Http://predictwise.com/

If Trump is going to win, then why is the most sophisticated prediction market betting on a Hillary win?

>PredictWise reflects David Rothschild’s academic, peer-reviewed, research into prediction markets, along with polling and online/social media data. The backbone of predictions on this site are market-based, generated from real-money markets that trade contracts on upcoming events. While we have great respect for: polls and online/social media data, the topline predictions reflect data that are more accurate, flexible, and update in real-time.

>PredictWise is run wholly by David Rothschild an innovative, and stylish economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, but should in no way be construed as representing the views or predictions of Microsoft or any of its entities.

>Great piece about David in New York Times and He talks polling error in New York Times.

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Same reason they predicted Brexit wouldn't pass, and then it did.

Trump is going to win in a landslide and the liberal tears are going to be delicious.

really gets the almonds activated

Whose smarter, Lord Rothschild or Sup Forums?
Give it up, we know what's good for you!

Because not even the most sophisticated system can predict a ground roots movement that include silent demographics that haven't been part of the statistics before. I'm a 30y old, 24/7h politics / voting -pattern analyst / bettor, and the aforementioned reason explains these "surprises" quite often like it did with Brexit.

Also, because of what they have to be from a business point of view, they rely on conventional methods and sources for their data. They're turning into dinosaurs under the more advanced information gatherers and analysts like myself for example, who (yes i know it sounds ridiculous but this is what lead myself to the career i have) have spend their entire life at internet digging stuff up and detecting what "download button" is the correct one, if you know what I mean. The older generation simply doesn't have this and it can quite well be their downfall.

>David (((Rothschild)))

I found the reason

Prediction markets in the last week before Brexit were accurate.

Where? I didnt see any, especially after they killed that woman.

keep posts like these comin

Brexit was leading a week before the poll and Trump is nowhere near there. Why do Trump idiots keep going on about Brexit?

Links for archives? I did my last bet when they had already began to count the votes live and Remain was still 1/3 favourite.

>Jerk my meat to make me feel good just like shitposters do in /r/The_Donald.

>use bookies data
bookies just update their odds based on what people bet on. Their goal is to guarantee money to the bookie whatever the result. Thus bookies just reflect who the population think is going to win the election. Most people think Clinton is going to win, that's not news.

>predictwise.com/
>(((David Rothschild)))

>even asking this question

All odds and bookmakers had remain vote favoured until the very end of the vote, even when the pound dropping hundreds of points when it became clear leave was winning the bookmakers still had remain as the favourite.

Fuck off you aussie cunt go back to drinking your own piss in your irrelevant nation.

Yep. Models are not magical. They are constrained by their assumptions, inputs, and intent.

>David Rothschild’s academic, peer-reviewed, research

>David Rothschild
>peer-reviewed research

you can only choose one

Who, the board that thought this was legit? lmao

i went there looking to bet against it but the website doesnt let me.
aka its shit and that ugly kike knows it

all the betting markets had remain in huge leads

even polling just the day before had remain in large leads

A woman sat at her desk staring down at her study notes, brow creased in concentration, because she is focussed on passing her exam. You stare for long moment at the photo, trying to figure out how this scene could possibly be sexy because you know how stressful study is, but then you notice the Gucci bag next to her laptop. You suddenly know that this young woman is determined to make the most out of herself and build her empire and this is sexy

Because this election is following the same pattern with Brexit on every crucial indicator about the outcome. Comparing them is mostly intuitive for people, yes, but there's a whole iceberg below if you care to look at it with a critical mind.

Win? Trump won't even get the Republican nomination!

All the top experts tell me so.

>(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((David Rothschild)))))))))))))))))))))))))
>aka King Hooknose
Nice, good argument against PredictWise

>David Rothschild
watch it jews

DNC primary were and polls are easy to rig.
In general election results can only be skewed slightly without leaving a paper trail evidence.

>why is the most sophisticated prediction market betting

1. people are betting.
2. people are emotionally invested in seeing a political outcome.
3. echo chamber
4. prediction based on partisan polls
5. the best ROI will go to the single guy who bet against the market, when the market was wrong
6. MUH WISDOM OF CROWDS

markets dont have magical secret information nobody else has dumbass

pic related, there's your market predictions in action.

Trumbfags stumped again.

By the way who is this nice lad " David Rothschild" on the header of the web?

...

>Rothschild

I found your problem right there

I really really wish I had bet on brexit, I fucking knew it was going to happen

It was good. Quit my day-job after that one. You can do the same with US election.

I'm even broker now than I was then, also this isnt as much a sure thing since there could easily be some fuckery involved this time

Underrated response