks. nice try concern troll shill

I fucking hope so dude, all trump has to do is shut his fucking mouth for a few days and let his lead build momentum

doesnt help you have every social media + news outlet shilling for hillary

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If you were here you would see half this board was obama cucks at the time

why won't you people realize that the far left hates Trump, his followers, and everything they stand for and think that no matter how bad Hillary is she's the lesser of two evils
They're not going to go third party they're going to suck in their pride and vote for her because they think Trump is literally Hitler

Don't worry too much about the latest astrology readings.

Worry about the the information war.

Both candidates are betting a lot on meme magic. Show me that you're true wizards.

He still is in the one model. There are three on his site.

She will get a bump, but it doesn't matter if she did or didn't. RNC-bump will fall and the prediction will be the same regardless.

Isn't Trump leading in the polls right now? And the Russians have something like every email she's ever sent?

Shill or not he is right.

Zionists have subverted the people longer than any of us have been alive. IQ is low, propaganda is strong, there are enough sheep to continue this hell.

Trends

Trump has some overlap with bernie.

He isn't Hillary.

The board had more differences in opinion but it was still majority right wing. And they were absolutely certain that it was going to be a Romney landslide victory.

Sure thing cuck.

Once again outright lie by a cuck who simply wasn't here

You're confounding her emails from when she was Secretary of State with DNC emails.

It really doesn't matter until after the first debate.

Trump needs to nail with some actual meat and potatoes policy.

>unironically believing that a few pissed off Berntards will be enough to counter the votes of millions of spics, niggers and gooks combined with guilty liberal whites

She's going to win because she doesn't have the word "racist" branded to her. Ask any stupid fuck in the street and they'll associate "racist" with Trump because he laps up the kike narrative. In our society, being a racist or even being suspected of being a racist is the most heinous crime that one could commit. They've successfully billed Trump as the "crazy racist who wants to destroy the Earth.' He can't overcome that.

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Not gonna happen

Sorry I meant the Russians have every email Hillary and all of her corrupt friends have ever sent.

What am I lying about? That the right wingers on Sup Forums were sure Romney would win?

FBI Director Comely said, that even if her private email server had been hacked, they could never tell, because of the way it was set up.

There was evidence of hacking attempts.

What was it???

Read what the graph is showing you, numbnuts

Hail SATAN!

I dunno, Trump's playbook, is that there is no playbook. The smart thing to do would be to keep on rambling and tweeting like he has done the entire campaign. Then in the debate he is Stone Cold Serious Business. IT would be so unexpected, that the shock would kill Hillary's campaign.

>some overlap
how much of it is actually going to help him user lets be real here
a few thousand bernouts over at reddit aren't going to do anything

About being here cucky . You probably showed up on Sup Forums about 2 months ago.

You got it the other way around. Progressives will stump for Hillary. It's the working class white voters she has to worry about. Obama actually had good numbers with working class whites. Hillary's are dismal.

Trade Protectionist

Non Intervention

The System is rigged, and boy did the BernVictims learn that.

What's the matter? Did you find a few of your posts in that pic I uploaded?

That's why you brand her as soft on "cop killers" because she blamed Whites after a Black man murdered 5 cops in Dallas.

It's the one thing dirtier than racist.

Blue Collar Rust Belt vote is looking solid for Trump. Which means Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are going to be a hard fight for Hillary.

There's not gonna be any debates dude.

there are 3 debates scheduled and 1 vp debate.

Hillary will want to debate. As she thinks and sells her self as some expert policy wonk.

strawpoll.me/10861043

>It's over. It was over from the beginning. None of the white cucks, niggers, spics and chinks fucking care about Hillary's character. They'd vote Democrat if the fucking Son of Sam were the nominee because they're retarded subhumans who are goaded into being bootlicking slaves in exchange for gibs doled out on whitey's dime and for the opportunity for their uncle and his 57 children to come to the United States too.
Then they just need to get disenfranchised, don't they?

The reason Obama did better was entirely demographics, the same reason that Hillary is going to do better than Trump.

>Any pollster or poll aggregator like Nate Silver who says Trump is going to win Nevada is full of shit.

I wouldn't put it past her. Trump can play dirty too though.

Black vote no longer looks solid for Hillary.

Periscope showed a lot blacks and a lot of BLMniggers upset with Hillary and the Democrats, outside the convention.

>Progressives will stump for Hillary.
Have you been asleep during the DNC convention? Bernies gone and nearly every progressive is pissed. Sure, the progressives that vote in the fall will vote Hillary, but at this point, they aren't going to go phonebanking and canvassing for her.

She's not the first black president and she's not running on progressive ideals like Obama was (antiwar, free healthcare, etc). The only reason the progressives are going to show up for her is either their hatred for Trump or if Soros cuts them a check. Either way, expect turnout to be down for DEMs in November.