This is my current prediction of the electoral map on November 8th

This is my current prediction of the electoral map on November 8th.

Trump needs just one state to tip it in his direction. What state do you most likely think he can take?

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=ZrqGr1Jqef8
philly.com/philly/blogs/in-transit/SEPTA-strike-begins.html
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/
scribd.com/document/327758570/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Utah-Oct-16#from_embed
huffingtonpost.com/lori-wallach/nafta-at-20-one-million-u_b_4550207.html
youtube.com/watch?v=Rw7P0RGZQxQ
youtube.com/watch?v=MpLQzeCoNnA
breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/29/bill-clinton-calls-for-rebuilding-detroit-with-syrian-refugees/
nbcnews.com/storyline/paris-terror-attacks/earlier-arab-immigrants-also-wary-syrian-refugees-n465641
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

it would have to be PA

if he wins PA, he doesn't even need NC

Or he can get Minnesota or Wisconsin. Both are heavily white, blue collar democrat states. If he wins Pennsylvania then his work is finished. But if he doesn't then he needs to win either Wisconsin or Minnesota.

NH maybe?
New poll has him pretty close.

I've also seen one out of Michigan that was narrowing.

MI or PA

Most recent poll, he's only behind 1 point in Colorado, that's well withing margin of error. THAT'S his best bet.

The state of your mothers virginity

...

...

this, don't even need NH and all this is what the new polls show

Virginia?

idk man, but if you see Trump winning Virginia on the 8th, it'll be over

Michi.

He's losing Nevada

trump tower stream in 20 minutes

youtube.com/watch?v=ZrqGr1Jqef8

If he lost CO then it would be tied.

Trump's going to take MI, PA, WI, and VA.

then we will have McMuffin as prez

I've been saying for weeks that New Hampshire is absolutely critical

You have to win delegates to be considered if it goes to the House.

Out of the last 4 polls, 3 of them show Trump up between 1 and 4 points.

I will say, however, I don't think he's going to win Colorado.

This race is going to come down to New Hampshire.

He needs New Hampshire

PRAISE BE WITH KEK

So if he loses NH I can go to bed on Tuesday?

>Just a joke, I want to see the riots

If you trade PA for NC he would lose by one vote.

How badly did Republicans underfund your high school, user?

Pa

You kids are so fucking funny. It's Reagan vs Carter all over again. It's all good.

Hillary doesn't have a chance in hell of winning, let alone escaping prison.

???

he would net 5 from this map, putting him at 271

On New Hampshire:

538 has Clinton 72% - Trump 27% of winning.

Of the last 10 Polls, only 1 show Trump up (by +1). The average for the rest vary between 4 or 5 points.

No polls have completely been conducted after Hillary's email case has returned to public attention, but out of those who have partially taken place after, they all have Clinton up at the following levels (after 538 adjustments):

UNH: +5
ESA/POP: +4
SurveyMonkey: +12
Praecones Analytica: +1

In conclusion, if New Hampshire is the tipping state, it is still a tough battle for Trump.

Nevada is going blue. About 2/3 of the state votes early, so that would give Clinton an insurmountable lead.

Also, Utah is going to McMullin.

Trump needs Pennsylvania to have any hope of winning the presidency and latest polling has him down there by double digits.

If McMuffin spoils this for us, we riot.

libshit confirmed for retard

Why do you hate democracy?

Any anons here from Virginia?

Don't let us down, fuckers.

utah is going to fuck you guys HAHAHAHAHA

Trump is going to WIN PENNSYLVANIA. If the local transport strike doesn't end in a week, they're going to have BIG TIME problems getting people to polling sites in Philadelphia.

>The possibility of a strike stretching to Election Day has prompted concern from Hillary Clinton's campaign, said Brady during a visit shortly after 7 p.m. to the Sheraton at 17th and Race streets, where negotiations were held.

>"Hillary Clinton's guy, Corey Dukes (director of the candidate's Pennsylvania campaign), had a little concern," Brady said.

>The Philadelphia Board of Commissioners, which oversees elections in the city, said in 2009 a TWU strike overlapped with an election and didn't hurt turnout, but that was not an election where a president was being chosen.

>"It's gonna hurt," Brady said on the possibility of the strike extending to Election Day. "It'll hurt."

philly.com/philly/blogs/in-transit/SEPTA-strike-begins.html

this fucker is right. don't riot just because you don't like the outcome of a vote, that's remain-tier cuck behavior.

Anybody see the latest NC poll? Post email scandal with huge swing Trump +7. All the swing states are going red this year.

PA might be a lot closer than people think. The biggest, most recent poll with the smallest margin of error has Trump down just 2. If he can flip PA he can afford to lose a few other states.

Also, if McMulffin takes Utah and Trump still wins that'd be hilarious

Dubs. And yes, New Hapshire must live free or die. They will more than likely go for Trump.

Smallest Margin: CO
Silent Majority: MI, WI, MN, PA
Also Possible: NH + ME2, VA
Stealth Mode: NM

Trump is up double digits in Utah. McMullin is a meme candidate.

He won't get Minnesota. Too many yuppie leftist scum and Somalis in the cities here. I've actually seen unironic Hillary signs and bumper stickers.

Wisconsin, though, I think will be likely to go Trump.

NH, MI, WI, or CO could flip in the next 24 hours.

If you look at the popular numbers, even VA and PA could flip if everyone voting Johnson went Trump. Clinton just needs one more scandal. It needs to drop by Thursday, I think.

Check em

Continuing...

On Pennsylvania, Trump's chances look a bit worse.

538 has 79% to 21% in Clinton's favor. No poll shows Trump up (though he is slightly gaining). The average is easily in the +6, +7 for Clinton.

A note on Utah -- if it truly goes to McMullin, the race doesn't actually change that much based on my OPs map. Trump can still win with PA (however unlikely), and a New Hampshire win will take it to the House, which Republicans control, still making Trump president.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/

No he's not. Stop lying.

>democrats in charge of doing math
point and laugh everyone

Mi and wi both flip. Remember the MI dem. primary user ? No one will vote SHILL

scribd.com/document/327758570/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Utah-Oct-16#from_embed

>Trusting Nate Sodium

KYS

PA hasn't gone GOP since 1988 - don't bet on it.

People keep saying PA but I think CO is more likely.

CO is not flipping red, it's a pretty liberal state
something in the midwest would be much more likely to flip, though still not very

Michigan is going red this year.

RCP polling congregate has similar results.

College educated whites are the group that will react to the new FBI probe most negatively, and CO is full of them.

cant trust that nate silver percentage bullshit

its all colorado.

that's what it will come down to. NH is not important.

The God Emperor of All Mankind is going to ironically turn our most commie state red and Make California Great Again.

Ultra stealth Johnson takes NM electoral tie

He doesn't even need Johnson. Very few polls have been taken there.

272 is a very anus-clenching margin of victory, Clinton would have a tough time selling to the American people that she has anything approaching a mandate.

But while its a very narrow victory, its darn near an assured victory. Any of those 272 EVs are going to be exceedingly hard to flip without a complete and total campaign collapse for Hillary, at which point it'd be a Trump landslide. In other words, the odds of Trump winning by 400 EVs is higher than him winning by 300.

But Hillary is almost guaranteed to win with 272 or more. The EC shows no clear path for a Trump victory and its hugely telling that the GOP can carry states like OH and FL and still lose national elections.

I'm sorry gang, that map *is* the likely result you'll see when waking up next wednesday morn.

NH, PA, MI and CO are going red.

PA fag here. My entire family and I will be out voting for Trump. We hope to try and swing the state into his favor.

I wouldn't be so sure.

If Colorado, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania don't flip within the next 2-3 days, however, then I don't think they'll flip at all.

He's within the margin of error against Hillary in a number of states. Wouldn't be surprised to see him pick one of them up on top of the 266.

Also, you're not part of the gang.

Wisconsin
Michigan
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Virginia

>I have a crystal ball

Clinton is up in Michigan, even according a poll (+7) done after her email scandal reappeared to the public.

new mexico, new hampshire, colorado , pa

in that order

What happens if trump endorses weed? does that win him colorado?

I'm not convinced PA will go red.

VA reporting in. And the state is a solid blue lock this year.

Do you people keep forgetting that Hillary's VP choice is from Virginia? Love him or hate him, simple name recognition always drives a candidate up double-digits when a native is on the ticket. Clinton is averaging +9 in the state and both campaigns withdrew from the state weeks ago as a waste of resources, its in the bag for Hillary. Sorry, we can't help you.

HOLY FUCKING SHIT THAT PICTURE

Trump is leading in early voting though. Polls don't mean shit.

NH, WI or CO

Colorado, it's looking pretty good for him over here.

ahahahahahah


is this your first day?

pa fag here,let's do it.I hate shillary supporters in my college.

Vote extra Trump for me!

I am in WA so my vote doesn't really count.

Why isn't Michigan voting for Trump? They are the ones hurt by jobs going offshore the most.

colorado means reddish, trump is winning it

I think Michigan is the slight favorite.

Based on volume of voters for primaries +200k or more. Michigan went HARD for Bernie. Clinton doesn't have the support of most young kids or college goers.

Mi votes republican when in non-presidential election year.

Without a democratic candidate or major ballot issues this year Trump will have more motivated voters and with the Bernouts saying never hillary it is enough to win Mi.

Detroit, nigga

who is that pizza owner on the left with the accent? i like his style but i sense some shyness

Why are niggas so stupid? Don't they want jobs? Don't they look to the city that impressed Stalin and Hitler? It set the standard for mass production worldwide, and what they rather live in a literal jungle?

Michigan, this entire campaign is tailored for the working class Individuals who have been crushed.

New Hampshire.
We can all go to bed early if this state turns up red on election night.

High prob. CO, NH

Mid prob. PA, WI,

IT'S AN AWWOOMENT prob. NM, MI, ME, MN

Without resorting to "niggers are dumber than chimpanzees", I think their culture is to blame. All they see are rappers and drug dealers in their tv shows and music. If any of them succeed in school they are ostracized in the black community from a very young age.

I read somewhere about a study that was done to WW2 babies born to German single moms from American troops, and after 12 years or so they tested the kids and their IQs were nearly equal. There was no nigger culture in Germany at the time so they just acted like regular people, and not some cartoonish caricature.

And miss the live tweets of our favorite leftists saying "literally shaking"?

I think not shill.

He will win Michigan and it's over.

TRUMP WILL WIN CALIFORNIA

MARK MY FUCKING WORDS IT IS GOING TO BE A BLOOD BATH. SCREEN CAP THIS.

I have a feeling it will be NH

Trump has his finger on the pulse of some of the issues there; drug problems and gun rights

Also I just remembered NH was strongly anti-Hillary in the Dem primary. Sanders +22

Trump winning Commiefornia

African American Gentleman, desist.

CALIFORNIA IS GOING RED

in all seriousness, this will be the final insult to hillary clinton. before prison, she will get to see california turning RED.

The real predictor is turnout, friends

1) memes aside, non-college educated whites are trump's bedrock. would not surprise me at all to see many of these folks who rarely (if ever) come out for trump on election day
2) a slight majority among college educated whites is also key. based on polling he is about even if not ahead, and that is reflected in the map
3) it has already been documented that blacks don't care for HRC like obama. 9 out of 10 will easily go to her, but even huff po is worrying about their potential turnout.
4) gave a slight boost to hispanic turnout in this image, but no surprise, this is the achilles heel of the trump campaign. if their turnout is even a silver higher than what I have it set to here, there goes florida, and the trump presidency.
5) another slight dem boost in turnout and split among asians and everyone else.

All this gets trump to a comfy 284 electoral votes, plus the lib butthurt of him not winning the popular vote

248 here

Ive been saying it for weeks. President Trump will take Michigan, guaranteed.

Most people think the Unions are bought and paid for by the Democratic party. I think on the surface, the at top national level , maybe . The Rank and file workers, their families, and close friends will be voting Republican this year.

People that were long time Democrats watched as the heyday of Bill Clinton came and gone. In its aftermath almost 1,000,000 jobs lost.

huffingtonpost.com/lori-wallach/nafta-at-20-one-million-u_b_4550207.html

Smart Democrats will not make that mistake again. The TPP, TTIP, & TISA will only further degrade our standard of living. These Bills are NAFTA x 100.

youtube.com/watch?v=Rw7P0RGZQxQ

We will not let Ms Gold Standard screw us again.

youtube.com/watch?v=MpLQzeCoNnA


Addi tonally the Bernouts will play a huge factor in Michigan. The polls leading up to the primary had Clinton winning 99%, only to have Bernie squeak by a Win. The DNC colluded to steal the nomination from Bernie. This did not sit well with his supporters. Hillary is anti pot and pro wall street, these sanders supporters want revenge and they wont be voting Clinton, that's for sure.

Some people also like to bring up the large Arab population here as if that is going to be her saving grace. Unfortunately most old school middle eastern immigrants are leery of a Clinton presidency. They know that with a Clinton in office the area will be flooded with unvetted Syrians.

breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/29/bill-clinton-calls-for-rebuilding-detroit-with-syrian-refugees/

A large majority of the Arabs in the area are Christian but no so for these Syrians. The old hat immigrants know that a flood of "Syrians" will erode their reputation in the area. Something a lot of them work hard for.

nbcnews.com/storyline/paris-terror-attacks/earlier-arab-immigrants-also-wary-syrian-refugees-n465641