One week left

and Trump still has a 19.6% chance of winning according to Five Thirty Eight. How on earth do you think Trump can have a 60% swing in one week?

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=6K4QcTjtJPA
youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/30/post-abc-poll-finds-tight-presidential-race-with-mixed-reaction-to-fbis-review-of-clinton-e-mails/
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

By not putting Nate Bronze in charge of predictions.

that poll is aids. Trump has a higher chance of winning than not winning at this point. Expect Brexit effect and consider that he is winning in key battleground states. The dude is even four points ahead in the northern Minnesota district ffs. not even Reagan could pull that shit off lmao

>By not putting Nate Bronze in charge of predictions.

Ouch. 80%?

80.4+19.6+0.1 = 100,1

Nate Silver everyone

>Nate Bronze
right now he is pretty much Nate Brass

>Trump has a higher chance of winning than not winning at this point

Said nobody outside of Sup Forums.

>Expect Brexit effect

Already been debunked.

> and consider that he is winning in key battleground states.

Based off the demographics and voting history the only swing states he could win is Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio. Every other battleground state is polling for Hillary.

>The dude is even four points ahead in the northern Minnesota district ffs.

I remember some faggot on Fox News saying Romney would win Minnesota in 2012, and Romney was far far more closer to Obama in 2012 than Trump is currently.

>not even Reagan could pull that shit off lmao

I'll be sure to save your post and post it all day every day after you lose user.

>implying kek silver has any relevance

>

...

Great crop man

So everyone here hates Nate Silver? I'm guessing this is based on a critical assessment of his statistical model and not just because he states (truthfully) that Hillary is more likely to win the election at the moment.

Some techie took fivethirtyeights raw data and presented it without bias, had Trump at 72%

Saw it on redit

>Saw it on redit

You should go back

...

Link pls

Sup Forums perfers North Korean style propaganda saying Trump's campaign is doing fine and he'll win in a landslide than accept cold hard facts.

Trump doesn't have women, moderates, Latinos, and African American voters. You can't win an election without a significant number of these voting blocs.

I knew I saved this video for a reason, to debunk this Briexit meme.

youtube.com/watch?v=6K4QcTjtJPA
youtube.com/watch?v=6K4QcTjtJPA
youtube.com/watch?v=6K4QcTjtJPA

I think it's silly for him to try and pretend he is objective when it's clear where his allegiance lies

That makes the assumption that turnouts for dems and particularly African Americans match Obama turnout, which is incredibly unlikely.

There was tons of excitement for "We President Now". There's virtually none for Hillary.

epic meme. i alternate between here and there

sometimes they have news there faster than Sup Forums

In a society where everything you say is now recorded and catalogued, who in their right mind would actually tell a Jew who they are voting for in a poll? A nigger probably will. Anyone else...also, she gets no crowds. not even spics or niggers.
compare to stadiums king nigger was filling.

>Saw it on redit
please, stay there. you pick up mannerisms, cancer, it transfers. Just stay there for the greater good of everyone.

>epic meme. i alternate between here and there

Yes and you should go back. Remember when Sup Forums wasn't full of Trump redditors?

CTR panic mode. You'll be out of a job in a week, Jew.

>debunk this Briexit meme
>a time plot of recorded odds is a meme

>cold hard facts
>facts like Nickel Nate's opinion pieces and huffington post

>according to Five Thirty Eight

Nate Silver predicted Trump having a 2% chance of winning primaries

His claim to fame was guessing 49 out of 50 states last election. As though that's some amazing feat

>listening to Nate Plastic

Add me to the list faggot.

Nov 9th I'll be busy drinking your tears, gallons worth.

Trump will win, not by a little, but by a lot.

This blowout will be huge.

Hillary will go to prison and we will never hear from you again.

LOSER

She's +1 in the polls right now. And thats not even counting the FBI effect.

Lol it's no meme my friend.

The polls are ridiculously rigged, pic related.

They tried to do the same thing with Brexit and they are failing the same way.

Trump is gonna win the general election 10 times.

Depends on what you're looking at. The "Chances of winning" numbers are basically full of shit. The actual polls from reliable pollsters are useful.
Those polls are approaching the margin of error in several key states, so yeah it's going to be close.

>8960x4472
the fuck dude?

m8 i've been here for 5 years i use reddit because Sup Forums is too conspicuous for the workplace

besides, the_donald is a colony of Sup Forums, a work safe variant.

Never tell me the odds

To be fair, Nate just aggregates the polls, if they aren't accurate then obviously his model won't be either.

>Nate nickle

That's RCP, not 538.

a 19.6% chance is very significant especially considering it's the biased as hell fivethirtyeight

This.
I do wonder whether he's bothered to account for the known-bad polls since Podesta leaks but I really just can't be bothered researching it.

20% is actually still pretty significant. It's like if you had five gumballs in a bag, and 4 of them were blue but one of them was red. The chances of Trump winning are the chance of drawing the red gumball. Chances aren't great, but still, chances are also very much in the realm of possibility.

If pollsters released data from the raw random samplings, things would be different.

Even that data can be manipulated however as when a surveyor calls and you say you're R, they can just hang up immediately and act like no one ever answered.

Basically polls this election have been compromised and aren't valid. It's been proven over and over.

To know where the election is actually close, look at where the candidates spend their time in the final days (or in Hillary's case, where she sends her lapdog president Obama to).

>leee polls are wrrong maymay

Serious questions for you bellends: if Trump actually was losing how would we know?

No, Nate actually (((adjusts))) and (((weighs))) the polls he gets. It's not just a simple aggregate.

Take it from the Brexit experience - (((They))) lie

his rallies would be as small as hillarys

So he just makes them even more inaccurate

>if Trump actually was losing how would we know?

He would have FBI re-open an investigation on him and he'd struggle to gather 1000 people on average rally, and his VP would be having rallies with ~50 people.

youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

>his rallies would be as small as hillarys

That's why Ron Paul and Sanders are president now. News flash the silent majority isn't Republican you guys keep talking about.

Well, according to him, it's to make them more accurate, but I have no idea what his criteria for accuracy is.

Nate is already wrong

>He would have FBI re-open an investigation on him and he'd struggle to gather 1000 people on average rally, and his VP would be having rallies with ~50 people.

So I guess Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders as president now? I don't need to show up to some faggy rally to vote. The facts is that most Americans are Democrats over Republicans and demographically you CAN'T WIN WITH ONLY WHITE MALE VOTERS!

You don't mind if I save this post for election night right user?

>Anyone else...also, she gets no crowds. not even spics or niggers.

This is pretty much the hard truth. Apathy outweighs hatred for Trump, and the news has been saying Hillary will win by a landslide for months. Many Dems probably won't even bother voting, since Drumpf has a "~18%" chance.

> actual polls make the result too close to call
> (((538))) claims trump needs +60% swing to win
washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/30/post-abc-poll-finds-tight-presidential-race-with-mixed-reaction-to-fbis-review-of-clinton-e-mails/

why should we even bother with actual votes when (((538))) has already declared hilldawg the victor?

Sure thing cuckold, his lead increases everyday so I have been posting a new one everyday.

Reminder obama won combined early voting by over 100k 2012 and won the state by 70k.

It's over for you cucks

The world series gives me hope.

The most recent ABC news poll has Clinton at +3. Last week it was at +12. It's one of the most biased polls out there with a huge oversampling of democrats and it's shown a double digit lead for Hillary almost the entire election. What does CTR make of a 9 point drop in 1 week and how can they seriously assume that sort of momentum doesn't change Trump's odds AT ALL?

So I guess Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders had the FBI open an investigation on them 10 days before the election? So I guess Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders keep dropping by 2% per day in A-rated polls? So I guess Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders kept cancelling events 10 days before the election?

>AN'T WIN WITH ONLY WHITE MALE VOTERS!

He'll get just enough of white female votes too. Suck my superior white cock, nigger bitch faggot.

Also in NC. White voters up 10%
Nig voters down 20%

Romney won that state

>his lead increases everyday

Wow he will increase 60% in 9 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This doesn't necessarily mean the polls are wrong. I think when people look at this kind of graph, they assume it means "85% of people will vote for remain", but that's not how it works.

It means what it says: 85% of the time, remain would win, the other 15%, leave would win. The fact that leave won with a 15% chance is not extraordinary. Unlikely sure but not outside the real of possibility.

>He'll get just enough of white female votes too.

>first women president
>women won't vote for her

You are delusional

538 gives Trump a 35% chance of winning Florida. Do you understand the difference between someone saying Trump "has a lower chance of winning but could" and "definitely will not win" ?

In person only has 7 days left in florida.

Pic related from 2 days ago. Florida is already his. Time to blow your brains CTR cuck because we are getting president trump

Ron Paul and Bernie rallies are literally a tiny fraction of Trump rallies.

Trump rally attendance is unprecedented and historic. If they could log attendance, spillover, and people who were turned away, Trump rallies could be the biggest "event" possibly ever.

>the_donald is a colony of Sup Forums

The community that is constantly hoisting Trump-supporting nigs and fags is a colony of Sup Forums? Funny.

I'm sorry that you only know 600-pound vapid feminist cunts and not actual women, nerd virgin. :^)

>Unlikely to win
>Edges early voting, something democrats dominate in and barely won that state the last time
Nate silver is a retard who got famous for predicting a easy election. The actual data is blowing him the fuck out.

How certain are you that Trump will win Florida based on those figures? 100%? 95%?

indians desu

even most women can recognize that she's a nasty woman, it's just a matter of who they think is worse, trump or hillary

>Time to blow your brains CTR cuck because we are getting president trump

How about you suck my dick faggot? Trump has even LOWER vote by mail than Romney did in 2012. Guess who won that? pro-tip not romney.

because everyone underestimates the power of shitposting from pol

Nate Paperclippings

>Trump rally attendance is unprecedented and historic.

He's the most hated candidate in US history. His unfavorable numbers are off the fucking chart. Yeah 's unprecedented in how much of a fucking faggot he is. His faggy supporters are the biggest laughing stock on the planet.

...

You realize obama won combined early voting by 100k right cuck? You realize hilldawg is losing right cuck? When is she going to over take him? When is in person voting going to over take absentee? Because it happening cuck. Get ready for president trump99.5%

>according to Five Thirty Eight
Who gives a fuck about their predictions?

Yet he already won florida

HE DIDN'T DIDN'T YOU STUPID NIGGER FAGGOT

Is that desperation I smell, nerd virgin? :^)

>women enthusiastically cuckold themselves for other women and aren't crabs in a bucket

>Yet he already won florida

Oh I get it, trumpfags are so delusional they are spending the next 9 days pretending he already won the election!

Yes he did, nerd virgin. Triggered much?

yeah funny. ha ha. you're cool.

The man is in danger of losing fucking TEXAS.

The fool creates so many new battlegrounds it's impossible for him to win them all.

Good try.

Unfortunately you'll be needing to look for new work soon. It's going to be hard because you've kind of pigeonholed yourself into the whole "borderline retarded CTR troll poster" job market niche though.

>hard working Americans with families and stable jobs are a laughing stock

LMAO

>loosing texas

Top kek he's up by 7 in the last polls, he's going to win it with a comfy +12 lead at least

Nate adjusts polls based on the idea that all polls are "biased". In practice this means he gives a 2 or 3 percent points extra to Hillary in almost every poll he adjusts.

He also weights polls based on some pretty arbitrary factors.

In the past two elections, he was right about virtually all states because that was a very easy and predictable election. Of course the charismatic nig was going to win against Generic Old White Guy #1373919.

Now, nothing is clear because both candidates are absolutely trash. Clinton is a creepy war hawk with a long, long list of scandals. No one likes her and all liberals (except nigs and a few useful idiots) are swallowing their pride when voting for her (using that "lesser of two evils" bullshit argument). Trump on the other hand is the worst thing that ever happened to American nationalism, forever poisoning the well of the anti-immigration position. I wouldn't be surprised if he is a plant from the Clinton clique.

Either it is going to be the lowest turnout ever, or the highest turnout since the 1960s. Who knows.

>The man is in danger of losing fucking TEXAS.

Based on what? In Texas he's like 12 points ahead in the latest polls.

Well he already won NC and florida that is for sure. He already won ohio and iowa. Better hope you can keep your shit together in Pa and Nevada

...

>His faggy supporters are the biggest laughing stock
this

You are all drones.
You have no individual traits or characteristics.
You share the same, malfunctioning brain cell.
You parrot the same simplistic lines.
You copy-paste the same autistic memes.
You align with the same fuck-witted ideologies.
You worship the same moronic messiahs.
You're the very, mindless automatons that you so wish to avoid becoming.
YOU ARE THE IMBECILIC INCARNATION OF IRONY.

You have no opinions of your own.
You only parrot what you've been indoctrinated with.
Your neural pathways are irrevocably fucked in place.
You spurn logic, rationale and reason.
You espouse only that which re-enforces your existing prejudice.
You cannot be taught, edified or redeemed.
You do not want to be saved.
You live in a blissful Twilight Zone of absurdity.
YOU ARE NON COMPUS MENTIS.

You're the very chattels that demagogues rise to power on the kyphotic backs of.
You're the very pismires that are first to be trampled by the tyrannies you unwittingly canonise.
You're self-defeating, self-immolating, martyrs of ignorance.
You're the alcoholic, drug addict, sugar fiend, greed afflicted junkies.
You're the Fox News- / Brietbart- / InfoWars- / Kardashians-reared retardates.
You're the nonentity keyboard jockeys of inaction.
You're the bilious blowhards of impotence.
You're the cogs in the cycle of idiocy that enthrals you.
YOU ARE YOUR OWN WORST ENEMIES.

You're all self-haters.
You're unhappy.
You're discontented.
You're confused.
You're melancholic.
You're in denial.
You seek not solutions, only turmoil.
You want the world to burn, not thrive.
YOU ARE AN ANATHEMA TO THE SPECIES.

You deserve your fate.
You deserve subjugation by despots and dictators.
You deserve to be trodden on.
You deserve your evolutionary retardation
You deserve your imminent extinction.
You are bound to your condign fate.
Your passing will elicit no pathos.
You will not be remembered.
YOU WILL BE FORGOTTEN.