How will it go down?

Does anyone else think that a big happening will occur before Nov. 8 causing one candidate to win in near unanimity?
Assange release some intense shit
Trump goes too far on some issue
Trump gets shot
Hillary poos herself
etc.

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There's at least a 20-25% chance that Trump says something so insane at one of the debates that he torpedoes his campaign and can't win any state outside of like Oklahoma, Kansas, Mississippi, etc. He could lose by 250 electoral votes.

The general debates aren't like the primary debates, if he says something genuinely stupid or shows he has no idea what he's talking about like when he showed he didn't know what the nuclear triad was, the moderator will call him on it and ask him to clarify and if he can't answer he's going to get killed for it.

If Assange had something that big on Hillary he'd have leaked it already. All of his last "happenings" have been jack shit.

is there not a genuine chance hillary does the same?

almost like you're not impartial

almost like you have some sort of agenda

almost

Just a reminder to everyone that the "polls" and "analysts" predicted a 10% chance for the BREXIT vote to win.


And yet look at what happened.................

There are a lot of people who won't publicly claim support for trump, but will write him down once in the booth. Just you wait..

There's a chance Hillary could but you're stupid if you think her chances of getting tripped up by a debate question are anywhere near Trump's. Hillary is a policy wonk. That's what she does. She's arrogant and basically robotic but nobody can claim she doesn't know her shit.

Trump's way of winning the debate is to tread water, manage the low expectations, and then later on try to paint Hillary as a "nerd" or "out of touch" similar to how Bush was able to mostly blunt Kerry in 2004 despite objectively losing the debates. I can't think of any actual policy based discussion where Trump has an edge on Hillary and the moderator won't allow him to play insult comic like he did at the primary debates.

But the word is that Trump literally isn't even studying meaning that whatever low bar the media is giving Trump, he could dig himself even deeper.

I'm betting Hillary's health will start to deteriorate making her unfit to be president. Unfortunately, it probably won't happen in time before the election. I just wish Trump stopped talking after the nomination, just walked up to the podium and stood there in silence for 45 minutes. Maybe read a few books too, so if he had to say something, he didn't look like an idiot.

I really think Assange has some coup de grace shit

either there's a genuine chance or there isn't. Which is it?

Here's how it goes down. Winner takes Ohio

What could he possibly have at this point? The emails he already leaked would be damning in any other year and the latest batches didn't even budge her numbers beyond the point of statistical uncertainty. What could he have that's better than that but also something that nobody else could find?

Trump's chances are 20-25%. He's already literally fallen on his face in a debate this year, just the format helped him out. Hillary's chances of flubbing a debate and having a "please proceed Governor" is more like 1%. Not only would she have to display ignorance, she'd have to display ignorance in a way that Trump saw coming and trapped her (like Obama did Romney). If you honestly think Trump could trap an experienced debater you're just not that bright.

Her chances of being tripped up and having her support erode are either outside interference (October surprise) or the rise of a 3rd party candidate that siphons more support from her than Trump. These are more likely but neither could be accurately pegged anywhere above 5%.

If you're betting on Hillary collapsing, you better believe Assange has something good that people actually care about.