So here's a quick run down of Trumps chances

So here's a quick run down of Trumps chances.

They're pretty fucking great, before he only had one clear shot at 270 and now he has multiple.

Early Voting shows him at an advantage EVERYWHERE apart from Nevada.

Let's break the states down

Original swing states that are now guaranteed for Trump:

>Ohio
>Iowa

The main states everyone talks about:

>Florida = Trump overperforming and Hillary underperforming. Obama only won Florida because of his 250,000 early lead among early voters, Clinton doesn't have anywhere near to that. For reference, Obama only won Florida by 0.9%. Florida is likely to go Trump
>North Carolina = Lock for Trump. Clinton is underperforming significantly compared to Obama and Trump is performing right around what Romney was at. For reference, Romney won North Carolina.

If Trump loses either, it's kinda over. But thankfully, it doesn't look like he will

The recent headline state:

>Nevada = The only real takeaways are that both Democrats and Republicans are overperforming from 2012 by about the same percentage but the REAL story is the huge surge of Independent votes and Hispanic votes. The former benefits Trump and the latter benefits Clinton. No real way to call this state, guess we'll have to wait and see. I think consistent polling has shown Trump ahead and given the huge gap between Trump and Clinton within indies and this state could still, go for Trump. It's not even close to over like recent concern shills have claimed.

Keep in mind, if Trump loses Nevada but picks up Colorado/Michigan (and)or Pennsylvania, he still wins.

Now, the other states Trump likely needs to win

>New Hampshire
>Maine 2nd

TL;DR It's a tight race, no denying it. All the meme electoral collages with 300 Clinton or Trump are delusional imo. If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, Michigan or Colorado, it's over. If Trump loses NC or Florida, it's over. If both of them win their must-win states then it will come down to Nevada/New Hampshire and Maine 2nd district

Other urls found in this thread:

westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/what-i-saw-at-the-coup/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

ok?

Florida is what I worry about.

Can he win without it?

Nice go trump give her hell lock her up eliminate the pedophiles elitist scum in our government.

Bump

666 get fuck leafs fuck Clinton fuck white Ppl

Fuck leafs

look at this guy

still using logic to attempt to explain a broken system

it's all fake you cockmuncher, get real with yourself and what's occurring around you

Doesn't seem like it. Also, if this year goes like any previous elections Florida will be one of the last states called because the vote is so close. It's gonna be a tense night for sure.

Yeah but he would need either PA and Colorado, or Michigan, Nevada, and Colorado

Yes

The latino voter turnup is off the chart, no way he's getting florida. I think he's gonna suprise us with a Pennsylvania victory.

>MI red
>+4.6 clinton
>GA is +4.6 trump but it's totally not a tossup

guys get a little smart

Cubans aren't Mexicans. There's a reason his primary win there was so overwhelming

Having said that, Trump has a good shot at Florida. Dems are ahead in early voting, but only by about 30,000 votes out of nearly 5 million. Early voting is basically done now, and republicans usually have higher turnout on election day than during early voting. Further, independents are leaning more heavily towards Trump this year than they did towards Romney four years ago. Hispanic turnout is also up substantially, but Trump has the highest support among hispanic voters of any Republican candidate ever (it's at over 40% now according to the LA Times tracking poll).

I have great faith in The Most Powerful Race to clench this election for Trump.

What time do the results start coming in tomorrow?

7:30 or so, per timezone

Thanks based op, you gave me hope again.

>mfw

No. Hilldog got that shit rigged in Brownie County!

Not close in NH, definitely not taking PA, probably not taking Nevada.

Good night, alt-right.

Agree with OPs analysis. Florida and New Hampshire are must-wins. If Trump wins FL, he most likely has it. But it will be a nail biter.

Capped.

he's leading as much in NV as clinton is in NH.

Florida here. Sleep tight.

We got this. Do your part NH, PA, CO. Do your part.

NV is very close so I'm not calling it - but early voting (not exactly reflected in polls) has given Clinton a modest lead.

is that pm or am?
also checked

Shadilay, brother! Praise KEK

Trump wins FL, PA, MI, CO, NH, NC

Trump Loses a squeaker in NV. Cap this post. Working class whites carry the day and blacks don't show up

pm, nigga.

Capped

Colorado? You're joking.
Capped though, see you in 36 hours

If the country pulls where the national polls are showing, it'll be clinton.
Florida not being a must-win for her is a really bad sign for trump.

So this is what the world famous british delusion looks like.

...

thats thinking labour had a chance in the last general election

I'm gonna steal.

Yep, The same British delusion that said Brexit would win.

Georgia 18.8% chance for Hillary
Pennsylvania 23.6% Trump
Michigan 22.4% Trump

Its all about the momentum and the brexit effect.

Its still a 65/35 favour to Hillary.
150% higher participation compared to 2012 in FL.

>brexit
one bad set of polling does not create a trend.
the fact that that's what you're relying on shows just how dire this is.

YALLA! Remember early voting only shows party affiliation.

...

>ONE BAD SET

I guess I'll just ignore how Hillary lost 13 points, then gained 7 all in one fucking week with nothing but negative scandles on her.
fuk of m8

Spending every waking minute of every long, exhausting day hoping you have got this, Florida. If Florida does go red, know that I will toast to you specifically, user, at my Trump Victory party, here in England.

polls fluctuating isn't exactly an uncommon thing.
The polls the day before the election have never been wrong by more than two points. that's much more of a trend than your single event.

>every map shows NH red
its not a foregone conclusion, lobsterback.
>PA red
this might even be more likely than NH red, this year.

>elections that favor substantially increased turnout amongst working class whites aren't comparable
>candidates that are socially stigmatized amongst the educated classes in a way incomparable to previous elections can't possibly lead to biased polls

Trump is almost certainly polling a few percent below his real numbers. How many percent is debatable. He only needs like 1-2% bias to win though

For whatever it's worth, IBD was the most accurate poll in 2012.

>almost certainly
that's a fucking stretch. the national average is +2.6 clinton as well, so he would need more than that.

>Florida will be one of the last states called because the vote is so close. It's gonna be a tense night for sure.

Gonna be more than tense. sewer-dwelling (D)ems are gonna come out and muck up the streets as soon as the sun goes down. "Whose winning" doesn't even matter - they have been told to go ahead and do damage regardless...

This "election" isn't about votes any more - it's about fear, violence, and consequences. Ballots are secondary...

Blood in the streets will be required.

Stop being such a faggy drama queen and just accept Hillary is more likely to win

Jesus I knew you were pathetic but this

I don't understand why the winner gets the whole state
The way I see it every state should have a system like Maine and Nebraska
Why isn't it like this

>Stop being such a faggy drama queen and just accept Hillary is more likely to win

Id10t - it's not about the ballots any more - the globalists are pushing the violence aspect. I live in NC and I can tell you that the #BLM pack around Charlotte are buzzin about going out and raisin hell ***REGARDLESS*** of who it looks like is winning. If this is also true in Philly, Chicago, &etc other (D)emocratich shithold cities, then the insurrection is already a guaranteed part of the festivities... IOTW it's gonna be fukked no matter what.

That's not drama. That's just a reality with a growing probability of coming to pass.

Because this way they can disenfranchise up to 49% of the state.

If Florida goes red I'm not taking my cholesterol meds and getting shitfaced tomorrow

Good analysis. One thing I would say though is that I'm not as convinced it'll be that tight. With everything we've learned from early voting, Brexit, flawed polling methodologies and so on I don't think 300 EC votes for Trump is too wild. Pic related is a prediction I came up with recently, it's basically the same as you but with Trump winning every state you reckon is in play.

As a side note I'm not even particularly pro-Trump, I'd probably end up voting dude weed if I was a yank.

Nice "democracy"

Hilarious. Capped. If I don't read about post-election murders then I'm coming back to call you a cuck.

I will give trump a 10% chance of winning.
Would be cool if he did a landslide, but I don't know.

>being this stupid believing soros paid polls.
LMAO

Because Dems would lose if every state splits its votes by district. Dems tend to cluster in cities and have little to no presence in rural areas. If Maine didn't have this system, Dems would get all its electoral votes.

I think NM has a bigger chance of going red than CO,
unless the hispanics really fuck NM up

Then why is a system that blatantly favors one side being used?

>If I don't read about post-election murders then I'm coming back to call you a cuck.

Im a "cuck" because I support whites taking arms against the fuckwit niggers and idiots progs that are going to come out tomorrow night and riot?

Read it, bitch - westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/what-i-saw-at-the-coup/

Maybe then you'll understand what they're pushing for... because it's a lot more than an "election".

>1 disctrict = 1 vote
>districts with 5000 people == districts with 100 people

The other guy is overly dramatic and possibly eating tin foil, but I am sure that there will be riots, regardless of the victor.
Hillary supporters are paid instigators and violent. Granted, not all of them, but they're numerous enough.

I seriously think he will win NM.

>A fucking swede claiming Florida will go blue
Floridafag here to confirm you're a dumbfuck who has no idea what he's talking about. Florida will be red.

>Hillary supporters are paid instigators and violent. Granted, not all of them, but they're numerous enough.

Bingo. And they know that the more chaos there is, the more free reign they'll have to maneuver politically... i.e. court challenges to the outcomes in certain states, I.E. Florida in 2000 - or were you in fucking diapers back then?

They're gonna try to Trayvon this election... you fuckin watch.

> USA democracy
we are a representative republic you dumb greasy guinea dago wop

THE STATES send representatives to washington to represent the voters, we dont elect the president by the demos.

we have the house of representatives to represent the people directly, and even then, the second place candidate for congress is a LOSER, he doesnt get a vote in the house based on his % of the electorate

ignorant morons like yourself who cant grasp the basics of a representative form should be barred from voting.

I wouldn't be surprised. I really hope Trump wins to make national identity popular again before the destabilization is complete in Europe. I'd rather deport blacks and muslims rather than have a full blown war and utter slaughter in here.

>They're gonna try to Trayvon this election... you fuckin watch.

Screencap this shit...because it's the reality we're facing. They're gonna gin up protests and challenge the election results in court everywhere Trump wins... it's going to be a monumental mess, and THATS EXACTLY HOW THEY WANT IT

You're potentially right, there's not that much separating them. For what it's worth I think Nate Palladium says CO is more likely.

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what's for lunch; this is why the US is meant to be a constitutional republic. Democracy doesn't have much intrinsic value in and of itself.

>Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what's for lunch;

Democracy is the tyranny of the majority. It is more cruel, more destructive, and less compassionate than any single tyrant could ever possibly be...

I do vote, in my own democracy
It's based on the assumption that the will of the people is absolute, it does have intrinsic value

Please stop, my sides hurt.

I know you guys are all talk. Obama was elected TWICE and what happened? Nothing.

You underestimate tyrants don't you?

>It's based on the assumption that the will of the people is absolute, it does have intrinsic value


"Democracy" has no intrinsic value outside the Rule of Law. Does a lynch mob had legitimacy just because everyone in the mob agrees that someone should be hanged?

That's the lynchpin case against "democracy", right there. No matter how many people agree that something is good or necessary, it cannot be done legitimately without the authority of Law. That is why we need a Constitution and an impartial Law to begin with.

Otherwise, you have chaos at the whim of the mob...

> stop being a drama queen
the democrats have been fomenting violence all year

they are preparing for, and instigating violence to destabilize the nation and convince the foolish urban plebs to vote for "stability" in the form of their bitch goddess hillary

when trump wins, there is a 100% chance of chimpouts, followed by 4 years of "he dindu nuffin" and turgid memorials to every fallen nigger, endless prosecutions of police officers for shooting a raging ape, and more "hashtag black lives matter" bullshit

they are counting on the next election swinging their way after convincing the morons (like yourself) that the chimpouts represent "racist oppression" because trump will not "give them space to destroy" (thanks stephanie rawlins-blake, mayor of baltimore, and worthless she-boon)

they wont come to my town with their bullshit, country boys dont take no lip from worthless shifty city niggers.

frankly, i wish a nigga would.
i got some new guns i havent "field tested" yet.

>It's based on the assumption that the will of the people is absolute, it does have intrinsic value
>51% of people vote to kill remaining 49%
>The vote was democratic! It has value and must be adhered to!
It is useful under certain circumstances, but muh will of the people is not a justification for tyrannical behaviour.

>You underestimate tyrants don't you?


Not at all. That's why nothing substantial has happened so far. Without real, popular support, a tyranny cannot be overturned. But they keep pushing, and they will get their come-uppance...

>Does a lynch mob had legitimacy just because everyone in the mob agrees that someone should be hanged?
This entire post so much

Clinton is going to kill Trump in super blue states, though. That's going to pad her numbers to the point where a 2% Clinton popular vote victory is likely an electoral loss.

I want Trump to win so bad. I want to see John Oliver and Trevor Noah's faces. I want see CNN's damage control. I want to see niggers and spics whine on social media. I want to see Lena Dunham eat herself to death. If Trump wins it will be the most satisfying feeling in the history of America. I could die happy.

The bigger mob always wins, that's what always happens in the world, it's inevitable
How are the 49% gonna react when the 51% decide to take matters into their own hands and proceed to make their will reality regardless of the law?
A tyranny can only be overturned with violence, there is no alternative
And there are two methods
One is with the military, the other is with the people
The one with the people is more difficult but has better results, after all a tyrant won't kill an angry majority, otherwise there are no more people to rule over

I thought Nevada was in the bag....

>Clinton is going to kill Trump in super blue states, though.

Super-Blue states may find themselves having "supply problems" after this election.

Fukkin Holodomor goes both ways, and those city bitches can't raise their own food. Hell most city dwellers are totally and utterly worthless anyways.

After trucks start getting shot up when delivering to Blue Cities, the food stops flowing...

Fukem. Let me starve.

> I do vote, in my own democracy
> failing to grasp the simple concept i elucidated.

luigi, you dim witted cunt, you should NOT be allowed to vote, because you display a staggering level of ignorance in basic civics.

Protip: italy is also a representative republic, just a broken one.
you dont vote for prime minister, the members of parliament you elect do that.

the fact that italy allows idiots like you the vote is why they are circling the drain.

>Super-Blue states may find themselves having "supply problems" after this election.

All hypothetically, of course.

It's all hypothetical, until someone gets hurt.

Just like all military actions are "training exercises" and "drills" until they aren't...

Oes this factor in those 2 electors in Washington (I think) who won't vote Hillary?

The prime minister in Italy has no real power except a representative one
Besides Italy is a democratic republic, it's the first words of the first article of the constitution

Most states Trump wins he'll do so by 5% or less. The only states he'll get a huge majority in are the low populated ones. Clinton will get a landslide in most strong blue states. This is why Clinton is winning national polls. Trump will win the electoral college, but Clinton will just about scrape the popular vote because of states like New York and California.

Washington doesn't divide its EVs, what are you on about?

Regardless of what happens in reality, the law and constitution of a country must work soundly in theory. Abandon that ideal and we may as well just revert to primitivism.

Also, if it was 90% voting to kill 10%, would that be right?

I'm aware of the fact I'm on Sup Forums, but do you genuinely think that the atrocities of the Nazi regime were justified because the Nazis became the biggest party democratically?

Jesus, dude. Me too. I have so much invested in this...

Fuck.

MAGA, PLEASE.

I honestly do, it's why I hate scapegoating a single person as responsible in democracies, there were people who elected that person, they knew what they were doing
Now, if you want to get into whether or not they actually did anything wrong/bad, that is a completely different matter

Keep this thread bumped and someone repost the OP if need be. It's the only sensible thing on the board at the moment.

>MAGA, PLEASE.

It's not even about believing that Trump is so great...

It's about knowing that Clinton is that EVIL.

I know at least half a dozen men, willing to spend themselves to ensure that she never enters upon the office of president.

When fringe positions like that even enter the discussion, you know shits about to get real...

So when VA goes red this year will you feel retarded?

SHE DIED FOR NOTHING.
(bumb)
Can the next Op have a list of traditional Democrat and Republican states?

>So when VA goes red this year will you feel retarded?

When you *publicly* hang McAuliffe, we will consider you rehabilitated.