I just wanted to let you people, who love to post this site's predictions, know, that since it was at around 8% for Trump it has been rising steadily.
I checked at almost everyday.
8%
10%
13%
17%
21%
24.8%
28.8%
30.2%
32.3%
Interpret as you want. Unless they have a video of Trump walking around in an SS Uniform quoting "Mein Kampf" this will keep rising.
Now it looks like this.
CTR, good luck
I will post this everyday until you like it
Other urls found in this thread:
fivethirtyeight.com
twitter.com
>Unless they have a video of Trump walking around in an SS Uniform quoting "Mein Kampf" this will keep rising.
Funny you mention that...
Watch the news on Monday morning
I hope you're making a decent amount of shekels for this shitposting
It actually looks like it's levelling off a bit now. Will probably stabilise at 65% or so before rising a little just before the election day.
I think Sup Forums misinterprets 538. While some of the pundits are liberal - they basically aggregate a bunch of polls and use a formula (posted in full on their website) to come up with a rough estimate. In fact - 3 weeks ago when everyone was saying trump was done, 538 was insisting it looked bad but he still had a 1/5 chance of winning, and he would probably narrow the race.
wasted
fuckin checked
>defending rigged polls
>Unless they have a video of Trump walking around in an SS Uniform quoting "Mein Kampf" this will keep rising.
Looking at trends he's certainly peaking at the right time, but how much can you expect to change in a week?
The point is the majority of the "pundits" and polls are liberal-leaning, and assigning hard "chances" to each candidate based off of these aggregates is moronic, it isn't a football game
Gay Johnson has a "chance"?
Nice RP dumbfuck but they wouldn't hold something like that until a day before the election.
This, also nice digits. Nates a dumbass/cuck but he's just formulating all the polls including obviously biased ones, therefor the outcome is obviously skewed.
Nate can't control that every pollster is damaging their reputation by skewing their polls to favor clinton, besides a few. Changing his formula mid-election too would look just as bad as his polls already do, we only pick him to clown on cause he's absolutely butt-blasted by the ideal of Trump.
He has spoken, predicting the incoming landslides. Praise KEK and the Holy 77777
Nate Silver get.
It's been "levelling off" for the past week. Then you check the next day and it's higher but levelling off. Check again tomorrow and it's higher still but again levelling off. Then the next day it's higher...
REASON IS NOT APPEAS'N THE FROG GOD
WASTED GET, ANTI-KEK
if women turnout to vote, trump will lose.
If they stay home. trump might win.
.. you know someone who pays me for calling out Nate Hydrogen?
Tell me
P. S.
No
Witnessed
I will quote a Norway user from another thread:
" literally can't understand how something as retarded as this system of "prediction" can become popular in a country. It eludes me.
The point of making a prediction is to assess the facts available at the time, and say how numbers will turn out or the chance of some event happening. The quality of your prediction is whether that seems to play out as you said.
For this type of poll, there is no failure state, no way to have a low quality poll.
>WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF A PLANE FLYING INTO THE PENTAGON? **0.01%**
>OH SHIT A PLANE IS FLYING DIRECTLY AT THE PENTAGON, I REVISE MY PROBABILITY TO **99%**
>IT HAPPENED! LOOK HOW RIGHT I WAS! MASTER PREDICTOR!
"
Why do people even care about polls?
They have said everything and its opposite. Seems more like random number generator to me...
Why do you morons even check 538.. It's meaningless.
Public betting markets are much more accurate
Electionbettingodds.com
He'll probably stop adjusting the value once he reaches the margin of error.
That way he can keep all those people who love him because he agrees with them slobbering all over his dick while still being able to pretend that he was "not completely wrong!"
It's almost like trump has a ceiling of 35%
Noice
Oh shit
Nate shills for the Hills for the exact same reason they all do: He's guilty of something.
Even looks like a pedo, desu.
this.
there's nothing "predictive" about the website, it is providing an information about what already happened with a delay.
it's not predicting shit, he's just aggregating other polls and then throwing them into some bullshit formula. for it to be a prediction he would have to talk about something that will happen in the future but he only talks about the past.
Trump will win Michigan. Even 98 years old Communist Jew cuck beat Hillary there. It will be landslide.
I was going to call you a shill but kek has blessed you with 5 repeating digits so you may actually be a prophet
Read the second half of my post. 538 three weeks ago was pretty much saying - while this election isn't looking good for trump it's going to probably narrow and it doesn't look as bad as some 99/1 pollsters are making it.
thanks guys - it's my first get on Sup Forums ever and I've been here for at least 10 years.
I mean yes technically he does doesn't he. It's ridiculously low and it wont happen but if you're trying to make a model of the election you need to include something like that. Tbh the polls are liberal leaning because Trumps pussy grabbin scandal really hurt him in the polls (even if you think it's not a big deal). It's not so much that they were liberal leaning as it is that Trump wasn't doing very well a few weeks ago.
>his model literally is following the new polls that show a tighter race
I swear to god this is the dumbest board on here and we have boards entirely dedicated to magical horses and pocket monsters.
Dude is suck a crock of shit.
Only deal in percentages and you are never wrong.
KEK blessed you with good power. Don't waste it. Praise KEK and use your power in order to help the God emperor. KEK VULT
Thank you.
Nate has repeatedly gone over the fact that Hillary has a floor, Trump has a ceiling. Whatever outliers happen the race will likely normalize as the "undecided" vote officially states what we've known all along.
Didn't quite finish my thought in this post
I think your plane into the pentagon argument isn't bad. You're right in saying that the constant readjustment of the polls might make it seem worthless but I think you're misinterpreting what 538 does. They basically give the percent chance of a candidate winning and update it everyday. It's like a snapshot of how the election is going and how the electorate is feeling in certain swing states. Do you understand? I'm a bit tired so maybe I'm not making sense.
You speak clearly to us, prophet, and we listen. Praise kek
I do understand.
So I'm asking:
What's the point of looking at the site unless it's exactly before the election?
What's the use of a number telling me who would win right now, given that it's just some estimation that changes every few hours?
good question - because it provides an interesting assessment of where everything stands and you can use it as a crystal ball to see how different things effect campaigns and where campaigns should be focusing. When you go to 538 you do it so that you can say "hmm, Arizona looks like its closer than usual - I bet Clinton is there right now in order to GOTV to spread trumps relatively bare bones GOTV effort between too many states" or to say "wow this comey thing really hurt clinton in the following states ____ which I can see because when I click on them it shows a precipitous drop in Clinton support since the FBI reopened the case - this puts states like Florida solidly in play for Trump."
Sup Forums very frequently treats 538 as Nate Silver standing on a podium and going "THIS IS HOW THE ELECTION WILL TURN OUT" and then changing it everyday. In reality it's more like Nate Silvers program saying "this is whats happening today and how you can see recent events represented in the election". I think on November 7th or early November 8th Nate Silver actually does make his solid personal prediction, but try not to get caught up in what Sup Forums believes 538 is for.
Once again - I'm tired today so tell me if I need to clarify.
No, you don't. I like that answer. Thank you.
no problem m8 have a good one