BREAKING NEWS: TRUMP ONLY NEEDS NEW HAMPSHIRE

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

According to 538's latest forecast, Trump is literally ONE STATE away from the presidency.

So what's the Sup Forums ground game in New Hampshire?

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=SKGjczYz1bg
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

That's assuming he wins every state where they have him at a 51% chance of winning.

There's a bunch of coin flip States, this the 36% chance they give him

Problem is that 538 has been wrong about literally everything this election.

I want to believe though

Are you sure the red states will 100% go Red?

Also what about NV? I thought it was going Red.

They've been wrong because they tried to be pundits instead of following their own tried and true model (which showed Trump winning the primaries).

Now they're sticking strictly with polling data and the data show Trump only needs NH.

THIS JUST IN, DONALD TRUMP HAD POSSIBLY FATAL HEART ATTACK MID SPEECH

Rcp has nh leaning red already.

He's winning PA and has a shot at Michigan so NH is moot

They've only gotten one state wrong in the post two elections

Once 538 adjusts for this and it pushes trump over 50% chance of winning it's going to the media on suicide watch. Hopefully it happens by tonight.

>florida
>red

>nate silver is wrong
>unless trump is leading
>Sup Forums logic

He'll win New Hampshire for sure. They want the wall.

He's not even going to win Nevada.

i'd say other way around, he's winning MI and might as well win PA

Is there a path without Nevada? I'm worried about how many spics moved in.

Thus is the power of kek

Fuck this Nate is triying to use his negative probability meme magic against Trump

>FL
>red

>NC
>red

>youtube.com/watch?v=SKGjczYz1bg

>youtube.com/watch?v=SKGjczYz1bg

>youtube.com/watch?v=SKGjczYz1bg

WAKE UP EVERYONE YOU CAN

VIRAL

SPREAD

MIRROR

JUST A FEW DAYS TO GO!

IT’S WITHIN OUR GRASP BUT WE MUST FINISH STRONG

>without Nevada

And florida.

It doesn't look too good.

florida aint a sure thing yet

CUBS WIN!

NH bro here NH is solid red, the blues are more vocal but Hillary is going to get absolutely crushed here

no he's not wrong he's lying, big difference.

That's like saying Hillary made mistakes and didn't knowingly break the law(She did)

SPIRIT COOKING

This fucking election is really starting to affect me.

Fuck off shill, Florida is safe

He's on his way

Not anymore.

What did they mean by this?

The old syphilis infested populations of Central Florida are dying out and the Cubans in South Florida support Trump for the most part. NW Florida is so heavy lock in for Trump the dems here were mostly bernouts anyway so they will vote Jill Stein so Florida is turning red this year.

>Florida
>Clinton +5

trump turns NH Red but ME 2 goes to clinton then its 269 - 269

Curious to see how we respond when trump loses....

>Florida

White votes are up by 1 million compared to 2012, as opposed to just 100k black and 300k Latino votes. Florida is officially a Trump lock-up.

Polls disagree.

You faggots do realize Trump would be up by like 10% in every battleground state if he admitted he was lying about building a wall to get the rubes in the primaries to vote for him, correct? The rubes would vote for him over Hillary anyway, and Latinos wouldn't be turned off in droves. More than enough to tip every battleground to Trump.

But let's blame the Jews or the 10 people online who use the #NeverTrump hashtag, or something.

He will get all the red and light red states, he will also get one light blue state.

Actual votes disagree with the polls. Cry more, Nate.

Florida is going red, bank on it

>turning every battleground solid red
>turning every lean blue into battlegrounds

X

Really nothing has changed then.

REMEMBER THE 10 THOUSAND ILLEGAL VOTES

>Sup Forums
>ground game
lolwut.jpg

Voted today. We have to.

Not true if Nevada goes to Clinton, and early voting indicates that most likely it will. Nate's model doesn't count early votes, unfortunately, since they actually get the president elected.

I think he will win all of the states he is tied in because he has the energy and momentum in his campaign while Hillary has to cancel rallies because of lack of interest.

only (under)ground game Sup Forums autists could organize is a LAN party in their mommy's basements

yes i'm w/her sue me

>PA
>CO
>blue

love this meme

And if you believe that propagandists suddenly stopped being propagandists, I have a bridge to sell you.

This is stupidly simple. Polls exist to INFLUENCE, not to INFORM. Do not believe polls.

I'm scared NV might fuck everything up
Unless he wins PA

I think he will
But dunno why the latest PA poll has him tied
Everything, including Pittsburgh (was trending 3 Clinton, now trending 6 Trump. It's also one of his most enthusiastic votes according to that poll), has him up
Except for Philadelphia, which didn't trend upward or downward
Are they really that scared of saying +2 Trump in PA or something among those lines?

No one "counts" early votes until election day. The data so far indicates more Democrats than Republicans have voted so far. That's it. There's 90,000 more registered Dems in Nevada so that's no surprise. I have three registered Democrat relatives who all voted Trump there WILL be crossover. Note despite the registration number we still have a Republican governor.

Give it a couple days and the polls will reflect this

Trump is underrepresented in polls by around 5% right now, it used to be even more, (((they))) are moving closer to the real results to save face.

>Thinking people give enough shits about Hillary to actually vote especially on the day.
>Millennials and Blacks won't show up like the Democrats think they will.

OH SHIT NOWAY

All the drama will be on the East Coast. After the first results are in, if he wins PA, FL, and NC it's over.

I actually think the loose link is FL, but I hear that people are taking the "spirit cooking" story seriously, especially Latinos and Haitians who don't want vote for a "witch."

>he's winning PA

You forgot about
>Pennsylcucks

Pretty sure the pool for polls of likely voters is based on the 2012 election, in which a huge number of evangelicals stayed home because Romney was a Mormon not a real Christian. Pence will make them come out and bump Trump's numbers beyond expectations.

AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HOLY SHIT THIS GUY SHOULD BE A FUCKING COMEDIAN

I'm positive he's taking NC, NH, ME2, and FL
FL doesn't seem like a problem
Dade turnout is down this time around and Trump was a genius too
To combat Dade turnout, he campaigned heavily in the panhandle counties to counter the already low turnout here South

I think it's all going to depend on fucking Pittsburgh of all places

>AYO, LISSEN UP
Point 1. He is geting Nothing in Nevada.
Point 2. He is (probably..) getting Fucked in Florida.
Point 3. Add Point 1 + Point 2 = Hes Finished.
>WORD 2 WISE, YO.

We don't know for certain, but we can compare registrations with voting correlations from previous years and get a pretty good idea. To have a chance, Trump has to win an insanely high proportion of independent voters and hope that few of them vote for third candidates or write in. It's not looking so likely, to be honest.

you can say the same thing for blue states
also
stop posting fucking polls
or worse, (((analysis))) of polls
go back to /r/the_donald

Unless they say Trump is winning

He will win atleast one probably two out of CO, Pa, WI, or MI

HIDE ALL POLL THREADS

FILTER ALL POLL POSTERS

POLLS ARE PROPAGANDA AND DO NOT INFLUENCE YOUR NEED TO GET THE FUCK OUT AND VOTE. POLLS ARE IRRELEVANT NOISE.

Florida is guaranteed red

No, Cubans could fuck us. Hillary's more anti-Castro than Trump who wants to build a hotel in Havana.

He isn't getting Nevada they are rounding up every Hispanic they can find. Truly a bunch of cockroaches that have been brought in to swing your elections for the democrats. They should have been dealt with along time ago but Republicans were cucks.

Actually
I think the PA polling is correct
Now that I see it, Clinton is trending down
So it correlates

I just hope voter fraud in CFL and Broward aren't high enough to cancel out the rest of FL

SHES NOT GONA WIN PA SEPTA IS ON STRIKE AND THE NIGGERS WONT GET TO THE POLLS REEEEEEEEEEE

or they believe in the declaration of independence and the founding principles of a nation in which all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.

Fortunately, the US has constitutional protections against butthurt haters and wannabe despots.

Then what is blue is red and red is blue by that logic lol.

They will be operational on election day.

I believe in Lee Enfield and the Queen call it a difference of opinion.

I get that, but Obama was more likeable and Romney and McCain more insufferable. There's still a strong streak here to stop "Californization." But that said, yeah, I live in Las Vegas and it feels pretty much like Whites are only about 30% of people under 60.

>Florida
>Red
Even if Clinton doesn't win it legit, it seems she's gonna cheat it anyway

The white Republican vote will be higher this year than the last two elections.
Blacks and millennials will not turn out enough for Hillary.
This will negate most of the increase in votes from Cubans or Latino voters for the Democrats.
Florida is red, I would bet my house in it.

>All the polls show tight races in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and New Hampshire
>N-no! TRUMP'S GONNA WIN THEM ALL! MAGA!

Fucking dumbasses. The race in those states are what's going to decide things.
Assuming Trump doesn't break Clinton's wall, which no polls have shown him doing in any significant manner,
he needs all four of those states.

And all four of those states have been changing hands in the polls for the past weeks.

It's still entirely possible for him to win, but don't go saying "Oh, it's guaranteed!" like a complacent faggot.

You forget he is getting BTFO in nevada

I'm only talking about Florida if you liked at my map you'd see that the other states I only have leaning red. Florida is solid red because I know it will go that way 100%

Fuck, stop talking about early voting. Nothing is counted until Tuesday.

You forgot Hillary getting BTFO in Colorado.

You drumpfkins should worry about florida first or it will be over before it even gets started

603 here

I've seen huge trump signs being put up in Merrimack and maybe about 3 Clinton signs

It's gonna be close but I think we can do it

I doubt he will win PA.
There has been suspicious activities there in past elections
In 2012, Romney didn't get a single vote in 53 voting districts.

Polls dont fucking matter when we have actual votes. Trump is up in early voting already

>Drumpfkin
I hate globalists and I hate Americans like Hillary. If she was running against the Devil i would at least make a favorable reference to him.
>t country who has two female prime ministers

Romney sucked in general, plus was a Mormon, so evangelicals didn't bother voting. Pretty sure Pennsylvania has a lot of bible thumpers.

Most states you only need a majority to get all the votes

>coin flip

maybe the polls are (((right)))

This is amazing!!!

Hope youre right my potatonigger friend

not even then faggot

I didn't vote for that Poser Romney.

this is the most retarded post i've ever seen on Sup Forums

Reminder that MI is going red.

You do know this (((Nate Pedomium's))) site, right?

He shills for the hills for good reason.

I wish I could sign the visa of all our Trump Supporter diaspora.

Come home Belgians, Serbians, Slovakians, Russians, Chinks, Nips. All who want guns and to build a wall.

>moot
Who?