Let me guess, Polls don't matter anymore. Is that right, Trumpets?

Let me guess, Polls don't matter anymore. Is that right, Trumpets?

Other urls found in this thread:

aol.com/article/2016/07/29/the-year-of-neither-why-reuters-ipsos-is-tweaking-its-u-s-pr/21441339/
zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-29/why-reuters-tweaking-its-presidential-poll
twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/759620538113273856
youtu.be/CGDVp0IePFE
vice.com/read/why-did-everyone-think-that-youth-turnout-in-the-referendum-was-only-37
nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=0
latimes.com/politics/la-na-trump-polls-20151221-story.html
twitter.com/AnonBabble

i am now a #cruzmissile
time to hand over the delegates, dahnald

>Trumpets

$0.05 in your account

Looks like they're tightening actually.

Remember that time the polls accurately predicted Brexit losing horribly?
that really sucked, I was rooting for Brexit.

Posting this early
At least wait till the new ones coming on monday showing clinton +8

Our argument is constant. The polls have a liberal bias. So, if Trump is losing in them by a small margin, he's still in the lead. If Trump is winning in them, he has a huge lead. No amount of shilling will change our views on the polls, or expose some 'contradiction' in our opinion of them.

Now piss off CTR.

The UK hasn't left the EU, and May has signaled its non-binding.

>Being in denial this badly.

Trump's going to be President, Britain left the EU, the political pendulum worldwide is swinging to the right. Deal with it.

That doesn't have anything to do with the fact that the polls were inaccurate.

he's making a point about polling, dumbass

aol.com/article/2016/07/29/the-year-of-neither-why-reuters-ipsos-is-tweaking-its-u-s-pr/21441339/
Actual rigged polls.

Your analogy fails because Brexit didn't even happen dude
Also, it's a lot easier to predict general elections than it is to predict something that has never happened before
try again

>he thinks polls are accurate and not just used to influence public opinion

>Trump is winning
>THE POLLS AREN'T RIGGED! HILLARY BTFO!
>Hillary is winning
>ITS RIGGED
You can't have it both ways, dumbass

It was predicting a close tie the week before. Polls swung heavily towards brexit as it drew near.

Also
>completely misunderstanding what probability is

Nationwide polls don't matter
Only polls in swing states mattet

If you talk to 75% of the people in the US they'll tell you that they're voting for Trump, I think these polls are way off - they clearly 'fixed' their methodology as they were told to.

They're almost always rigged in her favor. Sampling disproportionately large leftist groups.

Actually we can. Our argument is essentially

"Regardless of the current place of the polls, adjust for liberal bias with a 3-5% bump to the realclearpolitics average for Trump"

So if Trump is losing by a little, he's actually winning by a little. If he's winning, that means he's really winning.

Nobody pretends Trump was winning when he was 20 points behind Hillary. But when Trump was rising like wildfire in the polls, and the whole average is brought down by a new poll thrown in that shows, out of nowhere, Hilldog up 5%? You bet your ass someone is using a poor method poll to throw off the average.

whether or not it happened is irrelevant
what matters is the way people voted
are you actually this retarded?

It's happening you fucking lardarse yank twat.
We have 3 leave campaigners in charge of it and they created a whole new ministry just for the exit. They just need time to get their shit together and get staff in because Cameron made no plans for losing the referendum.
And May has not said it's non binding, she said Brexit means Brexit. Some nigger labour MP called for parliament to ignore the result.

>trump starts leading in the polls
>((coincidently)) change the way polls counted and polls included the same day
Trump is just a loser, am I right goyim?

Hillary Clinton didn't even win her own primary and almost got chased out of the DNC and we're supposed to believe that Trump doesn't have a massive lead

Ok then

Memes aside, polls are only as good as the methodology provided.
If a detailed description of a poll's methodology is not available, it is worthless.

It's not hard to see that a lot of the polls out there have a bias for Hillary, particularly when they're coming from places like NYT.

The polls are rigged irrespective of who's winning.
Trump is in the lead.

Except we know the polls are rigged in Hillary's favor, especially Reuter's who admitted they are doing it (just google this not hard to find). No one claimed ever that the polls weren't still rigged while Trump was winning, it's just that when he's winning he's winning by more than we think and in this case he is still winning.

>leftists hate Hillary for cucking Sanders, they'll go with Trump
>polls only show Hillary winning because leftists

>0.4% lead to Clinton
>Right after the convention where she's supposed to get a giant bump
We're supposed to care how?

Nice proof, shill.

> calls me a shill

I said Trump is winning no matter what the polls say. Are you retarded, Amerifat?

If you talk to 200% of the peopel inthe US they'll tell you they're voting for Hillary.

hilldawg leading
>muh jews!
>rigged!!!!!!!
drumpf leading
>build wall paco!!! he ehh e xDDD
>MAGA :DDDDDDDDD

>Your analogy fails because Brexit didn't even happen dude
>Poll predicts Britain will vote Remain
>Britain votes Leave
>HURR THE BOLLS WERE CORRECD BEGAUSE BREXIT WON'T EBEN HABBEN XD!
Are you merely pretending?

>Hillary had a convention dump instead of a bump

Did you not see a week straight of boos at the convention? She had higher negatives than Trump even before all of the email leaks / confirmation of rigging the primary

The election is over already, the people know it, all that's left is to remove the elements of the media that insist on denying the new reality

zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-29/why-reuters-tweaking-its-presidential-poll
They removed the neither option in favor of Hillary.

Also lol at BREXIT NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE HOW COULD WE POLL FOR THAT

It's not complicated conducting a poll. You phone up a large amount of people and ask them who they plan to vote for. There's some counting involved, but it's not hard math, muh advanced statistical model are just sophistry trying to cover up how simple polling is

Most polls are rigged, if it wasn't obvious. By the ruling class. Polls are their meme magic.

>Trumpets
>Trumpkins
>Trumpeteers
>C-come on user. They are creative. R-right?

This. Trump is going to win by over a hundred electors, huge landslide, Hillary's going to lose even some blue states due to Trump's crossover appeal and Bernouts voting for Jill Stein.

Not to mention horrendous voter turnout on the Democratic side. You don't just put a known criminal up as your nominee, then reveal she rigged her primaries, and expect a political victory.

>.4%
It's over. There's not coming back from this.

>Polls swung heavily towards brexit as it drew near.
kek, no they didn't. Remain was leading in the polls.

>no proof
Stop shitposting ya leaf

>a trump shill is not a shill

>Most polls are rigged, if it wasn't obvious. By the ruling class. Polls are their meme magic.
What way is actually the right way to rig it though? Do you put the establishment higher so people believe it's the most supported position, or do you put it lower so the opposition becomes complacent?

The thing that scares me is rigging the polls/the media has actually already brainwashed enough people. I have been seeing a lot Hillary supporters start saying, "Politics are annoying anyways who cares anymore." Kind of thing and I am in Minnesota.

I refuse to believe someone can be this retarded.

Pretend your side is winning until it becomes truth. The point is to demoralize the opposition so that they won't bother to show up. It makes your supporters energetic and confident as well...

It's not conspiratorial, humans lie by nature, and they love to confirm their own biases. In aggregate, the polling can never be trusted for those two reasons alone

>it's not shilling if it fits my views
Awe, adorable Trumpkins. When will they learn?

I identify as Trumpet. My pronouns are tre, trim, tris, and trimself. Don't fuck it up shitlord.

>"Politics are annoying anyways who cares anymore."
That's a "I'm not going to vote" sentiment. It will only work in Trump's favour.

My favourite thing about polling is it implies there's people who haven't decided who they're voting for yet, or something changed their mind, as if that ever happens

This

wtf I hate polls now

twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/759620538113273856

Virginia General Election: Trump 46% (+4) Clinton 42%

>It makes your supporters energetic and confident as well.
But does it? One of the reasons Remain lost is because millenials couldn't be arsed voting when they thought their side was going to win anyway.

youtu.be/CGDVp0IePFE

Yes it does, people are very fickle, and don't want to be on the losing team. It sounds silly but they genuinely want to be remembered as being 'right', I think the permanent history of you on social media has only amplified this effect

People love the strong horse

Do you think Minnesota might go red this year? I'm highly doubtful in that, but if I guess a lot of people are saying that maybe there's a chance

This is Hillary's convention bump, only it isn't a bump in this case.
This is what happens when you spend the entire convention shitting on your opposition - both your numbers and theirs go down.

The new poll that has hill up by 5 % you know the one that brought the average down over represents democrats by 16%, and under represent independents by 40%, if you are liberal you should be absolutely terrified by these results

Does he see our deaths equivalent?
muslims don't seem to....

Fuck off

>implying

Also, they misrepresented just how many millennials turned out to vote... it came out a few weeks later that quite a few millennials actually voted leave.

The rabbit hole into polling and 'demographics' gets deep

vice.com/read/why-did-everyone-think-that-youth-turnout-in-the-referendum-was-only-37

I wouldn't even be sure that most millennials were against Brexit, it's a convenient media narrative but doesn't seem to be the case. Again, the elite remain control by imposing a false reality on the rest of us, a consensus reality which says half of people are liberal and half are conservative, young people are liberal and old people are conservative, etc. Who knows if it's really as true as they claim? How can you trust them?

holy shit you are dumb. elections are elections. the polls did not predict the result on election day, end of story. it doesn't matter if they were voting for Brexit or to change the name of the country to "Refugees Unwelcome Here"

So what was the youth turnout, according to your research?
I've just got the figures back from our other survey, which is from a fresh sample, and what we found is that turnout among voters eighteen to twenty-four was sixty-four percent. Now that is an estimate, because it's always an estimation, but it comes from an actual survey where people were asked whether they voted or not, and whether they registered or not. We also controlled for over-reporting of electoral participation, because people always have a tendency to tell you that they voted even if they did not. So even when you account for all of that, we find is that turnout among eighteen- to twenty-four-year-olds was about sixty-four percent. That would be the highest turnout among eighteen- to twenty-four-year-olds for the past twenty-five years.


(The media spent weeks claiming that only 36% of millennials voted at all - perhaps laziness, perhaps malice, but their mistakes always seem to benefit the opposing narrative)

It was not predicting a close tie. Stay was up about 4% and the Bloomberg tracker had leave at only like 20%

>inb4 Bloomberg
Whatever

If the polls are rigged in Hillary's favor, and Trump is leading anyway, that means his lead is even bigger than the polls shows.

It's the same idea if you are leaning on a scale.

I will now vote for Hillary, adopt African babies, and identify as genderfluid.

>trump speaks at RNC
>his poll numbers go up

>hillary speaks at DNC
>her poll numbers go up

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW

Wow surprise suprise explaininat ion ignored again

>PM says "Brexit means Brexit"
>creates Brexit Secretary
>Receives call from Aussie PM asking to start trade negotiations immediately
>Liam Fox (Foreign Trade Minister) begins informal negotiations with his US counterpart
>PM visits Scotland specifically to get that cunt Sturgeon back in line
>EU commission appoints someone to negotiate Brexit with the UK
Guess he's right lads, Brexit ain't happening.

We now have evidence of THREE separate ways the polls are inaccurate. 1st is underestimation of older white voters:

nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=0

2nd is voters are less likely to admit they support Trump:

latimes.com/politics/la-na-trump-polls-20151221-story.html

3rd is Reuters has been caught changing its methodology to favor Clinton:

aol.com/article/2016/07/29/the-year-of-neither-why-reuters-ipsos-is-tweaking-its-u-s-pr/21441339/

not to mention they've already been caught oversampling Dems by a lot (inb4 there are more Dems -- yes, but they sampled much higher than the actual ratios of Dems/Repubs)

You would think that, but it's the opposite. The amount of people who become complacent and don't vote (for the leader in the polls) is much less than the amount of people who become totally demoralized because their side isn't winning.

There is a large swath of the electorate (10-25%) who have no idea what the fuck is going on and simply votes for whoever they perceive as "the winner" or "the majority must be right so that's who I'm voting for."