I'm going to take advantage of this relatively shill-less period of posting and explain my reasoning for why I believe Trump will win despite the polls being against him.
My argument focuses on 3 factors:
1. Shy Tory Factor/Bradley effect 2. Voter turnout 3. Bias in the polls.
The shy Tory factor is a phenomenon in which those who hold political opinions that are outside of their own life's personal Overton window vote differently than how they poll. Trump is politically incorrect and dissuades a lot of the "moderate" voters from admitting they support him. Trump's support is much greater than it appears and the polls do not accurately reflect this level of support.
When polling agencies conduct polls, they do NOT typically poll first time voters. There are MILLIONS of Americans who have never voted, and were not registered to vote prior to Trump's rise. This so called "monster vote" typically consists of the uneducated and poor. Trump has tremendous support among poor whites who have never voted once in their entire lives, these are MILLIONS of untapped voters that do not show themselves in the polls.
Combine that with the observed increased turn out in the Republican primaries, the amount of Republicans dwarfing the Democrats by millions, the low turnout a candidate like Hillary will generate, and Jill Stein siphoning Hillary votes from Bernouts, and the situation already does not look good for Hillary.
Lastly, what we all know to be true. The polls are biased. Polling agencies purposefully manipulate polls in ways that make Clinton appear to win. Under-sampling independents, oversampling Democrats, or plain rigging. The polls are all conducted by people who are openly anti-Trump and stand nothing to gain by being honest. We have evidence of this here:
Your "facts" are based on a bought and paid for media and a leftist academia.
Julian Hernandez
That plus possibility of rigging votes
Even in fucking D.C hillary got away with murder
Bernie wasn't even listed on the ballot for the first day or two.
Isaiah Peterson
>polls are rigged because Trump is losing you're a literal baby
Jace Nguyen
plausible
Jaxson Wood
Trump will not win. Media supremacy is too powerful. Even if he crawls back in the polls the media will go all out and say he's a pedophile terrorist, cut off all his coverage, make up footage of his supporters chopping off heads ,etc/
The establishment will not just let go of power and let the people vote. They have every means at their disposal to defeat Trump and it is only a question of how much of their true power level they are willing to reveal.
Everytime success seems close, they will ascend to the next level of shilling. You are a long way from the top.
Austin Carter
Here's your (You), CTR.
Michael Torres
Next we have events that can change the minds of those who aren't already on the Trump train to make the biased polls look a bit more even:
1. Debates (3 of them) 2. Wikileaks 3. Hillary's poor health 4. Trump hasn't been using negative ads yet.
If Trump crushes Hillary in any one of the debates, expect a rise in the polls for Trump. We all know Hillary is a shitty debater and Trump is a master persuader. It's not unreasonable to think that Trump can't make something out of the debates.
If Assange leaks his "guaranteed Hillary indictment" at an opportune time, Trump will use it to his advantage. We've already seen what the leaks could do to Hillary's polling numbers. In my opinion the best time to drop it would be a few days before the election or a few days before a major debate.
If Hillary's fucked up health gets worse, or gets more difficult to hide from the public this too will have an effect on her polling.
Lastly, Trump himself has said recently that he has spent ZERO in negative ads while Hillary has spent somewhere around 200 million. I predict that Trump and his team will time his ad spending so as to splurge when Hillary has run out of or is running out of her funding. Negative ads obviously affect polling.
NOW, I think with all that said it's not safe to say that Trump is over or Trump is finished. Quite the contrary, I think things are going his way. Not sure if you've been paying attention, but Bernie WAS winning at some point, the DNC was doing their best to actively rig it.
Depends on how much power the DNC has in the general election and whether they'll be able to rig it this time. Explain Brexit.
Jack Jenkins
Yep, It's obvious Trump is currently winning. Please contact his campaign to make sure he doesn't do anything stupid like dropping out or changing his campaigning style.
t. CTR
Jose Cook
I can't even tell if you people are being ironic or not, calling anyone who doesn't support Trump CTR or a shill
Eli Allen
>Bernie WAS winning at some point what? Bernie was never winning.
Just keep sticking those fingers in your ears friendo, they are yours to do with as you please.
Parker Foster
remember how hard romneys first debate swung things in his favor? and he was a trashbag candidate.
imagine trump giving hilldog a nice schlonging in debate one, mushroom stamping in debate two, and a classy donkey punch in debate 3
Brandon Barnes
I actually just edited the HTML. It's a troll image used to fuck with shills. Not ostensibly, but in terms of support v Hillary. Read the leaked DNC emails.
Gavin Lopez
You are right. :(
Gavin White
wtf r these stars
Wyatt Reed
Too bad many of the normie supporters no longer listen to what the media says. The only ones paying attention are those who decided already to not support him.
Go to ANY Trump support page of facebook and see what they say about the media. They don't listen or believe them. Funnily enough, its similar on Hillarys pages as well-a lot of people are blasting her, outright supporting Trump, and spreading anti-Hillary memes on her posts.
get rekt libshits Trump will wipe the floor with Shillary, and then kick her right in the shit filled diaper
Ayden Garcia
I have autism
Austin Diaz
YOU FUCKING IDIOT STOP ITRTTTTTTT
Kayden Morris
>he's not losing in the polls, but if he is the polls are rigged >if he loses in the election, the election is rigged
Worlds finest memes
James Hughes
No one on Sup Forums says "you're a literal baby" If you're gonna shill at least learn the lingo you fucking inbred 2 cent/hour earning Taiwanese midget infested festering vaginal mucous.
Christian Russell
>No one on Sup Forums says "you're a literal baby" I just did
Carter Sullivan
There's only one solid and clear indicator that Hillary won't win: She is not Obama. If you could trust the media, John Kerry should have easily won in 2004. Like him or hate him, Obama reached people with his words and drew massive crowds. Just like Trump is doing at this very moment. It's too bad Trump wasted his best material in the primaries. Most of it easily applies to Hillary.
Julian Watson
The polls are rigged. Did you even read the link I gave in the OP? That's just one such example.
There is a point however where even if the polls ARE rigged, Trump can still win at them. Let's say for example, that Trump has 90% support and Clinton has 10% support. In such a situation, you could rig the polls in Clinton's favor, but Trump would still be winning. Obviously that's an extreme example, but you get the point.
The general election does have the capacity to be rigged, especially when it comes to electronic voting.
Blake Hill
>Explain Brexit. It barely succeeded, and the media had barely tried heavy shilling.
The establishment was complacent. That will not happen again.
Google stories for Trump today. The media is putting out a lot of feelers. Racist supporters, Pennsylvania, GOP discontent, Robert deNiro, etc. They are putting out feelers for what will stick. By tonight they will have run the numbers, and tomorrow they will decide which hitpiece to run with on Monday. They will co-ordinate on Journo-list 3.0, simultaneous launch on AP feeds etc. The shilling will continue all next week, rinse and repeat.
There is money behind all this now. Big money. Slowly, Trump's support will be eroded and Hillary elected by default. NOTHING will be permitted to derail this. Personally I think the networks will refuse to run some or all Trump ads.
There is too much riding on this, and too many insiders are scared. They will do anything to prevent a Trump presidency, anything to hold onto the rotten bannister for four years more. You are naive to think otherwise. The Rich spokeman incident should have made clear to you what kind of race this is now.
Dominic Gray
If Assange really had anything on Clinton they would have released it already. He may be looking for something, or thinks there is something there. Assange also said hes trying to get Trump's tax returns. Doesn't mean he can or will or that there is anything damning there to begin with.
As for the debates Trump has left so much bate for the moderators around his various gaffes. Its hard for him to press Clinton on anything relating to her email secrecy as he has withheld his own tax returns and information related to the Trump University suite. Its also hard for him to go after her alleged corruption as hes like the boy who cried wolf. He repeatedly claimed Obama and Clinton literally founded ISIS, Obama was born outside the US, hes a Muslim, saying Clinton murdered various people or that Bill Clinton raped hundreds of women. Its unfortunate that he can't bring up legitimate issues because people assume everything he says is bullshit.
The only way Trump can win at this point is with a black swan event. A major stock market crash, a 9/11 scale terrorist attack, Clinton dying, etc. He is absurdly behind in battleground state polls. Its important to realize that Ohio, Florida, Virginia etc. are no longer battlegrounds, they are must-wins for Republicans. Trump can win all three and still loose. He needs to be ahead in those state and pushing Colorado and Pennsylvanian.
I won't deny there's a chance that Trump voter "shyness" is skewing polls, but it could be no where near enough to make up Trumps double digit deficit in turning point states. It could happen, but I'd say its probably less than 1/20 chance. At this point its pretty safe to assume Clinton is going to be president even if Trump gets a bounce like Romney did in 2012 from the first debate. Also personally, I don't think either of them will be very effective as they both share the same weaknesses around trustworthiness, a lot of people don't trust what either of them say.
Lucas Ross
Me too
Nolan Thomas
who is this smug fug
Jack Adams
That was a joke about Trump's tax returns
Parker Perez
>Media supremacy is too powerful.
Sometimes I wonder if there is a global campaign. The media here is very pro-Hilary, and mostly published opinions of Hilary supporters and "experts". Those are hilarious though, including opinions like "Hilary should win because she's a woman". But, yeah, "the quote of the day" corner has already turned into "anti-Trump quote of the day".
I've heard the same thing happens in other countries too, like Australia or Germany.
>Like him or hate him, Obama reached people with his words and drew massive crowds.
Obama always appears to be too scripted to me, probably a little dishonest too. He does present himself quite professionally though.
Elijah Green
>If Assange really had anything on Clinton they would have released it already. No he wouldn't. He has to time things properly. Wikileaks has always dripped information out, teasing the media prior to releasing something big. That's how he operates. He can't release everything at once, or the important things are ignored in a sea of information. >Assange also said hes trying to get Trump's tax returns. Doesn't mean he can or will or that there is anything damning there to begin with. usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/06/wikileaks-denies-effort-hack-trumps-tax-returns/88345748/ >As for the debates Trump has left so much bate for the moderators around his various gaffes. Its hard for him to press Clinton on anything relating to her email secrecy as he has withheld his own tax returns and information related to the Trump University suite. First of all, they aren't gaffes. That is what the media narrative says they are, but in actuality they are innocuous (perhaps even purposeful) statements media spun into fake controversies. Second of all these fake controversies have always existed and Trump has powered through them at the debates during the primaries. Meanwhile the Clinton criticisms are very REAL criticisms and not fake controversies. Clinton cannot handle the heat nearly as well as Trump can and will fold. All those things you listed as bullshit are pretty much real or a calculated move on Trump's part to demonize the opposition in the same way they demonize him. Very persuasive.
Now for the rest...
>I won't deny there's a chance that Trump voter "shyness" is skewing polls, but it could be no where near enough to make up Trumps double digit deficit in turning point states. It could happen
The term is named after the 8+ lead the Tory's got when they were polling in the -1. That's a -9 points due to social pressure against conservatism. Trump is much more un pc than some posh tory cuckservative in the UK.
Carson Campbell
Nobody actually trusts the media though.
Lincoln Jackson
4. Trump has spent millions in negative ads just not on tv 3. That gives her sympathy, it's helpful not hurtful 2. OK - we'll see. FBI has proven ineffective....that will change? 1. Trump is an arrogant ass (that im voting for) but this will not look good next to polished lying big smile grandma Hilary
>Trump has spent millions in negative ads just not on tv Source? >That gives her sympathy, it's helpful not hurtful Someone having failing health and being near 70 years old does not give someone sympathy, it's a bad sign + another angle of attack for Trump to exploit. > OK - we'll see. FBI has proven ineffective....that will change? I'm not talking about the FBI, I know she won't be indicted, I'm talking about the publics perception of her.
Oliver Mitchell
>Everytime success seems close, they will ascend to the next level of shilling. You are a long way from the top. And we'll keep climbing, and we'll keep winning. Surely you of all people must know what it's like to resist the boot-heels of oppression, potato nigger
Robert Garcia
bernie was winning, if you ignore the rigging and the superdelegates, which are out of the general public's control
Leo Howard
>If Assange really had anything on Clinton they would have released it already
I actually don't believe this, and I think that it isn't cognitive dissonance or wishful thinking.
Look at how Hillary, as Scott Adams put it, was successfully able to persuade the public that Trump's IMAGINED crimes as a future dystopian thin-skinned warmongering Hateler dictator was worse than her REAL crimes.
Successfully. She did that.
If Assange released now, she'd just do it again. Or maybe pull a Newt Gingrich money shot during the debates a la last cycle: youtube.com/watch?v=cj7OHEnz9KE
^^Watch it, that's actually as good an example of debate-style oratory as I can remember.
Anyway, Hillary would be able to successfully mute whatever Assange had, even if it was truly damning, if TIME is on her side. But if people go to the polls enraged, because Assange released in mid-Oct or early Nov, then it'll make a difference.
Jace Clark
I really hope you are right because I can tell you we will be fucked if Hillary gets in. We will be royally fucked. I really do believe that its going to take an armed revolution to stop whats going to happen. I think either way Sup Forums will get what it wants.
The thing that I am worried about though is non-whites coming into America will prop up the government longer while all the whites are fighting the government. The non-whites will just be content with how its being run.
Adam Torres
Source? Ever heard of social media?
Facebook has sponsored posts by him nonstop. The amount of followers or potential voters by how much sponsored posts cost....easily millions
John Scott
I'm glad that this manga got big here, Takagi is a qt.
Landon Smith
Sorry, I have no clue what that is. Unless you are telling me Trump gave money to Facebook or something, which seems silly.
Josiah Anderson
It's like you see nonstop ads on TV and ask me for proof he pays for them.
People don't get social media.
Blake Brown
those three reasons are all tactical which is all well and good and in trump's favor, but that only bridges the gap a little when compared with polling data where they'll shine and what will win it for them is strategy.
Jaxson Scott
>1 Could be true, however I think you are overestimating the impact this is going to have. You can't forget that Trump already won the nomination of one of your major parties.
>2 That sounds a lot like wishful thinking. History suggest that the impact of primary turnout on the general election (both on the popular vote and the electoral college) isn`t actually that big. And Republican turnout was actually just higher by a small margin. Also, don`t forget that a highly polarizing canidate like Trumo is going to drive people to vote for the opposition, too. And lastly, you only talk about votes that will be siphoned from Clinton, but don`t forget that republicans are quiting Trump, too.
>3 Hard to make an argument here except >Breitbart
And you forget the thing that is going to have the biggest impact on the election: The electoral college. Trump is doing bad in many important states as it is right now, not even getting close to his promise of putting NYC into play.
Gabriel Harris
Facebook ad. A sponsored post is Facebook lingo for a paid ad.
Who the fuck are you that you don't know this?
Blake Bailey
Not quite sure I understand.
Blake Fisher
I'm not surprised
Levi Flores
When is trump going to decide to spend money on ads? It seems he hasn't really started yet even though hes been collecting donations.
Angel Fisher
>3. That gives her sympathy, it's helpful not hurtful
You joking lad? Nobody votes for the presidency out of fucking pity. Hell look how hard they had to hide FDR being a fucking cripple. They knew he was done if it got out.
Brody Hill
but it is the year twenty-sixteen
Zachary Fisher
What does the polls' sampling look like? What kind of turnout are they basing their expectations of the electorate on?
Bentley Anderson
>You can't forget that Trump already won the nomination of one of your major parties. But you can even see this in the primaries where Cruz was projected to win and Trump won. The polls aren't that accurate. >That sounds a lot like wishful thinking. History suggest that the impact of primary turnout on the general election (both on the popular vote and the electoral college) isn`t actually that big. No, not really. There's a whole model done with primary data that has successfully predicted all elections since 1995 (all since 1912 retroactively) primarymodel.com. They predict Trump winning. Again, I'm not referring only to the primaries, I'm talking about people who have never voted before. Unregistered voters. Poor, uneducated whites who vote for Trump en masse. I don't really think there are many people who won't vote for Trump in the Republican party. The never Trump movement has repeatedly fallen flat on its face. Republican turn out was not higher by just a small margin, it was up by 62%
>Hard to make an argument here This is Sup Forums, you know it's difficult to get direct evidence of rigging. We are lucky we got Pat Caddell to spill the beans on one example he was close to. Breitbart isn't the source, Pat Caddell is and attacking the source is not an argument by the way.
William Harris
The polls are rigged because the media is heavily influenced by Shillary and her money.
John Carter
>But you can even see this in the primaries where Cruz was projected to win and Trump won. The polls aren't that accurate. Huh?
Juan Walker
>3. That gives her sympathy, it's helpful not hurtful
You are incredibly naive if you believe this.
Parker Davis
Yeah, and you obviously don't belong here with your gay-ass stars.
Austin Ramirez
Talking about States that Cruz were poised to win or lose by a small margin but did not.
Oliver Price
The media have already turned on Hillary. They make the media and polls biased tk keep the sheep calm before slaughter. you cant fight the tide
Julian Evans
Because Trump is a handicap hating bully, haven't you heard?
You're not paying attention to the narrative. If he "hits" her on health, he'll come across as mean (again) and that will create sympathy for her.
It's either neutral if he doesn't use it, and harmful if he does. There is no win for him. It's a wash.
Leo Rogers
The polls actually slightly overestimated Trump in the primaries, he unperformed, at least before he was presumptive nominee. But I think primaries are a completely different environment. Trump was running as an outlier against many different people who shared the opposing voter base. In the end it was Trump vs the establishment republican vote split 3 way between Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. Near the end anti-Trump voters starting voting for different candidates than they supported to deny a trump win in particular states. For example Rubio supporters voting Kasich in Ohio. Not sure how that affected the polls.
But if you think about it. Why would someone be shy about supporting Trump? Why would they not be shy about suggesting they are voting Clinton? The idea that a bunch of people are lying to pollsters because they are shy about Trump doesn't make much sense to me. I doubt the polls are very far off the mark here. Sites like 538 may give an 80% chance of Clinton winning, but that's a 20% chance of Trump winning, they aren't saying Clinton is going to definitely win. They are admitting a lot of uncertainty still.
Dylan Price
>But you can even see this in the primaries where Cruz was projected to win and Trump won. The polls aren't that accurate.
Indiana is the prime example of this
Henry Moore
>The media have already turned on Hillary.
What am I doing...honestly...why am I here?
Life is a 0 sum game....fuck this...
Connor Fisher
but he won
Aiden Sanchez
Every time you cucks say this you get your teeth smashed out. The polls are rigged IF THE POLLS ARE RIGGED, PERIOD.
And right now? They are. It is not debatable. It is objective fact. I am right, and you are wrong. We have evidence. Your argument is baseless, yet you continue using it. The only two explanations for this are:
1: You are so fucking retarded that you do not understand what I am saying 2: You are shilling, and do not care about the truth so long as you push your narrative.
So which is it, are you a fucking retard, or evil? You may choose whether you are stupid or evil, it doesn't matter a bit to me.
