Hey Sup Forums, why is Trump losing?

Hey Sup Forums, why is Trump losing?
Do you think the situation will change before the election?

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election.princeton.edu
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washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/08/right-now-donald-trumps-demographic-path-is-far-worse-than-mitt-romneys/
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>two days ago

>BOTH of them in decline

the fuck?

newest results

>>two days ago
more like the 33 days before....

That's yesterday.

The polls are tightening each and every day

And that's even without yesterday's awesome Trump speech in Mexico

Face it, you're doomed

*Sips moccachino*
Enter

...

Johnson is splitting the vote.

>The polls are tightening each and every day
So you think is going to win more than 10 points before the election?

...

Jeb?

Yes

If the following things happen:

- Clinton has a seizure on stage
- Major terrorist attack in the USA
- There is a massive economic meltdown.

Then Trump has a chance to win, otherwise he is pretty much done.

"The poor will always be with us...."

t. Jesus

Internal pollings have Trump winning shit like Oregon and Michigan. Could happen if Jill (((STEIN))) gains more traction.

Oh god, I'm very nervous about this election. If hillary wins, 4+ years of shittier internet, video games, and society.

Also even CNN had to admit that Trump had already gained an unprecedented 6 points...

"Sell everything that you have, and give to the poor."
-t. Jesus

This. Also cartel decapitations in Texas might help..

Working class white voters from Rust Belt states are not that interested in an anti-immigration message and he didn't hone the message to be more about jobs. he is pivoting to make the immigration message about security but he needs to focus of JOBS JOBS JOBS.

A skilled tradesman in Ohio who has little work because of the housing bubble isn't losing his job to a mexican. he is not getting as much work because of the housing bubble. If he works with mexicans at all it is supervising a crew of mexicans.

Ohio-Pennsylvania-Indiana-Iowa-Florida

All states with JOBS problems who don't have illegal immigration problems. To win he has to take at least Ohio-Iowa-Indiana-Florida. Right now he has Indiana. He is way behind in Iowa- they never bought into trump. He is way up in Indiana- they love trump and his VP from Indiana. He is so far behind in PA he should probably focus elsewhere.

He is losing or slightly behind in Ohio and losing or slightly behind in Florida.

OH and FL also have very old populations. He has done nothing to appeal to the older voter other than a general Return to Greatness.

He doesn't go out and say their Social Security is safe. That is key to winning old-people states.

I think there is a lot of truth that his campaign has been hurt by not hiring the standard Campaign people who know how to get those extra 5% that is the difference between winning and losing.

If the election happens tomorrow, he loses respectably but it isn't close.

>- Clinton has a seizure on stage
>- Major terrorist attack in the USA
>- There is a massive economic meltdown.


This will not happen

>should happen if Jill (((STEIN))) gains more traction.

This.

So maybe now the Trump supporter should start to push Jill Stein?

>CNN had to admit that Trump had already gained an unprecedented 6 points
When?

>When
Last night/today. Right after mexispeech

>Last night/today. Right after mexispeech
Any poll, sauce, link?

>This will not happen

All of that can happen, and it's the best chance Trump has to turn moderates who scare easily.

Friendly reminder that the popular vote doesn't mean shit and Trump is losing in nearly every swing state.

Hillary only has to win 1 of these and she's madam president.

>Friendly reminder that the popular vote doesn't mean shit
Maybe the US constitution should be changed?

Sorry bro I dont have it but if you can find a 30 minute segment of CNN after the speech that it's where it should be at.

They were also discussing how clintons favorability ratings are dropping.

It's a neck a neck race

agreed. If you look at these meta analysis of polls election.princeton.edu it is obvious why he is losing. He is offending everyone that isn't a white, uneducated male in states with diverse populations. He also has a less percentage of the white vote compared to Mitt Romney when he ran in 2012.

What the fuck

Like literally yesterday there was a poll thread where Trump was first

STOP FUCKING CONFUSING THE FUCK OUT OF ME, IS HE WINNING OR NOT????????? REEEEEEEEEE

I don't think that speech is going to bump him.
Its literally the same shit everyone already knows about him.

The only reason you retards are creaming your dicks over it is because you thought he was getting softer.

>He also has a less percentage of the white vote compared to Mitt Romney when he ran in 2012.
any source for that?
If true that would be really very surprising!

www.realclearpolitics.com

Find out yourself
(Protip, there aren't any polls since his speech yet)

>Like literally yesterday there was a poll thread where Trump was first
Any link?

Why doesn't RCP use the LA Times polls when Trump is winning?

Non Americans seriously overestimate our meme parties. People STILL blame Bush on Nader. The rare times that a third party gains traction they're a startup, not dinosaurs like the Greens.

No we are creating because he acted presidential and both Mexico and the US all had their eyes glued to him.

Public perception is a powerful thing and this has been nothing but positive

It is.

"Here comes the bu~tt train~!"
t. Jesus

Fuck man, I have to go through my history, can you wait 10-15 mins while i find it?

>(Protip, there aren't any polls since his speech yet)

good to know

Ok but for now Clinton is going to win.
So pushing the green could be a good strategy for Trump supporters.

That's ridiculous

Oooo
Thanks, man, hadn't seen that

Tbh the LA Times is the one that seems to represent this race the best
Like 4% of people who sway and the rest has made up their mind

I really doubt there's a 6-10 point lead at all times and then it goes down to 3 in the next poll (way beyond the margin of error) and repeat ad nauseum

>the only poll in the country that shows Trump winning seems legit.

Holy shit I can't wait for the election to be over. Trump has turned you guys into a bunch of delusional, Reddit tier Bern victim types. It's sad to watch.

Trump is losing. Accept it.

Btw i like how you're being objective without sounding condescending. Makes for a way better discussion and less cussing

L.A Time probably needs money. They want new readers, so they're hunting the most naive part of the Trump supporters with ridiculous poll....

The polls said the same thing about brexit. So stop freaking out. Trump will win the election, but lose in the polls.

These exact arguments were thrown around daily during brexit

We can only know for certain once we knoe the end result. In the mean time everyone should vote for who they want.

Bern victims were definitely delusional but the primaries work differently (make enough points to reach finish line, making it clear it's impossible to win at a certain point/day) than the general election (all votes at once in one deciding day)

This is the poll I was talking about
I don't know how legit it is, but this entire election is giving me a mindfuck

cesrusc.org/election/

I don't care a out CTR since you people are mostly inoffensive, but I didn't say that
You twisted my words

Even if Trump is losing on the LA Times or is tied, it's an accurate representation
Do you sincerely believe that up to 10% of registered voters change their opinion every 2 days?

...

washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/08/right-now-donald-trumps-demographic-path-is-far-worse-than-mitt-romneys/

That long hyperlink gives detailed graphs comapring donald trump vs mitt romney as well as good analysis from a very trusted media outlet.

You were reading a shill thread

>The polls said the same thing about brexit
No they didn't.
The polls were extremely tight for the Brexit.


That's LA Time poll... They're not legit...

>Working class white voters from Rust Belt states are not that interested in an anti-immigration message
Is this what CTR are telling themselves?

>B-b-b-but muh Brexit polls!

One poll on another continent about something completely different is in no way, shape, or form related to this election.

1 vote ending differently than the polls predicted in Europe does not discredit every single presidential election poll in the United States. Stop being so delusionaly pathetic.

Trumpcucks like to post the LA Times poll, the single poll that is in Trump's favor. In reality he's getting slaughtered.

>paper in the biggest county in the US, which is heavily democratic, needs the Trump crowd

>The polls were extremely tight for the Brexit
An 8 point swing on the day is tight?

but (((Reuters))) has them tied using their (((revised))) polling methods

Yep ok, I get that.

Ok so even if the white males vote less for Trump than for Romney, Trump is cucked.

Well, I'd like to see the turnover of LA Time since they publish those fake polls.

...

People are feeling the need for Johnson.

A poll on a binary choice that did not depend on constituencies is FAR easier to get the right result on. The final poll the day before, the biggest that had been taken thus far, got the wrong result by FOURTEEN points. Brit/pol/ was on suicide watch for the entire last week.

Yeah, this is what mindboggles me
I thought Reuters changed it?

He was first in one state in one poll

>inb4 Sup Forums thinks it's rigged because all polls aren't exactly the same

they altered their methods twice within a month

>thinks WaPo is credible

This

Yep that's a much tighter result than the one between Trump and Hillary cause it's based on 100%: remain or exit. The 10 points between Hillary and Trump take in account the other candidates....

Hey, Trump is losing in all the polls less the LA one...

If Clinton has a seizure you bet your ass the media is going to spin it as a "good thing". You know, "first disabled president" and that kind of bullshit. She'll get a disabled card and sympathy votes.

>giving Hillary NH and Maine but Trump not AZ, GA and MO
Bad troll.

>Trump Voters vs

>White beta males
>White females
>All other demographics

It's simple demographics.

He offends white women, which means he offends beta males by default, and also be default becomes the target of their liberal media, which is also being funded by globalists.

That means he loses the low information Black and Asian vote.

It goes without saying he loses the huge Hispanic demographic too, because...Well, they're Hispanic.

There are also cucks who fear change and want to stick to the same system they've been on for 40 odd years. Better the devil you know.

This isn't ONE vote though.

Clinton only has to win one of NINE close states. ALL NINE of these states polls are not going to suddenly shift. Even if 8 of them do she still wins.

Here I'll post a map giving Trump 4 of them that's he's losing but SHOULD win. He's still fucked.

((( REAL CLEAR POLITICS )))

((( Real ))) ((( Clear ))) just for you. You're welcome Goyim.

His biggest thrust early on was "MUH JOBS".

He never should have dropped it.

It's all people want to hear - Security comes after prosperity to most people.

They don't care about terrorists if they can't even put food on the table.

There isn't, check the rcp poll.

you can rig the polls only so many times

slow but steady Jeb! is gaining ground

>bias polls
>"in reality"

thanks for correcting the record duderino, let's see polls that don't oversample dems by 15% first

>(d)+4.6

Trump has GA, AZ and MO in the bag m8, you only gave him one swing state, namely NC (which went red for Romney despite being Obama being his opponent). This election really only has 5 swing states, although I do admit that Hillary has the better chances.

>trump-losing.jpg
thanks for correcting the record wew lad

praise be to kek trumpo-chan will win :D

>thanks for correcting the record wew lad
Well Trump is losing, and that was the point.

he really isn't, the biased polls have already been debunked. Prepare your asshole for brexit 2.0 ahmed

>Prepare your asshole for brexit 2.0

So that's your point? All the polls are wrong and Trump is going to win?

Fuck you med pack.

I'm going to have to take a break from Sup Forums after the election because half the Internet is going to be here laughing there ass off at you guys. It's going to be Sup Forums harbor 2.0.

they need both

...

when there is a bias

media, government and banks wanted the uk to vote remain and thus portrayed it as the winning side to win over the weak minded people who conform to the popular idea

Tbh anyone saying they know who is going to win the election, be it Sup Forums or polling comlanies is absolutely lying. Every polling company is essentially making as much money as they can before the entire racket collapses.

Voters are no longer homogenous blocs, its impossible to predict how people will vote. This was proven in Brexit and the UK elections. Polling companies are absolute fraudsters, they're just being paid by the media to provide fuel for a thousand thinkpieces a day which are churned out by these crooks.

>lel Hillary ahead by 11, how will Trump recover?
>uh oh, Trump is ahead of Hillary, looks likw the 4th Reich is established
>click here to see 100 ways Hillary will lose the election based on ultra-accurate polling

It's a flip of a coin, always has been.

>it's a flip of the coin, always been

That just doesn't make any sense.

>- Clinton has a seizure on stage

Practically guaranteed

>- There is a massive economic meltdown.

Currently ongoing

>bias polls
biased, not bias, you fucking numbskull.

Are*

>Voters are no longer homogenous blocs, its impossible to predict how people will vote. This was proven in Brexit and the UK elections.

Do you know anything at all about how polling works? They weight responses for exactly this reason. They don't just call a thousand people and tally up the responses, it's much more complicated than that.

With Brexit the polls were within the margin of error, it was only the idiots in the media who were saying "WHEW LOOKS LIKE WE WON" before anyone had even voted. Any pollster will tell you it's a very fallible science.

Nobody's saying it's impossible for Trump to win, it would just be historically unprecedented to come out of a hole that deep this late.

so you are saying the 153 people that showed up to clinton's last rally are actually going to vote for her? that's great! she must be doing very well in the polls!!!!

i'm not him, but the polls are clearly being manipulated. she is unlikable and very very incompetent.

>still including Quinnipiac
>still including any old polls
This is why the average ends up being the most misleading

ok so you say she is winning now? what is she going to do about the debates vs trump? i doubt will make it, how are the dems going to explain that?

There was a 10 joint gap between Leave and remain the day before the poll.

But don't let that ruin the little narrative you've made where somehow 10 points is significant but 8 is not.

I can't wait for the elections. It's going to be hilarious to see Trump winning in a landslide even though the "polls"(pure fabrication) say otherwise.

The mainstream media is shooting it's foot by reporting obvious BS.

Nobody will ever take polls serious anymore. Specially if we remember Brexit fiasco too.

Polls are inherently misleading. If I quiz 1000 California college students about who they're voting it's going to look like Hillary or Bernie has the race in the fucking bag. These polls always poll extremely small numbers in extremely small areas and then spout it as if it's fact. Some of these polls are only working on 100-300 people. Some of them even explicitly state they're asking 500 dems, 300 repubs, 100 independents etc.

Just google "Trump Poll" and you'll see a news article stating that Trump has 0% favorability with blacks and that absolutely no black guy will vote for him. This is obviously incorrect since there are plenty of black Trump supporters. Which means they probably went to the ghetto and asked a bunch of hood rats who they're voting for even though liberals in general vote less often than republicans, not even counting the fact that minorities especially blacks vote democrat way more often.

>He never should have dropped it.

Except he never did, it got at least 10 minutes of coverage last night