Are there any films that deals with this concept?

Are there any films that deals with this concept?

Attached: monty-hall.png (1342x653, 137K)

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=tvODuUMLLgM
youtu.be/o_djTy3G0pg
pastebin.com/jXsTbXtG
tutorialspoint.com/execute_python_online.php
twitter.com/AnonBabble

Did we ever get a definitive answer?

Attached: I don't get it.jpg (800x331, 31K)

Don't Hug Me I'm Scared 4

You should switch.
You have a 2/3 chance of choosing a goat. If you choose a goat, then you should switch to get the car. So 2/3 of the time, you should switch.
Just imagine if there were 100 doors, 99 goats, and 1 car. Doesn't it seem intuitive you should switch?
Nobody respond to the baiting retards who reply to this post.

Intro to stats was a fun class.

Final answer is in the beer.

youtube.com/watch?v=tvODuUMLLgM

IT'S COMPLETELY RANDOM CHANCE

IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU DO

Attached: 1518924053071.jpg (1129x1200, 118K)

>that image
Ironic...

Attached: 1518376624027.png (1296x1458, 212K)

Star Wars Episode III
Revenge of the Sith

Attached: MV5B.jpg (357x500, 46K)

not actually, it is still an open problem

Attached: 296px-Monty_open_door_chances.svg.png (296x301, 10K)

This blows my mind everytime. I still don't understand why the odds don't reset when a door is eliminated.

The picture literally fucking illustrates it

it is 50/50 you either guess right or you don't

No it does not. It shows the odds didn't change after a door was eliminated. Doesn't explain why the odds don't reset.

The chance that you succeeded on your first guess is 1/3. Even if a door gets eliminated, the chance you were correct is still 1/3.

>this is what STEMfags actually believe

Attached: 1487323965269.jpg (386x250, 23K)

You are repeating the same thing, but not explaining why the odds don't reset.

For example if you didn't get to choose a door before one was eliminated the odds would be 50/50 because their would be no context to know what group was 2/3 or 1/3

unless he revealed that the door you initially chose was wrong, there is no reason to switch. The supposed statistical benefit of switching is an illusion which mathniggers latch onto because they're fucking spergs in a useless discipline.

I knew after his 3rd ring Tom would become the goat.

Attached: images.jpg (255x198, 12K)

And if they are right then this is some quantum mechanics dead cat shit again.

What if the right door is nr 1? Than you have 0 chance of getting anything behind 2 and 3 :)

The movie "21" literally has a scene that breaks it down

Attached: 1520921624494-tv.jpg (540x661, 83K)

you can literally test this yourself and see that switching is more likely to win

I hate these fucking threads, you can't even tell who is genuinely retarded and who is just baiting

You actually can't test it, because your preconceptions in how you program it effect the final result.

You take the corn across the river first I think.

get a friend and test it irl if you are so determined

>uncircumcised

Disgusting.

Nigga, just understand that if you switch you ALWAYS end up with the opposite outcome of your initial choice. Then consider the odds of the original choice.

Imagine 1 billion doors, one is a winner. Pick a door. 1 in billion chance of picking the correct one. Now, he opens all doors except one and the one you chose. What on earth makes you think that you WERE so good at choosing that first door that now all of a sudden its 1/2 instead of 1/billion ?

lets end this. you will always get the car by switching after picking a door with a goat (picking a goat = 66% chance). remember, monty hall KNOWS whats behind the doors and will not open the door with the car.

Have you forgotten the asymptotic limits that come into place with exponential pace? One billion isn't the same as 3 doors

The same principle works with 100 doors to illustrate the logic behind the 3 door scenario.

Ultimately it's what
Said

That's because these people don't understand how it works. The key to this problem is something that nobody has mentioned- the host has full knowledge of the correct door. He MUST eliminate a losing door. That is what causes the odds to change.

How do you know he knows?

That's just part of the problem..... Otherwise there would be a non zero chance of him opening the door with the car, which makes no sense

the odds don't reset because you know that Monty Hall knows which one the car is behind and that he can't open the door that you picked.

it would be 50/50 if:
>you pick a door
>you go to the toilet to take a shit
>monty hall eliminates one of the two remaining doors
>since you're taking too long taking a shit, they call someone else to replace you
>someone who wasn't watching the show
>there's 2 doors available, 1 of them has the car, he knows nothing about the previous events

So the solution is specific to the circumstances you demand be taken for granted? seems convenient

Because it's written into the fucking problem and is also how the ACTUAL MONTY HALL SHOW WORKED? The revealed door is always a goat.

Experiment with it. Get 3 cups, put something in one, and get someone to guess it with or without switching. You'll see that if he switches , after a while, he will have guessed more.

Just pick one and roll with it lol

are you aware of the fact that this gameshow and monty hall isnt just hypothetical? why would a real gameshow host reveal the prize?

The circumstances are BASED ON THE REAL, ACTUAL MONTY HALL SHOW LET'S MAKE A DEAL. THE PROBLEM ISN'T ARBITRARY, ITS A RECREATION OF THE ACTUAL CIRCUMSTANCES ON THE SHOW AND WAS DONE TO DEFINITIVELY FIGURE OUT WHICH OPTION WAS BETTER. FUCK.

Depends on which lore you're consulting, Monty once opened the wrong door

You're a fucking retard

are you upset because someone cut your penis when you were a baby?

Attached: Capture.jpg (823x127, 30K)

for the purposes of this exercise let's assume Monty wasn't drunk that day

It’s 50/50. Either you pick right or you don’t. Fucking retards.

Attached: D858D3E6-91EB-4D4B-8915-B02ADFEF6FEE.png (300x300, 4K)

>The same principle works with 100 doors to illustrate the logic behind the 3 door scenario.
No it only works if you have 4 or more doors.

Imagine it with 100 doors

Can't I improve my odds by listening to the doors and seeing if I hear goat sounds? Why am I picking blindly? There's clues I can use

There are 3 doors each with equal chance of the car being behind it.
>P(a) = P(b) = P(c) = 1/3
You pick door a, the chance of the car being behing the other 2 doors is 2/3
>P(b u c) = P(b) + P(c) = 2/3
Monty Hall has to show which of the 2 remaining doors doesn't have the car
>P(c) = 0 => P(b) = 2/3

This isn't hard to understand. You originally have a 2/3 chance of being wrong, 1/3 of being right. Monty Hall ALWAYS opens one of the wrong doors. Therefore, if you stay, you're betting on the 1/3 chance of being right. If you switch, you're reversing it to bet on the 2/3 chance of your original choice being wrong (in other words, betting on 2/3 chance of being right this time).

>host shows 1,000,000,000,000,000 doors
>you pick the one that you think has a car
>host opens 999,999,999,999,998 doors with goats behind him
>he offers you to switch to the other door
>"hurr durr it's just 50/50"

youtu.be/o_djTy3G0pg

It’s literally 50/50. This is why we keep you math nerds away from developed society- dumb abstract thinking is harmful.

realistically speaking the correct door is likely to be one of the doors right in front of me and Monty, so I know I have good odds anyways that are better than 1/1,000,000,000,000,000 since we aren't going to go down the hallway

winning the lottery is 50/50, either you pick the right numbers or you don't :^)

I understand this metaphor, but the math stops working when there's only 3 doors. It's actually just a 50/50 chance then.

/thread
theres literally a scene where a professor talks about this for 5 minutes straight

t. trump voter

Reminder that everyone in this thread unable to understand this problem is American.

youtu.be/o_djTy3G0pg

Wrong retard. The math is LITERALLY RIGHT HERE

Just wrote a quick python program to test this:
pastebin.com/jXsTbXtG
copy into:
tutorialspoint.com/execute_python_online.php
And if you can follow the simple code you'll see the chance of switching to the correct answer is 2/3

Your chance is always 50/50 no matter how many doors, because your first choice is either right or wrong

this

It's actually 999,999,999/Billion to 1/billion chance in this scenario.