Nate Silverstein just gave Nevada to Trump

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projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/#now
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th-thanks Nate

Doesn't matter in the slightest, Drumpf has no chance

Nate's model doesn't account for early voting. He's admitted as much.

Disgusts me that Nevada is a red state, we aren't as conservative as Texas, but it will be the same formula that poisons Nevada that poisons Texas.

f
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>t. ctr nerd virgin

>nate pewter]
>constantly update your predictions
how long until he tries to play this all off as a growing swing of support to trump that no one could have forseen?

this kike is unreal.

...

>polls mean nothing
>unless trump is ahead in them

actual Sup Forums logic

Doesn't change much though. He still needs to win Colorado, pennsylvania, or new Hampshire to win.

When the people behind the poll make it clear which candidate they favor, yeah. Nate Silver's not going to tip the poll in favor of Trump unless he has to.

>nate is a kike
>when he gives Trump a 30% chance to win when all analysts have him at 1-10%

Reminder that this is Nate Silver's actual non-tracking prediction.

Nate should just admit he's a rookie at this stuff that got lucky 4 years ago

wasn't even first you mongoloid.

The day Mississippi goes blue is the day that I boil my clothes to a soft pulp and eat them.

>6 electoral votes.

he's welcome.

Las Vegas resident, can confirm this. The only people dumb enough to vote for Hillary are the retarded liberals involved in academia. Otherwise most of the population here are pro-Trump, or at the very least anti-Hillary.

Don't even get me started on Reno or rural Nevada, I can guarantee little to none of those counties will go blue.

Can someone explain to me why they don't just count all the individual votes and go by that? Why is there the whole points from states system in play, which makes it so the candidate with less votes can still win?

>SD going blue
>MFW

Yes, this man is going to vote for Hillary. Sure m8.

Because the US was originally a union of separate countries (states) which is why they did this so that they were all important.

Polling this year is so blatantly pro-democrat they don't even try to hide it. So yes, when Trump is ahead, it means something different than when he's down 12 points.

he said it, the absolute madman

Republicans will have lower chances to win if they went by popular vote.

the US is a republic

>Heh, he'll never be nominated
>Heh, he'll never be elected
>Heh, he'll never win the second election
>Heh, he'll never be declared god-emperor
>Heh, he'll never be given the immortality vaccine
>Heh, he'll never ascend to a higher plane of existence
The left is really this deluded.

have we started the fire?

Is that how they do it in the EU?

why are you lying to me op?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/

A jew is a jew is a jew.

When did you realize polls are useless because they don't predict the future but predict the now?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/#now

Look at now-cast.

didn't know this existed, thanks

Why is nate silver thought of so highly.

Is it because he's the equivalent of that guy that sends out 50,000 emails predicting different teams will win the SB at the start of the playoffs.

Then as each team loses he only replies to those people who got the e-mails with the teams that won. until he gets down to just 2 teams, and a handful of people who actually think he can predict the future, so they give him loads of money

to protect small states from big states

because he predicted the 2012 election very well. it's the same reason why RCP is so highly respected

you're advanced

this scares me because it looks pretty fucking accurate for the most part including splitting maine

If you win California 90% to 10% because you promised them some goodies, it would basically be 1 state controlling everything.

It doesn't help much, but the electoral college does help give smaller states a voice.

This is why I don't care at all about national polls. They mean nothing. You have to look at the info state by state

California going red next.

Get some testosterone, you cuck.

on a related note, we need more of that fucking state splitting, pisses me off that two big cities in my state make my whole state look like shit

>What is Michigan?
>What is Wisconsin?
>Implying he won't win both.

Both states had more Republican primary voters than Democrat primary voters this year, a strong indication that they will go Republican. Not to mention, both WI and MI voted Bernie in the primary, giving Hillary a distinct disadvantage, considering the anger of the progressives with Hillary.

How many people have programs and whatnot predicting elections though.

Just like the scenario I said, there are bound to be some of them that just happened to correctly predict a great number of them in a row.

Their methodology might be totally shit, but just by chance they got a bunch of elections correct in a row.

The U.S. Is really big.
Do you know why France has had 6 governments in the time we have had one? Because Paris is always more liberal then the rest of her country.
Just counting every vote would make CA And New York decide every election, and once the Feds realize that, they will fuck over the rest of the states, leading to a break up of the Union over time.
In other words compermise is better then pleb rule. And CA and New York does have more influence /votes because of their population, but it's capped. Compromise.

it's actually a good sign m8. trump has been on the rise steadily, now according to nowcast he only needs to flip one more state.

this is what it looked like September 15th. then on september 26th, trump was predicted as winning at 55%. then the trump tape made him plummet

he is very very close and just needs a little push and no scandals on his side

>Texas going Blue

yeah, but the media always has some "guru" to point to from previous elections. they mostly get it wrong the second time around.

Who cares?

have an upvote kind stranger!

Hispanics are dumb and hate trump.
This
>Hispanics are untapped GOP voters
Meme needs to die, maybe the Mexicans but most of them are from center all and South America and are strong communists that think the government should take care of them and their 6 kids all on welfare.

>33% chance of a Trump win according to the same source
>no chance

INCREASINGLY NERVOUS SHILL DETECTED

I just read California voted for Hillary over Obama. How cucked is that?

He still losing Colorado, she will still win. Drumpf will never recover

He will just say Trump has a chance, so if he does win he can continue to keep his track record.

people who follow the election i guess

>Both states had more Republican primary voters than Democrat primary voters this year, a strong indication that they will go Republican.

Assuming all the Kasich and Jeb cucks vote for trump,which is unlikely

...

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

NATE'S ENTIRE WORLD IS CRASHING DOWN

>Clinton had nearly 2.1 million California votes to nearly 1.6 million for Bernie Sanders Friday evening. In the Republican primary, Trump edged toward 1.3 million votes, or 75 percent.

This is for the primaries. If enough former Berners vote Trump we could go red.

Center all=central American

the only scenario in which nevada matters is if trump sneaks in a victory in NH and also secures ME2, which would give him 270 EXACTLY.

I've only seen Sup Forums and others call out polls as bullshit when the polling demographics and parties are skewed.

I still don't hear much about independents in any segment, from polls to early voting.

Trump can't win because even if he does, I'll never recognize him as president and I'm moving to Canada.

>caring about Nate Carboard
at this point Nate Toilet Paper should just flagellate himself as penance

If this is actually on his website then I really question why anyone gives a single shit about what this clown has to say

see you later

Telling them what they want to hear. Liberals love that. This is what it currently is.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

It's a "what would happen if Clinton lead by 12% nationally" map

(((Silverstein)))

This post-objectivist narrative about Trump ascending to the level of pure Being is the best thing to come out of this election, whether or not it's true.

You'll be missed

Stop being so delusional.

California will 100% be blue.

If you think Bernie supporters are going to vote for a Republican I've got a bridge to sell you

Will he push the probability to 99% before the last votes are announced and say "my system is the best!" Or is he gonna handle his defeat and the defeat of his system like a man?

Nevada-chan for Trump!

Sorry bud, You'll have to wait in the cuckshed we call "Toronto". Ahmed's gonna take good care of you.

Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll. Just put it in toss-up territory and move on. Still need to break the blue firewall of PA, NH, MI, WI, CO. Right now those are all looking to go for Clinton.

11.5% in delaware, 9.1% in Oregon

Is it happening?

>Clinton pulling ahead.
Silverstein is a shill, who sold off any ounce of credibility he had
>Clinton falling behind.
Haha Libtards, even your statistical god thinks Hillary will lose!

I like how nobody responded to your troll comment.

According to these fags, this is the path that would likely lead to a win for Trump.

Toronto does seem like a weird fucking place. I already voted for Trump tho.

They're statistically irrelevant, particularly the Kasich crowd, who voted for him purely because it's a mark of pride to have your guy win your state in the primaries.

That rant in the pic seemed rather pointless.

You didn't know? California loves the Clinton's.

Trump has 25% of Hispanic Vote, I think.

And Texas also has excellent voter ID Laws.

There's a reason why it's a Republican Stronghold (except for Austin).

>Pollsters realizing that they will lose all credibility if Hillay doens't fix the election

Shitty but zesty

my body is ready

Many people who turned up for Bernie weren't even liberal. Many were just independents who were anti establishment. There were many, many Berners who went to Trump, though not enough that he will win Cali.

nate carbon trying to get that promotion to nate tin but we're well aware he has been ramping up his odds for Trump to win the last few days to save face when he gets BTFO

They are determined to be the worst state in the union.

So terrible that when they migrate from their shithole they created, they poison the red states around them.

Suddenly, Sup Forums loves Silver even though he has literally only been reporting what the data says this whole time.

NOW THIS IS MOMENTUM

Bye. No one will miss you here.

We think he's a backpeddling joke that is trying to redeem from an entire year of being fantastically wrong, from Trump to Bernie losing Michigan to the fucking Cubs.

>literally
opinion discarded. no one here likes him

Thats because more people vote on election day,

I don't think they love him any more than they did last week. They're just remarking that even (((he))) is uncucking his polls.

The actual answer is history.

The USA is big, so big that at it's creation it was nearly impossible to communicate the happenings of the day to voters, (small as it was at the time)

So each state would hold an election to appoint people to go and be at the capital to go and hear all the debates and so on then as the representatives of the population vote for them.

So that's the Electoral College.

Once communicate tech improved to the point of near instant communication across the nation the EC had no reason to keep existing. But it was traditional at that point so it was kept around.

Further one a few says said holy shit winner takes all is stupendously undemocratic we will apportion our votes based on the nearest relation to our popular vote.

States that are strongly one part or the other were in control of the state and saw that as giving away their votes needlessly. States that were split would see that as giving away their value (read bribes from the federal government).

So the USA has one of the most retarded systems in place.

>the US is a republic
Correct their is no King of the USA. (hint republic doesn't mean collection of states).

>to protect small states from big states
Yes because Texas has the same value and should be treated as an equal to Vermont. And it totally doesn't favor East Coast states that were subdivided while punishing larger western states. Just think if California was divided into states the population of Wyoming and each state given two senators.

>It doesn't help much, but the electoral college does help give smaller states a voice.
The only states it gives a voice to are ones large enough to matter and divided enough to go either way in an election. Everyone else big or small gets fucked.