Where were you when you realized that Drumpf's rise in the polls still means that he merely has a chance and will never...

Where were you when you realized that Drumpf's rise in the polls still means that he merely has a chance and will never be the favorite?

>35%
>merely has a chance

FiveThirtyEight's projections are staggered. They take a while to catch up. They'll be closer to 40% sooner rather than later. Additionally, they're using polls assuming a turnout closer to 08/12, not taking new voters into consideration, and can't account for the Shy Tory Effect.

I'd be feeling pretty damn good if I were Trump, honestly. It's certainly not in the bag, but Clinton's campaign is currently a tire fire.

KILL ME IF YOU DARE
HOLD MY HEAD UP EVERYWHERE
KEEP MYSELF RIGHT ON THIS TRAIN

I'M THE UNDERDOG
LIVE MY LIFE ON A LULLABY
KEEP MYSELF RIGHT ON THIS TRAIN
KEEP MYSELF RIGHT ON THIS TRAIN

538 also said Trump has the same chance as the Cubs winning the Series

Well that map is wrong.

Because NH is going Trump.
Colorado's a toss up and probably going Trump.
Pennsylvania's a toss up and will go Trump when a nuke is dropped on Philadelphia.


And one should expect the unexpected from rust belt states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

Here's a 6-shot revolver with 2 live rounds in it. Let's play a little "aerate the liberal's skull" roulette.

>What are independent events

Found the utter retards, you have the expectations of a typical 12 year old.

Fuck off, Negative Nancy. I'll believe he's lost when I see it happen on election day.

I apologize. 538's track record should speak for their veracity

Virginia is the lynchpin.

>Iowa
>Blue

NC, OH, FL are pretty much already decided and NV looks to be going Trump as well.

VA, NH, ME(3), PA, MI, WI, and maybe MN are the D's firewall. They lose one, they lose the election.

I forgot to add CO to the list of firewall states.

Why would I care if he's the favourite or not

I just want him to win

>NC, OH, and FL are all bigger tossups than any of those other states you mentioned, yet you say they're "in the bag"

Iowa is going red

MI here, strong feeling we will go red

This.

>MI here, strong feeling we will go red

I live in Chicago and I do not know one person in private life or work that is voting for Hillary

Don't get your hopes up, shitcago.

Polls lag true voter response.

Averaging polls (RCP) and models (538) lag individual polls.

If the vote is close momentum becomes the deciding factor. The candidate with momentum could truly be several points up and the polls wouldn't reflect it for a few days and the poll averages wouldn't show it for a week.

>Why would I care if he's (((Nate Berkelium's))) favourite
FTFY

drove from IA to MN and out to CO saw hundreds of yuge TRUMP signs and 2 little tiny hillary signs

Trump in landslide - go vote

Correction: Dumpster Fire.

Your record has now been corrected

Even if Trump only got Romney levels of support, the black voter turnout decrease of Clinton would still kill her.

Iowa is not just red it's actually redder than Arizona at this point.

Did someone actually calculate this to be true, or are you just being hopeful?

sounds like he has a better chance than the cubs...oh wait!

Well I exaggerated a little bit but if it was Romney vs Clinton, Romney would get NC and Florida easily.

>i-it's over, D-Drumpf fags, says increasingly nervous shill for the seventh time this year

I use a simplified version of the argument for 1/3 odds actually.

I have a revolver with three chambers in the cylinder. I put a bullet in one and give it a spin, then hand you the revolver and tell you to point it at your head. Are you confident in pulling the trigger?

1/3 odds aren't small at all.

Niggers don't care about voting for an old white woman.

he will lose

>those states
>not in the bag
dems are already panicking because they realized just like everyone else blacks don't give a shit about some old white bitch. Black turnout already down 15% and white is up 15%. Election is over CTR get the rope now rather than next week.

remember when this was 2%?

It was like 13% in the polls-plus at rock bottom.

>>NH Blue

Virginia is a solid Clinton Firewall state. If NH, CO, PA, MI, and WI don't flip VA isn't going to.

If you go to turnouts of 2012 ans reduce black turnout to historical levels and raise white without college degree to being like 70 Republican and I think it was 68 turnout and make college degree whites more democrat I'm pretty sure Republicans eek out a win

He has been steadily climbing

This was the "Nowcast" model on August 8th.

No, I definitely remember 8-9% during the pussy times

that's true but he either needs to keep bringing that national polling average down OR come out big in a key state for some reason. You definitly don't want your chances of beating your opponent to essentially come down to a series of must win coin flips.

Why do you bother still shilling, CTR?