Do people actually think Trump will win?
This is a serious question, I've been scanning the internet for a few hours and it looks like this is the only place people think Trump actually has a chance of winning.
Is it just one troll who's trying to lift morale, which is in turn causing a domino effect, and everyone is posting about Trumps future victory.
I would appreciate a realistic response from an American regarding the likelihood of Trump being elected.
He's probably got around a 40-50% chance, slightly higher than the 538 odds.
No.
He will not be permitted to win.
Forgot to say, if Trump does win its due to Florida being red (looks somewhat likely), Nevada being red (somewhat less likely) and a surprise flip of a poorly-polled, assumed blue state (NH, MI, WI,CO etc). All the TRUMP LANDSLIDE people are as delusional as the Blue Texas memers
>Is it just one troll who's trying to lift morale
That's not what trolling is.
And no, I don't really think we will win, but I hope I'm being wrong.
> would appreciate a realistic response from an American
No one asked you Italy.
Thanks, I follow a bunch of instagram accounts and am reading the_donald & /pol and I can't believe how vocal people are about him winning.. From what I've taken in, there's very little chance.
No problem. People assume he is virtually guaranteed to lose because there have been very few polls all election season in which he was close. However:
1. Trump's best polling lately comes from the last week or so
2. This is a different election from 2012 with two new candidates, and most polls are using a model weighting similar to the 2012 electorate. It was much easier to compare 2008 to 2012 because Obama was running in both and the Republican candidates didn't etablish much of an identity beyond "Not the Negro"
This
Yes.
Because we're going to make you rig it.
Its also worth point out that all metrics except gener election polling (retweets, facebook supporters, Youtube likes/dislikes, rally size, signs/bumper stickers, TV airtime, that AI that detects popularity, Google searches, and primary votes) show some degree of Trump victory. Any one of these is probably meaningless, but taken in aggregate like that, they become hard to ignore. Thats why I'd buff him up a bit from Nate Silver's pure polls models
>Is it just one troll who's trying to lift morale, which is in turn causing a domino effect, and everyone is posting about Trumps future victory.
Pretty much. Most of the users here aren't old enough to vote anyways.
Optimism +retardation = 50% chance
Thanks for all the responses, it's hard to get a realistic idea as I don't really follow any pro-hillary sites/platforms and the media makes Trump out to be scum, as does everyone on social media. Meanwhile, on this corner of the internet everyone's convinced he has already won.
Confusing shit.
i think he has a chance.
by comparison, i thought brexit had NO CHANCE.
He only wins if he can snatch Florida, North Carolina, Nevada AND New Hampshire.
So what's the go with voting there?
When does everyone cast their vote and when are results?
I'm leaving Croatia in a few days and I'm afraid I'll be on a long flight when the results come in
I agree. I would say Trump winning is more likely than Brexit succeeding. But I don't know much about British politics.
Agree somewhat, but I think NC is pretty much wrapped up for Trump. He could also afford to lose NV and/or NH with a surprise win from CO or MI (both have encouraging early voting results). But you outline probably the most likely path
I want him to, but he is in an uphill battle.
The best answer is that it's unlikely but still well within the realm of possibility.
Most statistical models and betting sites place his odds at anywhere from 1 in 10 to 1 in 3.
People acting like Trump is most likely to win are delusional, but so are the hill shills and r/politics fags who think that Hillary can't possibly lose. A 2 in 3 chance of winning doesn't mean it's "in the bag" for your candidate, you wishfully thinking fuckwits.
As of now, Hillary is winning. New Hampshire is in favor of Hillary app. 60 to Trump's 40%. Nevada is pretty shaky as well
Go to Sup Forums and they talk about how good movies are bad
Go to Sup Forums and they talk about how good records are bad
Go to Sup Forums and they support trump.
Its what this site does.
Over half the "trump supporters" here are voting for Clinton, they're just having fun playing along with the contrarian bullshit Sup Forums exists for. Sup Forums fags like nickel back. Sup Forums fags like mean girls
Also note, 538 does NOT consider early voting, and a lot of people in Nevada are voting Clinton via early voting, similar to the 2012 election
Not sure what you are referring to. Early votes or polls?
If early votes, Clinton is seriously in trouble based on the decreased black turnout and drops from Obama-level early voting.
If polls, I believe the RCP average shows Trump up around 1% in NH. I haven't seen early voting from that state, however.
NV will be interesting, since it is the only state I'm aware of with early voting results that look questionable for Trump
if he doesnt the only chance we have is to go outright white nationalist and secede
i dont even hate blacks, i just dont want to love in a third world shithole
Lets face it, chances have always been slim. But everyone here believes in him and the common sense of Americans.
Besides, worst case scenario we were on the news, we had our hour of glory, we did our share for this election, no more shills, and peace and prosperity return to our board of polish-inspired paella cooking.
I don't know what Sup Forums you visit...
All the state polls are his now.
Even fucking new Hampshire!!!
I can't believe it!!
Fuckers gonna win
Im pretty sure Florida is going to be red. What about PA?
If the election could be fair, he would win. Democratic operatives will successfully rig the results in some counties. Trump needs a landslide to win, but after the dem rigging it will look close.
If I was betting I'd say Trump will win. And in a way I am, selling all stocks tomorrow, buying them all back in 3 days regardless of who wins.
>if Trump wins it's cool
>if Trump loses it's rigged
sound logic
At this point, it might be Clinton's. Florida has a significant portion of Hispanics voting for Clinton and Early voting shows Clinton leading Trump. I think Pennsylvania is going for Clinton as well, since there aren't any early votings and 538 shows Clinton leading app 70-80%