As much as I want trump to win, I don't understand the electoral college system too much and it clearly looks like he's getting jewed.
Also CNN has started to call it a "close race" despite leading in the polls, which I think means that they're sure clinton has it in the bag, and are just encouraging more democrats to vote...
What are trump's actual chances on the 270 delegates?
Other urls found in this thread:
realclearpolitics.com
hillaryspeeches.com
twitter.com
ig.ft.com
ft.com
twitter.com
en.wikipedia.org
twitter.com
trump win win
praise kek
>What are trump's actual chances on the 270 delegates?
100% if my digits repeat
>What are trump's actual chances
The man turned Michigan into a toss up, and Wisconsin and Minnesota may soon follow. He has this shit on lock down.
FPBP
New York and California literally run the country.
This is much more what the state of the race looks like
There's a good chance that it'll be 269-269, provided Trump takes Florida. Although if that happens it's basically a Trump victory as the House will definitely break the tie in favor of Trump.
:^)
>people keep putting florida as red
hillary is winning florida right now
realclearpolitics.com
if hillary wins florida, trump cannot win. there aren't enough votes left.
The idea of the electoral college is it gives incentive for candidates to try to win over states like NC, FL, ME, MI etc, instead of just fighting over the major city centers where most of the population lives.
Here is a non-meme map of the state of the race. The likely Clinton victory is her winning PA, MI, and any one other state. The likely Trump victory is him winning in FL and NC and then either a) NV + NH, or b) any one of MI, PA, or VA.
About 5 blue states turned into toss ups the past few days. He has a very good chance of winning, probably about 70%. As long as this momentum in the polls keeps up, I legitimately believe he will win. This is coming from someone who three weeks ago would've said that Hillary was going to win. Pic related is what it'll look like if he wins all the toss ups.
...
Anybody want to see the future?
White people will be blamed extensively, and Trump will lose the popular vote by a couple of points, but he'll win the electoral college.
Riots will occur in most major cities, and Trump will be a one term President (by loss or by his own choosing when he sees the writing on the wall) who accomplishes nothing due to seething media hatred and Congress despising him. We will, however, do well in setting up the Supreme Court for the future.
>that link
>+1.2
None of those polls have a margin of error even close to that small.
>when Maine districts actually do something in an election
This user gets it. The states that he says are the keys for Trump must be watched very closely. They WILL decide this election, which is why it was a big deal when Michigan and Pennsylvania went gray the other day.
I need this to be real
How beautiful would it be for liberals to start celebrating because they won Florida, only to find out that Trump got Michigan and Pennsylvania?
PA may be big. Hillary's campaign is doing a big get-out-the-vote event in Philly on Monday.
Speakers:
>Hillary Clinton, President Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, Chelsea Clinton
They're literally going all-out on PA the day before election. And then flying Obama out to Michigan that night to give another speech.
Guys I just can't see him winning. Florida is going to hillary as the other dude said, virginia is going for hillary for some reason, idk man.
I promise, it's going to be hilarious.
Hey OP. If Trump wins any two of these five grey states, he will win the election. He's likely going to win Nevada. Then it's just down to stealing one of the others.
If he can't win two of those grey states, he will lose.
Florida won't go to Hillary and Virginia was always assumed to be going to Hillary.
Why was Virginia always assumed to go to Hillary? It was red for decades before Obama, and Hillary doesn't have the same support as Obama had.
Florida, Pennsylvania, and Colorado are all within very reasonable margins of error (leaning Clinton). On the flip-side, so are New Hampshire, Maine CD2, North Carolina, and Nevada (leaning Trump).
Realistically, his chances are rough. He needs a PA or a MI flip. Just look at this map.
>trying to talk reason into fundamentalist trumpkeks
good luck with that m90
being full of libtards for 8 years'll do that to you
Yuppie influx in northern Virginia. Immigration has ruined the state, and turned true Virginians into pawns for blue electoral votes by outnumbering them.
Pretty disgusting, actually. They ruin their own states, leave, then go and ruin a once great state. Kind of disgusting, actually. As a whole, Virginia is no longer the Virginia we once knew, and never will be ever again.
Same thing is happening to North Carolina, as well. Every election going forward, the map becomes more daunting for Republicans due to increased minority populations and liberal migration from mass population centers.
It's going to be similar to the 2000 election
>MI
>Blue
>CO
>Blue
Something's fucky with your map's math, it should be 268 Clinton to 270 Trump in that scenario.
Daily reminder that Clinton is losing badly, and the D+25 polls can't save her campaign.
>muh unskewed polls
...
>As much as I want trump to win
I've seen this a hundred times today...I know CTR can't afford to pay much anymore, so they must have the retards out
I know this isnt how our election system works but what happens if the pop vote is hugely different from electoral
I know weve had close pops that were more then electoral but nothings has ever happened
This is actually pretty close to what might happen.
Which is fucked. But there - nothing is ever as good as it seems.
It's true. I'm using the RCP averages to do my maps. The RCP average includes polls which oversampled democrats by huge margins, but the gray states are still growing more and more positive for Trump every passing day. Like I said, I legitimately see him winning if the elections were held today. It's just a matter of him holding onto this momentum.
Honestly, as long as he passes congressional term limits, pulls out of NAFTA, and appoints good SC judges, i'll consider his presidency a success
Get ready for your drubbing, Trump faithful.
WHAT THE FUCK?????????????????
DOES ANYONE SEE LE HAPPY MERCHANT?
I'm okay with this, the Supreme Court nominations are the most important part of the next term.
Words would not describe my elation if this turned out to be the map. Liberal media would go apeshit after Florida was called and true to his ways, the comeback king would sweep MI, PA and OH for maximum ass hurt
Fla is pink because he rates one poll that has trump at +7 an A. None of the other good polls come close to that and if you eliminate that one and aggregate the rest, most of which show clinton with a small lead, and its back to light blue.
I haven't been on pol for a few weeks. Everyone has the same sentiment about wanting trump to win despite bleak changes.
Can I get a smaller size? My bandwidth can't handle that graphic
>weeks
I've seen the same opening line three times today, CTR
In CNN language,
Trump losing badly = Trump down slightly
Trump losing = tied
Tied = Trump winning
Trump up slightly = Trump landslide
So now the guy you were shilling for for months is all of the sudden skewing his results in favor of Trump? Jesus fuck, you're as bad as that guy who wrote that Huffington Post article attacking Nate Silver.
The math is fucked on this one. Trump would be winning in that scenario.
If Arizona votes Clinton then I hope that when she fully opens the border that Mexicans fuck them up first.
> Nebraska on Slight Middle
Half the people in Nebraska drive breeder minivans, say muslims should be sent to jew camps, love the wall idea, believe the poor are a waste of space and anyone who supports them are scum, with some confederate "southern pride" stamps and use of the word "nigger" to decribe everyone.
Needs to be redder. CNN's a fucking joke.
If Trump wins I need it to be as close as possible for maximum butthurt.
He just has to win Pennsylvania
OR
Wisconsin
OR
Michigan
OR
Virginia
He doesn't need to win them all, that's the beauty, just one of those states, it's nailbitingly close. This is my prediction
I don't understand how the american politics works.
Is this the actual numbers, as of right now? Because if so, it should be over for trump, yah?
Blue Arizona was a meme. People here talk a lot about skewed polls, but that shit was beyond fucked. Practically "I saw Trump signs in NY so I am pretty sure he is going to win NY" tier.
Not really. That map has a lot of grey states that shouldn't be grey. The idea of AZ, GA, IA, and OH being toss-ups at this stage is a joke. See my map from the start of this thread for a more accurate depiction of what is really feasible:
See all that gray area? See that Hillary doesn't have 270? See that these numbers are based on polls that oversampled Dems by +15? It's not over. Far from it. I can almost guarantee that one of those blue states will turn red on November 8th.
This is based on polls. Election day isn't until November 8th.
Most of the gray states will end up going to Trump.
...and all the swing states.
Hillary can lose all of the marginal states and still win. If she wins any of the swing states she wins. For Donald to win he needs to win every single swing state and somehow poach a state she's commonly predicted to win.
Unless something drastic happens in the next few days it is highly unlikely Donald Trump will win.
>Ohio is a safe trump state
>PA, VA, and MI are toss ups
>Less than a week away and for sure Nevada going Blue Trumptards still think he has a chance of winning
Pic Related. This is his best chance. As it stands today he doesn't look like he is going to win Florida. He doesn't look like he is going to win New Hampshire. This is his only path. He cannot do it.
Define swing states? Because Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan ARE the swing states.
Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Florida are strong Trump leaning, the swing states are the ones I mentioned, and like I said, Trump just needs to win ONE of them. Look at my map, that's how he could win without any of them but if he gets one of those four I mentioned, it's clear victory.
>georgia
>arizona
>iowa
are you silly or something? none of those are swing states
RCP poll average for Nevada has him up by two.
>muh oversampling
Can you just shut the fuck up, Trump isn't even doing that bad now. There's no reason to lie.
Polls have shillary winning in all 4 of those states by at least 75%. Not going to happen.
This is the only real outcome.
Ohio was a toss-up, but has shifted clearly toward Trump. Hard to see him losing it while surging. PA, VA, and MI are toss-ups because they are currently shifting toward Trump. No one gives a shit that numbers in Ohio are close because of Hillary-leaning polls from a month ago.
I know everyone likes to troll with retarded maps and all, but in case any unaware people want to know the actual situation. Pic related.
This is based upon RealClearPolitics' poll averages for each state. The candidate has been given the state if the are at least three points higher than their opponent. Neither candidate is up at least three points in gray colored states.
These percentages are RCP averages
>Ohio
>Trump +2.7
>"STRONG TRUMP LEANING"
>Iowa
>Trump +3.0
>"STRONG TRUMP LEANING"
>Nevada
>Trump +2.0
>"STRONG TRUMP LEANING"
>FLORIDA
>Clinton +1
>"STRONG TRUMP LEANING"
>Virginia
>Clinton +4.3
>"SWING STATE"
>Wisconsin
>Clinton +5.5
>"SWING STATE"
>Pennsylvania
>Clinton +2.8
>"SWING STATE"
>Michigan
>Clinton +5.0
>"SWING STATE"
What sort of bizzarro polls are you looking at.
>Frank Luntz says Hispanic numbers are up extremely high in southern border states
>Frank Luntz says the GOP will need a miracle to come back from early voting margins in the state on Twitter
twitter.com
Face it. Hispanics were under represented in almost all polls, even according to Frank, and they are decimating Trump is the southern states. States he should easily have in the bag are toss ups. We have three days until we vote and Trump is losing. Its over. I am sure you will just reply calling me CTR tho so w/e
THIS SHILLING PREYS ON THE ILLOGICAL ASSUMPTION THAT ALL GREY AREAS TEND TO FALL 50/50 one way or the other.
>Not knowing about skewed polling
>Not realising that a lot of Trump's support comes from first time voters
>Not realising that Brexit polls the day of the vote had Remain up 10%.
The small, quiet rural village of you.
>the states with the most electoral votes are blue
What a coincidence.
>Michigan, Clinton +5
>toss up
Where are you guys getting this crap
SUPREME JUSTICE LORETTA LYNCH
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yeah, if he won all the other swing states. And polls have Clinton up in all those states you mentioned.
>skewed polling
>my magical intuition trumps the consensus of professional statisticians
>Not realising that Brexit polls the day of the vote had Remain up 10%.
Proof
When you take into consideration the over sampling of Democrats you'll actually see they're dead heats. Democratic strongholds being dead heats is a very good sign.
>The states where people who come in contact with other people are blue
What a coincidence.
>What are trump's actual chances
Very low. He has one or two very narrow methods to win, whereas Hillary has about 40.
>Trump has a shot if I slap on an imaginary +5 to whatever polls show him down
>muh anecdote about brexit which isn't even true
Oversampling of Democrat voters isn't some new conspiracy, anyone with a fucking nut in their head knows generally they are oversampled for Dems.
They didn't. Its just assblasted Trumptards trying to find excuses
There was one particular poll that had it at plus +10 points. The rest of them had it much closer, and a week out from the election most polls were predicting a leave victory.
Electoral votes are based on house of reps and senators . Bigger states tend to have more people in house of reps and senate because of their massive population (look at texas) . Big states tend to be blue in nature (california for example) . So usually it ends with blue states end up having the most electoral votes .
I'm some dirty wet back in some shit hole town and I know your stupid fucking voting system then you
Guess we'll have to settle for 99%.
>All the statisticians are wrong
>Just trust me I know better
where is your evidence
Schizophrenic.
>anecdote about Brexit which isn't even true
My pleasure
ft.com
Right there faggots, now what?
see
More like 65% you smelly dumb reddit tier scum
>twitter.com
What im confused about nevada is that clinton is adead 72% in clark and ahead in washoe which is the second biggest county.
twitter.com
Together they made 86% of the voters in the 2012 general,
however the article also said that clinton had a 46,000 lead , which means that 14% of the state voted so much in favor of trump that it cut into the lead of 72000 from the 86% by 26000
votes
IS THIS FISHY TO FUCKING ANYONE ELSE
>twitter.com
What im confused about nevada is that clinton is adead 72% in clark and ahead in washoe which is the second biggest county.
twitter.com
Together they made 86% of the voters in the 2012 general,
however the article also said that clinton had a 46,000 lead , which means that 14% of the state voted so much in favor of trump that it cut into the lead of 72000 from the 86% by 26000
votes
IS THIS FISHY TO FUCKING ANYONE ELSE
Kek, not this Unskewed polls shit again. Didn't you guys learn from the last time?
1) Certain polls target specific demographics. These are then weighed against census numbers.
2) Not all party members vote. A candidate wins by pulling more traditional non voting party members to vote. If Obama is winning you can expect more self identified Democrats.
I've been a trump supporter since late 2017 and to be honest.. trump looks like he staged this
I've been a lifelong trump supporter ever since he went down those escalators, but he's looking desperate and doing whatever he can to gain attention. Very narcissistic. He lost me.
Here are Florida's Voter Registration stats (via Sec of State). Dem increase in registration is dramatically lower than redpill. Black votes down 3% already there. Applying ABC left cuckold poll stats to these numbers, dems lose Florida by over 300k votes, over 2.5%. Hispanic vote margin Dem over Rep is about 230k, while black vote loss is over 385k. Even if all "Others" vote entirely for the pedo demon, they still can't touch the deficit. In other words, no fucking way in hell Clinton wins Florida. Penn, Mich, and Wisconsin don't have early voting (just absentee and they even allow you to change those votes). That's huge because the Comey thing hit just recently, plus all other revelations. Those are going to go Red. In shot, Kek landslide is imminent.
en.wikipedia.org
None of the pundits were predicting a leave victory. The margins were very similar to the Hillary Trump race currently, ie winning in online polls, losing in the majority of telephone ones.