>One thing we know about Donald Trump is that he doesn’t apologize. He doesn’t apologize when he is wrong. He doesn’t apologize when he is offensive. He doesn’t apologize for mistakes. As crazy as that sounds, I have blogged that it gives him a sort of superpower for negotiating. He creates an expectation that Donald Trump never budges even while he makes other people budge all the time.
>For example, on the news this morning I heard that Speaker Ryan said he would step down from managing the Republican Convention if Trump asks him to do so. I have to assume that managing a convention is a terrible job and not something Ryan wants to do anyway. Ryan is simply being smart, practical, and reasonable. But it looks to the public that Trump can influence Ryan while Ryan can’t influence Trump. That pattern is important to Trump. It sets the table for how people deal with him in the future. Specifically, it tells people they are going to lose when they try to negotiate with him. That sort of expectation hardens into reality over time and gives him a tremendous psychological advantage. Trump knows that. (Remember that he wrote the book on negotiating, literally.)
>When you are Donald Trump, apologizing is a bad strategy, even though apologizing makes perfect sense for other types of leaders. Other leaders are not emphasizing their deal-making skills. Trump is playing an entirely different game of persuasion.
>Now here’s the interesting part. Given Trump’s reputation for not apologizing, he can create an unusual amount of attention if he ever breaks pattern. A sincere Trump apology – about anything – would control the news cycle for a week. So he can save that magic bullet until needed.
This was published three months ago, Sup Forums. Adams was wrong about 'when' Trump would apologize and 'what' he would apologize about. But the central idea was spot on.
>Apologies are like catnip to the media. Journalists would make Trump repeat his sincere apology a hundred times in different interviews and debates, and they would prod Clinton to apologize as Trump suggested – which won’t happen. So the apology and the non-apology would become the dual headlines.
>I’m not suggesting that Trump apologize to anyone. That is a political calculation. I’m only viewing this hypothetical example from a persuasion perspective, so you can see how some of the persuasion methods work. In this case you see several blended techniques:
>1. Reframing (Trump reframes as an equal-opportunity offender, not a sexist.)
>2. Sincere Apology (Apologies influence people because they demonstrate empathy.)
>3. Pattern Violation (The media prefers man-bites-dog stories. Any break in pattern will control the news cycle.)
>4. Deputizing the Pundits (Omitting men from the apology creates a men-versus-women contrast in which men don’t seem to need apologies. What? This would create lots of pundit chatter in which everyone competes to say some form of “Trump is an equal opportunity offender.” That’s what Trump wants you to know. Pundits will make his case for him so long as he only apologizes to women.
>5. Redirecting Energy (Trump could move the energy – the public’s attention and interest – to the question of Clinton’s non-apology.)
>Persuasion is a lot like engineering. It has a lot of moving parts that have to fit together just right. The complexity of it is completely invisible to the untrained. Trump’s persuasion is almost always tightly engineered, right down to his Linguistic Kill Shots (his insulting nicknames).
>And when would be the perfect time for a Trump Apology Gambit? You already know the answer to that question because Trump primed you for it. Trump could do the apology during his upcoming Megyn Kelly interview.
>Bam.
Henry Reyes
Obviously Megyn Kelly wasn't involved. But it makes more sense to do this now, when momentum is absolutely critical
Wyatt Rivera
>figure out his campaign for him >he does what you predicted months ago >attribute it to his brilliance instead of your own
Easton Hall
I don't know if it was premature or not. He really needs to dodge gaffs for the next and sledgehammer hildebeast in the debates. If he can reach 45% in two ways it will be massive.
Kevin Nguyen
>(Remember that he wrote the book on negotiating, literally.)
ghostwriting != writing
Michael Morales
Dude its gonna be much higher than 45%. Especially since I still believe Assange has the actual goods that will be delivered.
Gavin Reed
UPDATE: ADAMS WRITES A NEW PIECE THIS MORNING ABOUT THE APOLOGY
>By now, most of you know that Trump expressed “regret” at saying things in the past that might have hurt people. Most viewers interpreted this as an apology, of sorts.
>Trump? Apologize?
>I have some thoughts on this, in no particular order.
>3rd Act
>This is the so-called 3rd act that I have been predicting for about a year. In movie terms, this is the point where the protagonist encounters a problem that can’t be solved unless he changes something about himself. In a typical movie script, the hero might need to conquer a specific fear, open his heart to love again, or become more open-minded – that sort of change. In our movie, Trump needed to display more human empathy to appear less scary to the public. He has been doing that in speeches and statements all week, but the “regret” speech capped it.
>In movie script terms, the timing for Trump’s 3rd act is perfect. The clock was running out on the election cycle and polls said Trump was in a hole that was only getting deeper. Clinton’s Dark Arts team – probably led by the one I call Godzilla – had framed Trump as dangerous and unstable. He was a goner. There was no way out. Game over.
>Unless…he…changed.
>So he did. You think Trump won’t be able to hold this new look. You’re probably wrong. This is the first time it mattered. Everything else was 2nd act fun.
>Regular readers know I mistakenly called the 3rd act after Trump’s interview with Megyn Kelly. In retrospect, the timing was too early for the Megyn Kelly event to be a proper 3rd act. In movies, the 2nd act typically has a number of smaller problems that are overcome along the way. The Kelly interview fits the 2nd act structure.
Jordan Lewis
cont.
Is Regret the Same as an Apology?
>In classic Trump form, his “apology” was not exactly an apology. Trump expressed regret, but in a way that left all kinds of intentional ambiguity. Who exactly was he apologizing too? Is regret the same as an apology? Does he mean it in his heart? Is the regret for himself or for others?
>I turned on CNN after the regret speech just to see heads exploding. I was not disappointed. Trump was trying to remove from his opponents their main weapon – the idea that Trump is a monster – and it frightened the anti-Trump folks in ways that that their faces and voices couldn’t conceal. I think everyone realizes that one solid month of Trump acting sane and empathetic would drive a stake through Clinton’s heart. We’re one week into it.
>The most powerful part of Trump’s strategy is that it forces his opposition from a reasonable position (Trump should apologize!) into an absurd position (Trump didn’t apologize the right way!) When the anti-Trumpers were calling for polite behavior out of Trump, they had the high ground. Now that they are criticizing the details of Trump’s “apology” they look ridiculous. It was a perfect persuasion trap. Expect more anti-Trumpers to fall into the trap all day today.
>Do you remember how the Khan situation was a perfect persuasion trap? Trump fell into that trap by making a mild comment about Mrs. Khan’s silence on stage. That allowed his opposition to brand him as disrespecting a fallen soldier. Trump created a similar persuasion trap by giving his less-than-ideal “apology” that forced his opponents into petty squawking about the sufficiency and sincerity of the apology. It makes them look small and ridiculous, and it diminishes their moral authority.
Gabriel Kelly
>he never apologizes that's why his persuasion ability is so incredible >oh but also just in case he does, that helps him too because reasons
fuck off Scott, nobody buys into your bullshit anymore
Charles Diaz
Cont.
The Bigotry Flip
>Trump is using the issue of Muslim immigration to argue that Clinton is the candidate promoting bigotry against women and the LBGTQ community. By Trump’s framing, the Democrats might help you get a gay wedding cake but Trump will prevent you from being raped and killed. Fear is the strongest persuader, so Trump effectively owns this argument now. He took the highest of the high ground. Trump is literally risking his reputation and his own life to protect women and gays. Clinton is just trying to get elected. That’s the new frame. And it is persuasive.
>Trump is also making a direct appeal for African-American votes, and that’s smart. One of the biggest rules of sales is that you have to directly ask for what you want. Asking for votes is one thing, but asking the African-American community to “try something new” because Clinton hasn’t worked out for them is perfect framing.
The Odds Now
>Prior to this week, Clinton had the momentum and a clear path to an easy victory if nothing changed. But as I blogged then, something always changes. This week Trump changed his campaign staff and softened his public persona to be less scary. If things were to stay the way they are today, Trump wins. His biggest obstacle was Clinton’s framing of him as dangerous, and now Trump is solving for that. He hasn’t done enough yet, but if he stays on the messages we saw this week, and reinforces them, he wins in November.
>Unless something changes before then.
Nicholas Jenkins
Nobody in real life cares what Dilbert thinks.
Ian Johnson
You can sense the fear instilled in the shills that their hot pocket money is coming to a halt
David Perez
far fewer shills this week than last for certain
Levi Nelson
Drumpf.
Eli Wood
Think they're dealing with some other crisis? Like Clinton's health or have they already burned through the $6 million?
Caleb Scott
> muh 6 gorillions
Sebastian James
Perhaps they realized this place is a total waste of time due in large part to the anonymous thread based structure, and also the nazi frogs running it. On somewhere like Reddit, they have significant power in simply outnumbering the opinions they need to silence, while also having admin assistance.
Elijah Thompson
Do you even know what ghostwriting is you faggot?
Jason Reyes
i used to read dilbert as a kid in the newspaper
who knew that in my thirties i'd be watching scott adams discuss politics in a hot tub at 2am on periscope
Gabriel Green
Dilbert is easily the most based cartoon in existence
Honestly the only syndicated strip that ever makes me chuckle
I also like SA's stuff on persuasion, very interesting.
Ayden Brown
A lot of his stuff hits too close to home. Sometimes I don't know whether to laugh or to cry.
