Let me redpill you on the Monster Vote effect:
thealternativehypothesis.org
1. Primary Turnout
In the 2008 primaries, the Democrats had 37.18 million, while the Republicans had 21.9 million.
In the 2008 general election, Democrats had 69.5 million, Republicans had 58.1 million.
In the 2016 primaries, the Democrats had 30.52 million, while the Republicans had 31.0 million.
2.
Difference Between Open and Closed GOP Primary Increases
Open +64.89%
Closed +19.82%
Difference +45.02%
Difference Between Open and Closed DNC Primary Decreases
Open -29.57%
Closed -10.65%
Difference -18.92%
3.Implications for the GOP
However, closed GOP primary states represent 265 electoral votes in the general election, while open primary states only represent 178 electoral votes, and the rest are hybrid and I don’t know how those are counted in a binary “open / closed” way. If we assume the potential voters is roughly the same as the electoral votes of those states, then open primaries only represents 40.1% of the potential voters.
This implies that the real non-republican voters who wanted to vote in the primaries was actually 19.53 million. We’ll call this the “Big Monster”. I did it based on electoral votes because I’m too lazy to go state-by-state and count populations.
4. Implications for the DNC
But like with the GOP, open primaries are only a part of the democrat primaries. Open primaries represent 201 electoral votes, closed primaries represent 173 electoral votes (again the rest are mixed, which I don’t know how to classify, and I just split that difference.
Since open primaries only represent 53.74% of electoral votes, assuming they roughly represent 53.74% of voters in the democrat primary, this implies that the real decline of non-traditional democrats who wanted to vote in the democrat primary is actually 7.93 million. We’ll call this the “Big Decline”.