Trump up 14 points in NH

Holy shit, I knew Trump had a good week, but from 1 below Clinton to 14 ahead of her is just insane.

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Holy fuck

Nice.

Impressive, but four electoral votes isn't shit if he can't win Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina.

What the fuck? Source?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/?234

>133 sample size
>one poll

He's up on Florida. NC and Georgia are tied, Ohio is within reach. Only Virginia is out of the question.

He's also up in Nevada

>sample of 133

As an outsider, what the fuck does that mean? Why is it impressive?

It's an odd fuckup for a pollster as big as Reuters/Ipsos and especially one that openly supports Clinton, one wonders what is going on behind the scenes.

>fuck! They're not buying that Shillary is up by 40!
>Quick release some crazy pro-Trump polls so they don't think we're biased!
>damnit now they just think we suck at polling!

If Trump wins NH then he would also win FL, OH, IA, NV, and he already has NC just barely.

>posting on Sup Forums
>understanding basic statistics and not getting butthurt cuz it doesn't say what you want
Pick one

>makes it weigh only 0.25 despite having an A- grade
>makes another poll that has a B grade weigh 0.96 despite having a flat B
>its not due to sample because the sample with 1,166 is 0.58 and a sample with 469 is 0.59 while a sample with 578 at the same grade is 0.25, aka the weighting is completely random

thanks nate

it means that Trump has a great chance to win the state because its by such a large margin with such a respected poller, even though its small sample size as says.

>the Republican leaning poll is clearly biased!

...

Just an outlier. Nothing to see here.

Georgia always votes Republican. He will most definitely win it.

>133 LV

Why even have the poll? This is just as big a meme as having Clinton up 14

w-what
did they fix it the wrong way accidentally?

even if he wins every single one of these (which he won't) he still only ties

I hope Trump wins and makes America great again good luck guys.

thanks for the positive vibes

Hate to tell you this guys, but when November comes along you're not going to have 20 different trial runs from which you can choose the most favorable outcome.

>GA
>Democrat

Everything else is actually somewhat spot on. Now lets pray he doesnt fuck it up and give the media an excuse to pound his ass into the ground again.

Hate to tell you this but clinton isn't impervious, she CAN be brought down.

Dem supporters clearly don't get how pissed off some people are. They just can't understand, and that's going to be their downfall.

+14 seems way to fast of a turn around. I'd wait for a few more polls that show Donald rising nationally before I accept this as fact.

>which he won't
its a couple months before the election you cannot say

>ties
then it goes to Trump or maybe a random repub

>people complain about 133 person sample size in New Hampshire
>implying that's not literally 92% of their population

600,000 people voted in 2012

Statistics is a fucking pseudoscience