TRUMP GENERAL: The Awakening Edition

[Charles James]

Text TRUMP to 88022 for important campaign updates

EVENT SCHEDULE
donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
donaldtrump2016online.com/

RALLIES
>Trump Rally In Fort Lauderdale, FL 8/10/16
youtu.be/jRgfaKscvwc [Open] [Open]
>Trump Rally In Abingdon, VA 8/10/16
youtu.be/hyewhK-ZOo0 [Open] [Open]
>Trump Meets With Miners 8/10/16
youtu.be/21MCZiskCvw [Open] [Open]
>Trump Rally In Fayetteville, NC 8/9/16
youtu.be/HFS3_MJlPeA [Open] [Open]
>Trump In Wilmington, NC 8/9/16
youtu.be/NhPvuzqSSHE [Open] [Open]
>Pence Rally In Lancaster, PA 8/9/16
youtu.be/BdlZkt1Xlhs [Open] [Open]
>Trump Full Economic Plan Speech In Detroit, MI, 8/8/16
youtu.be/Y_aXfUet-Hg [Open] [Open]

INTERVIEWS
>Mike Pence On Hannity 8/10/16
youtu.be/fg1MxUfaR-w [Open] [Open]
>Rudy Giuliani On Hannity 8/10/16
youtu.be/bGqQY_mRU2Q [Open] [Open]
>Trump On Greta 8/10/16
youtu.be/8apyrUgVblU [Open] [Open]
>Rudy Giuliani On Fox & Friends 8/10/16
youtu.be/eRggblwYpIE [Open] [Open]
>Trump Interview With Hannity 8/9/16
youtu.be/lQahs09mhb0 [Open] [Open]
>Trump On Fox&Friends 8/9/16
youtu.be/WNiJOEi_u30 [Open] [Open]
>Trump On Mornings With Maria 8/9/16
youtu.be/gc8EWZvdNnw [Open] [Open]

JUST KIDDING!
HILLARY WILL WIN!
>RACISTS WILL LOSE
HILLARY WILL WIN!
>RACISTS WILL LOSE
HILLARY WILL WIN!
>RACISTS WILL LOSE
HILLARY WILL WIN!
>RACISTS WILL LOSE
HILLARY WILL WIN!
>RACISTS WILL LOSE

YOU WILL HEAR US ON ELECTION DAY.
WE ARE WATCHING.

SJW'S OUTNUMBER TRUMP SUPPORTERS!
SJW'S OUTNUMBER TRUMP SUPPORTERS!!
SJW'S OUTNUMBER TRUMP SUPPORTERS!!!
SJW'S OUTNUMBER TRUMP SUPPORTERS!!!!
SJW'S OUTNUMBER TRUMP SUPPORTERS!!!!!
SJW'S OUTNUMBER TRUMP SUPPORTERS!!!!!!
Have a nice life!

[Noah Nguyen]

FIRST

[John Moore]

Why do you support the orange muppet? On a scale of 1 to Palin I'd say he's a 9.

He talks about MAGA while outsourcing whenever he can.
He makes shit up whenever he can and tries to weasel himself out of it, like with the ISIS founder bullshit.
His tax plans are full on retarded and only for the rich to become even richer.
His other economic plans are retarded, unworkable and not supported by any economists who aren't complete retards with their heads up some conservative's ass.
His campaign team is fully retarded, his spokeswoman doesn't know her shit and now the campaign is headed by a Breitfart moron and the shady Manafort got BTFO.
He has changed his positions on everything to appeal to racist morons, only to turn around again after his campaign tanked going full >muh blacks only to get a retarded jab in at Hillary.
He behaves like a 5 year old when something doesn't go his way as he is used to and insulting his political opponent is his MO.
He insulted a holy American cow, a dead veteran's family and especially his mother.
He goes to Lousiana while being asked not to come to not obstruct relief efforts just to make a retarded tweet about Hillary "sleeping".
He has a literal >who? for running mate who is also ass backwards in his policies.
He looks like an orange muppet.
He has no understanding of politics, let alone international politics.

So why, all memeing aside and yes he is great material, but not more than a laughing stock outside your MAGA echo chamber, why do you root for the orange muppet?

[Liam Ramirez]

...

[Ethan Price]

I'd pay no income tax under trump, and I'm poor.

How is his tax plan for the rich?

Not worth responding to your other points, since you're just looking for (you)s

[Landon Cox]

...

[Nathan Rivera]

How much is your income and how much do you pay now?

[Daniel Wright]

Hello /trumpgen/

Reposting this as the weekend audience didn't get a chance to see.

Challenged [1] by some Hillary supporter (or Trump hater) to make a model that would allow for Trump to win battleground states solely on the white vote I decided to take it head on.

In the subsequent discussion I chose Pennsylvania because it is one of the potential battleground states that fits the criteria we were discussing:

> majority white
> light blue
> rural white population leaning red
> big urban "diverse" population, winning the state for blue on the population advantage alone

Notice that this analysis is completely in the hypothetical realm, considering th person making it has absolutely no contact with the reality on the ground right now. Think of it as a "spherical tiger in a frictionless enclosure" type of reasoning, just the cold unforgiving math.

Also take in consideration that:

> Romney couldn't flip it
> McCain couldn't flip it
> GWB couldn't flip it (twice)

Pic related is the electoral result for PA presidential election in 2012. Romney, despite of winning 55 of the 67 counties, lost that state by 287865 votes (about 5.1%) [1].

The great majority of the deficit was due to the expressive victory the Democrats secured in Philly, where in 59 voting divisions Romney failed to secure a single vote [2], and where Romney got about 20000 fewer votes than Mccain in 2008 and about 40000 fewer votes than Bush in 2004.

Now, all this information may sound like it's fucking impossible for Trump to flip that state but, specially because of the Romney poor showing among minorities, there is a path to victory for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Next post it will be discussed how it is mathematically achievable.

[1] archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/85326192/#85328546
[2] politico.com/2012-election/results/president/pennsylvania/
[3] philly.com/philly/news/politics/20121112_In_59_Philadelphia_voting_wards__Mitt_Romney_got_zero_votes.html

[Hunter Edwards]

Thats rude to ask of some one. I know migrants have trouble integrating into the culture so we can forgive you this time.

[Adrian Gonzalez]

I know this is a paid shill, but do people actually believe this?

[Jason Brooks]

Now, as mentioned in the previous post, Romney trailed 2012 by about 287865 votes or about 5% of the votes.

Here is the first (and naive) possible path for a Donald Trump victory in Pennsylvania: to flip 5% of the democratic vote in each county, assuming a turnout exactly like the 2012 one.

At first thought it seems easier said than done but pic related contains, among other things, how many votes Trump would have to flip in each county in order to pull it off.

> In 42 counties it suffices to flip less than 1000 votes
> In 20 counties, less than 5000
> In Chester, Bucks and Delaware, less than 10000
> in Montgomery, about 11000
> in Allegheny, about 17000
> in Philadelphia, about 28000

Now, that doesn't mean that Trump must win counties previosly lost by Romney, depicted in pic related is the new projected result by county. The only 3 counties that ends up flipping are: Bucks, Northampton and Luzerne.

The later is an interesting county considering that Axiom Strategies [1] considers it one its bellwether counties, representative of the whole state.

Now, what does it mean to "flip" a vote in this context? It can mean two things:

> directly flipping it: a person that previously voted for Obama voting for Trump this time
> flipping it through turnout: a person that previosly voted for Obama stays home, a person that didn't vote in the previous election

Another aspect of this reasoning is that votes are fungible: one vote flipped in a Republican stronghold (like Lancaster) is interchangeable with a vote flipped in Philly, for instance. Every extra vote flipped in a friendly county is one less vote needed to be flipped in the hard ones.

There are two factors to explore to achieve this result: to target disaffected Bernie voters for the direct flip and to increase the enthusiasm of the base to achieve the "turnout" flip.

The tactics to employ to achieve this goal will be explored in the next post.

[1] axiomstrategies.com/abc/luzerne/

[Matthew Allen]

...

[Anthony Jackson]

Now one may ask: why is it believable that Trump could flip a state not even George W Bush could in both terms? Three factors that can make it possible:

1) Obama turnout in his reelection bid brought about 300k fewer votes than in his first term, making it very unlikely that Hillary will get anywhere near the record high 3.3M votes [1 ]of Obama 2008 or even the 3M votes [2] of Obama 2012.
2) Bernie Sanders got almost 720000 votes [3] in Pennsylvania 2016 democratic primaries. Considering the revelations of favouritism (at best) or outright fraud (at worst) in the process it wouldn't be a surprise if many of them (the "Bernie or Bust" crowd) simply didn't show up to vote or even voted for Trump at the election. Even 10% of those primary votes could represent 70000 votes, more likely concentrated in the habitual bastions of the democrats (like Philly).
3) Considering that Romney failed to secure a single vote in 59 voting divisions of Philadelphia it is very unlikely that Trump can do any worse than him at the general election. Even being his weak point the minority vote already didn't show in force for Romney so it won't be more of a deciding factor this election than it was in 2012.

In conclusion: it is very difficult to flip PA but not impossible.

About that last point: it ties perfectly into the "voter fraud comments" made by Trump [4] with regards to the Philly vote. According to the LA Times article Trump told supporters at the rally that the only way he could lose Pennsylvania would be if cheating occurs "in certain sections of the state." and he is right about that.

[1] electionreturns.pa.gov/ENR_New/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=17&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0
[2] electionreturns.pa.gov/ENR_New/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=27&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0
[3] pennsylvania.state-election.info/#state_democratic_party
[4] latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-vote-fraud-20160812-snap-story.html

[Brody Reyes]

The dishonest media distorted Trump's comments [1] as if he was claiming outright voting fraud (vote changing at the poll) would occur but in reality that's not what it meant at all.

Trump implies (and it is backed by facts) that "in certain sections of the state", namely Philadelphia, vote intimidation against republican voters can pretty much influence the result of the election.

Among the ways to rig an election, "ballot stuffing" and "vote changing" are the most obvious and easy to detect of them and it is absolutely not what Trump is implying to be happenning.

It is not a coincidence that Romney failed to secure votes in some voting divisions in Philadelphia. At least one case of voter intimidation, by members of the "New Black Panther party" [2], was investigated by the DOJ and ultimately dismissed but many more are suspected (but never prosecuted).

The modus operandis is simple. With Philly being a high density "majority minority" city (55% non white) [3] and with party affiliation being very much divided by racial lines (black people, the biggest minority in Philly voting almost exclusively democratic) supressing white votes at the ballots equals supressing republican votes.

In the New Black Panther case:

> Two members of the New Black Panther party (...) stood in front of the entrance to the polling station (...)
> Shabazz carried a billy club, and is reported to have pointed it at voters while both men shouted racial slurs, including phrases such as "white devil" and "you're about to be ruled by the black man, cracker."

And that's the way to prevent republican votes in Philly. Guard the polling stations and threaten anyone with the wrong tone of skin, effectively preventing them from voting.

[1] latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-vote-fraud-20160812-snap-story.html
[2] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Black_Panther_Party_voter_intimidation_case
[3] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Philadelphia

[Dominic Clark]

...

[Colton Kelly]

You're missing a fuck ton of interviews senpai

All the interviews and rallies can be found here:

donaldtrump2016online.com/

[David Howard]

...

[Andrew Smith]

IGNORE SHILL THREADS

REAL THREAD
NUBRED

NUBRED

[Andrew Fisher]

REAL THREAD

[Aaron Murphy]

THIS IS A SHILL THREAD

GO HERE THIS IS A SHILL THREAD

GO HERE

[Noah Foster]

where is emails public record, owned by the government for posterity and FOIA requests?
oh that was hillary

[Xavier Walker]

ITS REAL!!!! IM WITH HER NOW!!!!!!

[William Bailey]

Trump is an equal part of the machine you think he's going to dismantle.

clintonfoundation.org/contributors?category=$100,001 to $250,000&page=7

[Landon Thomas]

Where is OPs picture from? Does anybody know?

[Josiah Walker]

tl;dr: Trump will win PA and the strategy is to raise his turnout while Clinton turnout will decrease compared to Obama, plus the flipped votes of the Bernie or Bust crowd.

If you guys have any question and (specially PA fags) want to know what you can do to help this to come true just ask. This is the "bellwether" state, PA flipping means a guaranteed Trump presidency.

[Mason Lopez]

>"wait until i save enough for this AR , ima kill trump ahh if he come to Orlando"

twitter.com/Nike_Boi8/status/766825417642799104
tweetsave.com/nike_boi8
Atlanta , GA Orlando , Fl
Florida Hurricanes Basketball Team
6'1"

[Levi Turner]

equal part?

donor number 400+

try again

[Blake Adams]

>Text FUCK YOU to 88022 for instant gratification

Each text costs you $0.99 but it's worth it.

[Jace Morgan]

Thank you Portubro.

[Samuel Ramirez]

***shill thread***
highlighted his posts from last thread

saw he is shill

real thread

[Josiah Carter]

Trump admits he was part of the system.

[Angel Brooks]

>***shill thread***
>highlighted his posts from last thread
>saw he is shill
>real thread
> →
> →

abandon ship!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nicholas Taylor]

Is this real?

[Justin Sanders]

>>***shill thread***
>>highlighted his posts from last thread
>>saw he is shill
>>real thread
>> → →
>> → →
>abandon ship!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ryan Jackson]

have you yelled awoo at any cucks today, pol?

[Andrew Reyes]

> (You)
>>>***shill thread***
>>>highlighted his posts from last thread
>>>saw he is shill
>>>real thread
>>> → → →
>>> → → →
>>abandon ship!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Landon Harris]

(((Bolsheviks))) in California to Criminalize Taking Undercover Videos

investmentwatchblog.com/california-to-criminalize-taking-undercover-videos/

[Dominic Young]

Not sure who is the shill anymore

[Ethan Brooks]

>How is his tax plan for the rich?

taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/making-americas-debt-great-again

They'll pay way less, they could potentially form LLCs to "sell" their "services" to the companies employing them, settling them at 15% rates.

[Logan Brown]

dunno but it is true

[Eli Baker]

why the fuck isnt she treating any of that? shes just trying to hide it. what is wrong with her?