Britfag here

Britfag here.

Can anyone explain the current situation with early voting. The media insists that Hillary is wrecking him. What is really happening?

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Well.....the powers that be didn't want trump to win.....so they bolstered Clinton.....then they felt they went too far as it looked like the democrats had a chance of controlling both houses which they didn't want......so now we have this recent fbi broo-ha-ha to limit the margin by which Clinton wins.

The status quo will prevail.

she's winning a lot more of the early votes and dems are turning out in higher margins for early votes

it's not all bad for trump, but he's definitely not performing well. I mean she's winning in a deep red state like nevada.

Keks will

Is Reddit/the Donald just Sup Forums extended

I thought that he was winning Florida? And don't Repubs lose early voting every year anyway?

The media doesn't know shit and is acting as a partisan agent.
No polls are reliable, and it hasn't to do with poll rigging, but merely with the fact they're all projections of former voter bases that don't apply anymore.
Usually you have left goy and right goy, and everything is pretty much the same because goyim just pick their favorite shabbos goy, so you can take the results from the former election and use it as a foundation for somewhat accurate polling.

However, this election is supergoy vs bad goy, so the goyim are behaving abnormally. You can't extrapolate anything from last elections because it's apples and oranges.

To give you an example, most media polls are using D+12 (this means they'll sample more democrats than republicans by 12 points). This is because during last election the margin of error they got was D+6. So by some strange twist of logic they are assuming D/R margins have kept going further apart in a linear fashion. 6+6=12, herp da derp, I know.
We could talk all day about how retarded it is to assume this, given Hillary is an unappealing little shit and much less marketable than Obama. I would go as far as to say she's not getting pro-hillary votes, she's getting the anti-trump votes.

But none of this matters. Even if you could unskew polls, it wouldn't matter. This is an unprecedented situation and there is no fucking known model to use.

tl;dr polls are bullshit, no matter what they say

she may be getting early votes but that's because of the minority "ground game" (bussing blacks and latinos to polling stations)

whites vote on election day and we still have the majority.. God help us

Its the red line that matches Trumps side profile, look from only the redline and disregard the blue

Kek wills it.

Check muh prime

Also, sorry I mixed this up with another thread.

>Old people are usually early voters
>average legacy media news viewer is 60 years of age.
>Legacy media largely anti trump

You do the math of what comes next

...

>I mean she's winning in a deep red state like nevada.

Trump is ahead by +4 in Nevada according to the most recent polls.

Republicans are winning early voting in Florida, Arizona, and Iowa

Democrats are winning early voting in North Carolina and Nevada BUT they're winning by lower margins than in 2012, especially in NC because there are fewer black voters voting early

In 2012, the Dems won early voting in NC but Romney won the state. Republicans, on average, don't do the mail-in ballots and prefer voting in person.

Don't fall for the (((early voting))) meme

Republican win confirmed

Wait, I've thought Trump is winning the early votings.

It doesn't matter, undecideds and independents don't do early voting. Only the hardcore supporters do.

As someone who is highly intelligent and very well informed, Trump is doing very well. Short of assassination or him eating a baby on live TV, he probably has an 80% chance of winning.

I'm too lazy to give the hundreds of reasons why this is.

Dems early voting is way down but they still beat Republicans.

It's anti-Hillary shilling. If we let the Democrats think they're winning, they won't come out to vote on Election Day.

What time US would we find out who won? Will it show state by state or release all at once?

Breaking with Sup Forums tradition. A no bullshit answer for you.
Varies by state. In Ohio, Reps are outpacing previous years and Dems are behind previous years. Ohio is locked for Trump. NV looks basically the same as last election, which means it's likely locked for Hillary at this point. Ditto Colorado. Florida and NC are big question marks. Dem turnout is better relative to rep turnout than previous elections, but down compared to their own turnout in previous elections. Those two states could really go either way.

Trump is losing the overlaid polls but winning in a few single polls.

I can't believe it, but this is actually an unbiased and accurate assessment of what we know about the early vote at this point.

It goes state by state. The absolute earliest that they will confirm who won the election is 11 PM on the east coast. Eastern state results will start coming in at 7 PM eastern time. If it looks like Hillary is going to win PA, NC, VA, NH, and FL, there won't be much suspense.

the only quibble I have with is that I wouldn't call OH or NV locks for either of them at this point.

The MSM colluded with Hillarys campaign to bolster up her image to secure more donations to use to buy more votes.

In reality she's losing everywhere from polling to early voting, but the msm won't let you know about it.

kek

You may be right on OH not being a lock, thought I'd still bet money that it goes Trump. I'm pretty confident about NV being Hillary just due to how much of that state votes earl (usually between 70 and 80%).
I'd also say that Iowa is pretty safely Trump. Wisconsin is probably going Clinton, but by a much tighter margin than it really should for a Democrat.

Originally, but now the situation is reversed. Yesterday a bunch of JIDF and t_d faggots were convincing themselves that Sup Forums doesn't actually hate Jews

Yes, but they usually win absentee voting by much greater margins than we're seeing this year

gookmoot is so fucking useless
::stopspooky::

t. nate copper

Yeah the fact that the GOP isn't giving up on that WI Senate race and HRC put some ads up there is interesting. I'm guessing disaffected Bernie voters might be holding Clinton back a little bit, but you'd think they'd turn out for Feingold.

Ohiofag here. I would say like 55-60% gonna be Trump.
I have fingers crossed for NV, but you are probably right. Agree that Iowa will probably be Trump. I really feel like we're gonna see a very slight Trump upset in Wisconsin.

Yeah, both WI and MI will be within 5-7 points. I expect them to go blue, but Donald is running out of paths considering that PA is also in the 5-7 blue range, It's really his best play to focus on those three states and try to flip at least one of them. He could do it, but I still think it's an outside chance.

I give him the same odds in WI that Clinton has in AZ. About 47% probability

I have no idea. Of the places we can know how many republicans, democrats, and independents, Trump is either winning with just republicans, or winning once you input the percentage of independents the (((polls))) claim he has. Granted, this rings with one big assumption: total party loyalty, and that the sample of independents (which were massively under-sampled in pretty much every poll) is accurately described by the numbers in the (((polls))).

Note early voting isn't just early votes, early voting includes both abseentee ballots AND early votes. Republicans haven't won that in the places Trump is winning in decades. Here in Sup Forums there's this odd tendency of people to claim Hillary is winning early voting for a given state, when you point out that's not the case that Trump is, they'll claim what he's actually just winning the absentee voting, which isn't true. Do not let them confuse you.

PS:
Fun factoid, which perhaps does explain it: in total early votes, once you combine all states, Hillary does have an edge over Trump (3% points), but that's without the independents, which have shown a predilection in average for trump of 40-42%, vs Clintons 36-38%, with the rest going to third parties. If the greens end up listening to Jill's advice to either vote her or Trump, you have an extra 3% going to Trump, and so on.

We'll see how his rally in WI goes tonight. Potential to put him just over the top.

WHAT THE FUCK, THIS THREAD IS BLESSED, praise Kek

Looks like WI is ours.

Wow I heard Trump was out in front in Nevada.

Thanks for Correcting my Record™

Probably his best chance at a victory. If he takes FL, WI, OH, IA, AZ, and NC, he doesn't need PA, CO, or NV

OP this helped me

youtu.be/3MVlRqS6R0I

Isn't Nevada more likely than Wisconsin?

Yeah I've just watched it myself and it's good but doesn't even talk about crucial states.

I really don't think it is. NV is a state where 70+% vote early and she's dominating the early vote. Even a strong performance on election day probably can't save him there. Same reason that the Obama camp knew they had NV by Nov 1, 2012.

It would also put him 4 EV short.

>nevada
>deep red
Obama won it twice with big margins

Gookmoot went to Mexico for Dia de los Muertos.