A lot of people in the media are telling us that Florida is in dead heat or that the Latino surge is so big that Donald Trump is going to lose.
All this shilling have affected even the betting markets but I'll show you why with numbers this is wrong.
You have seen many news about Latino turnout being 129% higher than in 2008. This is all over the media, stuff like this:
edition.cnn.com
nytimes.com
But look at this picture, this is the reality, yes Latinos have a huge surge in votes but also whites, most of the increase as a percentage of the electorate for Latinos comes from a huge drop in black turnout.
Whites remain at 70% of the electorate, this myth that whites can't decide the election in Florida is just wrong.
Then you might say, early voting is not indicative! Of the final result, this is false. There are a few states that early vote is not representative and this skews the sample. Even with this extremes the r squared is .69. For Florida is around .95.
Finally, have in mind that Republicans do a little bit better on same day vote than Democrats so this is a conservative calculation of the state of the race.
I looked around for how much Hispanic support Hillary and Trump are getting in Florida, the worst estimate for Trump is 30%, so I put that there, then I couldn't find for blacks but I found it for blacks for Obama in 2012, so I added that number.
Lastly for whites, I found data that Trump wins among whites from 30% to 25%. Giving him only 24%, he STILL wins the early voting so far.
So with all this assumptions that hurt him(Early voting numbers, lowest white support, lowest hispanic support and Obama levels of support for Hillary). He still wins just by demographics.
Unless there is a massive error in polling Trump has Florida in the bag.
thank you man, very well done
Bump, I early voted in FL last week
Why did I name it KN and TR. Obviously is Clinton and Trump.
Chilean Intellectuals
nice post, saving this to shill with
Media also makes the assumption that latino votes = hillary votes. Every spic i know is voting trump. Many such cases.
There could be a surge as a result of the surging spic population
I'm in Seminole county and we're kicking major ass here. Great post, other Texas.
Are they cuban? Cuban democracts are a rare breed.
I was under the impression that all the early voting and was in favour of the GOP. Which is huge because Democrats usually always do better in early voting?
I'm here in Volusia, but I've driven all over the east coast and it's nothing BUT Trump towns everywhere. Even in fucking Miami, I can count on hand the amount of Hillary signs I've seen
Trump is going to fucking annihilate Florida
Well they are probably right. Cubans vote more than other Latinos. Cubans lean Republican(only minority that does).
If I have to guess a lot of this new Hispanic surge doesn't come from Cubans but from Dominicans and other Latino groups in Florida.
What the media tells people isn't true. Sad!
That's right. Unless there really is some kind of pro-Hillary "silent majority", she's totally fucked here. Basically they'd have to create about 1 million fraudulent votes in order to take my state. We're going red.
You conglomerate a lot of ineffectual results to fit your model. The large latino vote as well as many registered republicans voting democrat will disprove your hypothesis.
She will win. He will lose.
i dont think she will win fl but if she does its over
PRAISE KEK
I'm from Port Orange and when I've been home all I've seen are rural roads with mountains of Trump signs. Out in Lake Mary, we've gotta be 80% Trump, maybe more. It's insane. I still haven't seen a Hillary sign anywhere, just a handful of bumper stickers on retards' cars (always old, Jewish women or stupid college students). As long as Miami is even close to 50/50, we've easily one. I can't imagine how she could possibly expect to win here.
If Florida and Pensylvania are called for Trump does that automatically assure he wins?
The large Latino vote is already considered in my model. What are you talking about.
Also Sup Forums changed my ID.
if he gets both PA and FL you can assume he wins
If either is called for him, he's won. He doesn't need both but it would be shocking if he lost both and won although he's got a shot at that scenario. I expect FL will 100% be red and PA is also very likely but not certain. If he wins Michigan, you know it's over without looking at any other state.
Pretty much. She would have to flip a middle America state like Nebraska or Arkansas
Just saying this sounds lile Bernie Math from back in the day.
"Because we are only so far behind we are actually winning"
Good shit user, thank you.
I do believe all the indicators show him winning Florida.
I actually live in Orlando and I have seen plenty of Hillary signs, even in the nice parts of Orlando. To be fair, I have seen plenty of Trump signs as well, but it doesn't seem like there are significantly more Trump signs. I also know plenty of people who have already early voted or are going to vote for Hillary. And these people are white. I really want to believe Trump will win Florida, but I'm trying to keep my expectations realistic.
tl;dr: he's orange
Cubans and rednecks all have common enemies: Mexicans and Jews. Mexicans speak poorfag Spanish and break laws and lowball rednecks out of jobs. Jews advance more and more illegals that are a thorn in everyone's sides.
In short, MAGA and start building those ovens.
Good. So that means a couple less hours of nail-biting suspense.
>WNL
>N
subtle
But he didn't use party alligances, he used demographics. If we use Florida polls affiliation calculations, Trump averages 88% of Republicans, 10% of democrats, and 51% of independents, which means he is still winning early voting by using party affiliation rather than demos.
You must be talking about either college students or niggers. She's not going to win any other demographic that can legally vote.
Florida doesn't give him a win. Florida makes him stay in the race... it is necessary for him to win it but without it he doesn't have a path to victory.
PA on the other hand would mean him basically winning the election. Not only because of the amount of votes in the electoral college but because if he is winning PA it means that he is winning in many other states(states and especially swing states are not probabilistically independent)
>all this shiilling
you know user, it's quite possible that Sup Forums i the epicenter of shilling
for
>trump
Too bad the Sanders4president subreddit was shut down
You all sound just like Bernouts right there
"The polls are wrong!"
"The early voting is wrong!"
"More people want to vote for Trump, they just don't want to admit it!"
You're going to lose.
And after you lose, you'll say
"The election was rigged!"
I am not sure if you are being ironic about posting about rigged Bernie elections or not, but I still wanted to give you a (you).
Legit
Alright, so you think the rigging was legit? So?
You're still gonna lose.
Based on these shady polls, he's closer in Florida than he is in many states he shouldn't be winning as e Republican. If he wins FL by even a few points and their leads are correct, he's likely won NV, NH, MI, ME, CO, MN, PA, WI, and maybe even OR, NM, and even some states in New England. If he wins FL by 10 points and their margins are all correct, she's going to get a 1980-style beatdown and no one who wants to continue their career will want to run against him in 2020.
You do realize you sound just like the people that said Brexit wouldn't pass.
Cubans are much more likely to be voting democrat this time around than republican, considering their candidate's efforts to crack down on immigration.
However, so many whites mean they're all hidden trump voters. It could mean more under-represented Hilary voters. If I was a bettin' man, I'd put money more on the latter.
In which state polls did project Hillary's lead by double digits and at the end Sanders won the state?
>If he wins by FL by 10 points
Oh my, you are desperate
>implying there will be ANY radical Muslims left after they see what the God Emperor does to ISIS
Let this goy teach you a think or two...
Ah, changing from "you are all paranoids" to "yeah, we are corrupt" in one post. It's pottery.
so you're a bernout shilling for hillary now eh.
doesn't matter. trump will win.
What makes you think you know my state? Obama only won FL by 0.88% against Romney and that was right after Romney's 47% video dropped. Floridians weren't excited to vote for weird Mormon but we're VERY excited to vote for Trump. Just wait and see. He's going to kick her ass here. Florida hates criminals and we put them down here. We don't waste our time dialing 9-1-1.
Cubans do not like mexicans.
Thanks for correcting the record faggot
Florida is going to be +4 Trump. The (((media))) and polling completely disregards the white vote, yet the white vote put Republicans firmly in control of Florida's House, Senate, and Governorship, as well as Republican mayors in nearly all major cities. The white vote is also surging.
This is a complete 180-reversal from what Florida was 20 years ago. Florida used to be a Democrat stronghold. Now it isn't. It's absolutely retarded to dismiss this fact, which the entire media apparatus and every polling agency currently does. They still think the Florida from 2000 and 2004 exists.
Compound that knowledge with a vanishing black vote and the ABSOLUTE lack of attendance at any of Hillary's rallies, Florida is not going to go her way.
Hillary held rallies in some of the same buildings Trump did. She consistently brought in 3x fewer people, or less. There is no enthusiasm for her in Florida. Not after she had the fucking dad of the Orlando shooter sit behind her.
I made a similar analysis in Nevada based on early voting(as you can see early voting correlates in Nevada especially well in part because 70% of the votes come from early voting), I didn't write it and I did the math only in my head... but it looks pretty grim for Trump. I wouldn't count Nevada for him.
One caveat though, in Nevada the data was party registration and not race. Doing quick math Trump needed to maintain something like 95% of the Republican vote, win independents by 20+(Romney won Independents by 7) and Hillary needed to only get around 85% of the Democrat vote for Trump to win in Nevada.
I like your thorough analysis, however I thought that we all knew that Florida was gonna be red the day Omar Mateen slaughtered 50 gays in a bar.
Didn't she even get booed in Florida today?
And her ads are fucking everywhere! At least two per commercial break on every local network.
today.yougov.com
Plug these numbers in, who's the winner?
Whose side are you on?
wee woo wee woo ..... Warning Kike alert. Houston this is not a drill....Wee woo wee woo... Warning Kike alert. Houston this is not a drill....
Nice.
Also, my parents who live in Florida are latino and they were hype to cast their vote for Trump.
I wouldn't assume latinos are voting Clinton at anywhere near the rate they did for Obama in 2008.
Kek be praised!
>Trump Will Win
I'm not counting too much on them either just because of their proximity to so many other Democrat states, most notably California. We don't need it by any means but it would be nice to see them go red. The only way we lose is if he loses to her by less than 1% in a whole shitload of states which I find hard to believe could possibly happen. He's almost certain to win the popular vote just based on demographics and the turnout he's going to get which I fully expect him to blow her out of the water on. All of her "Woman Card" voters are outweighed by "holy shit, she's a criminal/she rigged it against Bernie" losses.
Thanks Chile bro. Pretty sad that we need foreigners to actually lay our the facts and data, while the American Sup Forumsacks shitpost about /x/ nonsense and accuse everyone with genuine questions about Trump's path to victory in certain states a CTR shill.
I accept he's lost in NV, but I think assuming he grabs every other swing state, especially NH, NC, and FL, he'll be able to pick off either PA or MI. I'm from PA myself, and I think if he wins there it'll be a squeaker.
Aw shit, off by one
Based Latinos will save Hillary in Florida and the country from Drumpf.
trump will win florida
kek wills it
NICE
Post your analysis, sounds like you're speaking out of your asshole Chile faggot
If he doesnt win Nevada, it's getting really hard isnt it? with FL and NH he's on 264, its not enough...Losing Nevada basically means he has to flip PA or MI or MN or VA or CO...I dunno, doesnt seem that likely, but we can hope
This.
Everyone focuses on the "wall" and blindly assumes hispanics think this is bad.
Legals hate illegals.
Cubans love Trump.
Haitians love Trump.
Nearly half of the "Latino" vote is going to Trump.
The only thing that can stop Trump is blatantly obvious voter fraud.
And by blatantly obvious I mean on such a scale that it's impossible to hide.
We don't need to have foreigners do shit. You found solace in someone else agreeing with you. Doesn't count as evidence or fact. You're just trying to validate an opinion. The polls are inherently biased and rigged. They can hardly be considered legitimate references. No state is safe this election. NO STATE.
Add to this Trump saying he wants to STREAMLINE the immigration process to make it much faster. This resonates with legals who have family still out of the country.
Oh my fucking GOD bro tell me about it. I can't even watch TV, or even some Youtube vids anymore without that witches ads popping up all the time. I was honestly shocked when I saw at least ONE Trump ad on TV. It's such a complete disconnect to what's actually going on though. You rarely see Trump on TV but coming up and down 95 and through major cities you'll see nothing but Trump signs and fucking Trump billboards all over the place
Like I've said before, I can count on one hand how many Hillary signs I've seen in Florida and this includes Miami. I just went in to cast my early vote today in New Smyrna Beach, and the entirety of the parking lot area were Trump supporters and Trump signs. It was based as fuck
The election was rigged against Bernie. Try and keep up, Princess.
yaaa whoever said that whites couldn't pull this shit solely is full of it, we in this hoe
A Sanders supporter, some kid, got up on her stage and praised her for a minute, then started calling her a Wall Street shill and got taken down by her handlers.
The crowd she spoke to was no more than 300 people.
>Latino surge
Lol, Florida "Latinos" are Cuban. Cubans are not like Mexicans, they are a conservative bunch who hate illegals too.
Hispanic vote is up. You might live in the middle of bum-fuck nowhere where Trump is actually a viable option but you need to understand that Trump is slightly behind in key states.
>I just went in to cast my early vote today in New Smyrna Beach
My hometown is New Smyrna Beach. Small world.
1.) Fuckin checked
2.) I went through this same shit with Romney 4 years ago, I'm not taking these "Trump will flip NY for sure!" predictions seriously. If he wins it'll be either a 269 tie or between 270-280 EV. Screencap this and feel salty next week when he wins by the slimmest of margins and has his election delayed by recounts.
I would not be surprised if there were a bunch of people from Volusia county on this board. Gotta fill the void with lods of shitposting. It's an OK county but it's boring as fuck honestly if you're not into the races or the beach constantly. Bike Week is fun though
and nig vote is down
Nigs are bigger HRC supporters than Latinos for actual voters, so if nigs dropped for the benefit of latinos with no change in whites (barely any change) then it's good news for Trump.
Michigan
Nate aluminium's model gave Sanders a 1% chance of winning the state.
Did you read the thread? White vote is up by more nominally AND in Florida, for example, Cubans are not going to be voting for Hillary. Early voting stats by party don't show you who they voted for and I'm willing to bed more people cross lines to us than the other way around.
> yes Latinos have a huge surge in votes but also whites, most of the increase as a percentage of the electorate for Latinos comes from a huge drop in black turnout.
This is KEY
Black turnout is down more than 5%
Latino turnout is up not very much. Plus 30-40% of Latinos vote Republican...
No reason to panic folks.
Michigan
I'd surf there, and before my family moved up to Jacksonville, NSB used to be a lot sleepier. It's the only city I know of where a kid got bit by a shark and struck by lightning in a year.
>Unless there is a massive error in polling Trump has Florida in the bag.
"""""""""""""""""""Error"""""""""""""""""""""
Retard.
Sorry, was going to actually respond to you, but then I realized your reading comprehension is trash and you wouldn't understand anyway.
As they say on twatter, kys. :^)
Lol. Bernie was doomed from the start. Do you see how much money and time her campaign is pouring into previously 'safe' states? It's possible she wins, but it's definitely not a given.
Trump, by almost 200k.
The poll you show me there probably assumes 2012 levels of participation for blacks lol
Florida votes have a weird way of disappearing