Nightly update #4 (9/5/16):
Hello, I correctly predicted the outcome of the 2012 Presidential race 100%. Here is my current projection for 2016 based on 3 criteria:
#1) Latest Polls (weighted by accuracy)
#2) State-by-state demographic info
#3) Historical precedent
PROJECTION w/o battleground states: Clinton wins 325-213
Why is Maine's 2nd district red? New Hampshire would go red before it.
Otherwise, I agree with your projection.
Just going off the one poll that was taken there + demographics. Admittedly, it is highly unreliable, but until there's more data, it's my best guess.
This is what we will all wake up to.
I wish Massachusetts voted.
If it wasn't just the college crowd that voted here, and locals actually voted, Massachusetts would be red.
Republicans NEED to flip some Northern states. This is serious. They have a huge disadvantage in the EC.
How do we get the old white people of Maine and Wisconsin to vote against mass immigration?
Give him NC and that is pretty much Trump's ceiling right now.
If I was advising Trump's camp on how to spend their resources, I'd strongly recommend they spend it on these 4 states. All Trump needs is two of them plus Florida/NC to win.
PA ain't gonna be red
>Republicans NEED to flip some Northern states.
Don't worry, Trump is in presidential mode now.
If he wins PA, he wins the election. Winning PA means likely winning Ohio and Florida as well. If that happens, he could lose Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, and other such states and still win.
Pennsylvania could really decide this whole thing.
Republicans win in the event of a tie, yes?
In a normal world, yes. Could establishment House Reps pick Establishment Clinton from across the aisle? Also possible.
>Tie
>Happen in our lifetime
screencap this
betted on this ;)
PA wouldn't go red until after NC
kek, moran.
Anything showing Clinton with less than 400 EVs if pure wishful thinking, loser.
>pa
>red
Fuck you, yes it is!
t. Philly fag
>NEED to flip some Northern states.
The BLUE WALL just got 10 EVs taller!
We have it good up here, keep your massive shittons of FAIL down there where it belongs...
I had a conversation with you just the other day. I think you're a bit bullish in Clinton's chances in NV, and that NH should be light blue. WI and PA are rightfully light blue, but I believe that if Trump wins, he wins the electoral college because of one of those states.
Co is clinton
Yep, I'm really eager for more data on Pennsylvania especially. I think it's gonna be the tipping point. Per your map, I really don't think Michigan's out of play for Trump yet.
Pretty fair assessment based on polls so far.
Why was Iowa going blue of late? Just seems uncharacteristic of the region.
My expectation is that people will be motivated to actually vote this year, but our state government will rig things, anyway.
My map is biased towards Trump admittedly, but I still don't see how he could win MI. If there's a serious rush of support for him in the black community, then flipping MI is definitely possible.
oh fuck...
i don't want the right to take over maine
>NV blue
Kill yourself OP.
You're not even trying.
4 of the last 5 polls have Trump ahead still.
I'm a Sanders supporter, so I have no stake in the outcome really, which helps I guess. It was like that in 2012 when I was a Paulbot. Hated Romney and Obama equally.
Michigan had a couple Ipsos/Reuters polls recently that had Trump ahead, plus others that have Clinton ahead by about 5-6. Both MI and WI have the possibility of flipping I think.
If I'm totally honest, I would rather have Trump than Killary, though.
>presidential mode
My sides are on vibrate!!!
I'm not really trusting those Ipsos state polls. They have some strange results like Hillary winning Nebraska and Trump winning Maine.
I'm just waiting for the debates to see where the cards are falling. God help us if Hillary wins
Yeah, I have trouble trusting them too just because of the +16 they had in NH for Trump. They were more or less accurate in 2012 though.
Debates are gonna be huge.
I have space in mah bunker for you, sweetheart.
And your sister...
NV and AZ are both going Blue, and securing the Senate for the (D)s moran.
That Marquette poll for Wisconsin is really telling, though. If you're Hillary, you're worried for sure.
Yeah that's why I've moved WI to lean Hillary on my personal map and have it as a renewed battleground state. If anyone knows where that state is going, it's Marquette. Even Monmouth doesn't have good numbers for her there
Last point I want to make is that Trump needs to continue energizing his supporters. I notice in a lot fo these polls that Trump does better among "likely" voters than "registered" voters. Reminds me of the Sanders/Clinton primaries where Sanders needed new voters to turn out for him.
That goes into why I have Nevada leaning Clinton on my map. Latino voter registration is up, and it's going to be really hard for Trump to overcome that.
I know it's hard for you to understand very basic statistics, but Hillary's "lead" is well within the margin of error.
Trump needs to perform very well in these debates. He needs to be presidential, well-informed, and needs to take the fight to Hillary. Then the undecideds will break his way and bring him to victory.
It wouldn't hurt him to campaign hard in WI and PA, either.
Demographics are so so important. Romney didn't energize shit, and that's why Trump is such a wild card. Trump is the perfect type of populist Republican that can turn out white, working class voters and flip states like MI, WI, and PA red.
I almost expect Trump to do just that. I can almost imagine Hillary coming off condescending during the debates (expecting Trump to be the same), while Trump flips the script and acts calm and Presidential.
Anyway, goodnight, nice talking to you.
Keep up the same posting format so that we can pick up this conversation again when new polls come out
r8 my shitty armchair prediction
I'd say that's the current state of the race, as in what it would look like if everyone voted today.
bizarro land cant vote
Says who?
I hope based ReviewBrah will convince his fellow Pennsylvanians
Hue hue hue!!
Your tears of impotent rage will nourish my soul this November, LOSER!!!
pretty shitty. Romney results + Iowa? please.
Romney + Iowa + Ohio + Florida + one of any of the following: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada + Maine, Nevada + New Hampshire. Even Connecticut and Oregon can come into play in lieu of Nevada.
President Trump incoming.