Nate is at full scale DAMAGE CONTROL

Nate (((Silver))) just updated his chances. Trump is at 36.2% chance of winning.

Lmao
I said this will happen the other day
.1% to 4 then 11 then 22 now 36.
Tomorrow will be 49.9 or 50.1 just so he can say he was right

Even though at 0.1% chance of winning there is still a chance to win hence why hes using chance not saying x will win

Pa nv co mi nh wi me va will all be red

red is the easiest path
tossup is where Trump can also win

I never understood how anyone could take this seriously.
I mean it's fucking probability, it'll always be right.
"Hey, you said candidate X would have only 10% of winning and he won"
"Yes, that's why I left 10%".
You can't ever be wrong with that system, as long as you don't put a candidate at 0%.
I'm actually triggered by the stupidity of this.

Nevada is not going red. What state can replace NV?

Notice that Nevada is blue now. Nate is just going with the raw numbers, as best as they can be interpreted. He's basically saying that Hillary should win, but that it's not going to be a landslide. This is another way of saying that Trump should have won against a historically unpopular candidate, except he fucked up his own campaign so much by needlessly insulting people. Thin-skinned faggot.

Reminder that Nate Silver switched to "Chance of winning" to stop the demoralization of Hillary voters against data that clearly favored Trump.

Supposedly it's the percentage of possible scenarios based on polls that result in candidates winning. They'll throw some weighting into the mix too to make certain "more likely" scenarios, well, more likely.

Given the polls have lurched Trumps way over the last week, it's not surprising the stats have changed

Objection?

vote for?

He doesn't need to do that to reap gains from having called it. If the other models give 1-2% to Trump and his around 40%, then he'll be known for his warnings and high probability given to Trump beforehand.

it's funny because i've throughout the summer said that nate silver is an idiot for trusting polls with evident methodological flaws. ie not accounting for shame factor, not accounting for different turnout rates this time than last time etc. you would have to remove probably 90 % of all polls from his data if you looked into their methodology.

science is not just quantitative thinking but also qualitative thinking. the latter is just as important as quantity/statistical power.

>raw data
once again, scientific thinking is not just to look at numbers, but how the numbers were obtained. the quality behind the numbers.

nate silver is such a fool.

what is he going to do? his method is so faulty he can't project anything. if trump win tomorrow why is that? because he got lucky nate will say, because that's what his model tells him. the thought that his model is flawed obviously hasn't occurred to him yet.

What exactly changed? His odds went up but Nevada went blue and none of the states' odds went toward Trump. Did he just fix the numbers or something?

wait what? so nevada was red on his chart and he had 33% chance to win, now nevada is set to blue but hes 36%?

this guy

There's no way to test the interpretations until the election is over though. And by the time the next one rolls around things will have changed enough to need new tweaks and so on.

I think the overall odds vary depending on how much time is left before election day. He tries to predict how polls will change before the people vote, and adjusts the overall percentage accordingly. Now that there's no time left for Trump's support to vanish, the overall percentage is more in line with the polls

Who else /colorblind/ here?

Seriously I have no idea what's going on.

>Alaska
>red

>hurr hurr it's tightening/widening
The polls have generally stabilised, Nate's model is sensitive to new polls that he counts as highly-rated.

how well is trump really doing? Spirit Cooking appears too dank for comfortable normies to really believe. I talked to a christian refugee on the run from the muslims and he nearly threw up. How fucked is America right now? are there still people stupid enough to ignore Assange's warning?

I'm not a religious man, but I had a horrifying dream last night, and five crows flew overhead when I went outside to have my morning coffee.

could be blue but underperforming in key demographics. there's so much riding on this that they know when bloc's come in down to the minute. they'll lie and bargain to the last one. never lose hope.

michigan goes red

obama ignored them during the flint water crisis

you'll see

I mostly want Trump to win so we don't have to see these (((polls))) in future elections

I don't understand how his calculations work but this is why Nevada is blueish now.

what's your deficiency? because I'm a graphic designer and I tried it with filters for red green and blue insensitivity and it stayed pretty clear.

Listen to this leaf, we are close buds with the southern non gay canucks, they know us Michifags

you're right.
the models are actually not that bad in their own right. the problem is the raw data going in is garbage, and sometimes people apply their personal/biased fudge(packer) factors into the data to make it suit their beliefs