Using primary results to estimate the general

I would like to preface this by saying I do not shill for either side. I am simply using primary and voter registration data to estimate the results of the general election come November.

This model takes the candidate's margin of victory in the primary and weighs it against voter registration data to estimate the turnout of the party on election day. The party with the higher turnout will almost always win the state and thus the turnout estimation is used to color the states. However, because independents are not accounted for, certain states, especially the lightly colored states, may flip if the other candidate wins enough independents or attracts enough members of the other party which the model assumes are staying home. States that do not provide registration data were estimated based on the candidate's margin of victory, party turnout, and the 2012 results.

CO, WY, MT, ND, and SD did not have primaries and thus had no data to work with. They were colored based on the 2012 election with the exception of CO, which was too close to predict.

Something to note: PA returned an equal Dem and Rep turnout on election day. PA will be decided by independents based on this model.

Primary Turnout is a pointless metric to base final results on

It doesn't. It uses margin of victor in the primary to estimate turnout in the general

How the hell could "Bathroom law" NC go blue this election?

Same for Florida where even with Jeb and Marco in the primary race, Trump blew out the competition.

For Florida, when placed against his next highest competitor, Trump received 63% of the vote. Clinton likewise received 66%. Therefore Trump is estimated to get 1.9 million Republicans to show up while Clinton is estimated to get 2.1 million democrats when those results are weighted against active voters.

For North Carolina, Trump at 53%, Clinton at 57% which leads to 700 thousand republicans and 1 million democrats on election day.

Recent polling suggests Trump is winning independents in both states so the actual results will be slightly closer

Ridiculous means to base a poll on.

And Trump STILL loses.

Trump-bots are truly fucked.

Trump still looses so whats the point of this?

>Florida
>2.35 million republican primary voters
>1.7 million democrat primary voters
>blue

Your map is shit.

> the old Ted Cruz argument

People don't just magically support another candidate because the other drops out

> believing this is a poll

You're retarded

Then Hillary is really fucked because she only got 50% of the popular in a two way race when the other 50% hate her guts.

It's been done.

Primarymodel.Com

Read and weep

Wow, thanks for Correcting the Record!

Now #I'mWithHer

But when weighed against party registration, that 50% is larger than Trump's 60% in many states

This is actually loosely based on the primary model but on a state by state basis

You basically exposed how retarded your model is right here. Comparing Hillary vs Bernie to Trump vs Cruz vs Rubio vs Jeb! vs Rand, etc, is dumb as fuck.


How you spent the time doing this without seeing the flaw in it means you're a retard or a shill.

Taken into account and simplified to Trump vs next highest competitor. Just like the primarymodel.com

>le ebin 'bernouts have integrity' maymay

They're a bunch of coward cuck weaklings like their master, and they will vote for Hillary like they were told.

>How the hell could "Bathroom law" NC go blue this election?
NC recently had their voter ID laws overturned, so the dead will turn that state blue in November.

What kind of bullshit is this?

Florida is toss up, North Carolina is light red, California is dark blue, New Hampshire is light blue/toss up, New Mexico is moderate blue, Nevada is light blue, Virginia is light blue/toss up, and various other flaws.

Saged

Not according to the primary results

Primary data is fucking useless. I outright reject your methodology.

Hillary supporter btw.

Sup Forums ladies and gentlemen

I agree this is meaningless until I fit it against previous elections and see if it can predict with accuracy.

It's more a visual of which candidate has a head start in which state

I only posted it to see the Trump people freak out at
> muh primary turnout

Because most ppl dont think about dicks as much as you. The average person wasn't affected by this shit, and Trump makes it incredibly easy to dislike him.

Absolutely no way Virginia goes red this election. DESU I think its safe to say we're beginning to see the end of old dominion being a swing state.

If we're going with the primary results then Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina should all be dark red.

Very interesting model. Good work.

You're taking raw numbers, which are meaningless.

I'm taking the margin of victory and fitting it against the registered voters in each state to estimate how the candidate energized the party in that particular state and how that will translate to election day. This is exactly how primarymodel.com works. If I was using raw votes, Clinton would be winning Louisiana but we all know that won't happen

Your logic is so far from reality that a statistician would laugh in your face.

> use same logic as a published statistician
> use nearly the same formula but in smaller scale
> statisticians laugh in my face because you don't like the results

Wew lad

KEK HAS SPOKEN

11111

Your map has New Hampshire as hard red and New Mexico light red. I don't think those outcomes will pan out at all. Other than that it seems to be fairly in line with how things are expected to play out.

Trump had huge wins in those states while Hillary lost big in NH and barely got by in NM.

Hillary could still win them by winning independents and increasing her ratings within the democratic party, but the republicans are firmly behind Trump in those states.

did you take into account the voter turnout for republicans and democrats as well? how about turnout distribution between each candidate's parties?

i think your model is shit

Thank you for correcting the record!

> Trump would probably win with this model and map when independents and crossover voters are added
> Trumpfags still say it's full of shit and accuse me of being CTR

This is a fun place