I'm fairly certain that pic related is how this election will turn out. I think Trump will ultimately win, but if he does not win, Clinton wins in the closest election in recent memory.
If Trump wins the popular vote, he will automatically win Ohio. Beyond that, he would just need one of the unshaded states. Michigan is probably the least likely that he could win
You forgot NH going red
Weren't IL and PA going red?
Clinton has a double digit lead in NH.
and maine
The only one he has even a chance of winning is ohio. Everything else is going to Clinton.
IL no PA yes
PA started blue and is now suprisingly swing.
IL is one of the bluest states in the country. Don't let them electing a Republican governor fool you.
NH could go red, but Hillary has a solid hold on it right now. Trump has now tied hillary nationally, but NH is still strong for Hillary. I don't think he'll win it
IL will never go red. Don't believe the delusion. PA can go red, however.
Maine going red would be the shock of the night. Possible, but not likely
Clinton will win
Florida and Ohio won't support Trump
DREAM
DREAM
DREAM
DREAM DREEEEEAM
No this is it
Romney ran a terrible campaign against an incumbent president and lost it by less than 1%. Trump will outperform Romney there easily.
ohio wouldn't support hillary with a shitty made deck.
ME CD-2 is going red easy. Buncha lumberjacks.
He wont win Ohio either.
As of now this is stupid and youre retarded.
NC will absolutely be red. Like I said, the winner of the popular vote will win Ohio
Possible. Not like 1 EV will do much unless it's near 269-269
Thanks for the substantive contribution
trump is winning in a landslide. easily.
the shills ITT are violently shitting themselves while ignoring the fact that there were far more republican voters in the primary than democrat voters in addition to democrat voters being WAY down.
they also want to pretend that a model with a literal CENTURY of proven success does not exist:
www.primarymodel.com
>It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.
>For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.
stay afraid, shit heads. president trump is almost here.
>Clinton wins in the closest election in recent memory.
do you not remember 2000 or something?
bush literally won thanks to a couple hundred votes
IL is going red almost.
Cook can be overwhelmed by the surrounding counties, and cook itself can be turned red in the next four years. It's a gamble up in IL.
This is what I came up with.
PA is a tossup, but I'd say that Hillary has a small lead in the state as of now.
Trump could win, but Clinton has a clear electoral college advantage.
I'd give Trump a 25% chance of winning.
For the most part, I agree with Nate Silver's analysis.
Why is Nevada blue?
welcome my good sir, have a wonderful day.
>For the most part, I agree with Nate Silver's analysis.
opinion discarded
Seek help.
>Michigan fag
Why are we always fucking blue? We're like the most conservative state in the north
This looks right. I'd bet NC goes blue too.
Ohio will be red.
> Trump will outperform Romney there easily
based Trump's stellar handling of his presidential campaign?
Trump will definitely win Wisconsin- if you look at a political map of the state, everything is extremely conservative except Madison and Milwaukee being liberal shitholes.
Trump beat the state's sitting senator in the primary, he isn't running against an incumbent, and the democrats are running to win the white house for a third term in a row. All of that gives Trump an advantage
As is the case in Minnesota, it's the ultra-liberal urban areas full of minorities and their owners who pay them welfare and free gibmedat handouts. And there are a fucking lot of them.
This, forever believe in the primary model
> All of that gives Trump an advantage
what about the 'total fuckup of a candidate" factor?
I live in Nevada and it really doesn't feel like a red state. The rural parts are more libertarian than conservative and Reno and Vegas as pretty left wing. Hell we even have donkeys roaming around the state.
I think it'll go to Hillary.
Well if we're including shit like that which can't be quantified, should we include the corruption factor for Hillary?
how many white people live there?
I'm in Michigan as well, we do have a lot of very conservative areas that will go for Trump without a doubt, but our hyper-liberal college towns and areas packed to the brim with minorities will always, without fail, vote for the Democrat candidate, no matter who it is. That's why we're blue.
Yeah, hillary being a walking nightmare for her campaign managers makes it easy too you are right. Should have mentioned that but it is rather painfully obvious
>Nevada
>Florida
So fucking stupid.
this is how the elections turns out