BREAKING THE CONDITIONING

BREAKING THE CONDITIONING

Other urls found in this thread:

newrepublic.com/article/110597/exclusive-the-polls-made-mitt-romney-think-hed-win
latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-sac-essential-politics-updates-california-here-are-all-of-your-1477703160-htmlstory.html
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-danger-of-the-political-limelight/
countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

BABY ARE YOU DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN

Is this real

>(((nate ytterbium)))

Please ignore thread and let it slide thank you.
sage

Sometimes I think that No Metal Nate dyslexic and colorblind. Then I remember he's just a dribbling fucktard that couldn't predict the color of his own shit.

it's from a shitty LA times tracking poll that has been heavily biased in favor of Trump this whole time. They have one black guy who likes Trump, so that gives him a huge advantage in their result.

Not anymore, they fixed this issue.

>heavily biased in favor of Trump

But I thought the polls weren't rigged. :^)

One guy isn't going to make that big of a difference

>ctr shill: we have to make fiction to justify our jobs

Nate has to adjust his models to be more realistic, so he won't be totally out of a job. Expect the shift to continue.

>CTR still thinks there getting paid after the FBI finished beheading the Clinton campaign.

It's probably the most honest poll you're going to find out there. Any poll with Hillary up now is a sack of shit. She's taken blue after blow this last month and her campaigns been taking on water, were just in time to watch it finally go all the way under.

he can.
these polls take individuals and interpret them as groups of people.
one polled educated black man voting trump can mean trump's popularity among educated black men in america just went up by 25%

That guy does affect the black vote, but not the overall numbers.

Only 25%?
Aren't there only like 5 or 6 in the country?
For a sample size of like, 1000, then just talking to that guy could give the impression that the South Side of Chicago or Gary Indiana just doesn't exist!

trump jumped the shark.

Unfotunately it's too late. The people are waking up but Queen Hillary will *just* pull it off. We 're at a threshold where people have just become complacent and docile enough to control forever.

Give it up burgers, you're about to become Canada II. You will look to us for guidance and begin to see us as your superiors and masters in this Brave New World.

am I supposed to actually believe this image

romney failed in 2012 because he let his internal polls be biased by brown nosers, which is the same thing thats happening in Sup Forums and no doubt, in trumps campaign.

the only positive spin one can do is that many people were wrong about just how retarded the republicans were this year, so people kept doubt trump.

But since we knew already how delusional the republicans were, that doesn't easily translate to the national election, because it's not trump against the soft bellied white men.

>Texas
>red

HONESTLY FUCK WHITE PPL

He was at 8% two weeks ago.

He's going up bubba-dub.

In Nate's map IA is leaning red. So, it's actually safe red! Boys add another state to the map.

Brown noisers? Are you refering to black voter turnout? Because that is actually down this year as seen in NC and Ohio's early voting data were blacks are at their strongest.

>She's taken blue after blow this last month and her campaigns been taking on water, were just in time to watch it finally go all the way under.

I think you're confusing Trump with Clinton.

He aliented all the undecideds (who are the smartest voting group) forever.

Nate Paper has no credibility left.

Fucking DNC joker.

Was one of the more accurate one in 2012

Shut up Leaf fag

Don't trust Nate's model too much.

No, I'm talking about Romney's internal pollsters.

newrepublic.com/article/110597/exclusive-the-polls-made-mitt-romney-think-hed-win

BOYS I NEED TO ANNOUNCE THAT CALIFORNIA IS NOW IN PLAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

>California, your official presidential write-in options include Bernie Sanders and Evan McMullin
latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-sac-essential-politics-updates-california-here-are-all-of-your-1477703160-htmlstory.html
OPERATION SPLIT CALIFORNIA COMMENCING NOW

JOIN THE CAMPAIGN

SIGN UP AT YOUR LOCAL MEMETIC WARFARE RECRUITMENT OFFICE TODAY!!!!


TRUMP NEEDS YOU!

Just accept it now. The pain will be far less if you just stay numb and do as you're told.

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Oh. Well, Romney stopped campaigning in the last month and that plus the 47% comment finished him off. Probably also the fact that thanks to Obama, the black vote was super high.
Trump isn't doing the same mistake. He has 4 rallies a day and is spending millions on ads.

>CTR cuck

Btfo

...

There seems to be litterally no difference between Sup Forumss swing state declarations and romney pollsters.

>1 in 5
if 1 or 6 Trump wins

>black vote was high.

The grand bulk of black people live in red states, the black vote doesn't mean shit except for NC

As you're not here, no one's taught you how the representative system works, or how the electoral college makes national polls a useless way to gauge who wins.

To win the election, you need to lock up a set number of states, and using a national poll to tell you if you're winning is very poor politics _and_ statistics.

>tfw Trump won't win even if he wins Florida, NV, NC and holds every leaning red state on the map
>he still needs to flip one of PA, MI, WI, or NH+ME 2nd district

Is Nate Boron just a meme? W-we can still win, right?

You don't know shit. There are enough blacks in VA, FL, PA, MI and OH that stop the states from turning red. Now that their turnout is evidently down, he's looking increasingly likely to win FL and OH and could flip one of the other states mentioned above.
I know about your system.

See there is a chance he can win. 1/5 is decent odds. You said 1 or 6, And it was both

>The people are waking up
You guys have been saying this for over a year.
What kind of über-Xanax are you taking?

LA Times tracking poll, as of today

Oh...

saying "Oh voter turn out is down" is a poor man's excuse for no date and too much Sup Forums nazi propaganda.

How about data? A group of 100% D supporters having lower turnout is extremely concerning for Clinton.

>he grand bulk of black people live in red states, the black vote doesn't mean shit except for NC

Let's see here.
>NC
>MI
>Pen
>Ohio

hee hee xd

He will need about 10-20 electoral votes to win, and that's assuming he wins all the close states. That means he'll need to win PA or a couple of the western states like CO that are leaning to Hillary.

We'll see if the latest email scandal damages Hillary enough to make a difference.

note, the only poll which favors Trump.

Most likely, they go unlucky and started with a biased group of individuals. what they should be doing is finding a means ot unbias their data before they look like morons for suggesting Trump has a lead.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-danger-of-the-political-limelight/

ok. you got data.

watf does it mean, smarty nazi.

>26 states control 80.6% of the vote (is this popular vote or %/electoral college votes?)
>24 states essentially disenfranchised

How is this a good system again?

Early voting data points to him winning FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ (if you consider that Romney was ahead by 9% and that the amount of Indepedents has effectively doubled) and possibly NV.
They had it right the last time. Now why would it go wrong this time around?
Black voter turnout in early voting in NC down by over 20% (compared to 2012). And Romney won that state.

that's not how statistics work, nor democracy.

The alternative is big cities controlling everything.

because when it was created representatives had to travel by horseback across the country

>They have one black guy who likes Trump
plenty of black people like trump, having zero pro-trump black guys means you're skewing it in the other direction

What you've described is literally what's happening on team Hillary you fucking cuck. At no point has Trump EVER gotten arrogant about where he stands in this election, because the MSM and pollsters have built the narrative for months that the election is in the bag for Hillary. Don't try and revise history now, the damage is already done. Hillary and her supporters are the cocky faggots from 2012 x 1000 and are headed straight for Brexit style destruction in November.

Eat a fucking dick faggot.

Trump really needs PA and Florida.

>Early voting data points to him winning FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ

(source)

Hillary has been winning the early ballots overall convincingly.

my retarded ass thought this as a graph of how the candidates are doing in Ohio for like 5 whole minutes because of the light gray background
I fucking live in Ohio, it shouldn't take me that long to realize it doesn't look like that.

if trump loses florida he can't win

>NO U

ISHYDDT

countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Florida alone. Obama was ahead 250k ahead in them in 2012 and won the state by 80k. Trump is still ahead in mail+in-person voting despite the fact that many Republican counties haven't started early voting yet.

>AUG 1
Great post

Calm down my dude. Wow.

> Getting triggered this much on an anonymous nepalese gymnastics board.

>Early voting data points to him winning FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ (if you consider that Romney was ahead by 9% and that the amount of Indepedents has effectively doubled) and possibly NV.

Even if he carries all of those states he still needs 5 more electoral votes to win. He really needs to flip one of PA, CO, WI, MI, or NH + a district from ME. All of these are leaning heavily blue right now.

It's a long shot, but 1 in 5 odds of him winning are by no means impossible to overcome. I guess we'll see.

As I understood it, big cities do control the vote. Citizens in big cities will vote Democrat while everyone else in the state will vote Republican.

I don't know what %s they are talking about. 80.6% of what?

I didn't think early voter ballots were counted until election day?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

All you need.

Actually, ME 2nd has him ahead. So he's at 261-266 EV atm. Of course, turning CO, VA, PA, MI, NH, ME (whole) or WI won't be easy, but Hillary's most recent scandal should help.

...

the black guy doesn't get polled anymore since a few weeks ago.

just googling my waifu

>I didn't think early voter ballots were counted until election day?
They don't, but many states have data avaible on party afflination and that data can be compared to 2012.
Trump rose 1% in a day in the rcp poll and 3% in the 538 model. I'm looking at early data, not predictions.

>Citizens in big cities will vote Democrat while everyone else in the state will vote Republican.
Yes, but that doesn't happen everywhere. Plenty of states are rural and some have suburbs/rural areas outnumbering the big cities. Without the electoral college, democrats just have to go to big cities, get everyone there to vote blue like they always do, and they'll win every election. At least with the electoral college, the republicans have a slight chance.

>abc news tracking
Down to just 2% ;^)

Protip: the polls have been tightening recently.

probably to win.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

they aggegate the polls, then break them down by state. Pretty much just a probably map based on historic data.

The trumpulets always want to covet one random poll which shows them winning, despite all evidence to the countrary.

good goy

Nigga, early voting data is already out and it's pointing to a Trump win. Romney was ahead in Florida in RCP and still lost the state because the MOE is pretty high.

I'm so happy that no matter what happens your out of a job in a week and a half you fucking faggot.

Stop trying to correct the record faggot. You lost, Hillary lost and trump won

Early voting data is broken down by democrat and republican.

Sad to say: word on the street is Gary Johnson is splitting the republicans.

And again, confusing intensity of voting with absolute numbers is what did romney in.

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>Gary Johnson is splitting the republicans.
AHAHAHAHAWHAHAHA

>the republicans have a slight chance.
Less and less every year it seems

I'll never understand party affiliations. I come from a blue collar family and was always taught that who you vote for is "between me and my god".

>Gary Johnson is splitting the republicans.
I've heard this same thing. It is like Ross "The Boss" Perot all over again.

>gary johnson
>getting anywhere near perot numbers
are you autistic?

>Less and less every year it seems
No argument here. That's why we need Trump right now or it's too late.

Everyone in this thread is fucking retarded. Hillary will "win" barely and the investigation will finish after the election. Hillary will be impeached and Kaine will emerge as our next president

> yfw Kaine was the man pulling the strings the whole time

...

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>meanwhile actual votes
:^)

Hahaha get ready for the shock of your life loser

even if that was all true, you know he has to win ALL of the states on that list right?

Nobody on the street is saying that. Quit making shit up because he pulled from Hillary so the media buried him.

again, there's been no suggestion that republicans are voting en masse.

It's a delusion to think this.

But please, continue to tell everyone Trumps going to landslide.

What world do these people live in? GA and NC are "battlegrounds"? The only things trump might lose on that list are WI, and CO.

>need all
>need Pa
>need Virginia
ok