Nightly update #1 (9/2/16):
Hello, I correctly predicted the outcome of the 2012 Presidential race. Here is my current projection based on 3 criteria:
#1) Latest Polls (weighted by accuracy)
#2) State-by-state demographic info
#3) Historical precedent
Thoughts?
These are all of the battleground contests as well (to be decided by less than 3% of the vote).
I have a few qualms.
Trump isn't getting that Maine 1 EC
Also NC, and Iowa will go blue.
Otherwise this looks correct.
cap this
Nope, this will happen.
Iowa will probably go red, I have it as a strong lean. NC is definitely a close one though.
Iowa and NC are trending red NOW, if Hillary doesn't have it at the height of shilling and media slander it's fucking gone.
Also yeah he's getting that Maine EC, hell he might get the whole state if the Reuters/Ipsos polling is anything to go by, he's been up there in all of their recent polls.
Mostly agree. MN should be darker, VA should be lighter, MO should be lighter, and that Nebraska CD should be light red.
Yeah, I forgot to change Nebraska #2 to a light red.
Minnesota is definitely the strongest lean out of the 3 upper Midwest states.
You think so? From the polling I've seen, WI has had the largest swing to Trump, and MI seems to be slightly more pro-Trump than MN, though I doubt he will win either one
Minnesota has the strongest historical precedent. They haven't voted for a Republican since 1964 (largely because Mondale was from Minnesota, but still). Minnesota does have a lot of hardcore Bernie supporters, but it's going to take a lot more to flip it red.
Trump's best chances are in Wisconsin and Michigan.
My thought is that you should fuck off, shill
You forgot to sage buddy.
If he wins, I'm thinking he has to win at least one of these unshaded states. I don't know which would be easiest as he's losing them all by a decent margin at this point
I'd really recommend he focus his time in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Those are his demographics, and those give him the best odds. If he flips PA or Michigan, Clinton is in serious trouble.
Agreed. He really shouldn't have a problem winning the red states in the map above. Winning the popular vote along should grant him Ohio, he's already winning Iowa and is statistically tied in Nevada, and Florida may need a slight bit of effort to win. That should give him enough resources to win one of the states he truly needs
To expound on that:
Virginia always votes establishment (a.k.a. Clinton and Kaine).
Colorado has a solid latino vote base.
New Hampshire might be OK to spend resources in, but relying on Nevada, Iowa, and Maine #2 to go red is really selling yourself short.
He flips PA or Michigan, he likely wins and makes up for losing Nevada or Iowa.
No doubt, he needs Florida to win. Ohio is his breadbasket, so he shouldn't have a problem there. He needs Florida 100%, though.
>Winning the popular vote along should grant him Ohio
Should be *winning the popular vote alone
I only see him winning this thing by changing national opinion by a good bit. Not focusing on specific states.
Always with the overoptimism in Nevada.
Yeah, this strategy only works if Trump composes himself in the debates.
Michigan or Pennsylvania? Oh plase, shut your fucking mouths up, Drumpf can't even get Arizona and Maine fully behind him, much less places where some decency is found.
also I know this is out of the blue, but didnt Julian assange promise an october suprise for hillary. could be one of the x factors in this race
If you are not going to actually contribute to this thread why are you here? oh wait thats right ctr puts the bread on your table
According to polling, it's a dead heat in NV
I'd be jaw-on-the-floor shocked if Trump loses Arizona. Also, you act like Maine is a traditionally red state. Trump getting anything out of Maine would be, at the very least, a groundbreaking shift.
No, because unlike you, my penis' length is not a negative value, so I have no reason to support a clown whose own party is beginning to reject him like some stomach sickness
ill believe it when i see it
Maine has voted in some of the most conservative governors in modern U.S. history. LePage is like a mini-Trump.
Same in Wisconsin and Florida, they voted people whom are constantly compared to Trump.
To add cream to the top of the cake, Trump's running mate isn't even well-liked in his state (Indiana), a possible swing state
>Indiana
>possible swing state
wew lad; not this election
Didn't ask.
Virginia is more of a swing state this election than Indiana.
>what is mid year turnout
maine hasnt voted red since 1988
just stop embarrassing yourself
screencap this
...
You literally just took the map from 538 u nigger this isnt an oc.
Daily reminder there are more light blue states than light red.
...
I know you're just memeing, but please stop giving people funny ideas like 'Trump can win Illinois or Delaware'
Oh yeah, you caught me. Totally the same thing.
quote me
...
In a three-way race...
I'll be driving in from SF to help make the difference in NV. Finally my fucking vote will count.
lmao this country's political system is so fucked up.
People who have recently moved from California have not changed the California area codes on their cell phones.
lol top kek this cracked me up more than expected
>Hawaii
>blue
Trash.
Talking polls numbers before debates is stupid. Let's talk popular vote scenarios. This is my map for Trump +4.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
>polls-plus forecast
Damn OP, are you Nate Silver?
