BREAKING POLLS

TRUMPING IN NATE SILVER'S POLLS-ONLY MODEL...

... FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER!

>clinton convention bounce

HAHAHAHAHAHA

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What's the over-under on days until Nate """"tweaks"""" his methodology like Reuters did?

The old polls were inaccurate. So in our New and Improved Polls (TM), we survey 80-5-15 D-R-I

Please tell me there will be a thread for every microupdate until the election.

I think Nate is getting tired of trying to out cuck the Nate of yesterday

Thank you for Correcting the Record. I am now #MentallyHill

This is a big deal, this is the first time Trump's chances have been greater than Hillary's in the polls-only model EVER. This is a long term prediction model.

Silver is getting nervous. He wants to come out of this with his reputation intact.

The entire poll community knows the lies are becoming too obvious. They're covering their bets for the Trump landslide in November.

It's 2016, there will be about 10 threads per hour per poll update from now until the election.

And the shilling will blot out the sun come debate season.

Ignore Nate silver, mathematics majors and PhD statistics can show you how he has no idea what he is doing.

Meanwhile on now-cast

>Michael Moore saying Trump will win
>Cenk Uygur saying Trump will win
>Nate Silver saying Trump will win in a landslide

Are they being honest OR is this a tactic to mobilize Hillary voters through panic?

Yes, they are different methodologies and making predictions on different things.

Hilldawg is also going down right now in Polls-Plus

what did he mean by this?

His original methodology which let him get 100% accuracy in 2008 and 2012 is fine.

Aggregate lots of polls, weight by size then average them out.

Its just clt and lln basically.

What he started doing this year like media impressions and guesswork about narratives is retrded

>loses his very own home state
It's over. Trump is stumped.

DELETE THIS

>Nate Silver
a couple of months ago he was convinced Trump has less than 2% chance.

>muh data analyst genius

>Cenk Uygur saying Trump will win
No way, link?

That was 5 days ago. It's 51/49 now. Polls-Plus is 60/40.

Nate Silver is smarter than to call a win this early in the race, and people like you who twist his words to make yourself feel better are why people hate data journalism.

youtube.com/watch?v=jQvvmT3ab80

>nates life

youtube.com/watch?v=09nq4RFqiT8

>day x
>Shillary is leading
>hurr Trump btfo

>day z
>Trump is leading
>durr Hillary btfo

Who care for polls before debates.

You realize he apologized for that and said he pulled the number out of his ass, right? He's sticking to polls from now on

Because trend lines. In 2012, Romney was reliably trending downwards all year until November. This is interesting stuff.

Only elected politicians have a home state stupid. Hillary isn't a New Yorker but it's still her home state.

You have point. But it's getting bit annoying with all the btfo here and there.

I can't wait for the happening to begin all happenings.