It seems like early voting in crucial states is strongly leaning towards Hillary, with record turnouts for Hispanics, women and minorities. FL and NC might go blue, NV will most definitely be blue. Trump has only white males (and less minorities and women than Romney) voting for him and they don't outnumber the rest of the nation. Trump doesn't have a path to victory with these numbers.
Also there's rumors that inside the Trump campaign the new goal is not to win the presidency anymore, but to get more electoral votes than Romney to prove to the GOP base that Trump was the right decision.
Yes, there is much more enthusiasm for Trump, thousands of yard signs, huge rallies, tremendous support. But in the end none of this matters. What matters are votes and so far Democrats are doing a much better job. Hillary united enough people against Trump to win the presidency, it's as simple as that.
It's only three more days, there's no time left to gain more voters and there won't be another big new leak or scandal or whatever. This is it.
Right now I'm really worried that it might become a huge blowout. There are even people saying that Alaska might become blue. FUCKING ALASKA!
Give me back some hope Sup Forums
James Adams
>Texas >red
Ethan Davis
Texas is looking like it will stay red this time, but it's close.
Doesn't matter though.
Adam Gray
you're too uneducated on the subject if you think arizona and nebraska's other district will go blue lol
Andrew Moore
I hope he wins, but I don't think he will. Just doesn't seem like he has the numbers, and demographics are against him. Seems like he may not get Florida, and if he doesn't then it's all lost. But even if he gets Florida, I don't see him getting NH, PA, or Colorado.
Brody Anderson
You said that a few days ago
Zachary Turner
>hurr durr, I'm totally not CTR
Cooper Clark
It's not my map, just used it as an example
This
Luke Barnes
Problem is that the polls vastly underestimate Hispanic turnout, see Nevada.
Lol kill yourself. How do threads like this even make it on here? I live in Florida and everyone here is nuts over Trump (pic related). I can garuntee he will sing Florida.
And what a fucking stupid thing to say: "he doesn't want to win, just get more votes than Romney." Your logic is flawed on multiple levels. Romney ran against Obama and Trump is running against Hillary. It would only make sense for him to want more votes than Romney if he was also running against Trump, because then you could use Obama as the baseline. But he isn't running against Obama so the situations can't be compared
Second, why the fuck wouldn't he want to win AND beat Romneys total? Both can be obtained. You role playing faggot. I hope you kill yourself
Wyatt Sanders
Black turnout is down 40% from 2012 and Democrats get 90% of the black vote. They have alot of ground to make up.
Trump gets 30-40% of the Hispanic vote. The number of hispanics that need to vote to swing the election would be overwhelming.
Jayden Morgan
Yeah, Trump is finished
Parker Phillips
He's getting all 4
John Gutierrez
Good thing Trump gets about 40% of the Hispanic vote, then.
Jackson Harris
...
Wyatt Harris
>You role playing faggot.
what does this even mean lol
Elijah Wood
*also running against Obama
Adam King
>Alabama >Mississippi >Lousiana >Red
Joshua Hernandez
I didn't expect this either but I guess it's staying red this year.
Gavin Thomas
Hell no it isn't over, a Hillary win just throws fuel on this fire baby. Here's hoping Trump crushes her, if not we'll have to do it for him.
Jacob Thomas
That map is dumb
Hillary will win Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, which will secure her the presidency
Trump might win North Carolina and Florida but it won't change anything
Giving her Iowa, Arizona, Ohio, and that one Nebraska district is pure fantasy
Gabriel Moore
Polls are also underestimating how much whites will turn out to vote for Trump.
Dems usually win early voting. It's not a great indicator of election night. In 2012 NC 48 percent Democrat and 32 percent Republican voted early but Romney won the state.
Caleb Ward
Who was paid to write this drivel?
Elijah Lopez
>Black turnout is down 40% from 2012 Source: your ass >Trump gets 30-40% of the Hispanic vote Source: the ass
Chase Ramirez
>one small state with a highly concentrated population >indicative of a nationwide trend
Reminder that Nevada is twice the size of Germany.
Justin Sullivan
>NH >Blue
Joseph Ward
I TRIED SO HARD
Carter Scott
He can't win without NV.
Liam Allen
he's down only 8 w/ hispanics in latest LATimes poll
Carter Butler
>Black turnout is down 40% from 2012
Source: data that the state of North Carolina publishes.
>Trump gets 30-40% of the Hispanic vote
Source: literally every fucking poll there is.
Cucknada status: absolutely REKT.
Luke Carter
Demography from both directions has changed NC, plus D's are actually motivated there over the bathroom garbage. Too many yankees and hispanics will make this probably THE swing state to decide.
Jack Reyes
fpbp
DRUMPF BTFO
Hunter Wood
>plus D's are actually motivated there over the bathroom garbage
So why is black turnout down by 40%?
Chase Reed
Where are you getting this misinformation?
Cooper Garcia
>AZ >blue Ok
Jacob Perry
lol. look how childish you Trumpsters get. I'm a conservative, but I'd never vote for him. He's clueless on military matters. At least Shillary's got experience.
Brandon Parker
Trump would be crushing hillary on election day,
however they will most likely rig it big time to show a very tight race
Then, in the last moments theyre going to give the win hillary
its simply impossible for them to let Trump become president. Theyre too powerful / too much money (and foreign money) on stake
Wyatt Flores
Colorado and nevada are already blue.
It doesn't look too good now.
Carson Perry
>early voting means anything
Conservatives cant vote early because we all have jobs.
Depends on the region. Florida is probably the most divided state in the country. While North Florida is uncontested Trump country, South and Central Florida are more divided.
Tampa and Orlando will go for Hillary by a huge margin and Dade County will go for Hillary by a small margin. Even if the rest of the state votes for Trump, it won't be enough to account for the huge liberal population centers.
Hunter Ramirez
>Also there's rumors that inside the Trump campaign the new goal is not to win the presidency anymore, but to get more electoral votes than Romney to prove to the GOP base that Trump was the right decision.
Oh wait, there is none because you either heard about it in one of your Reddit echo chambers or I am getting my Record Corrected.
James Miller
Yea that poll is trash. Source? Every other poll.
Asher Turner
turns out the 'CTR shills' were right all along, hm drumpfkins?
Christopher Watson
This idiot gets a free pass, and I got banned for posting a public LinkedIn page of someone who was involved in Wikileaks?
Fuck off, uneducated swine.
Jayden Sanchez
LA Times, by all accounts, seems to be an outlier because of its small sample size.
This came out on Thursday.
Evan Robinson
In actual early voting, lad, not manufactured garbage.
Jaxon Diaz
>LA Times, by all accounts, seems to be an outlier because of its small sample size.
LA Times has the one of the largest, if not the largest, sample size of some 2700 people.
Joshua Barnes
Sup Forums is an echo chamber too. You're not supposed to get your news from just one source. Try to see the bigger picture.
A lot of places are talking about a landslide victory for Hillary with Trump getting less than 200 EVs.
The truth lies probably somewhere in the middle.
Mason Bailey
>Not CTR btw, I'd love to be proven wrong.
Hi CTR.
Jason Lopez
Harry Enten has some solid new analysis of the situation in Nevada. It's looking basically the same as it was in 2012, when it went to the Democrats by 7 percent. "Indeed, the pattern in early voting looks pretty much the same as in 20121. After one week of early voting in 2012, Democrats made up 45 percent of early voters and Republicans made up 37 percent. Those numbers held through the second week of early voting and into the general election. Democrats had a 7-point edge after early voting that year and a 6-point edge after all the votes were counted. The fact that the registration numbers didn’t change very much after early voting shouldn’t be surprising, because absentee and early voters made up about 70 percent of all ballots cast."
>data that the state of North Carolina publishes. using one state to make general statement
>literally every fucking poll there is. no polls support this, and early voting doesn't say which candidate voters picked
I don't even have to try anymore
Wyatt Jackson
This is Hilary's best case scenario
Lincoln James
That 2:1 breaking for independents is based on just one questionable CNN poll. Independents don't usually break like that and there's other evidence to think that they'll end up breaking closer to 50-50, which won't be anywhere near enough to overcome the existing Democrat lead. It's looking like a comfortable win for the Democrats. I'm honestly quite surprised by this, now the numbers and analysis are coming out.
John Hill
next week you'll be back to sucking cock for a living. How does that make you feel?
Owen Russell
That shows Hillary leading.
It's possible that enough Colorado independents go Trump to break her lead, but you need to prove that. You're making a really big leap right now, so I'd appreciate any evidence of CO independents going for Trump over Clinton or Johnson.
Caleb Cooper
>That 2:1 breaking for independents is based on just one questionable CNN poll
Fine, let's assume the margin isn't that large. Trump still gets anywhere from +10 to +15 with Indies.
>there's other evidence to think that they'll end up breaking closer to 50-50
Not really, there isn't.
>which won't be anywhere near enough to overcome the existing Democrat lead
They only have a significant lead in Nevada. In Colorado, the lead is ~7k votes, basically worthless.
Brody Smith
Found a source. Independents in Colorado support Clinton, not Trump, by 4 percent.
Map threads need to be banned. You won't know anything until the 8th or 9th.
Most trump supporters don't trust early voting and will go to the polls in person.
Fuck off with your attempt to fill anyone with doubt.
Poll threads should be banned to, there's 5 posts right now each with a completely different %. It's all speculative bullshit. I don't give a shit who is winning or losing currently.
This "if" shit is fucking gay. People need to be considered with what is, not what if. Fucking wait until Tuesday.
Liam Williams
>a piss-poor 7k lead >Indies won't make that up
I don't know how absurdly lazy you have to be not to Google some polls for yourself and see that Trump has a comfortable majority with Indies. The lead might not be big enough to overcome Dems in Nevada, but it most certainly is in Colorado.
Leo Reyes
Wow, this is huge. In PA and FL too, so it's pretty much over.
How could this happen?
Jaxon Fisher
I don't want this
James Foster
By 0.3% and Democrats always lead in early voting. And as far as indies go, just google it, they have always favored Trump.
Ayden Smith
Yes, we're only talking Nevada.
I'll admit I don't have a source at hand for the break of independent voters in Nevada -- it's something I half-remember from somewhere. Best I can do is current media articles saying they don't expect a 2:1 breakdown of independents, like: "A KTNV reporter who has been analyzing the early voting results believes it will be very difficult for Trump to overcome the Democratic early voting tallies unless he does extremely well with independents. It’s unclear which way they will break of course.
But honestly, I'm not satisfied with that as a source. Going from what Enten is saying, Trump will need some very surprising performance to have a chance in Nevada. At the moment it's following a pattern that seems much like four years ago. We'll know more soon!
David Peterson
>Quinnipiac poll
Oh, that one is known for its accuracy, kek.
Kevin Cox
see It's totally possible leads with independents nationally, but he doesn't lead where it counts.
Jace Peterson
Hispanics
Xavier Stewart
Guys are you fucking serious?
Her campaign has been telling their voters to vote early. Ofcourse they are gonna have record turnouts because of this. It will change on election day. It is actually a sign of weakness that they do not have a bigger lead considering how much they been telling people to vote early. Hopefully this will lead to her voters not turning up on election day aswell, thinking the election is over.
Nolan Walker
and this is trump's best case scenario
stop pretending the US wants a god damned racist piece of shit as their president
Tyler Rodriguez
Why are you not in the army hohol????
Hunter Campbell
>I live in Florida and everyone here is nuts over Trump (pic related) dude you are a transplant faggot probably, secondly florida has gone blue the LAST 8 years and would have in 2000 if not for a judgement... too many spics you northern piece of shit
Parker Rivera
Kill yourselves reddit concern shills.
Zachary Diaz
Holy shit this entire thread is CTR
Easton Roberts
>FL >1.1 million extra white votes compared to 2012, compared to only +100k blacks and +300k Hispanics
Nope, FL is already Trump's. I don't know about PA.
Nolan Hall
designated shitposter
Jonathan Butler
Hispanics are largely registering as independent here in FL, and of Hispanics in Florida she wins them by 30 points
Very confused why Sup Forums thinks we're a solid red state. I think because of the tight early voting margin you guys think Trump will be carried by indies here, but you're in for some disappointment
Austin Watson
It's weird to think that if either side had fielded a different candidate this election would probably have been a walkover.
Jonathan Diaz
>Very confused why Sup Forums thinks we're a solid red state
Because of 1.1 million extra white voters compared to 2012. Florida is redder than Satan's cock this year.
Chase Gray
As it stands. This is the race.
What do you guys think?
Sebastian Collins
>German cuck whose already cucked wanting cuckoldry in other places because his personal cuckoldry apparently isn't enough to satisfy his cuck appetite
Christ almighty.
Grayson Rivera
You spill out your butthurt over Russia in every thread, if anyone is a shitposter it's you. Must be hard fighting for your country online instead of IRL.
