Why Trump Will Win: The Monster Vote

Let me redpill you on the Monster Vote effect:

thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/08/08/the-monster-vote/

1. Primary Turnout

In the 2008 primaries, the Democrats had 37.18 million, while the Republicans had 21.9 million.

In the 2008 general election, Democrats had 69.5 million, Republicans had 58.1 million.

In the 2016 primaries, the Democrats had 30.52 million, while the Republicans had 31.0 million.

2.

Difference Between Open and Closed GOP Primary Increases
Open +64.89%
Closed +19.82%
Difference +45.02%

Difference Between Open and Closed DNC Primary Decreases
Open -29.57%
Closed -10.65%
Difference -18.92%

3.Implications for the GOP

However, closed GOP primary states represent 265 electoral votes in the general election, while open primary states only represent 178 electoral votes, and the rest are hybrid and I don’t know how those are counted in a binary “open / closed” way. If we assume the potential voters is roughly the same as the electoral votes of those states, then open primaries only represents 40.1% of the potential voters.

This implies that the real non-republican voters who wanted to vote in the primaries was actually 19.53 million. We’ll call this the “Big Monster”. I did it based on electoral votes because I’m too lazy to go state-by-state and count populations.

4. Implications for the DNC

But like with the GOP, open primaries are only a part of the democrat primaries. Open primaries represent 201 electoral votes, closed primaries represent 173 electoral votes (again the rest are mixed, which I don’t know how to classify, and I just split that difference.

Since open primaries only represent 53.74% of electoral votes, assuming they roughly represent 53.74% of voters in the democrat primary, this implies that the real decline of non-traditional democrats who wanted to vote in the democrat primary is actually 7.93 million. We’ll call this the “Big Decline”.

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/user/fringeelements/videos
imgur.com/a/W0TIN
imgur.com/a/OGXkb
archive.is/7DaVm
naoquica.com.br/2013/02/bom-dia-ernanda-passos.html
twitter.com/AnonBabble

5. Implications for the General Election

Model Turnout
GOP “Little Monster” 65.93 million
GOP “Big Monster” 77.63 million
GOP “Giant Monster” 110.83 million
DNC “Little Decline” 65.24 million
DNC “Big Decline” 61.57 million
DNC “Giant Decline” 52.85 million

6. If the “Monster Vote” is real, why isn’t it showing up in general election polls?

Well there’s one obvious answer to why it’s not showing up in general election polls: the “Monster Vote” isn’t real. That certainly would explain it!

Another depressing answer is that the “Monster Vote” to some extent is real, and Trump is getting it, but is still losing anyway.

But then we get into the third possiblity: the pollsters aren’t weighing the “Monster Vote” demographic correctly this election.

Relevant to this theory is that “Monster Voters” tend to have low “education” and lower incomes – and so if pollsters weight by education and income based on past elections, and if in this election we are going to get more “Monster Voters”, then they will underestimate Trump’s support by underweighting the kind of people who will vote for him.

Frankly, I have no idea how they would capture this group, because their weightings are based on past elections, and while we can project primary turnout to get some estimate, there’s no real way for pollsters to tell if the voting demographics in 2016 are going to be radically different from 2012.

In other words: polls showing Trump losing at the time of this article are based (loosely) on the 2012 electorate because that’s how pollsters weigh it. If the new voters are radically different from past elections, all bets are off. Pollsters could guesstimate the size of the “Monster Vote”, but I have no clue how they would factor it in. So they don’t.

6.5

(That said, pollsters are overweighting democrats, and underweighting republicans and independents assuming 2012 turnout projected onto current party ID numbers).

The new open primary GOP voters amount to 7.83 million, and the lost open primary DNC voters amount to 4.26 million. That’s a swing of 12.09 million from 2008. There was some rumblings that fear of Trump would mobilize Democrat turnout; well we haven’t seen it in the primaries. Maybe the “Trump fear” vote will turn up in the general election.

In 2008 republicans lost by 11.4 million votes. The “Little Monster” and “Little Decline” would bridge that gap with 609k left over.

Anecdotally, the size of Trump rallies is visual evidence of the “Monster Vote”. That there is a new “kind of person” voting for Trump; because Mitt Romney voters didn’t really go to Romney rallies. And so it appears that Trump is attracting a new kind of people – the kind of people who will go to a political rally – which is evidence in favor of the “Monster Vote”.

7. Aren’t you just “unskewing” like they did in 2012?

It’s certainly possible. But there’s a few key differences:

My “unskewing” is based on a new bloc of voters that the pollsters have no way of knowing about until they vote, and can only make vague guesstimates based on primary votes. Whereas the 2012 “unskewing” was based on saying the pollsters were idiots.

– Donald Trump gets big rallies, Romney didn’t.

– The 2016 GOP primary saw an apparent influx of people who don’t traditionally vote in GOP primaries, the 2012 primary didn’t.

– Donald Trump is a radically different candidate than Romney was. This creates a possibility for new voters.

It doesn’t make much sense to argue too much, because the reality or unreality of this “Monster Vote” will be discovered in around 90 days.

Makes sense

So, Trump will win

Bumping for creative angle, novelty of idea, and hard work.

Since when did Canadians do an honest day's work?

I don't see any way that Hillary can come close to Obama, plus Trump has galvanized whites like never before.

I still think it'll be close because America is so pozzed, but IMO he has a good shot at winning seeing as he'll likely hammer her in the debates.

This is a good thread, have a (you). Bump!

Where'd you get all of these thick bitches?

I wish, that wasn't my post, it was done by this guy

youtube.com/user/fringeelements/videos

Pretty much a more in depth BPS.

>2008
>nearly 100% of republicans supported the candidate
>2016
>the vast majority don't support Trump

inb4 thread is shilled to oblivion

>Vast Majority
>people actually voting for Johnson
>100% of people supporting Romney

I have a small collection, here are some more

imgur.com/a/W0TIN

imgur.com/a/OGXkb

>primaries

Wew fucking lad

""""""""""100%""""""""""

Yeah 100% supported some neocon cuckservative that was Bush 2.0.

Nothing gets whites excited like sucking Hispanic dick, shilling for muh Israel and more wars.

Nice thread.

I agree with you. It's not like NBC pollsters go into the fucking appalachians where nobody has a telephone or internet to access a poll. But these people will vote for trump. They are invisible to pollsters because pollsters barely think people outside of cities even exist.

If they would just release their polling methods this would be a lot easier.

All these pointless posts when you could have just said he's winning with independents

Nice jarb guise. Read it but couldn't concentrate as I'm watching a live Trump rally and I'm very tired today from winning. I'm trying to find a phone number to call Trump and tell him I'm tired of winning so much.

However, I read one important line in your post. It had to do with rallies.

This nigga has daily, multiple rallies, with thousands, if not tens of thousands of people in packed arenas, High energy, bigly. Now he's using visual representations!

With that being said, it's been reported that, even if she deciders to do a rally once a week, crowds are very small. Low energy!

It's simple to see. Not enough support will correlate to a lack luster showing in voting. This niggas love him, he is King. Praise Kek.

>he's telling the snake story. I love this part.

You guys are mislead by the size of his rallies, the polls are real.

Clinton is better for our economy btw you fucking traitor.

>independents don't think trump is a madman

first based leaf I've seen, good job OP

Complete list of shills working for Correct The Record (the fags posting here
for the past couple weeks). Be sure to visit the "saved from" link, since archive.is
doesn't show the data.

archive.is/7DaVm

Anyone have the video of a lady explaining how trump can win if he catches people that normally dont vote

Are you the fag that makes Obama threads about how Keynesian voodoo and phony low interest rates are good for the economy?

I hope your first born gets cancer, then again, seeing as you'll be fucking your 1st cousin Ahmed, I don't have to hope, it'll be a reality.

These people can't even be considered "independents" most of them care very little for politics.

However for the first time in their lives they have a candidate that is explicitly white and proud of it.

The Dems could have put out a literal fucking rock as their candidate and they would have still destroyed John McCain like the bitch he is.

doubt it considering he hasn't posted at least 30 times in the thread already like an autist and hasn't used to words 'right wing retards' in every single post.

...

Just throwing this out there, the following states had higher republican turnout than democrat: Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan. Yet somehow Trump is down 10% in these states according to polls. You need seem Bernie level math to understand this shit.

...

We all support Trump. A few retiring members of Congress who have nothing to lose and Bill Cristol and his cucks amount to about a dozen Republicans not voting Trump. He may also lose the mormons

Oh, and Iowa and Ohio.

Good read, I will definitely read up more about this. I had never heard of it. I keep telling my family that he will win because more republicans came out to vote in the primaries than ever before.

>who is that semen demon btw?

primaries aren't relevant

naoquica.com.br/2013/02/bom-dia-ernanda-passos.html

Righhtttt

In the 2008 primaries, the Democrats had 37.18 million, while the Republicans had 21.9 million.

In the 2008 general election, Democrats had 69.5 million, Republicans had 58.1 million.

In the 2016 primaries, the Democrats had 30.52 million, while the Republicans had 31.0 million.

>primaries aren't relevant

Your terrible use of memetics wont work on me shill

its over son. you can shill all you want, if you stay to long you take the redpill. if you leave, we are still here.

If they are building a "representative" voters samples, all this statistics will only work for the elections where this sample is actually representative. Trump is not a representative of the past few elections. Neither is Clinton. This polling is total BS. They should sample potential voters and filter by their desire to go out and vote. Ask questions about their past voting record and what they plan to do now. What they do is a disgrace. For some reason these "data scientists" don't understand what statistics is, and have no grasp of theory of probability. They understand fitting the data, though. I make money off their idiocy in the financial markets. Here if the polls are indeed are not sampled, those polls are a bet against. I'll bet some for Trump simply because the polling doesn't seem to be properly constructed. What somewhat worries me is auto-correlation of voting to the polls and other elections fraud. If it wasn't for that' I would bet a house on Trump.

>naoquica.com.br/2013/02/bom-dia-ernanda-passos.html
Thanks.
Too bad Trump is gonna send all these juicy latinas back.
Sup Forums are such bitches. first they loved Trump then when Trump starts to win they turn against him and start shilling for Johnson.

They have an underdog complex.
>Its ok to be the winner sometimes.

Hey, I liked McCain.

He was a war hero.

>record high voter turnout for Trump despite 16 other candidates to choose from
>"vast majority don't support him goy!"

>In the 2016 primaries, the Democrats had 30.52 million, while the Republicans had 31.0 million

Yes and Trump lose on the polls...

>call me a shill
Nice argument

if you fight the fire, it will win.
shhhhhh shill sleep tight, only dreams now

You're not supposed to acknowledge the shill accusations
-0.60 cents

Do you know how the primaries work? It's not the Dems vs the GOP. The numbers aren't relevant. It's a nonsense.

Do dubs count if he is a shill?
Can shills summon dubs?

Yes and thread explain why.

Now read word, think hard and ooga booga come up good answer

i dont know, but will trump win?

The black vote is going to decline dramatically. She should have picked a black VP.

You can tell what you want with numbers from different event/source/methodology, put all together then valid your point.

I don't know but talk about the primaries voters is stupid.

Agreed, the black vote increased by nearly 10% (relative to it's own size) the past 8 years, there is absolutely no way it matches that.

I'd say it goes back to pre 2004 levels, but I suspect it will be around 60% which means roughly 2 million less votes.

Trumpkins are starting to be just as bad as Berniebots.

That's a solipsistic cop out, there is an obvious trend with turnout and likelihood to win, no one is saying he's up by 20 or anything like that, but it's very clear that polls are underestimating him.

GOP had a record turnout

DNC turnout was extremely low compared to 08

Those are facts, saying it doesn't matter is like saying in 08 it didn't matter that the DNC nearly doubled primary turnout for the GOP....we all know how that worked out

Yeah, unfortunately GWB destroyed all faith in the Republican party. Why do you think the Tea Party became a thing?

bumping for based leaf

A lot of people do not vote for Obama because he was black tho...

b-but muh independets! they're sure to all vote for an actual criminal to be president over that meanie drumpf!

One thing I think you guys are forgetting is how the Democrats will literally pay spics and niggers in food just to go out and vote. In 2012, the politically dedicated beaners around here would rent buses just to stuff as many of their less politically-savvy beaner friends as they could and head for a polling station. It looked like those clown cars you saw in cartoons. The promise would be that they'd get free fruit with chili powder or some shit after they voted.

You can expect a lot more of that kind of shit to go down in more competitive states. Dems know turnout will be lower this year, so they're going to try and compensate it with free food and what not.

Dems have always spent millions on bussing Niggers & Spics into the polls

That's why Blacks vote so much when you would expect their lazy asses not to

The blacks 100% did hence the steep rise in turnout.

Yeah you have some cucked beta males and single white moms (also see dykes and homos) that genuinely loved him, but the black thing was also likely in their top 3 reasons for voting for him, you know ,,, to be...PROGRESSIVE!

If Obama was some middle class skinny fat white guy, he wouldn't have done as well.

I know, I'm just saying they're probably going to double their spending.

The GOP should do the same with poor white areas.

Interesting, leaf.

Verily inspired me to contemplate.

It's really really really easy to lie using numbers. Just change some definitions around, massage the data to exclude "outliers" that don't conform to your narrative, etc.

People have an implicit confirmation bias and if you aren't hyper aware of it you'll just swallow whatever chart or graph shows you "data" that doesn't challenge your world view. That's why people brag about Obama's jobs numbers even though jobs havent kept up with increase in population, and median household income is down (meaning people who lost good jobs stopped looking for work or found shitty jobs).

Why does the government love to talk about "Unemployement" for example? Because it doesn't count people forced into early retirement, people who went back to school to get useless degrees cause there are no opportunities in the jobs market, NEETs, women who decided to be stay at home moms when they couldn't find a good job.

Workforce participation is a much better measurement for the health of the economy because it tells you the proportion of producers to dependents in the economy but leftists wont acknowledge this.

It will probably get shut down as racist lol

>a wise leaf

you are a rare

I don't know why they haven't honestly.

The very simple answer is that in polls, they only ask people who have voted before/ vote reliably. Trump ,as he states himself, is bringing in a lot of people who have never voted.

Its racist to only bus a certain demographic.
>unless they are brown or black.

>One thing I think you guys are forgetting is how the Democrats will literally pay spics and niggers in food just to go out and vote
And you're forgetting that spics and niggers will take the money, blow it on drugs/booze and forget to go to the polls because they're fucking niggers and spics

The GOP itself shouldn't although certain people should find cheques for 10-20 grand and do that on their own if you knomsayin

>Blacks vote so much when you would expect their lazy asses not to
I'll bet, when you take socioeconomic class out of the picture, blacks actually vote more often than whites.

>our economy
fuck off leaf. You're not an American and your fucking opinion on our economy is irrelevant

Good read. Interesting way to look at it. I hope this is true, we can't afford to have Hillary run our country into the ground. Pic related.

>our economy
Fuck off, Justin.

shill harder

You're getting paid by CTR to shill you could at least you could read the fucking post you're paid to shill against.

Reporting this to killiery. You're ass is about to have an accident.

lel

who is this cum chum?

>Yet somehow Trump is down 10% in these states according to polls
Because he's an incredible asshole, stupid.
>You need seem Bernie level math to understand this shit.
No, you just need to not be a sociopath, because normal people are repelled by Trump's vile personality and pathological lies.

Romney only had 80% of the Republican vote.. Some say because he was Mormon and there's a small minority of Republicans that simply don't trust that religion ha

The shills are talking to themselves now

>2008
>Romney
American education everyone

Couldn't find her name unfortunately

my god what a bunch of horseshit

how about this: hillary was basically an incumbent and a lot of democrats didn't really believe she was in trouble, so they didn't bother voting

now that she's running against trump, they're all going to vote like usual and maybe even a little more so

literally everything is working in trumps favor. its no doubt in my mind hell legitimately win, i just hope theres no massive rigging that sparks a civil war

Did you literally not pick up a single word from the OP?

Lmao you honestly think that Hillary can energize people like 08 Obama?

You are absolutely delusional if you think that low energy, sociopathic treasonous cunt can draw the tweeners that don't usually vote or have to be really motivated to do so.

She can't even get 100 people in some rallies, but these missing people are supposed to show up to the polls....just lol.

>i just hope theres no massive rigging that sparks a civil war
There probably will be though. Nothing ever goes like it's supposed to

b-but muh polls
muh drumpf is a meanie head
muh minorities

We're going to be kept in the dark by the (((MSM))) all the way until the day of the election. They won't publish anything if it hurts Clinton or the narrative they've constructed.

Minority voters will show up just to off Trump. It was all over before it began.

...

But America is still 70% white. So even if all the minorities vote for Shillary, which is impossible, Trump can still win if he manages to galvanize the white vote. And considering the democrats continue to make their hatred of white people known, there's probably not going to be many of them left to vote by November. Just cucks and feminazis.

Trump holds a double digit lead with independents. Only registered partisans hate Trump, but they are a tiny fraction of the electorate.

Help me understand why African Americans vote for shillary?
Blacks are terrified of hispanics because hispanics hunt them. She also called them suoer predators
Trump wants to reduce numbers in the US.
Why blacks arent voting for Trump baffles me.

This is a good post