What are the risk of the world facing another financial crisis again? The 2008 one seemed like it came out of nowhere

What are the risk of the world facing another financial crisis again? The 2008 one seemed like it came out of nowhere.

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After the election, 100% guaranteed.

Yellen can't afford a market crash while Obama is in office, otherwise it assures a Trump victory.

I reckon they'll (((crash it))) if Trump is elected guaranteed - The question is if Hillary is elected can this long bull run which we've been having (2nd longest in all of history if I recall correctly) seriously continue for another 4 years?

Here in Australia our exports to China are slowing down due to lack of growth over there and people are leveraged up to their teeth in overpriced property - very similar situation to Canada it seems.

Italian banks looking shaky af threatening to pull down DB, will we witness the greatest happening of our time anons?

What is the best way to profit? There are a few BEAR securities which go up if the market tanks I've found, thoughts?

Leveraged inverse ETFs (Bear ETFs) have massive expense ratios, lose value fast (even if the market is flat), and are in general idiotic to invest in long term, unless you know 100%-for-sure that the market will crash within 2 weeks.

Long term SPY put options way-out-of-the-money are a much safer investment. You can get Jan 2017 $160.00 SPY puts for approx. $0.58 / share. If market crashes in next 6 months, those puts will sky rocket in price. If market holds or goes up, you only lose 0.58 cents a share (really not that bad compared to leveraged ETFs).

Can you elaborate user? I've heard of them before but they seem to require quite a large amount of $$ in a margin account which as a broke student I don't possess

>as a broke student I don't possess

Then you shouldn't be concerning yourself with stocks and securities to begin with.

If you really want to profit with such little money, then just hold cash and don't spend like your usually retarded college kid. Cash goes up in value when markets collapse (i.e. deflation), because people need cash to pay off debts and survive a shit economy in general.

Margin is only required if you are writing options. If you are buying them your broker should just settle them in cash.

It only seemed that way because everybody was manic with speculative bubbles, rehypothecation and securitization.

youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw

It was obvious to those where looking how the financial system works. People saying "but but but... housing prices can NEVER go down!"

>Yellen can't afford a market crash

Every month since December, every economist has been saying there will be an interest rate increase.

I doubt it will happen when Obama is in office.

Negative interest rates in some places. Like all through modern history, when the powers that be decide to collect the real wealth they simply raise the rates and move in on the defaults. Shiat, our economy is basically housing right now just like the US before it took a giant shit.

I don't even know what the point of it all is, the top few percentiles own most of the wealth already, ridiculous this usury thing, when money makes money it's obvious what happens over time. Concentration.

It's a 100% certainty. It's a question of when, not if. This current system is completely unsustainable and we're in for a ton of suffering and bloodshed in the coming years.

very good, obama's incompetence only delayed things

people have been screaming bubble/collapse/meltdown for 2+ years now.

soros has been entirely in cash and commodities the last 2 quarters and lost a fuck ton

still a bull market bros. Ive made a killing in equities since brexit alone

why bother, he'll already be in.... and the real blame will be easily laid at obama's and others feet

>seemed like it came out of nowhere.
You should watch Boom Bust (not the best, but good for laymen). This shit has been happening for centuries, and will absolutely happen again, just probably for something else.

>[YouTube] Peter Schiff was Right

peter schiff was right for the wrong reasons. don't link anything related to this retard.

youtube.com/watch?v=egBubTi4sY4&index=11&

educate yourself kids

We need gold backing cash..., only way

Find friends upset bernie didnt get nominated and shill them to get back at DNC for not nominating by viting trump, I have convinced 3 people already, Show them this music too

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King nigger didn't delay very much. The Fed did most of the heavy lifting when it came to kicking the can.

>an interest rate increase.

hahahahahahhf;lkasjoti;gjaeo'

>We need gold backing cash..., only way
That wouldn't help anymore. We need labour backing currency. That's the only thing of actual value.

fischer at the jackson hole conference today pretty much announced it will be this fall.

yellen has raised rates once now, second time this fall.

Everyone in finance thinks we're currently in a bubble and it's going to pop. Likely won't be as bad as 2008, but there will definitely be a bit of a correction.

cute fallacy leaf
> people incorrectly calling it for 2 years means it will never happen
yeah right....

American markets, at least, are in a huge bubble and everyone knows it.

The problem is interest rates have been rock bottom for too long. As interest based investments pay out, there is no sense in rolling them into a new interest based investment -- the rates are too low! So it all goes into the stock market.

Stocks are now hugely pumped up by this investment money that simply had nowhere else to go.

The Fed needs to raise interest rates but they know it's a doomsday scenario waiting to happen. If they set their interest rates to 5% tomorrow, shit would hit the fan instantly. That's why their first increase was a nearly unprecedented 0.25% increase.

Normally they change interest rates by +/- 1% at a time, so 0.25% shows they know what's up. 1% was too much of a risk. They need to up it more but they have to try and easy into it as slow as possible, maybe give a chance for money to slowly leak out of the stock market instead of blamo.

Also, with Europe in a world of shit, nobody wants to invest in Euro bonds. American bonds pay such low interest that, again, it's pushing that much more money into stocks rather than recycling into bonds.

It's a mess. I don't really envy the next president because they're probably going to oversee a stock market crash and there's really nothing they can do about it.

the same people who think fiscal stimulus (keynesian economics) is useless and has no effect on the real economy, think that obama propped up the economy by spending tons of money.

you can't simultaneously hold those two beliefs.

presidents have little effect on the business cycle.

Bush was unlucky to get two recessions (2002/2007), obama was very luck to get 0.

> muh dual mandate

The banks are currently exposed to $4 quadrillion in derivatives. We couldn't get the US above 0.25% interest rates after 8 years. Europe and Japan are so bad they're going into negative interest rates. There are bubbles _everywhere_ because of the last 8 years of 0% interest. This world is set to burn.

There will be a september hike

It certainly will happen eventually.

The business cycle is inherently random though. It's by nature impossible to predict both the timing of recessions and their severity.

The fact that historically we average a recession every 5-6 years, and stock market corrections even more often, means some random idiots yelling every year about a crash will be right quite occasionally.

Its the expression 'economists have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions'

corporate profits are up over 160% under obama.

Are stocks really that inflated?

Don't get me wrong, I hate the Fed, but it will allow markets to remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

>user knows what he's talking about

>the same people who think fiscal stimulus (keynesian economics) is useless and has no effect on the real economy, think that obama propped up the economy by spending tons of money.
>you can't simultaneously hold those two beliefs.

It doesn't. The only thing that "recovered" were stocks and housing prices, both of which are severely inflated past their fair market value. And both of these only help the rich stay rich. Middle class and poor america are still hurting a shit ton, because they do not own the majority of stocks, and wages have remained stagnate, including a vast number of people having to rent instead of own housing now, eating up whatever wealth is left.

Keynesian economics only enriches the top of the food chain.

>>Keynesian economics only enriches the top of the food chain.

i think you're confused. fiscal stimulus is not fiscal stimulus if all of the stimulus accumulates in the reserves of the central banking system.

there is a very clear disconnect between what a fiscal stimulus is supposed to accomplish, and what you think it is supposed to accomplish. there is nothing "keynesian" about filling the coffers of the central banking system.

the stimulus has to trickle down, and it has not.

"It'll totally happen this month!" - Every pundit every month every year for the last 8 years.

Name one thing Obama did to increase corporate profits.

No, seriously, I'm curious. Even counting acts of Congress, was there a tax reduction? A change in trade status? Why do you think corporate profits are actually up?

Off the top of my head, the only reason I can think of is that with interest rates being so low, people who aren't playing stocks are simply spending their cash. There's no point in putting it into savings, CDs or bonds so if you don't put it into stocks then you're spending it.

And of course, it's also possible that higher stocks are giving companies more cash flow to invest with. They can sell a little bit of the company and get a ton of cash to build out the company some more with.

None of which has anything to do with Obama.

it's already "happening". australia has only managed to offset a debt crisis by greatly increasing public and private debt since 2008.

how long do you think this is sustainable?

It will happen before elections.

That is the trend.

That, and counting recurring expenses as one-off expenses in the accounting. GAAP is a thing of the past, my boy! Welcome to Mark-To-Unicorn accounting!

Obama signed Dodd-Frank, creating a climate of acquisition for big business in the banking & property-related sectors.

Obama signed PPACA, creating a climate of acquisition for the big players who do insurance, private practice, hospitals, and pharma.

>doesn't understand stock market at all

They actually do buybacks of their own shares, putting the company further into debt but diminishing the float, making p/e more attractive

>out of nowhere
Nah if you talked to contractors during 2006-2007, there was a major slowdown in housing construction that signaled problems in the near future. Why would housing construction slow down during a major price boom? Obviously something was fishy.

Same thing with the stock market, it was clearly peaking.

How to make money in the next decade:

>spend less than you earn
>save cash now, as much as you can
>wait for crash
>watch for blue-chip dividend paying stocks that get dragged down with the rest of the economy
>buy in
>wait
>profit

There was a guy who bought citibank at the bottom and did nothing else, made insane gains. Lots of solid companies will see stock price falling during a market collapse because people sell just to generate cash to pay off bad debts or deleverage. Don't bother trying to short unless you control 60%+ of the market.

>The banks are currently exposed to $4 quadrillion in derivatives.

They aren't. Think of derivatives as bets and the banks as bookmakers; in a horse race, for example, the amount of money (risk) the bookmaker takes on when people bet on the favourite is offset by the amount of money he takes in on bets which eventually lose - 'balancing the book'. It';s impossible for eveyr bet to be a winner and so just adding up the amount of money taken in and calling it the 'exposure' is wrong.

This. early everyone on here is young enough to make money should the stock market tank.

Get the Hollywood idea out of your heads that you need to be actively micro-managing your investments and gambling constantly and treat it just like a bill you have to pay every month. Put some money away from every paycheck and FORGET IT EXISTS FOR 25 YEARS.

I wouldn't micromanage, but I would set targets for yourself and re-examine your portfolio yearly, unless you're just going to get an ETF (I wouldn't).

For instance: you don't get the capital gains tax rate unless you hold your investment for at least 1 year. So don't buy anything you're not comfortable holding for at least that long, and don't sell anything before that time unless you have a DAMN good reason and are willing to take the tax hit.

Warren Buffet got rich making only a handful of deals that paid off big. He didn't focus so much on when to sell, as when and what to buy. If you buy solid companies and let them do their thing, they'll make you rich on their own.

For example, my latest stock purchase was VRX at about $26/share several months ago. I'm waiting until at least 1 year from them before I do anything with it, but the stock price has been up and down since then. VRX got slammed harder than necessary for their price gouging, and the government is unlikely to ban it since it would affect so many other companies and their lobbyists. I expect it to recover to at least $52/share in the next few years, and possibly much more if they have a slam dunk quarter (even now they're making good revenue and profiting, which is much better than most tech stocks).

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