THIS IS NOT A DRILL

RCP PREDICTING IF TRUMP WINS FLORIDA HE IS PRESIDENT. Can he do it?

Other urls found in this thread:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
whatthedatasays.com/2016/11/03/raw-early-voting-numbers-in-florida-prove-polls-are-using-a-bad-methodology/
breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/04/republicans-hold-lead-record-florida-early-voting/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012
youtube.com/watch?v=SKGjczYz1bg
conservativetribune.com/early-voting-leaked-jaws-drop/
fivethirtyeight.com/features/independent-voters-are-overrated/
ijr.com/opinion/2016/11/261634-florida-volunteer-files-affidavit-swearing-witnessed-election-workers-filling-ballots/
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

Yes.

Tough to say. He's getting his ass handed to him in early voting, and Hispanic turnout is expected to surge. He'll need to really push the #SpiritCooking bullshit if he expects to win any of that demographic over.

Florida is going Trump. He has lots of business and support there.

Omgggggggg Florida is going red red red!

wonder if those were forged broward county votes

Another thing to remember is that all the polls are weighted based on anticipated turnout demographics. Trump is galvanizing quite a few people to come out an vote.

It's essentially come down to whites. If they come out in force then Trump can easily take Florida.

did you see the lines for early voting? All spics and niggers lined up miles long. This is smart of the democrats, bus in the lazy shitskins to vote before the election day because they won't want to wait in line on November 8. The trump vote will come on November 8 so we'll see. The lines will be long as hell, and you know any shitskins who havent voted after today when the early polls close arent going to wait in that line. Trump supporters will, this is our last chance to take back the country. Florida will be close... we'll see.. even nate shitler has predicted a Trump florida in the past and we all know how he feels about trump

Hillary posted on facebook that Trump is the favorite in FL and OH and she is desperate now. Praise Kek.

Heres the linnk
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

This is literally not a joke. RCP is NO FRIEND of Trumps and doesn't want to give Trump Florida on their map. Are they correct in guessing this?

I think I'd rather have him lose Florida by a small margin. I'd like the time traveler larper to be proven right by a leak of voting machine fraud early December.

I think that would be the best time line.

Fuck off Puerto Rico your people are fucking up Trump in FL in the first place. You know nothing will happen off some voter fraud claims in FL, remember 2000?

See

>He's getting his ass handed to him in early voting,

What's this based on?

hahahahaha

In reality she probably knows she'll lose if she won't beg for votes

As a Floridian, all I've seen is overwhelming support for Trump in my area.

Your candidates retarded mouth is what's holding him down. Anyone else would at this point have the double digit lead she had over Trump over a week ago.

Have some self responsibility you ass hat.

Checked.

Imagine if it comes down to a recount in Florida AGAIN. That would be the absolute best.

Personally I don't know why Trump is wasting his time in Michigan. He needs to put all his time and money into 4 states: Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. His leads in the 3 N states is razor thin, while he's just behind in Florida.

I wish he had invested more in his ground game, then I'd be much more confident in the results.

I can't wait.

Volunteer for his local office to do GOTV stuff. Ground game is critical to getting the necessary turnout to win and Trump hasn't put much money into it himself. It may look good in your area, but you can't be sure about what Hillary people will be up to with all of the minorities.

early voting data?

to be fair, no one knows how early voting will turn out until those votes are actually tallied, so dont pay too much attention

>tfw floridian who still hasn't decided if i'm voting for a standard two faced cunt politician or a literal mad lad

With Hillary you know things will get worse.

What does anyone actually have to lose if Trump wins?

Fucked around and got a triple double

>He's getting his ass handed to him in early voting
lolwut

Do you morons just make shit up before you click submit?

whatthedatasays.com/2016/11/03/raw-early-voting-numbers-in-florida-prove-polls-are-using-a-bad-methodology/

How do I control Trumps mouth? And mr. spic, your people are the only ones left along with niggers and gays pushing for her. The problem is there are too many of you.

>retarded mouth
That's literally why I love him.

I really don't understand how people like you exist - you are too dumb to even understand your own election system... christ.

Almost everyone knows that democrats do well in early voting in Florida - polls on ppollinngnumbers showed that for those who plan to vote on the day you are looking at a 60/40 trump clinton split.

Leftist are more partisan and less proud of democracy, right wingers arent as partisan and love voting on election day probably because they dont trust their vote will even be counted if its mailed

I'd vote for Trump if only because he's probably the last political candidate we'll see in our lifetimes that isn't owned by a thousand other special interest groups with their own dubious motivations pulling the strings.

This. Republican early voting across all states show about a 6 point swing since Obama. More than enough for Florida but New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado will be close.

REMINDER: Obama was killing Romney with early voting in Florida.

>In addition, both Democratic and Republican strategists agreed that the President’s ground game and early voting leads played a huge role in such a tight race. Despite laws that curbed early voting, more than 4 million Floridians cast a ballot before Election Day (almost 50% of all voters), and reports showed that Obama was leading by about 104,000 among those voters.

We are up by a few thousand right now

>breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/04/republicans-hold-lead-record-florida-early-voting/

Screencap this to shut the CTR shills up. IT'S OVER

Florida here. My friends and I did our part to MAGA today.

Forgot to post the link for first quote. Here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012

Too many fake votes in broward and miami-dade county from the shitheads running the election there. Sorry to say, but he's going to need to take PA, NC, and the rest of the swing states

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

COME ON NEVADA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

Nevada is red my dude.

New Hampshire and ME-2 are also trending red in the past few days.

Can someone look up early voting in NV in 2012 vs 2016? Should give us a good indicator of who is taking it.

>Nevada is red
It's too close to call, but if the trend continues both NV and NH are going to be red before Tuesday.
I just hope Hillary doesn't bounce back

I think nevada and new hampshire are gonna cooperate. I have a feeling florida is going to fuck it up, though.

MI will go red

>pure blue maine
>blue florida
>blue north carolina
>blue michigan

Not gunna happen

I actually heard that he's doing pretty well in early voting in Florida. The two states we need to worry about while looking at early voting data are Colorado and Nevada. Clinton is doing about as well as Obama did in early voting in Nevada and Obama won handily.

I think the damage is done and we won't see too much movement towards her.

Kek wills it

Yes

I honestly think he can take New Hampshire. Have you looked at the polls lately? New Hampshire has actually swung in favor of Trump. It will be close but I think he can do it. Unfortunately I think he may lose Colorado and nevada. Especially because of Nevada's high hispanic population.

CNN put Trump up by +6 in Nevada a few days ago.

I can see him narrowly squeaking out a win if that's the case.

>youtube.com/watch?v=SKGjczYz1bg

>youtube.com/watch?v=SKGjczYz1bg

>youtube.com/watch?v=SKGjczYz1bg

WAKE UP EVERYONE YOU CAN

VIRAL

SPREAD

MIRROR

LESS THAN A WEEK TO GO!

IT’S WITHIN OUR GRASP BUT WE MUST FINISH STRONG

...

I actually looked up the early voting for Nevada the other day and it didn't look good. Clinton is doing as well in Nevada as Obama did in early voting. I blame spics.

>texas

>red

>MI red
Not gonna happen, he's consistently 3-4% behind in Michigan. Pennsylvania is actually more likely to go red, although still unlikely.
She doesn't even need a bounce, she's probably going to win if the upward trend slows down.
I hope the spirit cooking meme scares some christian latinos, and I think there's still some memery dropping on monday so I have faith, but it's going to be a close one either way

There has been an odd incident with ballots in florida every day. And that is only what we hear about.

They are rigging it hard.

96099999

...

CALLING THE MEMETIC WARFARE DIVISION.

SPAM ALL #SPIRITCOOKING RELATED MATERIAL TO FLORIDA HISPANIC CHURCHES BEFORE SUNDAY.

FIND THEIR FACEBOOK GROUPS.

I live in Miami, I saw a commercial of trump saying that he'll maintain the minimum wage or something and then it cut to an hispanic family and their son saying "Trump wil lbe bad for us" and blahblahblah, it then it cut to him praying on his bed for Trump to lose, it was a Hillary ad.

They are really appealing to peoples' emotions here.

Can he do it?

Nigga he is doing it.

GOOD. Show your support.

Oh I guess I hadn't checked the polls in awhile in Nevada. Still I was reading articles about how early voting doesn't favor Trump in Nevada, and (((Nate Silver))) still has Clinton winning Nevada slightly. It'll be close but as of right now I still think it's about 50/50. Additionally, I've heard that Nevada is notoriously a hard stay to poll in. I don't know why but like in 2012 the polls are often a few points off.

Does everyone there hate Trump? I live in Cali and see republican support than ever but thats between whites

He is not winning Nevada. Look at the early voting.

It is a disaster for Trump.

He is winning MI, NJ, and PA too...Roll Trump

checked

What is RCP?

VOTER FRAUD IN FLORIDA IS RAMPANT. IT WILL COST TRUMP THE ELECTION IF IT ISNT DEALT WITH

>appealing to peoples' emotions here.
Cringey bullshit like that gets the channel changed.

Thanks Pablo, but democrats vote 60% before election day so it'll be okay. Plus Pawn stars are super pro Trump and so are the vegas casino owners.. so we'll see

Rear Clear Politics

The most respected, if you can respect polls, polling aggregate.

As a Michigander I agree.
The leftist pen is a fucking beacon in SE Michigan. SO much millennial idiocy. I have been surprised with the amount of black support I have seen, but the BLM movement is strong in Detroit, and the white suburban college students are a bunch of Bernie die-hard cucks who have fallen for his #ImWithHer BS rhetoric.

Look for a Jeb surge in Florida, that will indicate that the Bushs are rigging the state as is their custom. Is Stone on the case trying to prevent that?

Surprisingly, not as much as I thought. Trump has held rallies here at least 2 times and their was plenty of support. There's even a video of a Trump rally here where one protestor yelled something positive about Hillary and then one of the Trump supporters yelled back, in spanish, "Hillary Clinton is a dog". It's pretty hilarious, so their isn't as much Trump hate as you think there would be given the demographics.

That's the national average for Nevada that doesn't hold true for Nevada.

Also in Nevada 70% of the total vote historically comes from early voting and absentee ballots. I am in the Trump team and his numbers look much better than Romney but they don't seem enough... there is a reason why his chances in the bookies in Nevada are plummeting.

>conservativetribune.com/early-voting-leaked-jaws-drop/

>nevada
>red

most polls i've seen Trump is ahead or at least a tie in Nevada. New Hampshire is a real toss up going by the polls.

>early voting data?

(((polls)))

It's illegal to count ballots before the election

How many independent votes compared to last election? He is winning more indepedents than Romney did. I am an independant and didnt like romney either

Thus far, Democrats have about 40% of the Nevada early vote to about 36% for Republicans and 23% other for week 2 early voting through November 3, according to the Nevada Secretary of State.

The Democrats had an edge in 2012, too. They led 44 percent with Republicans at 37 percent. Obama won Nevada in 2012 52.3% to 45.7%.

To put this in perspective, this Democratic lead is down just a bit from 2012, but not enough to be all that significant. At this point in early voting in 2012, the Democrats were ahead of the Republicans 45 percent to 37 percent.

tl;dr Dems are down 5% while Republican vote is steady, so it comes down to how the independent vote breaks.

Also, (((CNN))) gives Trump +6 in Nevada. The same pollster who said Hillary won the second debate (lol)

He got Rick Harrison's support. That has to amount to something.

It would be funny (extremely unlikely) if almost everyone who claimed they voted for Clinton actually voted for Trump.

>We need more votes!
>please send us more money!

Early voting dating counts returns by party affiliation.

So far, Dems are still up but down from where they were in 2012. Still doesn't bode well for Trump. Only way he wins is if 70% of independents break towards him and more Dems than Republicans breaks for Trump than for Hillary

Romney won by 7 points Independents. Even if you assume that Trump is winning Independents by 20(which is too much, considering that the demographics of Nevada are quickly changing) then he still loses.

The only chance he has is a massive surge to vote in election day(which as you said is usually good for Republicans).

As a Trump voter I would say I voted Clinton, I dont want them to can my vote before election day.

I put my vote in for trump for the primary and again in the general. My entire family of 5 + gf did as well. We put trump over the edge in the primary and I think we will do it again this time. FL declared best state when???

So essentially it will come down to independents and be close as fuck. That's kind of what I thought.
Also good breakdown. Have a (you)

Thanks Ameri-kun

Also, Trump will win Florida and by that get 270. Kek wills it

>counts returns by party affiliation.
That's not a good thing for Clinton considering a shitload of registered democrats abandoned her.

...

I love germans. I wish you werent getting multiculturulized.

Fucking checked

>SHADILAY

Yeah, that's the only possibility of a Trump win in Nevada.

Obama was a relatively popular sitting president who inspired loyalty in the Dems. I'm not sure that'll be the case with Clinton. Republicans will fall in line but I am not sure Dems will.

Still, an uphill climb for sure. Without Nevada Trump's chances are also pretty bad, as you can see here.

According to FiveThirtyEight Trump is up by an average 7 points with independents while Romney won independents by 5 points
fivethirtyeight.com/features/independent-voters-are-overrated/

That being said it's likely in my opinion that Democrat turn out will be lower because almost everyone hates Clinton and in general Independent voter turn out will be up. In other words this election is going to be close as fuck.

Floridian here. My entire family except for two voted Trump. The two voted Hillary but they live in California so fuck 'em.

Give us a few years to wake up and uncuck ourselves, maybe 10, and Germans will sweep their country with an iron broom.

Until then
TRUMP2016

>be the case with Clinton
Only the most diehard Democrats will stay with her after all of the bullshit going on right now.
I'm pretty confident he's got this, barring MAJOR rigging.
And by major I mean the type that won't be ignored.

you're assuming they know about all the shit that has been going on.

Why does your map look like that?

ijr.com/opinion/2016/11/261634-florida-volunteer-files-affidavit-swearing-witnessed-election-workers-filling-ballots/

gl hf