Oh nooo, that sucks

A model that has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since Ronald Reagan in 1980 is forecasting a big victory for Hillary Clinton.

money.cnn.com/2016/11/01/news/economy/hillary-clinton-win-forecast-moodys-analytics/

Other urls found in this thread:

primarymodel.com/
realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/23/election_forecasting_guru_allan_lichtman_predicts_donald_trump_will_win_2016_election.html
insider.foxnews.com/2016/10/22/trump-will-win-election-professor-long-track-record-predicts
twitter.com/AnonBabble

Trumpfags #btfo

Can't wait for the mass suicides on the 8th

Everyone other one has Trump winning big. We will see..
>CNN

>A model that has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since Ronald Reagan


What's her name?

>money.cnn.com

(((Cnn)))

SAY ITTTTTTTTTTT

>CNN

Nice bait.

I guess they want to lose their credibility.

Into the garbage their analysis goes, they are going to have red ears on november 8th.

Not CNN

Moodys - A model that has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since Ronald Reagan in 1980

But this election is very different from previous ones, breaking many of the rules as many experts have been saying for months.

What leads you to believe it's still valid? What does it measure? Can we look at this analysis tool ourselves? What reason do we have to believe that it won't be wrong this time?

Accuse of trying to rationalize something away all you like, but these are completely valid questions.

>predicts Florida going blue

The methodology itself might not be bad, but it's completely discredited for 2016.

OP really... posting anything (((CNN))) at this point is just embarrassing. You should be embarrassed.

top kek

This model accurately predicts every election since 1912:
primarymodel.com/

And it has 87-99% chance of Trump winning.

>Ohio and Florida blue

Even beyond that point, the key points that that model uses are completely fucked and get thrown out the window this election.

>Obama's favorability

Obama is only popular with kids who aren't old enough to vote and the crowd that doesn't and won't vote.
He's literally popular because he's a meme. A literal fucking meme.
He's also being judged on favorability as an actual person as opposed to a president. As a president he's going to end up being written down 20 years from now as one of the worst presidents in modern time.

>cheap gas

Funny, considering Hillary is running on a "green" platform and would actually spike gas prices, while Trump is running on a "fuck making any promises to hard switch to renewable, we'll do whatever the fuck we need to" platform which would likely lower prices further thanks to local supply.

>real home price growth

Is this relative to before Obama was in office, or after the housing market crash that occurred while he was in office?
Because that's an important distinction.

>Two-year change in real household income

Yeah, tell that to anyone not in the tech field and see what they think about that.


The model may have worked wonders and was accurate before, but literally all of its bases have been thrown out the fucking window in this cycle.

This is a track record that gets my attention. Not a meager 36 years.

Devil's advocate, wasn't 1980 the last totally left-field unexpected election?

Almost true. It was wrong in 1960. Still lookin' good for Trump!

>since the last unexpected president
Cool story bro

If I flip a coint 5 times in a row, and they are all heads, and I claim that the next one is a head, would you believe me?

Yes, as there is a less than 4 percent chance of that happening by random chance. Setting my p-value equal to 0.05, I must reject the null that your coin is random.

You deserve to die for shilling, CTR.

Trump is winning in all states. He will win the popular vote 80-20%, guarenteed. You're losing, just give up and die.

An ancient machine built by the Atlantians, based on the Antikythera Mechanism, has predicted Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election with 110% of the vote. This machine has never been wrong about any question anyone has ever asked it. A second machine built to correct the first machine, made out of metal forged from the same meteorite as the stone in the Kaaba, has found no error in the judgement of the first machine. We WILL have a HillDawg presidency in 2017 yass queen machine finklestein green bean ovaltine.

Does anyone ever keep a list of these things that are fucking wrong? I distinctly remember some liberalfag in high school spouting that John Kerry was going to beat GWB because Weekly Reader polls had never been wrong in history and they predicted Kerry would win. There has to be an enormous list somewhere of these fucking bullshit Groundhog Day wunderkins that can supposedly predict elections.

Kkeeeeeeeeeeeeeeejkkkkkkkk

Each flip is an independent event you fucking ass

Sage that which slides.

Noooooo

I was under the impression that Reagan won that one pretty summarily, but anyone who knows more please correct me if that isn't the case.

...why couldn't they predict the dogshit tranches they rated AAA? Fuck off faggot no performance bonuses for you CTR scum.

actually yes.

Statistically if the coin was heads even twice (not sure about once) in a row, chances are it will be heads.

>i love stats.

kek

It was close and reagan was behind in the weeks leading up to the election.

HIs reelection though he unquestionably won by a large margin

>CNN

into the trash it goes

(((predictions))) are such bullshit, it's all a huge bunch of hoodoo at this point. especially since trump's rise has completely defied fucking everything.

i can practically hear nate styrofoam balding harder.

>primarymodel.com/
Fake and gay
Clinton will clutch a week from now
Just you watch Drumpfags

>breaking news: yet another thing we pulled out of our ass has once more made a statitistic out of the mundane behaviour of you filthy gentiles, and you better fucking abide by it on the 8th

>Get 5 rigged coinflips right
That's not even impressive.

Kek

realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/23/election_forecasting_guru_allan_lichtman_predicts_donald_trump_will_win_2016_election.html

HM, alright.

Still, both elections being close near voting doesn't mean that they're similar. As I've said, this election has been unconventional to the point that I wouldn't take any model's predictions seriously, whoever they predicted winning.

Again, I'm skeptical on this. Even the shill media was constantly pointing out the discrepancy between the Rep and Dem primaries, is looking at Trump's victory versus Hillary's even useful? I see the point in the model generally, and I do think it'll end up being right, but I'm not sure that it should reassure anyone if you're less certain about how things'll go on the eighth.

>predicted Dubya would win in 2000
But he lost...

only one way to avoid your trial ctr

ebin

Whatever CNN lol.

insider.foxnews.com/2016/10/22/trump-will-win-election-professor-long-track-record-predicts

>behaviour
They didn't want you, it's time to move on.

Wow, it's been right since the last time a populist won.

>OP has zero fucking response

OP confirmed retarted shill grasping at straws