MAGA HYPE

Nate admits defeat, one more state and Trump wins.

Other urls found in this thread:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/
twitter.com/AnonBabble

This looks old. It was pivoting on Colorado at the start of October.

Go check that shit, screenshotted in the last five minutes.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Here ya go you lazy fuck, hope you voted by mail.

Confirmed. Odd that Nate is giving him only a 33% chance, then. I distinctly remember it being close to 50-50 for the same snake chart back in early October, and the strength of Trump's current surge is far stronger.

Hillary will still win, I'm predicting.

and he won't be able to flip a single on of those states

if anything he'll lose one of the weak red ones

I think it's because Hillary's states are much more "locked in" than Trump's. This is gonna be a close one, so be sure to vote, especially if you're in a swing state

fucking maryland right there >:(

I feel exactly the same. Honestly just think Nate still trying to be relevant and suppress Trump, but the media has ben flipping very rapidly. Let's do this.

I was going to ask if you were dropped on your head, but then realized that you're even worse than a leaf. I can't wait until Sup Forums is censored in your country.

Purge black voter rolls and Trump wins

Good luck Trump.

Not that you'll need it.

I was already on this page and this is how it currently looks according to those fags.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

OP is using the Nowcast, while you're looking at the polls-only version. The Nowcast is far more aggressive in weighting newer polls, which might work well for horse-race analysis leading up to the election about a month out or so, but might not be as sensible when early-voting's already happened.

Holy fuck it's real. It only displays it in the #now url though. The main one does not update.

Compare:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Literally copy paste the link from earlier retard. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

The other two weight the results according to Nate's shenanigans, the now cast is what you want.

Why are we giving nate silver credit at all? Because he's on TV? Who cares? What qualifies him as accurate?

Many forecasters are calling a Trump win. Stop worrying about Nate Silver who is clearly a shill for hillary

Oh well that explains it. Shills BTFO

>DC is all the way to the left
Why did we give them electoral votes again?

Nate Plastic was bitching earlier about states like Colorado not being polled enough. His model fails if there aren't up to date polls.

I'm not, I'm pointing out that someone this cucked and bought can't even pretend that Hillary is way ahead anymore.

ameritard democracy is now some sort of snakes and ladders game

i dont even understand what the fuck im looking at

Notice it still says 65.4% chance of winning for Hillary? Is that all coming down to Colorado?

Sad thing is how slow they are updating it with new polls.

>bUM

>Texas
>red

I don't think Nate's methodology is available, but clearly it's off when all we need to flip is that (Or any other state) and the odds are still so low.

Is he just averaging the polls that oversample democrats anyway though?

Nate's projections are probabilistic. Each state's chances of going for one candidate or the other are loosely correlated, but treated by the analysis as individual "rolls".

The snake chart sorts the current map by the probabilities and margins of the two candidates. It doesn't automatically mean Colorado -will- be the tipping point state, just that, at present, it's the one in the middle.

Yes, he is. Landslide incoming.

Probably. He weights all the polls after the fact with a cryptic set of algorithms. He's just as fraudulent as any single poll.

How are so many states redder than me?

Oh, because it's "Trump" margins, not Republican margins. We probably would have voted for Cruz if he hadn't already dropped out by the time we voted in the primaries.

Yeah, the states on the Hillary side are pretty much locked in. NC, FL, and NV are complete toss ups and could go either way.

Right. That's why I like the snake chart.

I expect this is the case. California pisses me off with the 55 electoral votes.

Nate brings in a huge number of polls, including ones which are allegedly biased in favour of Trump. The polls are then weighted slightly, based on previously-observed house effects (and yes, he does sometimes shave a point off of Clinton's lead with certain polls in this weighting). But the model doesn't just look at weighting, it also looks at trendlines (regardless of what the poll's usual bias might be).

Part of the huge crash in recent days in the model is attributable to the ABC poll, which is rated and weighted highly by the model and which collapsed 12 points.

Why is Florida not red? To many webacks?

Hispanics and liberal northern imports living in the southern end of the state. Florida is like two states in one - a California-like state in the south and an Alabama-like state in the north.

I wonder how many it would lose if the illegals were deported.

Florida has had record beaner turnout in early voting. +90% turnout

Liberals are like a disease. Flordia and California fags are flooding Texas now.

1. This is the Nowcast, not the Polls Plus, which has Nevada light blue, or the polls only, which is even more favorable for Clinton.

2. FL and NC are incredibly close. CO/NH/MI/PA really aren't.

3. EV numbers show that Clinton has basically won NV already.

4. EV numbers are horrible for Trump in FL and NC.

This isn't even close. Silver's model is far too bullish on Trump.

Doubtful, Cubans tend to support Republicans

>3. EV numbers show that Clinton has basically won NV already.


LOL

doesnt it suck that you wont have a job in 5 days leaf cuck?

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/

Nate Cyanide is a big fan of (((WEIGHTING POLLS)))

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