After doing complex math for few minutes I've come with my prediction for the November election

After doing complex math for few minutes I've come with my prediction for the November election.

How did I do Sup Forums ?

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projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/#plus
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trump gets 1 EV from ME, loses WI, wins NH

It's reasonable. I'd throw in ME CD-2 for Trump as well, along with maybe PA. We need more polls to truly know.

Wrong. Johnson is getting AT LEAST 4 states. I'm willing to bet he surpasses Ross Perot.

The guy barely cracks 10% in national polls. I'd be shocked if he got more than 6% on election day nationally.

Johnson is pretty much in the shopping cart of the undecided voters. Two weeks before the election, most of his supporters are going to decide between one of the two major party candidates, and most will pick Trump.

Not an Aleppo

He's doing well in New Mexico. It could happen.

>when someone asks me why I'm moving away
>why I'm moving away from a country controlled by two parties that, when in power, do the same exact thing as each other

How exactly do you define "well"? He's been in last place in every single poll.

Bitch please no third party candidate is winning any state the only thing they will accomplish is maybe splitting the vote enough for one of the two main party candidates to get a state that usually wouldn't go for their party.

Pretty standard, though it's arguable what's more likely, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. New Hampshire and at least part of Maine is likely. I wouldn't be too surprised to see New Jersey either but that's least likely. Trump's state of birth, lots of Italians who love Trump, Chris Christie one of his earliest endorsers.

IA and WI are both solid blue

PA will go Democrat. Too many blacks.

How do you come to the conclusion that IA is solid blue? Pic related.

Wisconsin is probably Hillary +3-4. That's not solid.

Nice blogpost, you self absorbed tripfag. Gas yourself.

Rhode Island is going red this year.

Check the polls.

Wisconsin won't go red.

Not a single poll has him leading. I see a Clinton +3 poll, but that has to be grossly inaccurate. Just look at recent elections.

He's up by one right now.

According to RCP he's down 5.3 points.

That's including a poll from June where he's down 8 points though. The two more recent polls have him down 5, and then down 3. That's a ~4 point average, and it suggest he's closing the gap. He can close that gap by election day.

Where are you getting up by one from?

He's talking about the Ipsos poll. They're included on 538: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/#plus

> complex math
> a few minutes
Pick one.

Oh really? Let's not forget that Iowa has 2 GOP senators, a GOP governor, and 3/4 GOP districts.

WI has Scott Walker and Ron Johnson

look when they updated the poll you dipstick

More likely.

Yeah that's not going to happen. If he's winning PA, MI, and WI, he is definitely winning AZ and GA, along with NV, NH, and maybe even CO.

>Trump loosing GA, AZ, NV
>Winning.
Lolno

looks like martin shekreli's predictions?

This is more plausible than Trump winning Wisconsin or PA, I agree. Not sure about the Maine thing, but even if he ties he'll still win the tiebreaker probably.

He's more than likely going to win ME CD-2. But if there were a 269-269 tie, he would probably lose it due to Republican infighting.

You forgot the 1 vote for rural Maine!

It could definitely happen--has there been any polling in Maine even?

A tie situation would be a total shitshow, but the House republicans wouldn't give it to Shillary, and to have another name on the list of options, some elector would have to go rogue and just list someone (which would be sketchy and un-democratic as fuck).

>complex math
Please elaborate

if the house gave to to illary there would be an armed march to DC...

This will be the one.

The only two polls out of CD-2 have Trump +1 and Trump +5.

Even if this occurs Trump wins. The House is republican controlled. I personally expect a pretty hefty landslide from Trump because he is approaching everyone with open arms now while Hillary is still appealing to the fringe, but we will see.

...

So guys what is more likely to go red?
>WI
>MI
>PA
>NH + NV

It's literally impossible for him to win. Demographics are strongly against him.

nh, nv maybe wi

Just freeballing it but I'd say make ohio blue and Pennsylvania red. Besides that I think you're pretty good.

Most likely NV (not enough to win) > NH > PA > WI > VA > MI

Needs to also win IA, OH, NC, fL

CNN/ORC just had him up by 2 in their latest poll. They show the subgroups and how they polled. So the demographics meme does not apply

>literally

My concern is that Trump hasn't really built a data analytics operation to help make these decisions and decide which state to focus on. He'll need to take one of these stretch states to win.

>PA
>Too many blacks.
They're 10% of population here in PA. The biggest obstacle is that we have ~6.2mil men and ~6.5mil women and most of that gap is from whites

Maybe meme magic will bring a suitcase nuke to Philly or something.

Michigan is going red. Internal polls show over 65% are voting for Trump.

The DeVos family knows the stakes this time and is spending their billions to fund private military contractors and protect all polling locations in the state from voter fraud. Financial compensation deals have been made with EVM manufacturers in the form of an offer they can't refuse: Anyone attempting to bring electronic voting equipment of any kind into a polling location will be arrested on sight by armed Academi agents and tried for treason in January.

Similar arrangements have been made by other powerful groups in the swing states. This is part of why DHS wants to get involved: The election was already rigged against Trump via the EVM companies, but they have been taken out of the equation. DHS is making a countermove to try to outmaneuver the PMCs and get EVMs back in, but it's too little too late.

No matter where you are, start making preparations for the riots and false flag attacks after Trump wins. Guns, ammo, three weeks worth of food and water minimum.

t. insider

Trump will win
America will be great again
Check these dubs

This is my guess too, only problem is Virginia going Trump. The DC meme is real

Lolbertarians all have autism

NJ going red :DD

Trump wins so you did well.

I often come to this conclusion as well and it's fairly conservative in my mind. Wisconsin is the biggest question mark but there is just too much RNC party infrastructure there ie: Reince, sjw Paul Ryan and Scott Walker. I think it'll go red. I also think Pennsylvania as many of us here think will go red as well as some NE states like Maine or New Hampshire maybe even Vermont. I also think there is a decent chance Michigan goes red.

Trump won't win Wisconsin before winning PA, NH, and ME2.

Also these maps that we keep drawing really have us grasping at straws

Most will pick Hillary. Johnson's voters think Trump is racist and can't vote for him because of that

Yes but Hillary has a November advantage. Minorities are polling for Johnson right now but many will realize he has no chance

CNN/ORC poll has 6% of nonwhite voters polling for Johnson. Trump has 17%.

not bad.

Most of these maps look like election fanfiction to me.

I have faith he will take PA

but that means that Johnson's 6% will likely be lost Hillary voters