Memes aside, what are his chances of winning?

Memes aside, what are his chances of winning?

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realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
youtube.com/watch?v=dw7q_3cesgw
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html
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34%

35%

100%

Enough for making CTR and Shitlery shiver, so about 30%.

Less than zero. youtube.com/watch?v=-1HymVgjCZQ

0%. Either he wins or he doesn't and he doesn't.

68.5%

75%

I pull that number out of thin air gut feeling.

If he wins NH, 95%
If he loses NH, 15%
NH holds all

Either 0 or 100%, depending on whether he wins or not.

my last digits will tell you

Dubs says 100% If not 50%, GO VOTE

100% or 0%

40%
>calle

77%

50%

Either he wins or he doesn't.

98% isn't enough
how about 100%?

110%

t. Trump General

Nice!

35%
nate silver unfucked his shit

Checking myself

Well, this makes sense

Holy fuck checking myself again

better than ever

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

The will of KEK is clear, 100% he wins.
All the dubs belong to Trump!
Praise KEK!

youtube.com/watch?v=dw7q_3cesgw

Fucking 0. Stay mad drumpfkins.

not very high after the investigation being dropped. stop deluding yourselves. there is a chance, yes, but the odds are against him

oh shit

>someone rolls a 100
>haha, Drump has 0% chance of winning!

It's better with a 98

He's down by 1.8 points according to poll averages:
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

An aggregator of political scientists' predictions gives him a 35% chance
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Well, betting markets are pretty good predictors, and according to them he has an about 16% chance as of now.

This.
Nate Bronze's assessment is pretty much the state of affairs.
>Clinton is ahead, but Trump is closing in.
>NH is literally a wildcard
>Florida will be a strong bell weather, if it goes blue, Trump is done.
>If it goes red, race goes from 1/3 to 2/3.
>HuffPost model is a fucking joke, Ohio is going to Trump

Trump could win, but it will be a narrow victory. Even better, he might win the electoral but lose the popular.
The liberal butthurt will be immense.

Bout 30%

If you take Closet Conservatives into account, maybe 40%

They're pardoning a lot of felons and bussing them to polling stations. Plus the usual democrat rigging.

I'd say he has zero chance personally.

The machine is too big and strong in the U.S. to let an anomaly like this through.

0%, no way the people controlling the most powerful country on earth are going to risk their plans because of an election.

Agreed. NH is early predictor of how things will roll.

Still say 50/50.. coin flip for POTUS now. Was 70/30 Trump until Comey

~20%

Highest possible would be 99% so 98% is good enough

100% KEK check

100%

Damn... almost greatness there..

70-80% if nothing gets rigged

Trump will win

How? That state holds 4 delegates, its not a swing state and firmly in hillarys pocket.

He has already won in my view.

2 positive trend lines for him:
a) He isn't a traditional Republican for free trade -- and even cuts into Dem vote on that issue.
b) Cost of Affordable Care Act unacceptable - living standards in decline / serviced by debt.

2 negative trendlines for HRC
a) The Crooked Hillary meme has been confirmed, confirmed and confirmed... Knocking out truly moral Democrats, Bernie supporters, et al.
b) Obama Coalition isn't revved up by her - black turnout will be down/not as partisan, same for Hispanics.

The evidence is there peeps! Trump is in MN and MI at the end of the campaign! That tells you everything!

The dubs have spoken

This right here. If it was a fair election based on the popular vote then Trump would win, in my opinion, by 5 points easy.

You are correct it is usually locked blue.. but Trump has a chance there. He turns that one red and it looks good for him to hit 270.

yeah that's a good point. we don't want to use ambiguous meme magic here.

I think he won't win

take this dice. roll a five or six and trump is elected. anything else is eternal pain.

will you roll?

>They're pardoning a lot of felons
only in VA, a state that was already predicted to go blue, and which Trump's campaign pulled out of months ago

He alrdy won.
It doesnt metter if he will be alected or not, every move she makes will be under a magnifying glass.
The damage is done, they wanted to keep the people saparatrd and now the tear is too big to fix, trust in the system is broken.

Just a matter of time before america will break apart.

50%

Trump is going to win.

Bout tree fiddy

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html

70% if he takes FL
0% if he doesn't

This. If he doesn't have Florida as you're watching the updates on Tuesday just turn the TV off, he lost.

I'm from Florida my entire family is voting for him. If we lose this state I'm fucking gone, it's too damn hot here and if this state goes blue for the third time in a row I will be done with this shit state.

>When the memes are out and all you can say is that Nate Cardboard genuinely holds the keys to victory.

Feels strange man

Trump has already altered the discourse of public conversation. He has exposed the globalist agenda to your mom and dad. Trump has already won.

Silver says 35%. I think he's covering his ass, because he's been wrong about Trump before and it stung. If there's an upset Trump victory, he can point to his model and say it's not CuckTR.

Realistically - and based on where we're having this conversation you know who I support, so I'm being honest - Trump has the best chance he's ever had to win, but it's still only like 20% at most.

You have to consider that Clinton's firewall, or minimum delegates, are so much closer to the threshold without her saying a word. All she needs to do is perform strongly in one or two battleground states and it's all over.

If it makes you feel better, Trump has three things working for him:

1) he is pulling non voters. See Brexit. Non voters don't self-report, and they don't get factored into most political science predictions. But they do show up at rallies, and extensive news coverage tells us there are millions of non voters who are feeling Trump. If they actually come out, we could see an upset like Bernie's in Michigan, in one or two states considered solidly blue, and that changes the game.

2) Hillary supporters are not excited the way Obama supporters were - even in 2012. She is getting a huge Latino draw, but the only states with enough Latinos to go from red to blue are Arizona and maybe Florida. Texas is no longer shaky. Arizona could really fuck Trump up if its Latinos go blue. Florida is obviously super important to both sides.

3) the Are You Kidding Me effect. Trump voters in vocally liberal families, campuses, communities, and counties don't self report, but they *might* vote. In places like Massachusetts, where I live, the battle is already lost. That doesn't mean Ohio is. Even Pennsylvania's independents and Reagan democrats may outweigh the Karl Kucks. There is no question that a silent demographic exists. The problem with silent majorities is that they are very hard to quantify, so we really can't know about states like New Hampshire until Election Day.

Add NC to that list too... either one of them blue? Carry your azz to bed.. ugh

35% il a pretty good estimate imho.

95%

>betting markets are pretty good predictors

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I think there is legitimate reason to suspect media of skewing polls so maybe 60/40 Trump to win. I also think Trump has a lot of quiet voter support, meaning people who intend to cast a ballot for him but not willing to advertise that intent.

>I don't know how betting markets work

If it was anyone, but the Swedeshill I would have probably taken you seriously.

Yuge!

Trump is the 45th president.

about as good as my chance of getting dubs

66.6%

I would say 50%. Hillary is a really terrible candidate considering she has been doing this for over three decades and has everyone shilling for her, the media, celebrities, politicians, the 1%, etc. She is still basically tied with Trump.
Trump has actually a lot of energy in his campaign. Packed rallies, merchandise with record-sales, YT videos with much more views, more followers on social media (even though he is the nominee of a party that is demographically older), more small-donations, etc.
There may be some huge shy-Trump effect because it is not really socially-acceptable to support him. Back in the primaries he did relatively poorly in the caucuses because people have to openly show who they support.
Since Hillary is slightly leading, a lot of her supporters are going to stay home because they believe she has it in the bag.

This city don't know what's coming.
She doesn't feel the heat.
This city won't know what hit her,
what knocked her out into the street.
This city's thinkin that's over,
she's already fast asleep,
so I'm breaking out of here tonight.

100%

Around 100

Hillary has always overpolled and Trump has always under polled, and with everything within the margin of error expect The Monster Vote

Optimism + Stupidty = 50%

43.7562799866422344515183859%

5%

My last two digits are his chances

We lost

I know you guys won't believe me but the answer is

1 in 3, according to local bookies (New Orleans area).

Six gorillion beautiful jewish babies.

>Even better, he might win the electoral but lose the popular.
>The liberal butthurt will be immense.

pls god let this happen. i'll have enough JOM to last a year.

90%

>concern trolling

why do you even try anymore holy shit

Guys, what if Gary Johnson won his home state? No one would get to 270. We need Johnson to win New Mexico. Otherwise it goes to Clinton