Nate Silver

In 2008 he predicted 49/50 states correctly and 4 years later he guessed all 50 states correct.

This election he said that Hilary has 67.6% of winning the White House.

Is Trump doomed?

What is your view on this guy?

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projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1
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Potassium will be in the oven soon

Our repeating digits and frog diety has broken Nate.

I will personally kill this kike

He's Nate Iron-Ore now. Kek cosmically BTFO him last night as crescendo for him being wrong about everything Trump during this whole past year.

youtube.com/watch?v=QWbS77EFjs8

Dude, are you a fucking moron?
He changes his answers on a weekly basis, using statistical analysis.
He isn't predicting, he is just using logic.
If I can't change my answer I have a 50/50 chance, if he can change his answer 50+ times, his chance goes up each time.

MFW it happened and they won the game TRUMP victory confirmed

in 2016 he incorrectly predicted the Republican primary

How does this kike generate income?

2016 election was NOTHING like 2008 and 2012.

Trump will win.

By shilling.

Does nate Copperfield do a final prediction before the election? Or does he just run numbers?

What is this hairstyle called?

I don't really know enough m8,
I just know from screen shot everything he has ever posted that he changes his answers and analysis very often.
He is often incredibly wrong, like with Bernie Sanders (who he said would beat Hillary for the primary spot). No one cares though and shills out his final outcome, which yeah he is accurate on, but the fuck does it matter what your opinion is when you post your perceived results like a day before the election when you have ((insider)) information?

Any declaration of results before official tallies from polling places are considered predictions. Most people still get a lot wrong, day of.

Seriously who is paying him. Advertisers?


His ideological bias won't allow him to correctly call the impending trump landslide

JUST....

His hatred for Trump has clouded his judgment.

>just cukc my shit up famalam

this election isn't like the others

Nice ""polls"", Romney is ahead and will flip 2 blue states and win, easy. These polls are a heavy democrat sample and are biased, Romney is smashing early voting and Dems will stay home, this isn't 2008

J(ew)UST

I could have predicted the Obama elections, and I was a 20 year old raver that was taking ecstasy 3 times a week, and smoked pot everyday

It's not like this is an amazing feat, or anything. It was blatantly obvious to everyone what was going to happen.

Nate Silver is right to pick Clinton.

If she wins, Nate Silver wins again.

If she loses, turns out the poll rigging was real and there was no way to account for that. Nate wins again.

The man couldn't even take note of how his hairline is receding and get an appropriate haircut for it. Why the fuck should I listen to anything he has to say?

(((statistical analysis)))
Can't question the algorithm.

Jew York Times was for awhile then ESPN bought him. He's writing for them now.

He got brexit wrong, and I'm pretty sure he got the UK election wrong as well.

2008 and 2012 were both easy elections to predict, any moron could have seen those results coming

He's having a beautiful meltdown atm because he knows that Trump will win.

Looking at the samples clearly shows poll rigging.

When you over sample dems by 34%in Arizona and still only get Hillary plus 4 you know she is fucked.

Almost no one supported Romney in 2012; everyone was for Paul.

You're a cancerous newfag that is totally clueless.
Look at your image. All of that shit is months apart, because almost no one posted about him.

Literally does not apply

he cant even predict where his hairline is going

I going to kill him within the next week, so I guess it doesn't matter

Nate Frankensence predicted Trump would lose the primary and that the Cubs would lose the world series. The kike is becoming unhinged

Balding Beckham

SAVAGE

The chance of Trump winning is approximately equal to the chance of getting dubs with 4 rolls.

This is the same guy who said Trump had a 25% of winning the primary

Trump is a statistical anomaly

>nate "spella pingus"

please god let this happen again, need more of these images

>nate Copperfield
fucking love it

>Is Trump doomed?
He said that Trump has better odds than the Chicago Cubs so I think I'll trust his word and say Trump is going to win.

Can you make sure you cut his balls off before he dies? I know it sounds barbaric, but it's a request of mine.

Just bauld my shit up cuckpi

>Nate Pebble

he changes his prediction literally every day, so he's shit. fuck him.

Juden

kike said if the cubbies won, trump wins. Cubs won bitches.

the suicide watch

...

...

>he never accounted for a satire board to create a cult of the god of chaos KEK and use memetic magic to sway the election
JUST

The Cuck Cut

FiveThirtyEight:

147 Columbus Ave. – 4th Floor

New York, NY 10023

When you're too tall for your hair.

Can someone explain the oversampling meme?

The only reason they "oversample" Democrats is because more of them exist.

...

By being a Jew. Jews print money and give it to themselves in a thousand different ways. Even bottom-rung Jews get free housing and food their entire lives via monthly "disability" checks which is rubber stamped by a Jewish judge after they go to a Jewish psychologist and say "oy vey". This frees up time for them to devote their entire lives to spreading lies if they feel like it. Jews don't have to work to generate income. Only we do. You've been surrounded by fellow enslaved goyim for so long that your irreparably bluepilled mind thinks the same rules apply to everyone. You suffer from the same kind of myopic retardation that makes fanatical marxism possible

Yeah but he got
The EU elections wrong
the UK elections wrong
Brexit wrong
The Primaries wrong

Nate cardboard at this point.

Count the changes until Trump. It's 7, a magic number.

>dems won both those times
He's just a democratic shill

More Republicans voted this cycle then Democrats.

The Truth about Nate Silver. A dirty fucking shill for the Clinton Foundation.

realtruenews.org/single-post/2016/08/13/Truth-Polling-Site-Destroyed-By-Correct-The-Record-Owners-MISSING#!

He failed the word series

Don't do that. If anything you shouldn't treat him with anything other than respect and congratulate him for being a good sport.
Only you should have a smug look on your face. Just to rub it in.

They routinely oversample Democrats by 12-15 points, while undersampling independents(who vote for Trump) by 15-20 points.

More Democrats vote, but it's usually only 6-10%. Obama, for example, only got 8% more Democrats to vote but these polling projections are counting on Hillary to draw 10-14% more Democrats out.

Each election Republisharts think the polls are skewed by sampling favorable demographics for democrats

>Tfw too intelligent for hair growth

also checked

genuinely kek'd right there my lad

>Can someone explain the oversampling meme?
The meme is an over-simplification of why the polling is not reliable.

There are actual reasons that the polls are not reliable, for example, they might assume that millennials will turn out at the same rate they always have or that the people who have never voted in the last decade also won't vote this time. But this is a mouthful of technical jargon so it's easier to just say that OVERSAMPLING and still communicate the same intent: Get out and vote regardless of the polling.

THE 538 "INQUEST"

At the behest of Nate Sliver (liberal "polling god" of 538.com) his minions launched a private investigation into Longroom.com. They wanted to know "Who's Behind A Mysterious Website Saying Polls Are Skewed." Make no mistake--we know how this works--the article was an expression of frustration because they couldn't crack Longroom--so they published it. If you know what to look for and read between the lines, it's a call for informants.
It worked. Someone talked.
We have information that says someone with knowledge called Harry Enten, Silver's lead enforcer, with the goods. At that point David Brock of Correct The Record was called into "sanitize" the situation. Someone begin with a coordinated Denial of Service attack which took down Longroom.
What happened after that is sketchier. The persons behind it are missing. They were operating under aliases on the site--but we believe that Enten and Brock were able to locate them. If you don't believe people get killed for less in this business, you don't know the Clintons. Exposing the rot at the heart of the polling industry was more than enough to make sure the people behind the site would disappear forever.

The resilver hairline

The only thing that needs to happen now is Trump winning.

I surmise ten or fifteen days after Trump is sworn in, after the initial taunts and told-you-sos start festering in his mind, after he loses all his credibility and watches his hard work in constructing a sage-like image of himself start crumbling and falling apart, after spending countless hours at random bars drinking to forget what a fool he's been made of, that's when you'll see the headline on the nightly news:

>Nate Charcoal, 38, Found Dead in His New York Apartment

very wierd balding pattern

Hmm, I wonder why you're posting the old chart.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1

...

Why does this guy never smile?

>he predicted all the rigged elections
Really made me think.

You realize they understand this and adjust for this, right?

If he didn't adjust for this, he wouldn't have gotten 50/50 states right last election.

Hillary will think she won..but than the FBI will be arresting her before she ever is able to become President. That has been the plan all along. The biggest news story and shocker of 2016.

People are setting her up to watch her whole empire fall before her because she's a dumb bitch.

>32.4% Chance for Trump
Xcom taught me to never ignore RNG

I remember the BBC calling him in to give his take on the 2015 UK general election, and he got that wrong (he predicted a hung parliament).

I'm fairly sure that he was wrong on Brexit too.

All he has taught me is that his method of predicting election results does a poor job of tracking 'shy' voters.

Criminally underrated.

Their weighted samples are the ones with the oversampling, how do you adjust for that?

Nate is slowly realizing he's screwed.

lmao

>Jew York Times was for awhile then ESPN bought him. He's writing for them now.
ESPN. Which is owned by Disney. The Jews did this.

34.2, he just updated 10 minutes ago.

...

nate Lithium BTFO

the fbi can't arrest anyone. all they can do is hand over what their findings to hillary's cronies at the department of justice and recommend they do something with it

He's a democratic partisan who benefitted from two easily predictable election cycles in 08 and 12 who has not seen the forest for the trees this year and is getting comprehensively BTFO

ITT: Idiots getting mad when Trumps chances in model used by Fivethirtyeight has been rising.

Trump right now has 34% chance of winning. It went from 14 or 16% to 35% in about a week. And it keeps rising. That's good for Trump.

Last week, I've posted here that Trump chances aren't bad. 1/6 (16.67%) is the chance of rolling a dice and hoping for a 6. Now, his chances are like throwing a dice and hoping for a 3 or 6.

The race has been tightening as some analyst indicated but not just for the reason they explanined. It's also due to Comey's poltiical maneuver which helped Trump a lot.

Stop playing the MUH VICTIM like a bunch of weak retards. Trump could very well win, his chances aren't bad. 2/3 is better than 1/3 but far more unlikely things happen in the world.

>The chances of the Cubs winning are about the same as the chances of Trump winning.
>Cubs win
>Everyone takes that as meaning Trump will win

You dumb fucks, don't you understand?
THE CUBS STOLE ALL THE LUCK FOR THEMSELVES.
THOSE GREEDY BASTARDS HAVE DOOMED US ALL.

Nate got his start as a baseball statistician. Trump victory is certain.

You change how much each vote is weighted, you're a fucking idiot if you don't understand how this works.

And as long as no more big surprised come out, I'm pretty sure he'll be predicting a Trump victory by election day when he makes his actual prediction.

Sup Forums was never, ever a satire board. People who were posting satirically back in the /n/; /new/; early Sup Forums era were always a small minority

>le first black president

Gee I wonder how hard it was to guess what states don't like blacks and which states were only voting because Obama was black

Also going in Obama wasn't a lying warmongering corrupt liar

JUST

>he got one wrong
If it bleeds we can kill it

Well he was talking about odds of Trump if the elections were ran that day. But the odds change over time.

>guessing the last election was hard
Lmao my high school class got 50/50