Let's see if we can find a REALISTIC scenario where Trump wins.
In this map, I've used different color codes. >Red States Trump will win. I have taken Georgia, Utah, Ohio, and Arizona off the swing column and given them to Trump. >Blue States Hillary will win. Yes, New York, Oregon, and RI are out of play. >Grey These are the true swing states. They are simply too close to call and could go either way. TRUMP NEEDS TO WIN EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM! NC and Florida are hella fucking close and the news coming out of the Florida early voting doesn't sound good. It should be also noted that Maine's second district is no longer a safe lock for Trump. >Yellow This is Clinton's "firewall". States she has a high probability to win and probably will, but there's a chance at an upset. TRUMP NEEDS TO FLIP ONE OF THESE STATES IN ADDITION TO WINNING EVERY SWING STATE TO WIN!
So there you have it. It's a steep climb, but it's theoretically possible, albeit unlikely just based on sheer probability. Note however that Trump doesn't need 270 electoral votes to win. He only needs 269.
So there's three questions. 1. Do you believe Trump will win EVERY swing state? 2. Do you believe Trump can flip one of the firewall states? 3. If yes which firewall state will he flip?
>NC and Florida are hella fucking close and the news coming out of the Florida early voting doesn't sound good.
I've heard the opposite, same for NC
Dems are banking too heavily on minorities turning out the same rate they did in 08/12
Evan Rivera
My gut feeling is that it's a long shot.
I think Trump will win Nevada and North Carolina, as well as ME CD2, but Florida I think is probably out if reach.
I honestly think this early voting really kills republicans. I expect the millennial turnout to be much higher than people expect due to the convenience of early voting.
But even if he does get Florida, I don't see a yellow state he can reasonably flip. It would have to be an upset and a half.
Christian Baker
Polling out of the University of Denver came as a tie, vs the last 7+ for Clinton. NH(though seems to be an outlier) got it's first +1 Trump today.
PA's Numbers are collapsing as well and she's had to go BACK to Michigan and re prioritize it, I assume it's a 2 point race their for her there despite heavy bias polling for her.
I think you're confusing Trump with Rubio. There will be ticket splitting on the ballots. Cubans will vote for Rubio but also Clinton
Jace Morris
No they wont. polls show him winning, he will win.
Zachary Ross
Over a 4th of early vote Republicans are voting Hillary in Florida.
Jason Roberts
>Black vote down 30-50% >Democrats turnout down substantially >Republicans and Independents up big >Hispanics split down the middle >Millenials don't like Clinton >Trump inspires people. Hillary doesn't. >Hillary pushing for WWIII >FBI reopened email investigation solidifying corruption claims What part of this points towards a "big" Clinton win?
This map might come true at this rate
Austin Myers
I think Hispanics are going to turn out more, and Blacks are going to turn out less.
This'll cost Clinton North Carolina, and might put one of the Midwestern firewall states in play, but at the same time makes Florida and Nevada extremely vulnerable.
Owen Butler
This is my guess based on individual state polls.
Ethan Stewart
trump is going to win maine user, open carry state.
Jayden Harris
>This is Clinton's "firewall". States she has a high probability to win and probably will, but there's a chance at an upset. TRUMP NEEDS TO FLIP ONE OF THESE STATES IN ADDITION TO WINNING EVERY SWING STATE TO WIN! I've seen so much weird stuff this election. This all started with laughing at the guac merchant and his warm kisses, calling him low energy. But this election took one dark turn after another. The DNC working against Bernie. Violence at rally's. Voterfraud Sexual harassment claims Hillary declaring a cartoon from a hate symbol and white nationalism. Hillary randomly blurs out military intel on live TV Hillary collapses Violence was caused by people trained by the DNC. Press giving questions to Hillary in advance. Comey letting her off the hook after he stated she broke the law and lied about it. FBI re opens investigation because of a dick pic/ Clinton might be the center of a child sex gang.
But after all of this, I still refuse to believe Utah is going blue.
Eli Powell
The higher white voter turnout offsets the slightly higher hispanic turnout.
Isaac Martin
Cubans are not the same as other Hispanics, user. They're also angry at Obama for lifting the embargo off Cuba.
Camden Edwards
It's all about turnout at this point and no way is hillary going to draw voters anywhere near obama levels. And the never trumper republicans are basically a myth the media created.
Jacob Bailey
No one likes Hillary and there's no enthusiasm for Hillary on voting day. All the enthusiasm has been with Trump. Even in the primaries Republican votes were overwhelming compared to Democrats.
Go out and vote for Trump on Nov. 8 no matter what.
Anthony Rogers
God your voting system is retarded. Why not just make the person president who gets the most overall votes instead of this convoluted bullshit?
James Reed
>1. Do you believe Trump will win EVERY swing state? I believe he has a chance. He could easily lose Florida or Nevada. >2. Do you believe Trump can flip one of the firewall states? Yes, but I wouldn't bet on any one of them. >3. If yes which firewall state will he flip? NH is the most likely to surprise.
Eli Martin
They're also pissed off at Trump for breaking the Cuba embargo while it was still active. This might depress their turnout, since they'll feel like they're picking between a giant douche and a turd sandwich on the Cuba question.
And Florida's been flooded with Puerto Ricans in recent years too, who are solidly Democratic.
Jeremiah Sullivan
fuck off you filthy nigger
Asher Phillips
Media disinfo
Carson Anderson
Your logic and EC-process is wasted on this crowd.
Don't you know that their anecdotal evidence of "all I ever see down my dirt road are more Trump signs" is all the proof they need?
Elijah Evans
Yeah how about you? I'm not about to let some brit tell me I'm wrong about my own election.
Parker Williams
OH,UT and AZ are grey states too.
Hudson Ramirez
Mainly because >muh states rights. The constitution establishes that in a presidential election, all the states get electoral power equivalent to their total number of senators and congressional representatives. The states can assign their power however they wish. Most states have chosen to assign their power by means of a winner-take-all vote on the state level.
A coalition of states is attempting to force America to adopt a popular vote system. They're forming a compact so that, once enough states join the compact that they have a majority of electoral votes, they'll pick their electors by looking at who wins the nationwide popular vote, not the state-level votes.
So long as a group of states controlling a majority of electoral votes have this system, it effectively forces a popular-vote-nationwide system for the presidency.
So far, however, not enough states have joined for the pact to activate. All the states who have approved it so far are solid blue states who feel disaffected by their lack of influence in presidential elections. The swing states aren't going to approve it, since they don't want to give up their power. So for it to become the law of the land, it'll need to work its way through the legislatures of Republican states too.
Jonathan Martin
The polls don't account for parked votes. Trump has to be secretly supported in some places. I have a feeling you can move five points in general towards trump in every poll
Tyler Williams
It was intended to prevent the dangers of demagoguery inherent in majoritarian democracy and as a check on Federal power.
But as you can see, in the present "winner take all" electoral system, it doesn't make a difference.
Noah Collins
The polls showing Clinton 3-7 points ahead in Michigan assume black turnout identical to 2008/2012 (so higher than white turnout). I can see a surprise upset there.
Jose Miller
>17 people kek
Adam Peterson
...
Henry Hughes
You think it's likely?
I want to believe.
Gabriel Nelson
This is what I've been saying, the electoral college is obsolete at this point. We have the fucking internet. Popular vote decisions are a plausible thing now.
Dominic Miller
According to what? One poll?
Dominic Brown
They were plausible back then. The logistics of vote-counting is not why it was done the way it was done.
It was specifically to *limit* the power of the voter from making bone-headed populist decisions, that county and state legislators would have the ability to pull their state back from the cliff.
We do not vote for the president directly. We vote for state electors who, largely, share the voter's opinion but not necessarily 1:1. If your state were to overwhelmingly vote for Vermin Supreme, the electors would likely go "nope, sorry, we're voting for a real candidate". Now there would be political hell to pay for going against the voters but they could do it, and they would do it if the voters' decision were poor enough.
Ayden Nguyen
...
Benjamin Thompson
New Hampshire and Colorado are not part of Clinton's 'firewall'
Aiden Fisher
You're incorrect.
He will win Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada.
He needs FL and either PA or VA. If he loses FL it's absolutely over. If he loses PA or VA it's 90% likely to be over.
Your only hope in that situation is the 1 in Maine and a totally shock turn like NH going for Trump or, preferably, MI since that takes him way over the finish line and there will be no fighting it.
Mason Howard
The probability of Trump losing Florida at this point is very low unless Dems have an amazing turnout on election day
Joseph King
>New Hampshire and Colorado are not part of Clinton's 'firewall' So what are you saying, Britbong? Because they're not swing states.
Zachary Gutierrez
CTR LIES framing it like this
Trump has Florida, ignore these pol malarcky posts
GO VOTE AND PUNCH A RANDOM LIBERAL ON NOV 8
Dylan Howard
these are all trolls
Xavier Edwards
Hoping there's enough cucked college students to go out and vote for her.
Zachary Baker
they're both toss ups
Jordan Fisher
Im going to enjoy it when she loses
Isaiah Jenkins
As a non-'murrican, I find it really strange that there are states where blue is certain to win by a huge margin, and states where red is certain to win again with a big lead. If by the end of the day the country is about 50-50, is it really healthy that this 50-50 is split in such contrasting way? It reminds me of ukraine situation a lot, and we all know how it all went down.
Jace Morris
According to one media poll. So reliable
Dominic Martinez
No it's not healthy, but it's beneficial to dems to keep the current system.
Robert Young
he can flip VA
Robert Cox
I would tend to agree.
Put it this way - even WITH Florida and Ohio, he still needs one more big state to put him over the edge. If VA and PA both call for Clinton his odds drop off a cliff.
if he loses Florida you can go to bed, literally nothing will save him.
Aiden Howard
Well I'll be damned
Jeremiah Green
According to the most recent polls, all swing states are almost certainly voting for trump.
As for the firewall, trump is leading in NH, VA and even with hillary in CO
Anthony Diaz
babby's first representative election
Jaxon Hughes
Who /OnTheWall/ here?
Parker Young
FUCK OFF LYING SHILL JEW FAGGOT
Ethan Cox
ALL THESE "HEY FELLOW BASED GUYS LET'S BE REAL FOR MOMENT" THREADS SMELL LIKE A JEW'S TAINT
>Trump just bumped up to 35.5% chance in the last 30 minutes
Levi Torres
The federal government is powerful but lots of power still resides at the state or local level. This allows people with different outlooks on life and different ideologies to live in areas that best suit them. A natural consequence of that is some areas are very conservative while others are very liberal. The liberals want to give the federal government more power. At best they want this because they think it is a way to get everyone to hold hands, get along and sing songs together. At worst they see having power concentrated in one government as a way to force everyone into their way of living. Conservatives generally want power distributed as wide as possible. At best this is so power can be closest to the people as possible. At worst it comes from a desire to create fiefdoms that can hold power over locals without any way for those under their control to gain freedom or enact change.
In the end it's a messy balance that is always in danger of falling apart or escalating into civil disturbances. Missouri is often claimed to be the average of the nation as a whole. It's no wonder that it is where so much of the recent unrest has occurred.
Luis Jones
Trump people: TRUMP WILL WIN
Hillary people: HILLARY WIN WIN
Cooper Russell
Needs Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida. I'd put my $$ on him taking at least North Carolina out of those three, but the odds are two damn short. >>let's be serious for a minute, how confident are you fellas of a Trump Presidency? >>God Damn, wouldn't it be a thing of beauty...
Cooper Perry
This is why VA, PA, or MI will flip.
VA has just enough blacks that a black dem candidate was able to push the state over the edge to blue. Blacks hate Hillary as much as they hate Trump, so they're going to stay home in droves and the state could likely edge back to being red.
PA has a surging right-leaning population around York/Harrisburg, where white flight from the Baltimore region is filling the state with working middle class folks who hate taxes, black people, and gun control laws. Trump signs are fucking everywhere up there. This, along with the SEPTA strike fermenting anti-dem sentiment in Philly while keeping blacks from the polls, could very well tip the state red in terms of voter turnout.
As for MI? The fact that the census is taken every 10 years will fuck the dems hard in terms of turnout expectations. As Detroit becomes more of a shithole, more blacks are getting our of dodge, Katrina-style, which is probably why homicide rates in other Midwestern cities like Milwaukee, Chicago, Cleveland, and Gary have all been on the rise thanks to black transplants from MI. Meanwhile, the whites have deeper roots and have all stayed, and Trump's calling out FoMoCo on moving Focus/Escape production to Mexico is the first time any of them have ever seen a prospective president call the big three out on their outsourcing. I'd honestly give MI a 50/50 shot at flipping.
Hudson Gonzalez
it pretty much all depends on turnout this moment
the nogs need to stay home while the whites need to go out and vote
Samuel Taylor
Lol. It's not gonna fucking happen is it?
Well, it's been nice meming with you guys. See ya'll in 4 years.
Carter King
>Illinois is always blue Fuck Chicago, my dude
Though my county is one of the other two blue
Connor Butler
Hispanics aren't split down the middle. It's like 70-30 in favor of Clinton. Millenials also like Clinton twice as much as they like Trump. And unfortunately, most people don't care about the investigation. Overall, polls have remained consistent throughout the scandal.
Nolan Price
Trump person here.
HILLARY WILL WIN
Nolan Mitchell
248 here
Ive been saying it for weeks. President Trump will take Michigan, guaranteed.
Most people think the Unions are bought and paid for by the Democratic party. I think on the surface, the at top national level , maybe . The Rank and file workers, their families, and close friends will be voting Republican this year.
People that were long time Democrats watched as the heyday of Bill Clinton came and gone. In its aftermath almost 1,000,000 jobs lost.
Addi tonally the Bernouts will play a huge factor in Michigan. The polls leading up to the primary had Clinton winning 99%, only to have Bernie squeak by a Win. The DNC colluded to steal the nomination from Bernie. This did not sit well with his supporters. Hillary is anti pot and pro wall street, these sanders supporters want revenge and they wont be voting Clinton, that's for sure.
Some people also like to bring up the large Arab population here as if that is going to be her saving grace. Unfortunately most old school middle eastern immigrants are leery of a Clinton presidency. They know that with a Clinton in office the area will be flooded with unvetted Syrians.
A large majority of the Arabs in the area are Christian but no so for these Syrians. The old hat immigrants know that a flood of "Syrians" will erode their reputation in the area. Something a lot of them work hard for.
My fucking sides. How is he gonna win VA and NC? Shit even Florida looks too close to call.
Nicholas Richardson
After Hillary admits she is ineligible for public office for mishandling government documents, she will pull off and leave it to Trump vs Long Johnson vs Stoner. You know that. She knows that. She knows you know.
So stop these shitty bait strawman threads, you're wasting expensive bandwidth and making 4chins unaffordable for Hiroshimoot.
Anthony Collins
Good map, but I think it's safe to put Iowa in the red column this election cycle
Justin Cox
I believe Trump can win
Andrew Jackson
None of these idiots are right. The reason is because without the electoral college, some fascist could just pander to the highly populated cities (NYC, SF, Chicago, LA, DC etc), ignore literally everywhere else and win the presidency. People in Montana or Iowa or even Texas would be ignored forever.
Aaron Price
Here's mine.
Austin Fisher
>maximum damage control
Jack Phillips
I believe Colorado is possible, although the influx of potheads might hinder him. Lets hope they are too stoned to vote Hillary
Xavier Thomas
Utah is never, ever going blue. It's a distinct possibility, or even likelihood, that Clinton ends up third behind Trump and that third party weirdo.
Joseph Bennett
Is OH actually in the bag for Trump? Just wondering
Juan Jones
>NY, PA, and WI go red >NH is blue
Nigger what are you doing.
NH isn't even a democrat stronghold, it went for Bush in 2000 and 2004.
