Nevada Democrats Leading in Early Votes

Is there any chance of Trump winning Nevada?

Apparently Democrats lead against him by 42,000

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democrats usually win early votes in swing states even when they lose the state.

he can win without it

Describe to me ONE fucking scenario in which Trump wins without NV. It's not happening. If he wins, it's going to be by the skin of his fucking teeth, and NV is absolutely imperative.
He isn't winning PA and he isn't winning VA. He needs OH, NC, FL, NH, AND NV all together to win. That's the only chance he has.

Also I don't know what the fuck CO is doing red in your map OP.
Things are looking really fucking shitty for Trump right now, it's basically hopeless.

>Texas
>red

>leaf
>not a shit post

nice get 000

I thought it was 70,000 yesterday? He has already begun to gain ground?

NV is 6 electoral votes.
Chill the fuck out you idiot.

fpbp, also checked

6 electoral votes that he won't win without.
Do you not understand that in the absolute BEST CASE SCENARIO, this is the best he can do? It would take a fucking miracle at this point.

early voting stats can't legally be released before election day because they may affect the result.

you been played shill

spic vote is up like 103%

NV is gone

That doesn't tell you who they voted for and doesn't include independents

I'm going to bet you right now that Trump wins one or both of Pennsylvania or Michigan on Tuesday.

$100 bucks homie, screen this, won't happened.

Clinton blowout, Sup Forums tears, and I support Trump and want him to win just being realistic.

This. The map I posted is so INCREDIBLY unlikely to happen. He needs literally ALL of those swing states, if even ONE of them goes blue, it's over. It's 90/10, realistically.

He's probably leading in Colorado. On Friday, he was only down 0.3% (6565 votes), and all last week Republicans mailed in ~6100 more votes per day than Democrats.

denverpost.com/2016/10/24/colorado-2016-ballot-tracker-a-look-at-mail-ballot-return-data/

This I was in PA last week driving to Pittsburgh and seen trump shit all over even in the city. Not to mention Philly's public transport is fugged due to a strike and Heinz in shutting down and going to Mexico. Prior to that the ((polls)) were tied, Hes going to win PA.

>SC pink
>CT not dark blue

stop posting this in every thread

>Also I don't know what th
Ist Michigan a toss up now according to RCP? Why else is Hillary and king nigger and jay z over there?

Trump cannot win, and could never have won.

Because ghettoheads don't vote without being prodded.

Chance? Absolutely.

That is literally all we know.

The skin of teeth argument is sensitive to voter fraud of course. This election cannot be won by the Democratic Party given the existence of the fraud, however, the risk is it being stolen.

Latino wave incoming.

Drumpf has no chance.

>Florida voting Trump
kek

HAHAHAAHA FLORIDA BEING BLUE

Dudeweed state is dead even with demon/repub votes. Less than 1% split and more than 70% of the state votes through early voting. Trump has a lead among independents in almost every poll even if rigged.

Colorado is going red baby, it just doesn't seem like it should since its a liberal stronghold. But the liberals there, HATE hillary and feel the Bern.

>2012

Nevada is democrat land. that's just a fact. but to assume all those 50k democrats that voted are actually voting for Hillary Clinton is a massive fucking stretch.

I'm registered as an Independent, and I have never voted for a democrat once. I know people who are registered republicans that routinely vote for democrats.

sometimes when you're younger you register to vote one way and then just never really change it. Sometimes a moderate comes along, like Trump, and you decide to vote for him.

Don't these bitches have husbands who teach them about politics?

why is the graph out of date?

>march

My grandmother voted early, she is a registered Democrat and voted for Trump.

My mother voted early, she is a registered Democrat and voted for Hillary.

I'm voting on the 8th for Trump.

Based on this, Trump will win.

Help me out here Sup Forums

Real talk, what state has a better chance of going red if you had to pick just 1.


NC or Florida?

Give me some actual reasons, I don't want hopes but actual fucking reasons.

Trump is going to win Michigan.

Whoever made this map might be retarded.

Zero chance NC goes blue. It's nothing but Trump support from the mountains to the coast.

>sample is 2/3 women
>Trump still wins
Hillary btfo.

Honestly at this point I think anyone who thinks Trump doesn't win at least Pennsylvania is a complete fucking retard.

Every time this is posted, it ignores independents. Who is leading with (I)? Trump by 12 points. Trump is probably already in the lead.

Not at all, it's 100% believable.

He literally hasn't won a single poll. Elections don't work on feels user.

Choose any one of these grey states to win. Florida and Colorado are tough calls, but for reasons are going red this election.

>Colorado predominately votes early (>70%)
>Even split between d/r
>Trump leads among independents

>Florida has a miniscule lead
>Trump like romney will rock day of voting
>Latino turnout is undercut by lack of blacks
>some blackies have fled to trump

Spot-on. Chapel Hill is about the only area I've seen that's a solid Hillary holdout, but everywhere else is Trumptown.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the PA polls have been heavily skewered towards Democrats and women, so it's not a shock to see Hillary leading in those polls.

>colorado
>red

Brexit. That is all.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the Pennsylvania electorate is heavily scewed towards Democrats and women.

Did we not learn from the unscewing the polls hype?

If you dont believe me, dispute me with facts. I presented mine.

Did the basic red and blue. I believe he can flip MI but kept it blue as I have him winning PA and didn't want to make it overkill.

Wrong

Not just that, there are bus strikes and police presence at polling stations, which only needs to decrease democrat voter turnout by 3% for Trump to win.

>all democrats voted for hillary
cnn logic

Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Michigan cannot go red. Trump's only chance is NV + NH, which according to early voting in NV, might be tough. Hopefully the polls are right.

Forgot to mention CO possibly going red.

You are wrong. Red state, but Philadelphia fucks it up and they end up blue...it is similar to Illinois.

Wait.... That's it? the spic surge they talked about was 100%+? There is no way it's that close.

This is what it's going to look like. Maybe he'll get Maine's second district, but it won't matter either way. Going to be a Clinton blowout.

Lack of public transit in one city in a huge state will not decrease democrat turnout by 3%.

The logic is that crossover between the two is about equivalent, which is what the polling has suggested.

hi nate

Holy fuck do I hate Clark and Washoe counties.

The entire rest of the state fucking hates their guts because they gave US Harry Reid.

t. A pissed Nevadan

Romney was an establishment shill that inspired literally nobody. Trump and him are polar opposites. Trying to skew polls to get Hillary above Obama turnout and shit like polling 60% women just makes them laughable. Polls have every incentive now to undercount Trump support. The pollsters are fucking donating to Clinton. ABC said he gained 10 points in a fucking week, lol, you're a fucking retard for believing their shit.

Why do you think Colorado can't go red? Please, dispute the actual facts of the matter. Everything suggests Colorado is going red. I laid out my argument why to you.

Sounds like it to me. Considering how Obama won Nevada by about 70k in 12 and Democrats dominate early voting, as well as the polls and Trump's independents numbers, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Nevada red.

Media misrepresentation is all that it is.

Again, I don't know what drugs you kids are on, but Clinton is NOT winning NC.

Doesn't that still mean the state as a whole with Philly included has more Dems than Republicans? California is a red state too outside the cities for fuck sakes.

polling also suggests Trump has a 2% lead in NV

Florida has a huge wave of pissed-off Hispanics voting. The hurricane delayed them a bit, but the drubbing is coming and nothing can stop it.

>early voting stats can't legally be released before election day because they may affect the result.

They aren't being released, goof.

this is polling based on number of ballots received from people registered to a party already before voting, not a count of individual votes.

so these projected results are assuming party line ballot returns.

You mean Republican Cubans? Good.

I mean does anything really matter if he gets PA?

>Red Colorado
>Red Nevada

Easy way to triple your money in 3 days then, but you're not going to make that bet. You want him to win it but deep down you know it's hopeless.

Police presence at the polls will.

Yeah, unfortunately this is how it will probably play out. After a year-long movement, we're gonna end up with 4 years of the same. However, Trump's success in Iowa gives me hope for other states, such as Nevada. Many uneducated whites who voted for Obama (and are registered dems) may vote for Trump. This could explain Nevada's discrepancy with the polls and early voting.

polls dont mean shit anyway. You know how they poll right? they phone areas and ask them who they're voting for and then establish averages based on that, but if they want to, they can call areas where they already know the dominant political leaning in advance (certain communities/neighborhoods are historically always democrat or republican) so if they want to show Hillary winning they can poll areas known to be heavily Dem and paint whatever picture they like.

Why would they skew the polls? They might want to over represent Dems so that Republicans think it's not worth voting at all if they assume the Dems have it by a huge margin. Alternatively they might show Republicans leading by a slim margin to motivate more Dems to go out and vote because the margins so narrow that their votes will make a meaningful difference.

Polls are orchestrated to tell a story, they aren't a perfectly accurate representation of reality.

Florida Hispanics = Cubans =60% Republican

ALL Republicans are voting Trump.
SOME Democrats are voting Trump.
MOST Independents are voting Trump.

TRUMP WILL WIN.

Dems always do better in early votes.

And you bet your fucking ass the Reno shit last night helped him in a weird way.

Shouldnt you be sleeping? you have high school in the morning

>concern trolling

Nice try CTR

He may win VA. The only way he doesn't is if every democrat in Richmond/Henrico comes out to vote for Hillary. Trump has heavy support all up and down the state. I've called to survey people for my job.

Cubans are a large portion of florida hispanics. They are the republican diversity butter.

I think 538 has NC, FL, NV basically tied, but it doesn't take into account early voting. The prediction markets are showing Hillary in all 3.

>Michigan
>Blue

Doing door to door in Denver. I could have confused the place for South Dakota it was so red.

Trump will probably win cali he'll be the first since reagan

Only in South Florida. Most of the rest are Puerto Rican who are democrats like other northern transplants.

Sigh

Phone numbers are generated by a version of a random number generator. There is careful consideration on objectivity. This is statistics not feels.

And then count the independents

Thank you for correcting the record

Can you foreigners just fuck off, you know nothing about American politics and I'm genuinely bummed out now that Comey has exonerated Clinton. Before that I thought he could eek out a win, but the news on Monday is just gonna be people praising Clinton.

Hampton Uni, a BLACKED school has trump ahead in the state. It's leaning blue, but still well within play.

I just can't believe it, user. How do you figure?

Post a comparison with 2012 numbers, if the number of Dems went up then Clinton is doing better, if it went down then Trump is doing better.

That's the logical way to measure it.

Fuck off dude, you retards are pissing me off too much. Has Trump ever lead a poll in Virginia? Tim Kaine was the GOVERNOR of Virginia.

Michigan hasn't been red since '88, and I doubt Trump can change that. Minority populations hold more voting power than auto workers and others who are dissatisfied with the Obama administration