I find it interesting why people are arguing over states like Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire when Clinton is actually up (only by a bit) in Florida. On everybody's map, Florida goes red, but if the polls are right (i know), it's game over for Trump, regardless of him getting most other tossups
Why does everybody assume Florida will go red?
Ayden Ross
Other urls found in this thread:
countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
ijr.com
dangerandplay.com
dos.myflorida.com
dos.myflorida.com
wsj.com
newstalkflorida.com
tampabay.com
cnn.com
twitter.com
Nathaniel Harris
Nothing is going to happen. None of our pol conspiracies are going to happen. Shes going to win, people will whine like every other president before and she will just be Obama for another eight years. We have all been on this site for too long and it has skewed our vision. She's going to win, nothing is going to change, she's not going to get arrested or assassinated. There's nothing we can do guys it's over and there's nothing anyone can do about it. It's all fake and we just need to get off this site and make America great ourselves.
Yknow I just figured it out. If trump wins we a just going to stay up here and shitpost.
If Clinton wins we will be so embarrassed and ashamed of the past year wasted that we will go out and start lives and contribute to society. Maybe it is best if she wins
Brandon Phillips
Nice pasta and/or autism.
Jonathan Watson
>our
nice try faggot, you aren't one of us.
She's going to prison.
James Peterson
There's a consensus here that polls over predict democratic performance, thus anything close to a tie goes to Trump. Pollsters often find the "likely voter" based on the previous election which is a 180 from where we are this year.
Landon Howard
...
Easton Stewart
First paragraph is true, I don't know about the rest.
I don't think the president will affect most of the people who come on here.
Ethan Carter
because we live here
Michael Bell
Hey
You know what is near Florida?
The virgin islands. Think about that that for a moment.
David Roberts
Thanks for an actual answer, I didn't expect one.
Kevin Sanders
Because they are dumb as fuck.
Jack James
Look at the sample sizes dumbass. So biased it hurts.
Brody Hernandez
There are other paths that don't go through Florida. PA- MI to name one.
Joshua Hernandez
Sup Forums wasn't meant the last forever
but we're sure as fuck not leaving under a globalist
Deus vult, ave Trump.
Joshua Sullivan
This, in addition to first time voters who aren't reached by the pollsters. Simply put, Sup Forums believes Trump's support is generally 2%-5% higher than indicated in the polls.
Jack Price
it actually is, but ofr the "movement" Trump accidentally uncovered, idk about Sup Forums neets.
whoever wins this election is in for a shitstorm. interest rates aren't gonna stay this low forever, and Deutsche Bank is already hanging by a thread. And who knows wtf the Russians/Chinese/Iranians are going to do. TRump is an unknown, but Hill is a known incompetent.
might be best for her to win and fuck up magnificently.
Dylan Martin
Movement?
The leaks?
Brandon Torres
If we assume that Republicans are, for the most part, voting for Trump, and that Democrats are, for the most part, voting for Hillary (although it's worth noting that several polls show that Dems have a higher crossover rate for Trump than Repubs do for Hillary), then Trump is currently winning Florida absentee/early voting by a slim margin. By comparison, Obama had a pretty sizable lead at this point, but only won the state by less than 1%.
This all fits in with the notion that Hillary is NOT going to be getting Obama tier (or greater) turnout, which is what all the polls tend to assume. If absentee/early voting continues at this rate, and Trump gets at LEAST Romney-tier turnout, he'll take Florida. This is also to say nothing of the large turnout of independents, who Trump generally polls better with by a significant margin.
Christian Young
>By comparison, Obama had a pretty sizable lead at this point, but only won the state by less than 1%.
(this is to say, Democrats generally build up their lead with early voting, but Republicans generally have a greater turnout on election day)
Ethan Thomas
Fair points, however Romney had policy and didn't offend every minority. Maybe it could lead to a higher turnout of Democrats in fear of a President Trump?
I fucking hate both of them, but I fear Trump.
Charles Williams
Bernie dems will vote Trump
Independents will vote Trump
Turnout will be higher for Trump
Luis Collins
ok bud
Charles Edwards
>higher turnout of Democrats
Again, using absentee/early voting as a general gauge, Democrat (and -especially- black) turnout is down pretty much across the board; it's an observed trend in most other states currently in the process of absentee/early voting. If they're not turning out for early voting (which is a Democrat strong point), they're probably not going to turn out on election day, which Republicans generally dominate.
>however Romney had policy and didn't offend every minority.
Conversely, nobody was enthusiastic about Romney.
James Jenkins
Whoops, forgot my image.
Jackson Torres
I live in Florida
Believe me,Trump will win Florida.
Lincoln Cooper
KEK WILLS IT
check em
Gabriel Cox
concern trolling copypasta, saw this posted like 5 times now
Leo Ortiz
Trump is leading with early voters in Florida which should not be happening for a Republican.
Nicholas Richardson
Trump may lose the vote among regular Hispanics, but he's definitely gonna win among Cubans. A major point of his foreign policy is ending Obama's appeasement of the Castros.
Benjamin Ross
The Democrat turnout in NC was weakened by limited early-voting booths in a lot of the Democrat-dominated counties. They may make up ground on election day itself, or in the last few days of early voting.
Cooper Edwards
I'm going to vote on Monday. What should I vote for when it comes state amendments FL fags?
Anybody in Gainesville see the Trump supporters off of Archer Road on Fridays? I always honk and give a thumbs up.
UF Liberals BTFO
Luis Parker
O, looks like we got confirmation on Florida, might as well call it.
Christopher Watson
Because every non-Democrat poll has him either within moe or slightly ahead, Also, he's still ahead in early voting and Republicans usually lead on the 8th.
Lucas Sullivan
Alright, I guess we'll see November 8th
Jose Walker
Link?
Carter Ramirez
Cubans are typically republican. However a larger percentage is now voting democrat. Still though, the majority of Cubans vote republican the
Matthew Martin
TToday is the last day and it's not a black church day.
Julian Torres
Perhaps, but unless they make -substantial- inroads over the course of the next few days and on election day, I don't see them taking it. Bear in mind this is a state Romney won in 2012.
Furthermore, low dem/black turnout is (currently) present in other states as well, so I'm not entirely sure it's an NC specific issue.
Bentley Ramirez
I'm slightly worried about Florida, but I'm more worried about NC. He can lose one (hopefully NC), but both an electoral win is out of the question.
Anthony Cox
countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com
Absentee ballots received and early in-person voting are what counts.
Jason Murphy
Yes for weeds - unless you think canibis is degenerate.
No on solar
Robert Fisher
NC looks much brighter than FL actually. Lowest black voter turnout since 2000 and the lead is similarly small. Just getting Romney levels would be enough for a R+7 win.
Alexander Richardson
Reminder that democrats and minorities disproportionately use early voting compared to republicans. People need to realize these polls especially within the margin of error don't represent a victory or defeat.
Landon Green
Because I live here and everyone I know is voting Trump or not voting.
Kayden Green
I meant the link to your supposed non-democrat polls
William Young
Florida is going red. I guarantee it. I still haven't seen one Hillary sign anywhere in central Florida and I live pretty close to Orlando.
Ayden Price
Me too. Trump signs everywhere
David Reyes
>everyone I know
>is a NEET
>everyone I know = 15 people max
15 is too small of a sample size, sorry user
Dylan Cook
Bradley effect + high voter turnout.
Trump is going to blitz this election.
Brandon Ramirez
I work in a corporate office. I live around people I see everyday. Not a NEEt at all
Ryan Jones
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Siena College and Selzer Company (each rated A and A+) have him ahead by 2-4 points.
Owen Wood
Could that possibly be wrong?. I can go on broward county supervisor of elections website and the votes tally are significantly higher.
James Wood
I go out with a Trump sign on a major road near my apartment for an hour or so every weekend and get a shitload of pro-Trump honks/shouts. Have experienced almost zero anti-. There's a guy (or two guys?) who apparently hang out at the bridge over I-4 with a huge Trump banner what must be every day because everyone in the area knows about them. We're going to be like 80%+ red in Seminole.
Adrian Clark
She's not going to prison. Thats' a pipe dream. Obama would pardon. Trump is still going to win, though.
Oliver Hernandez
trump signs everywhere in florida bro. you must live in Oregon.
Brody Thompson
I think Hillary has a better chance at AZ than she does Florida.
Aiden Gutierrez
I've seen a lot of that in the last week or so. I always honk and wave.
Brandon Rogers
Good for you user. I should have done that.
Camden Hernandez
Trump is already getting blown out in Orange County. At Halloween horror nights the majority of people were cheering on the Hillary impersonator. Anecdotal yes
Tyler Ward
There's absentee voting and early in-person voting.
Grayson Roberts
NBC poll isn't scientific in the slightest, CNN is self explanatory, and that aggregate doesn't even include LA Times polling. It's very biased.
Jaxson Garcia
look at early voting stats for this election vs. last.
he's going to win with 5%+
Jason Roberts
Ignore (((polls))) saying Trump is winning
Ignore (((polls))) saying Trump is losing
Go out and vote
Get normies and low info relatives and acquaintances on Trump's side and go out and vote
NC and Florida should be the least of anyone's concerns, its the other states that'll be close
Benjamin Wood
Because legitmate polls show it will
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Colton Gonzalez
Just south side trash. They don't vote anyway.
Zachary Ortiz
I live in the center of the I-4 corridor (Orlando) and even in this super librarded city, there's vastly more support for trump than clinton. I'm gauging this for Tuesday to see if there is obvious election rigging. If she wins Osceola/Orange county by a landslide, that'll be a sure fire indicator of fuckery going on.
Eli Thomas
Haloween Horror Knights is almost exclusively stupid children though. Most won't vote. That's like saying Hillary will win because all of the ex-presidents are going to vote for her, including all of the dead ones.
Glad to hear it. I haven't seen much but I have to take a deep breath every time I go out because there is always one nigger vehicle that starts chimping out in my direction and I'm expecting to be shot in service to the movement. If I am, the martyrdom is worth it if it helps us win.
Hell yes.
Still plenty of time, brother. Just get a poster board and some markers and go out with some sunglasses on. Just stay in a safe area.
Mason Cox
I meant Nights. I'm drinking Yuengling and thinking about going to the UCF tailgate tomorrow to see Don Jr. I'm getting MAGA overloaded.
Gavin Cook
You can literally go on Orange county's supervisor of
Elections. Trumps already down huge.
Juan Russell
Her supporters must be living in silent shame then. I've seriously seen maybe a handful of her bumper stickers or signs in yards over the past year.
Obviously all this is purely ancedotal.
Elijah Sullivan
with any luck, and a little messing around (nudge nudge wink wink), this could go the way of the 2000 elections with Florida settling this wonderful year.
James Butler
>Why does everybody assume Florida will go red?
It won't.
Election Volunteer Files Affidavit With Florida Officials Describing Chilling Account Of Voter Fraud
ijr.com
Florida Election Officials Caught Filling Out Absentee Ballots, Affidavit Alleges
dangerandplay.com
Caleb Lewis
...
Jack Phillips
HELP IT GO RED, spread this instead. It's an ACTUAL CONFESSION OF GUILT FROM THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN TO LYING AND BRIBERY IN OFFICE:
→ →
Owen Stewart
Miss me yet?
Jace Taylor
Quads
Aiden Young
are you trying to reason with these retards? they are literally screaming about pizza and hotdogs
dont waste your time trying to convince them otherwise, just enjoy their tears on election day
its fucking over guys
Ethan Rogers
Trump's leading among Cubans, but it's a weak lead.
The big problem for him is Puerto Ricans. They've flooded into the state in the last few years, and the vast majority of them like Obama.
And since Puerto Ricans are American citizens, all they have to do to get involved in Florida is move there and register.
Joshua Martin
ok dub
Juan Phillips
dos.myflorida.com
>Florida: Voter Registration - Current by County
dos.myflorida.com
>Florida: 2016 General Election County Voter Registration By Party By Race
wsj.com
>there are also signs that black turnout may be down slightly in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Black early vote turnout is down 7% in both Florida and North Carolina compared to the same point in 2012.
newstalkflorida.com
>Both sides recall that in 2012 President Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney but half a percentage point
tampabay.com
>Friday morning showed Republicans cast 39.74 percent of votes and Democrats 39.71 percent through Thursday. That's three-tenths of 1 percentage point.
Florida will go red. Hillary does not have enough Independent support. Independents favor Trump over Hillary. There are over 3 million Independent voters in Florida.
Also, black voter turnout is low. Hillary will never get the black voter turnout that Obama had. Just won't happen. Obama barely won Florida, and Republican early voting turnout is above Democrats. Remember, the Independent voters as well!
Lastly, Hispanics have a smaller percent of the overall voting block than blacks; Hispanic turnout won't overshadow the low turnout for black voters and the Independent situation.
Trump wins Florida. The only way Hillary wins Florida is by election fraud.
Lincoln Hall
romney lost florida by 75k votes, less than 1% of the total vote. that was against obama, who was much more popular than hillary. trump is also likely to get more votes than romney since he BTFO'd him in every primary with record turnout.
still, that doesn't account for potentional fraud or changes in the past 4 years. we'll see.
Jacob Bailey
Implying she will live 8 years. Rich!
Jason Hernandez
I wonder if pasta existed like this for Nixon.
David Adams
>55
Check the image.
Trump has on average 45% of the Independent voter support. Hillary has about 29% of Independent voter support.
Hillary doesn't have Obama numbers.
Trump will win Florida. Only way Hillary wins Florida is through election fraud.
Ayden Cooper
...
Bentley Garcia
Dubs say Trump landslide.
Ethan Campbell
Is nobody gonna check em?
Daniel King
Holy moley
Ayden Scott
...
Daniel Bennett
This is now a dubs-for-God-Emperor threat
Lincoln Powell
>Only way Hillary wins Florida is through election fraud.
So she's going to win Florida.
Kayden Anderson
CHECKED, KEK'D & PRAISED
Samuel Turner
THIS he will win Florida
Andrew Taylor
czeched
Hunter Turner
you do remember Sup Forums and Sup Forums rooted for Obama for the most part right
you underestimate the power of memes, this place was filled with HOPE shit and rehashes and photoshoops of that poster.
Kevin Garcia
I'm actually pretty worried that this will happen, as a Florida resident I see fuck all Hillary support wherever I go
Bentley Hernandez
KEKUS VULT
Leo Powell
Also look how many voters Voted early in Florida in 2012 only 56%. There are alot more votes to come.
Noah Turner
...
Jace Morris
Washington (CNN)The percentage of eligible Latino voters who turn out to cast ballots typically isn't as high as other demographics, but early voting data in three key battleground states suggest that could be changing in the 2016 race.
So far, Latino voting in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina is significantly up from 2012, according to Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups to receive detailed early vote return information this year. Catalist's voter list connects returned ballots with demographic and registration information, such as party registration, gender and age, and allows a closer look at who has already cast a vote.
In total, more than 30 million votes have been cast already across 38 states with early voting. And both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continue to urge their supporters to vote early as Election Day nears.
Early voting update: Battlegrounds tight with 30 million ballots cast
Latinos tend to vote more Democratic than the population as a whole. And in 2012, Latinos voted for President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 71% to 27%, according to an analysis of exit polls by the Pew Hispanic Center.
cnn.com