WOW

Just ... wow

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>not 9.11%

why even try

Dude ...
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016_538_electionforecast_omniture_0803#now

Trump will win Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina... that's how we know these pre-debate polls are meaningless.

>Nate Silver
AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAH

Do you think he'll do well in the debates.

In the Primaries he was all about attacks and shouting "HIGH ENERGY" whereas Presidential debates are different, more civilised and require both candidates to give actual answers to questions. And based on Trump's track record (His AmA on reddit was a big indicator) is that Trump doesn't really answer questions.

I can't take any forecast seriously that has Trump losing any of the Romney states. I can understand the reasoning behind a prediction of Clinton winning the whole thing, but there is no way Trump loses NC and AZ.

I think Trump has the Romney states + Florida and Ohio in the bag, the rest remains to be seen. I think he will win.

Pic related.

DRUMPF IS GOING TO LOSE GA HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAAHA

I wish they would set 100-0 in favor of Hillary and Trump wins.

I can't wait. He's going to fall flat on his ass. He's going to run out there, shout Benghazi over and over, ask to see Hillary's birth certificate and claim she was born in Kenya, et cetera

Oh, and I forgot to mention Georgia. Nate (((Silver))) is beyond ridiculous.

AZ and we're blue as a mother fucker now, feels good man

Dont worry, they are gonna suicide once Drumpf loses xD

If it went red for a weak candidate like Romney who didn't energize the base, then why would Trump lose it, who does energize the base?

The only state that I could get behind in terms of going blue would be North Carolina, but even that is a stretch since even Obama only won it by 12k votes in 2008, the year he was lauded as the messiah of the free would. Even Romney won it relatively comfortably.

Because, my european friend, he energizes the other side's base by pissing them off and threatening to deport their families, and he alienates the middle by being insane.
And, his 'base' is shrinking because they're running out of old white uneducated men.

Trump energises the Far right base, which there's a lot of, which is why he won the primary.

But the centre, or centre-right, Republicans sure as hell aren't energised by him. There's a reason a lot of big Republican names refuse to endorse him, and Hillary winning in the polls in many places.

When either side (left or right) provides a far leaning candidate, the more moderate populace are more likely to vote for the other side if they also aren't too far leaning. Similar situation with Jeremy Corbyn here in the UK (despite the Jezzer and Trump being complete opposites)

AZ or GA isn't going blue fuck off niggers

>Won it comfortably

NCFag here, um no he didn't it was close just like 08 was but just swung in his direction that time instead of obama.

Trump is already down 9 in NC. He's not winning shit.

Well he's not wrong. You could argue that Donald Trump did more to unite the Democratic Party more than any Democrat could have done.

Bernie's endorsement of Hillary was literally "She's not Donald Trump"

So Donald what are your policies?
Well we have the best policies, I have spoken to a lot of experts and we have created the greatest policy, believe me. A lot of people at saying I have the best policy, and I believe them

I think Trump knows he has lost it by this stage. Why else would he be going full retard?

>tfw LITERALLY BLUE GA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA DRUMPF BTFO POL ON SUICIDE WATCH

>(((Nate "Trump only has a 2% chance of winning primary" Silver)))

Wew lad, I was almost worried.

This was his "prediction" two weeks ago. Do you think this fuck has any clue how to predict the outcome 3 months from now?

CTR is really in full force tonight

What part of "if the election happened today" do you not understand, my uneducated friend?

2 weeks after conventions is supposedly when things get real predictive. Oh, have you looked at a calendar lately?

...

>alienates the middle
who gives a fuck? kerry and romney won independents but they still lost

winning presidential elections is first and foremost about energizing your base, not appealing to the middle

it's why dubya won twice, he got all those social conservatives to go out and vote for him

trump has built a reliable coalition of old voters, veterans, ... much more reliable than young voters and independents

The Dems are way more divided than the GOP at the moment. Pic related.

>Veterans

You mean after he made fun of Mccain for being a PoW, attacked a Gold Star Family and lost support of major Veteran charities?

There are three prediction models his "now-cast" and the "polls-only" or "polls-plus". The pic I posted was a "polls-plus" prediction from two weeks ago. This guy has no idea what he's doing. The "now-cast" is his only successful model, but people confuse the issue and assume his other models are accurate as well. Any prediction model that swings so fast is irrelevant.

I was sure that people knew that pundits have no clue how to estimate Trump's success by now. They've been predicting his demise for a year now.

>muh gold star family

You guys are hypocrites.

I'm Blue da ba dee da ba daa
Da ba dee da ba daa, da ba dee da ba daa, da ba dee da ba daa
Da ba dee da ba daa, da ba dee da ba daa, da ba dee da ba daa
I'm Blue da ba dee da ba daa
Da ba dee da ba daa, da ba dee da ba daa, da ba dee da ba daa
Da ba dee da ba daa, da ba dee da ba daa, da ba dee da ba daa

You see, that's where you're wrong motherfucker.
You have to both energize and be inclusive.

Trying to appeal to uneducated white males that are dying off because of old age while alienating everyone else isn't going to win jack or squat.

Sage and report all shill threads such as these!

When did Clinton go after Mrs. Smith?

She didn't, because she's not a fucking idiot who can't keep her mouth shut.

Hillary Clinton is going to be president of the United States.

The difference is that trump directly attacked khan. Do you understand the difference?

Wtf I'm a hill dog cuk old faggot now!

No one has ever turned a deficit this big around ever before with debates. Only a tiny fraction of voters watch them, and an even smaller fraction change their opinion from it.

>The pic I posted was a "polls-plus" prediction from two weeks ago.

Why are you lying about something literally anyone can go check in like 5 seconds?

She called her a liar during the primary debates, despite video evidence to the contrary.

No. This is how it's gonna end. I know more.

> RAMOS: “OK, next question. I want to continue with the issue of trust. Secretary Clinton, on the night of the attacks in Benghazi, you sent an e-mail to your daughter Chelsea... (Audience booing) ... saying, that Al Qaida was responsible for the killing of the Americans. (Audience booing) However, some of the families claim that you lied to them. To that speed, the mother of the information officer, Chaznea (ph). Let’s listen.”

> [clip starts]
> SMITH: “Hillary and Obama and Panetta and Biden and all of — and Susan Rice, all told me it was a video, when they knew it was not the video. And they said that they would call me and let me know what the outcome was.”
> [clip ends]

> RAMOS: “Secretary Clinton, did you lie to them?”

> CLINTON: “You know, look. I feel a great deal of sympathy for the families of the four brave Americans that we lost at Benghazi. And I certainly can’t even imagine the grief that she has for losing her son, but she’s wrong. She’s absolutely wrong. I and everybody in the administration, all the people she named, the president, the vice president, Susan Rice, we were scrambling to get information that was changing, literally by the hour. And when we had information, we made it public. But then sometimes we had to go back and say we have new information that contradicts it. So I testified for 11 hours. (Applause) Anybody who watched that and listened to it knows that I answered every question that I was asked and when it was over the Republicans had to admit they didn’t learn anything. Why? Because there had already been one independent investigation. There had been seven or eight congressional investigations, mostly led by Republicans who all reached the same conclusions, that there were lessons to be learned.”

versus suggesting a grieving mother is only being quiet because her muslim husband forces her to

do you not see the difference?

What video evidence
And I think the trump comment was so publicized because it was a ridiculous ad hominem attack on a bigger stage

He has policies on his website.

She flat out called her a liar when we have video of the speech Clinton gave immediately after she talked to Smith where she was blaming the video.

> "We’ve seen the heavy assault on our post in Benghazi that took the lives of those brave men. We’ve seen rage and violence directed at American embassies over an awful Internet video that we had nothing to do with."

2 other family members at the meeting corroborated Smiths' story. I suppose they were all lying too.

Youve got this ass backwards. The repub party is old people plus white people mostly. They typically go out to vote regardless. The trick for dems is getting niggers to show up. A black vote is a democrat vote. However hillary is lame as fuck and only ultra liberal hipster in the city and welfare queens like her. The obama coalition is a nice way of saying that you got the nignogs and kids to vote. I dont see them showing up to the polls for hillary. Obama had black skin, hillary has none of that. No young people like hillary. The millenial vote will prob be 1/3 trump 1/3 hildog 1/3 third party or just not voting. Regardless hillary definately doesnt have the quantity that obama had. Even if trump pisses of the liberal crowd he manages to make them hate hillary as well. It doesnt matter what washington insiders say about trump, or if they endorse hillary. Any registered repub hates the witch.

The point is that Hillary "refuted" their claims directly, and didn't make an ad hominem attack that had nothing to do with the issue at hand.
Maybe she's lying, maybe she isn't, but that's not the issue here

Written up by his interns

>georgia to go blue

HE'S DONE BOYS. STICK A FORK IN HIM AND CALL IT A DAY.

Heres a breakdown of the parties.

>calling someone a liar isn't the issue

Yeah it is. 3 Gold Star families have the same story and this cooky bitch is saying that they're lying.

What are your policies Donald?
>Just look at my website

It's not. You're trying to move the goalposts.
Maybe if Hillary said "she's just mad because her sons dead" you might have a point
An ad hominem attack is not the same as refuting a statement.

You're arguing semantics. Trump never said she was silent because of her husband, he said "some people have suggested." In the same manner, Hillary smugly called 3 Gold Star families liars without directly saying it.

Dont forget the part when Trump claimed he has made just as much sacrifices too. That was the real stupid part

Just looking at the demographics you have to say that Trump has a very real chance of winning. The blacks will be too busy shooting each other, looting or rioting to go out and vote. The poor and uneducated whites are all going to Trump because of the wall. He just has to mention Bill Clinton doing nafta and then hildog and the tpp, and boom theyre not voting for her. If she loses those two demographics shes fucked bc they decide the swing states.

Polling is using 2012 as a turnout model. Nobody gives a shit about her. Minorities don't care enough to vote and the young, smug liberals don't like her.

>some people have suggested
kek trump has been using that line since forever whenever he wants to say something he has no evidence for

You think someone saying "she's absolutely wrong" is on par with "“If you look at his wife, she was standing there,” “She had nothing to say. She probably, maybe she wasn’t allowed to have anything to say. You tell me.”
These are direct quotes, this isn't semantics, there are legitimate differences.

'she's wrong' just means that she's wrong.

'she's lying' means she's wrong, knows she's wrong, and is intentionally telling something she knows to be a falsehood with the intent to mislead.

Now, in addition to being wrong, Smith is lying, but hillary never said it.

The difference is very subtle, certainly not enough to warrant the shitstorm it caused. The treatment of the Khans vs Smiths before this interview strongly suggested bias anyway.

>Nobody gives a shit about her

You're right, she absolutely is nothing special. But people are turning to her, and voting for her, because Trump is scaring many people to her.

A saner candidate from the GOP would have had this, Mitt Romney probably would have at least.

Yea , I think turnout will give Trump a win. This election is gonna be like 2000: A lamer, less likeable version of the incumbent vs a neat guy.

CUT MY LIFE INTO PIECES

It also may have something to do with the media copying the DNC's playbook and constantly attacking Trump.

>Not using polls-plus

>Constantly attacking Trump

It's because he's just making it so easy. Attacking Gold Star Familys? Saying Obama is the founder of ISIS? Suggesting second ammendment people "do something" about Hillary?

And then you've got his spokeswoman "Obama's policies got Khan killed, never mind the fact that he died before he was elected"

And ultimately the whole lack of giving out his tax returns, which even Fox News is giving him a hard time about.

If you take the direct quotes there is a huge difference.
Trump handled it very poorly, and Hillary did not.

You dont get it. The demographics are already skewed toward dems, it doesnt matter what percentage support her over trump. 100% of nig women voted obama. The only things that matters is if they show up. If he hammers the untrustworthy shit hard enough the nigs and kids wont vote for her. Whether or not kids, poor whites, and nigs actually show up is what decides the election. Dems appeal to a broader demographic by nature, but those demographics happen to be lazy. Its not about who trump has pissed off, the elction will be if hillary can get the obama coalition again.

>implying Trump gives a shit about Reddit

Obama definitely armed, trained, and funded ISIS predecessors. They were called "moderate rebels" when he was arming them. The intent was to "isolate the Syrian regime." We've even got leaked documents supporting this. We've known it for a while now.

I guess there would be some controversy if you believed that he literally went to Northern Iraq and signed an ISIS declaration of independence, but that would be your own stupidity.

I was at the rally where he made the 2nd Amendment comment. Watch the entire speech and you'll see the context of his comment. It makes every quite clear.

As for tax returns. Its just a CTR line of attack. We've been hearing it for a month now, yet nobody said anything about Hillary's and she just released her's a few days ago.

>ignore the polls just listen to me trust me i know better

>Attacking Gold Star Familys?

Fuck them, you can't step into the political arena and start throwing punches and expect to continue using your dead son as a shield.

Also fuck them because Hillary fucking voted for their son to get killed and they support her against Trump and his big bad meanie words.

Fuck the Khans.

Are you being Sarcastic?

>Obama definitely armed, trained, and funded ISIS predecessors. They were called "moderate rebels" when he was arming them. The intent was to "isolate the Syrian regime." We've even got leaked documents supporting this.

Does nobody remember Bin Laden being known as a freedom fighter and a US ally?

I have a bunch of newspaper clippings about it, and I clearly remember that being said in the news back in the late 90s.

The US has done this for decades now. They find a group that they want to go down, they fund and train another group that hates them, then they let them loose on each other and eventually one of the groups becomes radical and starts bombing people or flying planes into buildings. And then the US sweeps it under the rug and whistles nonchalantly about it.

>It's just a CTR line of attack

But it's not, and I don't see why he's defended on this issue. Is he obligated to release his tax returns? Of course not.

But he should, for an added level of transparency. If he's got shady stuff with his tax returns in them, like donations to NAMBLA, ties with Russia, Tax dodging or anything, the public deserve to know in order to have a better idea of who to vote for on election day for the better of the country.

And you mention Hillary's tax returns, her tax returns have been public for a very long time, with her 2015 tax returns being released recently. People don't talk about it because it's all out there. The transcripts people hound on about, we are only aware they exist because of her tax returns.

At least she released them. DT's excuses are just excuses. He doesn't want people to see that he isn't as rich as he claims, or that he's in bed with the russians, or that he's paying off a half dozen slavic mistresses.

Ya, the post-gwb middle east is a clusterfuck. Place has been since forever, I guess. Go watch the man who would be king and see who you want to arm there.

Why does CTR even pay you guys? Haven't they seen by now that it's not changing anyone's thoughts around here?

Does Donald Trump secretly have cancer?

Let's look at the evidence:

1. Covers his body in orange spray tan to hide his pale skin caused by chemo.
2. Lost a ton of weight over the past year, like most cancer patients (go look at how fat he used to be.)
3. Fake hair & eyebrows (Seriously, go look up how often his eyebrows change shape, they are glued on. And no 70 year old has long golden blonde hair, and we all know hair loss is genetic, his father started losing his hair when he was young and was nearly bald by Donald's age)
4. Refuses to release his taxes (His taxes would show how much money he has spent on medical bills)
5. Eats fast food nearly every day, known to cause cancer
6. Released an obviously fake doctor's note saying he was the most healthy person in the world, when he had no reason to do so (Trying to preemptively redirect people)
7. Along with #6, constantly talks about how "healthy" he is again for seemingly no reason
8. The only medical charities the Trump family seems to donate to are cancer charities, even though Fred Trump died of Alzheimer's, not cancer.

We need to investigate this before the MSM gets a hold of it. We need to get the facts and plan our counter attack before it's too late.

GODFUCKINGDAMN REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! THE GLORIOUS GRANITE STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL NEVER VOTE FOR FUCKING LYING HILLARY CLINTON! WE ARE ALL PROUD SUPPORTERS OF TRUMP AND BERNIE, NOT HILLARY! GARY JOHNSON IS MORE LIKELY TO WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE THAN THAT LYING BITCH WITH A SNAKE TONGUE! GO KILLYOURSELF, SPIC!

post a REAL poll next time

No, leaf. Its reality.

It's a false equivalency. Her returns are practically useless as the majority of her income is filtered through her shady ass Foundation that she refuses to release the returns of.

Yeah dude, it's a bad thing, and the only US politicians who seem to give a fuck were the Pauls and now Trump.

Whether you're right or wrong about Hillary's tax returns, what about Donald's? Why shouldn't he release his?

Yeah, we did it with Saddam in the 1980s as well. Our history of "spreading denocracy" in South America makes my stomach turn.

>No, leaf. Its reality.
You mean your are being sarcastic, but not so much?

Please, when DT loses, and loses badly, come back to /pol. I would like a vial of your tears to sip upon when I'm feeling low.

Tell me more.

He's being audited. He'll release them after the audit.

>le witty banter

Fuck off.

Everyone with a brain knew isis was going to happen. Im on mobile and cant post the link but google cheney iraq invasion 90s vid. He laid out exactly what was going to happen if they went to baghdad during the gulf war. We knew this shit since the russians in Afghanistan. Bush laid the foundation and obama finished the house. Both sides dont want him talking about this shit. We keep isis and whatever future derivatives alive because the upper crust has monetized the instabilty. So trumps statement hit the truth of the issue.

>He's being audited

So? There's nothing stopping him from releasing them even when under audit, even the IRS has said so.

>le witty banter
But I learned it from your candidate

I'm sure he could release his returns that aren't being audited?

Or release audited financial records?

Or, release the ones being audited, since he's an upstanding, honest businessman that would only follow the letter of the law, so the audit is a formality?

Or, he'll release them, soon after the election is over, on the 5th of Never.

Actually, I'm moving unless Trump actually makes some big, positive changes (he most likely won't) so

Every tax attorney in the world agrees that you shouldn't release your returns while you're under audit.

>le trump is doing something illegal but the IRS won't be able to find it in his returns

*Every tax attorney that has dealt with a presidential candidate that doesn't want to release his returns because they'll be used against him

>Every tax attorney in the world agrees that you shouldn't release your returns while you're under audit.
Why? what will happen if he releases the returns under audit? You know not realising is going to cost him the election